证券代码：600104 证券简称：上汽集团 公告编号：临 2024－047 上海汽车集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 会议召开时间：2024 年 10 月 31 日(星期四) 下午 14:00-15:00 会议召开地点 ：上海证券交易所上证路演中心（ 网址： https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 本次投资者说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2024 年第 三季度的经营成果及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流和 沟通，在信息披露允许的范围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 二、 说明会召开的时间、地点 （一） 会议召开时间：2024 年 10 月 31 日 下午 14:00-15:00 （二） 会议召开地点：上证路演中心 （三） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2024 年 10 月 24 日(星期四) 至 10 月 30 日(星期 三)16:00 前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The sales of new energy vehicles are steadily increasing, with a significant year-on-year growth of 38.26% in September, accounting for 41.28% of total sales [2] - The company is accelerating its expansion into overseas markets, achieving a 5.5% year-on-year increase in overseas sales during the first nine months of the year [2] - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is projected to be 10.976 billion, 11.997 billion, and 12.081 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.42, 13.19, and 13.10 times [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, the total sales volume was 313,000 vehicles, a decrease of 35.03% year-on-year [2] - New energy vehicle sales reached 129,000 units in September, marking a 38.26% increase year-on-year, with cumulative deliveries of 886,000 units from January to September, up 29.5% [2] Overseas Market Expansion - The company achieved 806,000 units in overseas deliveries from January to September, reflecting a 5.5% year-on-year growth [2] - The MG brand has delivered over 180,000 units in the European market, maintaining positive year-on-year growth [2] Financial Projections - The company’s projected operating revenue for 2024 is 569.37 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -21.60% [3] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 10.976 billion yuan, with a net profit growth rate of -22.19% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.95 yuan, with a PE ratio of 14.42 [3]

证券代码:600104 证券简称:上汽集团 公告编号:临 2024-046 上海汽车集团股份有限公司2024年9月份产销快报 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导怪陈述或者重大遗漏。并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 上海汽车集团股份有限公司2024年9月份产销快报数据如下: | 位 | | | | 社 量(辆) | | | | | 销 | 量(辆) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 東 | 本月数 | 去年 | 月度 | 本年 | 去年 | 累计 | 本月数 | 去年 | 月度 | 本年 | 去年 | 累计 | | | | 同期 | 同比 | 累计 | 累计 | 同比 | | 同期 | 同比 | 累计 | 累计 | 同比 | | 上汽大众 | 96,879 | 117,800 | -17.76% | 780,789 | 834,524 | -6.44% | 94,000 | 120,003 | -21.67% | 772,091 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 15.86 CNY [1] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a reported revenue of 277.086 billion CNY for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.628 billion CNY, down 6.5% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin and expense ratio are under pressure, but cash flow has significantly improved, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 11.317 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4] - Sales pressure from SAIC-GM affects investment income, while the transformation of joint venture brand structures continues. Investment income in Q2 was 5.727 billion CNY, up 79.5% year-on-year [4] - The company is set to launch new self-owned electric vehicle models in the second half of the year and is deepening its overseas market efforts to address challenges [4] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): 720,988 (2022A), 726,199 (2023A), 738,063 (2024E), 770,275 (2025E), 804,845 (2026E) [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): 16,118 (2022A), 14,106 (2023A), 13,974 (2024E), 14,087 (2025E), 15,483 (2026E) [4] - Earnings per share (CNY): 1.39 (2022A), 1.22 (2023A), 1.21 (2024E), 1.22 (2025E), 1.34 (2026E) [4] - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2023A to 11.0% in 2026E [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SAIC Motor (600104 SH) [7] Core Views - SAIC Motor's 2024 H1 revenue was RMB 284 69 billion, down 12 8% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 6 63 billion, down 6 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1 02 billion, down 82 0% YoY [2][5] - Despite intense market competition, the company demonstrated relatively stable profitability, with continuous optimization of its sales structure [2][5] - In Q2 2024, SAIC Motor's wholesale sales reached 993,000 units, down 15 9% YoY but up 19 0% QoQ, with passenger vehicle registrations at 565,000 units, down 29 2% YoY and 20 3% QoQ [5] - The company's Q2 2024 revenue was RMB 141 61 billion, down 21 6% YoY and 1 0% QoQ, while operating income was RMB 138 10 billion, down 21 4% YoY and 0 6% QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor's Q2 2024 net profit attributable to parent company was RMB 3 91 billion, down 9 0% YoY but up 44 2% QoQ, with a net profit margin of 2 8%, up 0 4pct YoY and 0 9pct QoQ [5] - The company's Q2 2024 automotive business gross margin was 8 2%, down 1 3pct YoY and 0 6pct QoQ, while the expense ratio was 10 4%, up 1 5pct YoY but down 0 2pct QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor's Q2 2024 investment income was RMB 5 73 billion, up 79 5% YoY and 108 0% QoQ, with joint venture investment income at RMB 0 04 billion, significantly declining both YoY and QoQ [5] - The company's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 310,000 units in Q2 2024, up 49 5% QoQ, while overseas market deliveries reached 279,000 units, up 3 7% QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor is accelerating its intelligent and electric vehicle layout, with technologies such as DMH super hybrid, full-stack 3 0 intelligent vehicle solutions, and solid-state batteries being rapidly commercialized [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 14 89 billion, RMB 15 61 billion, and RMB 16 72 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9 5X, 9 1X, and 8 5X [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - SAIC Motor's 2024E revenue is projected to be RMB 756 507 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 14 891 billion [12] - The company's 2025E revenue is expected to reach RMB 774 582 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 15 611 billion [12] - For 2026E, SAIC Motor's revenue is forecasted to be RMB 797 203 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 16 719 billion [12] - The company's 2024E EPS is projected to be RMB 1 29, with a P/E ratio of 9 55X and a P/B ratio of 0 47 [12] - SAIC Motor's 2025E EPS is expected to be RMB 1 35, with a P/E ratio of 9 11X and a P/B ratio of 0 45 [12] - The company's 2026E EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1 44, with a P/E ratio of 8 50X and a P/B ratio of 0 43 [12] Business Highlights - SAIC Motor's joint venture performance showed mixed results in Q2 2024, with SAIC Volkswagen sales at 264,000 units (down 4 7% YoY, up 6 4% QoQ), SAIC GM sales at 114,000 units (down 57 0% YoY, up 2 3% QoQ), and SAIC-GM-Wuling sales at 346,000 units (up 5 6% YoY, up 54 5% QoQ) [5] - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with a focus on consolidating its presence in Western Europe and South America while exploring emerging markets in Eastern Europe [5] - SAIC Motor has launched several new energy vehicle models, including the IM L6, Roewe D5X, and Buick GL8 plug-in hybrid, with the SAIC Volkswagen ID family achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units [6]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 上汽集团（600104） 8 月批发同比-39%，智己同比表现较佳 2024 年 09 月 10 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 744063 | 744705 | 676566 | 710977 | 776053 | | 同比（ % ） | (4.59) | 0.09 | (9.15) | 5.09 | 9.15 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 16118 | 14106 | 14465 | 14155 | 16504 | | 同比（ % ） | (34.30) | (12.48) | 2.54 | (2.14) | 16.60 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 1.39 | 1.22 ...

证券代码:600104 证券简称:上汽集团 公告编号:临 2024-045 | | | | | ম 量(辆) | | | | | 備 | 量(辆) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 車 位 | 本月数 | 去年 | 月度 | 本年 | 去年 | 累计 | 本月数 | 去年 | 月度 | 本年 | 去年 | 累计 | | | | 同期 | 同比 | 累计 | 累计 | 同比 | | 同期 | 同比 | 累计 | 累计 | 同比 | | 上汽大众 汽车有限公司 | 86,317 | 114,582 | -24.67% | 683,910 | 716,724 | -4.58% | 85,000 | 110,033 | -22.75% | 678,091 | 712,325 | -4.81% | | 上汽通用 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 汽车有限公司 | 14.319 | 83,585 | -82.87% | 235.430 | 622.483 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 12.55 CNY per share on August 29, 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 10/9/8 for the years 2024-2026 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 284.69 billion CNY for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.63 billion CNY, down 6.5% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 1.02 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 82.0% year-on-year [1][5]. - In Q2 2024, total revenue was 138.1 billion CNY, down 21.4% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 3.91 billion CNY, down 9.0% year-on-year but up 44.2% quarter-on-quarter [1][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its production and sales structure while accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles, achieving a 29.9% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle deliveries in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For H1 2024, the company’s total revenue was 284.69 billion CNY, with a net profit of 6.63 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion CNY [1][5]. - Q2 2024 saw total revenue of 138.1 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.91 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of -1.1 billion CNY [1][4]. Sales Performance - The company sold 993,000 vehicles in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.0%. However, the average selling price (ASP) decreased to 95,000 CNY, down 6.4% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][4]. Cost and Expenses - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 8.2%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to intensified price competition [1][4]. - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 4.4%, 3.3%, 2.7%, and 0.2%, respectively, with slight variations compared to the previous quarter [1][4]. Investment and Future Outlook - The company’s investment income for Q2 2024 was 5.73 billion CNY, significantly impacted by losses from joint ventures, particularly from General Motors [1][5]. - The report anticipates revenue growth for 2024-2026, projecting revenues of 706.7 billion CNY, 706.7 billion CNY, and 779.9 billion CNY, with net profits of 14.13 billion CNY, 15.30 billion CNY, and 17.22 billion CNY, respectively [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 17.84 [1][10][11] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term performance impacts due to inventory reduction, but there are expectations for a new transformation within the group [1][4] - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for H1 2024, with a focus on reducing channel inventory pressure and managing dealer financial risks [2][3] - The management is undergoing significant adjustments to drive internal strategic transformation, aiming for a robust recovery in the coming years [4][8] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 284.69 billion, down 12.82% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 6.628 billion, down 6.45% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s Q2 2024 revenue was RMB 141.61 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 21.60% [1][2] - The EPS estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 1.19, 1.28, and 1.42 respectively [1][10] Sales and Market Performance - The company sold 1.827 million vehicles in H1 2024, with a significant focus on reducing inventory levels [2][8] - The sales performance varied by brand, with SAIC Volkswagen showing a slight increase while SAIC General and SAIC Passenger Cars faced significant declines [2][8] - The company’s export and overseas sales were 488,000 units, down 8.5% year-on-year, but the overseas market's terminal deliveries increased by 12.7% [2][8] Management and Strategic Outlook - The company is entering a necessary strategic transformation period under new leadership, with expectations for improved governance and operational efficiency [4][8] - The management changes are seen as a proactive step to address external pressures and enhance the company's competitive position in the market [4][8] Valuation Metrics - The company’s current valuation is considered low, with a projected PE ratio of 10.53 for 2024, compared to a comparable company average of 15.0 [10][11] - The target price reflects a conservative approach based on the company's ongoing transformation and market conditions [10][11]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1][2] Core Views - SAIC Motor's 1H24 revenue decreased by 12.4% YoY to RMB 277.09 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders down 6.5% YoY to RMB 6.63 billion [1] - 2Q24 revenue fell 21.4% YoY and 0.6% QoQ to RMB 138.1 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders down 9.0% YoY but up 44.2% QoQ to RMB 3.91 billion [1] - SAIC-GM's losses dragged down performance, with 1H24 losses reaching RMB 2.27 billion [1] - SAIC-Volkswagen and SAIC-GM-Wuling expected to show marginal improvement in 2H24 [1] - Overseas strategy focuses on flexible solutions, with HEV/fuel vehicle series launched to mitigate EU tariff policy risks [1] - Autonomous brand transformation underway, with IM Motors sales up 131.3% YoY to 27,000 units in the first 7 months of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - 1H24 gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 8.5% [1] - 2Q24 gross margin fell 1.3 percentage points YoY and 0.6 percentage points QoQ to 8.2% [1] - 1H24 investment income from associates and joint ventures dropped 51.6% YoY to RMB 2.21 billion [1] - 2Q24 investment income from associates and joint ventures plummeted 99.8% YoY and QoQ to RMB 4 million [1] Sales Performance - SAIC-Volkswagen sales in the first 7 months of 2024 decreased 1.5% YoY to 593,000 units, with 1H24 profit of RMB 860 million [1] - SAIC-GM sales in the first 7 months of 2024 dropped 55.1% YoY to 241,000 units, with 1H24 losses of RMB 2.27 billion [1] - SAIC-GM-Wuling sales in the first 7 months of 2024 increased 2.3% YoY to 644,000 units, with 1H24 profit of RMB 100 million [1] - SAIC Motor's overseas sales in the first 7 months of 2024 decreased 9.7% YoY to 570,000 units [1] Forecasts - 2024E-2026E net profit attributable to shareholders revised down by 31.3%/23.8%/17.6% to RMB 10.26/12.34/13.76 billion [1] - 2024E revenue expected to decrease 6.84% YoY to RMB 676.562 billion [2] - 2024E EPS forecast at RMB 0.89, with ROE (diluted) at 3.51% [2] - 2024E P/E ratio estimated at 14.2x, with P/B ratio at 0.5x [2] Strategic Initiatives - Implementing "Big Autonomous" strategy, integrating brand channels and technical resources [1] - MG and Roewe undergoing marketing channel adjustments to improve operational efficiency [1] - IM Motors launched 2024 LS6 SUV with Lingxi Digital Chassis at Chengdu Auto Show, targeting annual sales of 70,000-80,000 units [1]