Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, while the Shanghai Central Enterprises 50 Index fell by 0.72%, closing at 1806.12 points with a trading volume of 93.634 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Central Enterprises 50 Index has increased by 2.24% over the past month, 6.69% over the past three months, and 2.24% year-to-date [1] - The index is composed of the top 50 listed companies controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Ministry of Finance, based on average market capitalization and trading volume over the past year [1] Index Composition - The top ten weighted companies in the Shanghai Central Enterprises 50 Index are: China Merchants Bank (11.04%), Yangtze Power (7.04%), CITIC Securities (5.83%), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (5.26%), Bank of Communications (4.15%), Agricultural Bank of China (3.94%), SMIC (3.63%), Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (3.29%), China Shenhua Energy (2.55%), and China State Construction Engineering (2.42%) [1] - The index is fully represented by companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1] Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index includes: Finance (41.47%), Industry (22.86%), Public Utilities (10.67%), Energy (7.50%), Communication Services (6.37%), Information Technology (5.14%), Materials (3.42%), Consumer Discretionary (1.37%), and Real Estate (1.19%) [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - New samples are prioritized for inclusion if they rank within the top 40, while existing samples ranked within the top 60 are generally retained [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese financial industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by new regulatory measures aimed at tightening monetary policy and mitigating systemic financial risks, particularly in the areas of internet lending and shadow banking [1][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued guidelines on July 15 to strengthen financial risk prevention, marking a new phase of tightened monetary policy [1]. - New regulations significantly increase the required contribution of banks in joint lending from 30% to 70%, effectively reducing the leverage of internet platforms [2]. - The regulations also target shadow banking, which had a scale of approximately 25.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, accounting for 19.7% of GDP [4]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Institutions - Major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank are adjusting their strategies, with ICBC halting joint lending with 10 internet platforms [2]. - Smaller banks are particularly affected, with internet loan income constituting an average of 17.3% of their operating revenue, and some exceeding 30% [5]. - Banks are responding by tightening their investment in non-standard assets and focusing on compliance and risk management [4][5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The adjustments are expected to lead to a healthier and more sustainable financial ecosystem, with improved transparency in fund flows and more reasonable risk pricing [5]. - Analysts predict that the overall non-performing loan ratio in the banking sector will decrease to around 1.2% by 2026 following the adjustment period [5]. - The regulatory changes are part of a broader systemic effort to reduce financial leverage and prevent risks, with 23 significant policy documents issued since 2021 [4][5]. Group 4: Balancing Act - The new regulations reflect the regulatory authorities' commitment to balancing financial openness with risk prevention amid increasing global economic uncertainties [7]. - The adjustment process is expected to be ongoing, requiring adaptation from all market participants [7].

以银行股为代表的红利资产，除了保险资金不断举牌加仓外，公募基金也在增配。 近日，公募基金二季度持仓公布，主动权益类基金持有银行股的占比上升了0.9个百分点，非银金融持仓也提高了0.6个百分点，不过相对于 行业配置基准（行业市值占全A市值的比例）仍有空间。目前银行股的股息率仍然突出，平均市净率PB也低于1，但出于对净息差收窄和地 产下行拖累的担忧，市场对银行股的看法也存在分歧。 值得注意的是，当险资频频举牌银行H股，公募基金也开始增配， 部分银行股的A/H价差收窄，招商银行A/H价格倒挂，邮储银行、民生银 行等A/H溢价率大幅收窄，考虑到港股通20%或28%的红利税成本，后续在具体个股和A/H股的选择上，资金偏好可能有所分化。 金融股持仓比例提升 整体上，主动权益类基金在二季度明显增配了银行股和非银金融（券商、保险等），保险资金也在港股市场上频繁举牌银行股，但局部上一 些资金也获利了结，关于银行股的共识与分歧已经出现。 比如中泰资管的百亿基金经理姜诚，二季度就小幅减仓工商银行、招商银行，不过这两只银行股仍是他管理的中泰星元灵活配置混合A前十 大重仓股。姜诚一直认为选择红利股的关键不仅是股息率高，而且有持续且稳定 ...

Core Insights - The public fund's second quarter report for 2025 reveals a total of 2,917 A-share companies held, with a total market value of approximately 25,837 billion yuan, a decrease of about 50 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [1][2] Industry Distribution - The electronics industry has the highest market value among the sectors, totaling approximately 4,392 billion yuan, followed by power equipment, food and beverage, pharmaceutical biology, and banking, each exceeding 2,000 billion yuan [1][2] - Significant increases in holdings were observed in the communication and banking sectors, with both seeing an increase of over 400 billion yuan, while the food and beverage sector experienced the largest decrease, dropping over 500 billion yuan [1][2] Changes in Holdings - The top ten heavy stocks include Ningde Times with a holding value of about 1,426 billion yuan and Kweichow Moutai at approximately 1,252 billion yuan [3] - The report indicates a shift in fund allocation towards TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and financial real estate sectors, with notable increases in communication and banking sub-sectors, while automotive and food and beverage sectors faced reductions [3][4] Strategic Insights - The electronics sector's strong performance is attributed to multiple driving factors, including the acceleration of national technology self-sufficiency strategies and the deepening of semiconductor domestic substitution [4] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests a structural evolution towards a dual focus on "technology growth and value safety," with continued interest in electronics and semiconductors, while undervalued blue-chip stocks in banking and non-bank financial sectors are expected to provide stability and defensive characteristics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The financial industry is increasingly focusing on resisting "involution-style" competition, with institutions like Ping An Bank taking proactive measures to address this issue and promote sustainable business practices [2][4]. Group 1: Ping An Bank's Actions - On July 22, Ping An Bank held a meeting to outline its business development plan and promote the signing of commitment letters against "involution-style" competition among its over 2,000 employees [2]. - In Q1 2025, Ping An Bank reported a revenue of 33.709 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%, and a net profit of 14.096 billion, down 5.6% [2]. - The bank's total assets reached 57.8 trillion at the end of Q1, reflecting a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the end of the previous year [2]. Group 2: Industry-Wide Trends - The Guangdong Banking Association has established a "1+3+N" system to combat "involution-style" competition, which includes a negative list from regulatory bodies and self-regulatory measures from various business sectors [4]. - The Guangdong Financial Regulatory Bureau has publicly opposed "involution-style" competition and is working on self-regulatory agreements to guide the industry [4]. Group 3: Broader Industry Context - The call for resisting "involution" is gaining traction nationwide, with provinces like Fujian and Anhui issuing self-regulatory agreements to prevent malicious competition and ensure compliance with regulatory requirements [5]. - In Shenzhen, despite being a major financial hub, there has been no clear stance from local regulators on "involution" competition, although the banking sector's total assets reached 13.57 trillion, growing by 1.37% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Measures and Market Impact - The implementation of the "reporting and execution consistency" policy in the insurance sector aims to standardize market practices and curb harmful competition, resulting in a 30% reduction in average commission levels in certain channels [6]. - The banking sector is facing significant pressure on profitability, with net interest margins declining to approximately 1.43% in Q1 2025, leading to concerns about the sustainability of business models [7]. Group 5: Responses to Challenges - Strategies proposed by industry leaders include international expansion, diversification of revenue sources, and the use of artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency [8]. - There are differing opinions on the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures, with some industry professionals arguing that the root cause of the issue lies in the high degree of market homogeneity rather than just pricing strategies [8].

基金季报 sHuangjin 权益仓位整体下降，增配银行、通信；减配食品饮料、汽车 ――公募权益类基金 2025 年二季报持仓分析 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 7 月 24 日 证券分析师 宋旸 songyang@bhzq.com 022-28451131 张笑晨 SAC NO：S1150525070001 zhangxc@bhzq.com 022-23839033 相关研究报告 权 益 市场 主要 指数 延续 上 涨，科创债成为 ETF 资金配 置的主要方向—公募基金周 报 2025.07.21 房地产领涨行业，宽基指数 资金净流出规模收窄―公募 基金周报 2025.07.14 宽基指数资金大幅流出，主 动权益基金仓位上升——公 募基金周报 2025.07.07 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 13 基 金 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 | 1. 权益基金规模、仓位及板块分布情况 4 | | --- | | 1.1 被动指数基金持续高速增长，主动权益类基金仓位水平大体持平 4 | | 1.2 港交所与创业板增配显 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, consistent with the previous rating [6]. Core Insights - The impact of the current "anti-involution" trend on credit is expected to be small overall, but slightly greater than the effects observed during the supply-side reform period from 2015 to 2017 [11][12]. - Credit management is a crucial tool for banks in responding to supply-side reforms, primarily through reducing credit exposure to overcapacity industries and refining client lists to limit loan amounts [12][13]. - The report suggests that the current banking environment is facing a credit slowdown, which may amplify the impact of "anti-involution" on credit growth [13]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on banks such as Xiamen Bank, Chongqing Bank, Yucheng Rural Commercial Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Shanghai Agricultural Bank, as well as major state-owned banks [2][57]. Historical Context and Data Analysis - During the supply-side reform period, the year-on-year growth rates of RMB credit were 14%, 13.5%, and 13.5% from 2015 to 2017, with social financing growth rates of 12.5%, 12.6%, and 14.8% respectively, indicating limited impact on credit pulses [12][13]. - The analysis shows that the impact of supply-side reform on credit was less than 1%, with a more significant effect on joint-stock banks compared to state-owned banks [18][22]. Credit Management and Asset Quality - Credit management during the supply-side reform led to a notable increase in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios in overcapacity industries, with a significant rise in overall NPL ratios for listed banks in the second half of 2016 [13][32]. - The report indicates that the "anti-involution" trend may lead to a similar, albeit slightly larger, impact on credit quality compared to the previous reforms, particularly affecting private enterprises more than state-owned ones [11][45]. Industry Trends and Projections - The report highlights that the proportion of private enterprises in the affected industries has increased compared to the supply-side reform period, suggesting that credit control measures may disproportionately impact these firms [45]. - It notes that the current banking sector is experiencing a degree of asset scarcity, which could further exacerbate the effects of credit management policies [45][46].

- The total number of quantitative funds in the market reached 604 by the end of Q2 2025, with an increase of 53 funds compared to Q1 2025. The total fund size amounted to 2854.39 billion yuan, marking a quarter-on-quarter growth of 144.46 billion yuan, or 5.33%[159] - Quantitative funds are categorized into active funds, index-enhanced funds, and hedging funds. Active funds accounted for 894.30 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 8.48%. Index-enhanced funds reached 1908.69 billion yuan, growing by 4.29% quarter-on-quarter. Hedging funds totaled 51.39 billion yuan, showing a decline of 7.15% quarter-on-quarter[160][159] - Among active quantitative funds, the top fund by size was "招商量化精选A" (49.01 billion yuan), followed by "国金量化多因子" (43.40 billion yuan) and "信诚多策略" (34.41 billion yuan). The top 10 funds collectively accounted for 56.05% of the market[164][165] - Active quantitative funds tracking broad-based indices showed strong performance in Q2 2025. For example, "诺安多策略" achieved an excess return of 19.58% and "汇安多策略A" delivered an excess return of 14.67%[166] - Industry-themed active quantitative funds also performed well, with "东吴智慧医疗量化策略A" achieving an excess return of 20.77% and "浙商大数据智选消费A" delivering an excess return of 14.57%[169] - Smart-beta active quantitative funds tracking indices like 中证红利 and 中证国企红利 showed notable excess returns, with "富国中证红利指数增强A" achieving an excess return of 3.94%[179] - Index-enhanced funds reached a total size of 1908.69 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2025. The largest fund was "易方达上证50增强A" with a size of 183.15 billion yuan[172][175] - Among index-enhanced funds, broad-based funds tracking indices like 中证A500 and 国证2000 showed strong excess returns, with "银华中证全指医药卫生增强" achieving an excess return of 4.04%[176] - Hedging quantitative funds totaled 51.39 billion yuan by the end of Q2 2025. The largest fund was "汇添富绝对收益策略A" with a size of 28.00 billion yuan[180][181] - Absolute return rankings for hedging funds in Q2 2025 showed "中邮绝对收益策略" leading with a return of 2.70%, followed by "富国量化对冲策略三个月A" with a return of 2.65%[184] - In Q2 2025, 58 new quantitative funds were established, including 50 index-enhanced funds. The total issuance size was 241.15 billion yuan, marking an increase of 57.95 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter[185]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the overall market value of A - share holdings of active equity - oriented funds decreased, while that of H - share holdings increased. The industry concentration of the top heavy - stock holdings of equity - oriented funds decreased. The communication, non - bank finance, and media industries saw significant increases in allocation ratios, while the steel, food and beverage, and coal industries had large reduction ratios [4][6]. - The structure of the top heavy - stocks of active equity - oriented funds changed. The overall number of large - market - cap leaders decreased, and the holdings of sub - industry leaders increased. The new high - growth technology stocks related to AI emerged, while traditional large - cap white - horse stocks were significantly reduced [4]. - In terms of industry leaders, the communication, non - bank finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care industries were significantly increased, while the steel, coal, real estate, social services, and food and beverage industries were significantly reduced [21]. - The report suggests focusing on four investment themes: communication and hardware upstream under AI diffusion, non - bank finance, new consumption in the Hong Kong stock market, and national defense and military industry [26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q2 Active Fund Heavy - Stock Holding Structure Overview - **A - share and H - share holdings changes**: In Q2 2025, the total market value of active equity - oriented fund heavy - stock holdings was 1736.2 billion yuan, a 1.66% QoQ decrease. A - share holdings decreased by 2.79% QoQ to 1394.8 billion yuan, while H - share holdings increased by 3.20% QoQ to 341.3 billion yuan. Due to the complex macro - economic environment and market volatility, funds faced redemption pressure and tended to reduce large - cap stocks with poor liquidity [6]. - **Industry concentration decline**: From Q1 to Q2 2025, the industry concentration of the heavy - stock holdings of equity - oriented funds decreased. CR3 decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 38.37%, and CR5 decreased by 4.18 percentage points to 51.18%. The top five industries in terms of holding market value remained the same, but the proportion of the electronics industry increased, while the other four industries decreased [4][7]. - **Structural adjustment of industry holdings**: In Q2 2025, 12 industries saw an increase in the total market value of holdings. The communication, non - bank finance, and media industries had large increases in allocation ratios, rising by 75.88%, 64.62%, and 38.37% respectively. The steel, food and beverage, and coal industries had large reduction ratios, decreasing by 46.32%, 26.16%, and 23.99% respectively [9] 3.2 Q2 Active Fund Top Heavy - Stock Tracking - **Change in the structure of top heavy - stocks**: In Q2 2025, the structure of the top 20 heavy - stocks of active equity - oriented funds changed. The large - market - cap leaders decreased, and the sub - industry leaders increased. The market value of the top 20 heavy - stocks accounted for 20.72% of all heavy - stocks, a 2% decrease from Q1 [12]. - **Changes in the top five heavy - stocks**: The top five heavy - stocks remained the same, but the overall holdings decreased. New high - growth technology stocks such as New Fiber Optic Technology and Inphi Corporation quickly rose in the rankings, while traditional large - cap white - horse stocks such as Luxshare Precision Industry, Midea Group, and Contemporary Amperex Technology were significantly reduced [4]. - **Hong Kong stock market adjustment**: In the Hong Kong stock market, AI and Internet media leaders were reduced, while the pharmaceutical and new consumption sectors that performed well in Q2 were significantly increased [18] 3.3 Q2 Industry Leader Heavy - Stock Tracking - **Industry leader allocation changes**: In Q2 2025, the communication, non - bank finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care industries were significantly increased, while the steel, coal, real estate, social services, and food and beverage industries were significantly reduced [21]. - **Communication industry focus**: Driven by the booming demand for AI hardware, the communication industry became the focus of funds. The optical module sector, which benefits from the expansion of AI capital expenditure, was the main area for increasing communication heavy - stocks. The profitability of communication equipment is expected to continue to improve in the second half of the year [22]. - **Non - bank finance sector highlights**: The leaders of the non - bank finance sector attracted attention. The holdings of Ping An Insurance and CPIC increased by 55% and 41% respectively, and securities leaders such as Citic Securities and Huatai Securities also saw over 30% increases. The brokerage sector's performance is expected to continue to improve [23] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **AI diffusion - related communication and hardware upstream**: The significant increase in the holdings of optical module leaders reflects that funds are extending from AI software to computing infrastructure. AI capital expenditure is expected to drive the performance of upstream sectors in the second half of the year [26]. - **Non - bank finance sector**: The concentrated increase in holdings of leaders such as Citic Securities and Ping An Insurance reflects the positive expectations of the market for the profitability improvement of the brokerage and insurance sectors. The non - bank finance sector is expected to achieve a resonance of valuation repair and performance recovery [26]. - **Hong Kong stock new consumption theme**: After the correction in the AI sector, funds refocused on consumption structure highlights, especially in the Hong Kong stock market. Sub - sectors such as pets, toys, and emotional consumption have become important directions for heavy - stock allocation [26]. - **National defense and military industry safety theme**: The significant increase in the holdings of core military stocks reflects the high attention of institutions to the "national security + high - end manufacturing" theme. The military industry has policy support, order growth, and mid - report performance improvement expectations, with medium - term allocation value [27]

Key Insights - The report highlights a focus on the humanoid robot industry, which has seen a significant increase in market attention, with the National Securities Robot Industry Index rising by 7.6% from July 7 to July 18, 2025 [6][8] - Major factors driving this resurgence include substantial orders from leading companies, capital acquisitions, influential statements from industry leaders, and supportive government policies aimed at fostering innovation in humanoid robotics [7][8] - The report also notes that the active equity fund median position reached 90.63% in Q2 2025, indicating a historical high and a shift towards increased allocations in TMT, Hong Kong stocks, and machinery sectors [9][10] Humanoid Robot Industry - The humanoid robot market is experiencing a revival, with key players like China Mobile placing significant orders, which serve as a validation of product functionality and market readiness [6][7] - The report identifies a trend of increased capital activity, with companies pursuing mergers and acquisitions to enhance their market positions [7] - Government initiatives are also playing a crucial role, with policies aimed at promoting the development of humanoid robots and related technologies [8] Active Equity Fund Analysis - The report indicates that the highest allocation sectors for active equity funds in Q2 2025 were TMT (23.37%), Hong Kong stocks (20.41%), and machinery (19.68%), reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [9][10] - The report emphasizes that the current allocation levels are above historical averages for several sectors, indicating a bullish sentiment among fund managers [9][10] AI Computing Industry - The AI computing supply chain is entering a phase of maturity, driven by advancements in generative AI and large language models, leading to a closure of the demand-supply loop [11][12] - The report highlights that the infrastructure for AI computing is expected to see continued investment, with significant growth in demand for high-end AI servers [12][13] - The competition in the PCB industry is intensifying due to the rising demand for AI servers, with a projected 150% increase in demand for high-density interconnect (HDI) boards [13]