Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SAIC Motor (600104 SH) [7] Core Views - SAIC Motor's 2024 H1 revenue was RMB 284 69 billion, down 12 8% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 6 63 billion, down 6 5% YoY, and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1 02 billion, down 82 0% YoY [2][5] - Despite intense market competition, the company demonstrated relatively stable profitability, with continuous optimization of its sales structure [2][5] - In Q2 2024, SAIC Motor's wholesale sales reached 993,000 units, down 15 9% YoY but up 19 0% QoQ, with passenger vehicle registrations at 565,000 units, down 29 2% YoY and 20 3% QoQ [5] - The company's Q2 2024 revenue was RMB 141 61 billion, down 21 6% YoY and 1 0% QoQ, while operating income was RMB 138 10 billion, down 21 4% YoY and 0 6% QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor's Q2 2024 net profit attributable to parent company was RMB 3 91 billion, down 9 0% YoY but up 44 2% QoQ, with a net profit margin of 2 8%, up 0 4pct YoY and 0 9pct QoQ [5] - The company's Q2 2024 automotive business gross margin was 8 2%, down 1 3pct YoY and 0 6pct QoQ, while the expense ratio was 10 4%, up 1 5pct YoY but down 0 2pct QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor's Q2 2024 investment income was RMB 5 73 billion, up 79 5% YoY and 108 0% QoQ, with joint venture investment income at RMB 0 04 billion, significantly declining both YoY and QoQ [5] - The company's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 310,000 units in Q2 2024, up 49 5% QoQ, while overseas market deliveries reached 279,000 units, up 3 7% QoQ [5] - SAIC Motor is accelerating its intelligent and electric vehicle layout, with technologies such as DMH super hybrid, full-stack 3 0 intelligent vehicle solutions, and solid-state batteries being rapidly commercialized [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 14 89 billion, RMB 15 61 billion, and RMB 16 72 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9 5X, 9 1X, and 8 5X [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - SAIC Motor's 2024E revenue is projected to be RMB 756 507 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 14 891 billion [12] - The company's 2025E revenue is expected to reach RMB 774 582 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 15 611 billion [12] - For 2026E, SAIC Motor's revenue is forecasted to be RMB 797 203 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 16 719 billion [12] - The company's 2024E EPS is projected to be RMB 1 29, with a P/E ratio of 9 55X and a P/B ratio of 0 47 [12] - SAIC Motor's 2025E EPS is expected to be RMB 1 35, with a P/E ratio of 9 11X and a P/B ratio of 0 45 [12] - The company's 2026E EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1 44, with a P/E ratio of 8 50X and a P/B ratio of 0 43 [12] Business Highlights - SAIC Motor's joint venture performance showed mixed results in Q2 2024, with SAIC Volkswagen sales at 264,000 units (down 4 7% YoY, up 6 4% QoQ), SAIC GM sales at 114,000 units (down 57 0% YoY, up 2 3% QoQ), and SAIC-GM-Wuling sales at 346,000 units (up 5 6% YoY, up 54 5% QoQ) [5] - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, with a focus on consolidating its presence in Western Europe and South America while exploring emerging markets in Eastern Europe [5] - SAIC Motor has launched several new energy vehicle models, including the IM L6, Roewe D5X, and Buick GL8 plug-in hybrid, with the SAIC Volkswagen ID family achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units [6]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 上汽集团（600104） 8 月批发同比-39%，智己同比表现较佳 2024 年 09 月 10 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 744063 | 744705 | 676566 | 710977 | 776053 | | 同比（ % ） | (4.59) | 0.09 | (9.15) | 5.09 | 9.15 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 16118 | 14106 | 14465 | 14155 | 16504 | | 同比（ % ） | (34.30) | (12.48) | 2.54 | (2.14) | 16.60 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 1.39 | 1.22 ...

证券代码:600104 证券简称:上汽集团 公告编号:临 2024-045 | | | | | ম 量(辆) | | | | | 備 | 量(辆) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 車 位 | 本月数 | 去年 | 月度 | 本年 | 去年 | 累计 | 本月数 | 去年 | 月度 | 本年 | 去年 | 累计 | | | | 同期 | 同比 | 累计 | 累计 | 同比 | | 同期 | 同比 | 累计 | 累计 | 同比 | | 上汽大众 汽车有限公司 | 86,317 | 114,582 | -24.67% | 683,910 | 716,724 | -4.58% | 85,000 | 110,033 | -22.75% | 678,091 | 712,325 | -4.81% | | 上汽通用 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 汽车有限公司 | 14.319 | 83,585 | -82.87% | 235.430 | 622.483 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 12.55 CNY per share on August 29, 2024, corresponding to a PE ratio of 10/9/8 for the years 2024-2026 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 284.69 billion CNY for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.63 billion CNY, down 6.5% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 1.02 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 82.0% year-on-year [1][5]. - In Q2 2024, total revenue was 138.1 billion CNY, down 21.4% year-on-year and 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 3.91 billion CNY, down 9.0% year-on-year but up 44.2% quarter-on-quarter [1][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its production and sales structure while accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles, achieving a 29.9% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle deliveries in the first half of 2024 [1][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For H1 2024, the company’s total revenue was 284.69 billion CNY, with a net profit of 6.63 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion CNY [1][5]. - Q2 2024 saw total revenue of 138.1 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.91 billion CNY and an adjusted net profit of -1.1 billion CNY [1][4]. Sales Performance - The company sold 993,000 vehicles in Q2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.0%. However, the average selling price (ASP) decreased to 95,000 CNY, down 6.4% year-on-year and 16.5% quarter-on-quarter [1][4]. Cost and Expenses - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 8.2%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year and 0.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to intensified price competition [1][4]. - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 4.4%, 3.3%, 2.7%, and 0.2%, respectively, with slight variations compared to the previous quarter [1][4]. Investment and Future Outlook - The company’s investment income for Q2 2024 was 5.73 billion CNY, significantly impacted by losses from joint ventures, particularly from General Motors [1][5]. - The report anticipates revenue growth for 2024-2026, projecting revenues of 706.7 billion CNY, 706.7 billion CNY, and 779.9 billion CNY, with net profits of 14.13 billion CNY, 15.30 billion CNY, and 17.22 billion CNY, respectively [2][4].

降库存影响短期表现,期待集团新面貌 基本数据 风险提示：消费需求不及预期、出海不及预期、公司智能化进展不及预期。 研究员 宋亭亭 SAC No. S0570522110001 SFC No. BTK945 songtingting021619@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 联系人 张硕 SAC No. S0570123080061 zhangshuo023124@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 2024 H1 公司实现归母净利 66.28 亿元，同比-6.5% 公司发布半年报，24 年 H1 实现营收 2846.86 亿元（yoy-12.82%），归母净 利 66.28 亿元（yoy-6.45%），扣非净利 10.20 亿元（yoy-82.00%）。其中 Q2 实现营收 1416.14 亿元（yoy-21.60%，qoq-1.02%），归母净利 39.14 亿元（yoy-9.03%，qoq+44.22%）。考虑行业竞争加剧对公司影响，我们下 调公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别至 1.19、1.28、1.42 元（前值 24-26 年 1.39、 1. ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1][2] Core Views - SAIC Motor's 1H24 revenue decreased by 12.4% YoY to RMB 277.09 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders down 6.5% YoY to RMB 6.63 billion [1] - 2Q24 revenue fell 21.4% YoY and 0.6% QoQ to RMB 138.1 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders down 9.0% YoY but up 44.2% QoQ to RMB 3.91 billion [1] - SAIC-GM's losses dragged down performance, with 1H24 losses reaching RMB 2.27 billion [1] - SAIC-Volkswagen and SAIC-GM-Wuling expected to show marginal improvement in 2H24 [1] - Overseas strategy focuses on flexible solutions, with HEV/fuel vehicle series launched to mitigate EU tariff policy risks [1] - Autonomous brand transformation underway, with IM Motors sales up 131.3% YoY to 27,000 units in the first 7 months of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - 1H24 gross margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 8.5% [1] - 2Q24 gross margin fell 1.3 percentage points YoY and 0.6 percentage points QoQ to 8.2% [1] - 1H24 investment income from associates and joint ventures dropped 51.6% YoY to RMB 2.21 billion [1] - 2Q24 investment income from associates and joint ventures plummeted 99.8% YoY and QoQ to RMB 4 million [1] Sales Performance - SAIC-Volkswagen sales in the first 7 months of 2024 decreased 1.5% YoY to 593,000 units, with 1H24 profit of RMB 860 million [1] - SAIC-GM sales in the first 7 months of 2024 dropped 55.1% YoY to 241,000 units, with 1H24 losses of RMB 2.27 billion [1] - SAIC-GM-Wuling sales in the first 7 months of 2024 increased 2.3% YoY to 644,000 units, with 1H24 profit of RMB 100 million [1] - SAIC Motor's overseas sales in the first 7 months of 2024 decreased 9.7% YoY to 570,000 units [1] Forecasts - 2024E-2026E net profit attributable to shareholders revised down by 31.3%/23.8%/17.6% to RMB 10.26/12.34/13.76 billion [1] - 2024E revenue expected to decrease 6.84% YoY to RMB 676.562 billion [2] - 2024E EPS forecast at RMB 0.89, with ROE (diluted) at 3.51% [2] - 2024E P/E ratio estimated at 14.2x, with P/B ratio at 0.5x [2] Strategic Initiatives - Implementing "Big Autonomous" strategy, integrating brand channels and technical resources [1] - MG and Roewe undergoing marketing channel adjustments to improve operational efficiency [1] - IM Motors launched 2024 LS6 SUV with Lingxi Digital Chassis at Chengdu Auto Show, targeting annual sales of 70,000-80,000 units [1]

上海汽车集团股份有限公司 关于上海汽车集团财务有限责任公司 2024 年半年度风险评估报告 上海汽车集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）按照《上海 证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 5 号——交易与关联交易》的要 求，通过查验上海汽车集团财务有限责任公司（以下简称"上汽财务 公司"）《金融许可证》《企业法人营业执照》等证件资料，审阅上汽 财务公司相关财务报表，对上汽财务公司的经营资质、业务和风险状 况进行了评估，具体情况报告如下： 一、上汽财务公司基本情况 上汽财务公司成立于 1994 年 4 月，是经中国人民银行批准成立 的非银行金融机构，2024 年 6 月末上汽财务公司注册资本人民币 153.80 亿元（含 1000 万美元），由本公司及本公司控股子公司上海 汽车工业销售有限公司分别持股 98.999%、1.001%。 金融许可证机构编码：L0038H231000001 企业法人营业执照统一社会信用代码：913101151322268960 法定代表人：王晓秋 职工人数：2024 年 6 月末在册 614 人 注册地址及邮政编码：中国（上海）自由贸易试验区华京路 8 号 三层 317 室 200131 ...

证券代码：600104 证券简称：上汽集团 公告编号：临 2024－044 上海汽车集团股份有限公司 八届十七次监事会会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 特此公告。 上海汽车集团股份有限公司 上海汽车集团股份有限公司第八届监事会第十七次会议通知于 2024 年 8 月 16 日通过传真、电子邮件等形式送达。本次监事会会议 于 2024 年 8 月 28 日采用通讯方式召开，应参加会议监事 4 人，实际 收到 4 名监事的有效表决票。会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》及《公 司章程》的有关规定。 经与会监事逐项审议，表决通过了如下决议： 1、公司 2024 年半年度报告及摘要 （同意 4 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票） 2、关于《公司 2024 年上半年度内部控制评价报告》的议案 （同意 4 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票） 监事会 2024 年 8 月 30 日 1 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 上海汽车集团股份有限公司第八届董事会第二十四次会议通知 于 2024 年 8 月 16 日通过传真、电子邮件等形式送达。本次董事会会 议于 2024 年 8 月 28 日采用通讯方式召开，应参加会议董事 8 人，实 际收到 8 名董事的有效表决票。会议的召集、召开符合《公司法》及 《公司章程》的有关规定。 经与会董事逐项审议,表决通过了如下决议： 1、2024 年半年度报告及摘要 证券代码：600104 证券简称：上汽集团 公告编号：临 2024－043 上海汽车集团股份有限公司 八届二十四次董事会会议决议公告 （同意 8 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票） 2、关于《公司 2024 年上半年度内部控制评价报告》的议案 本议案事先已经公司董事会审计委员会审议通过。 （同意 8 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票） 特此公告。 上海汽车集团股份有限公司 董事会 2024 年 8 月 30 日 2024 年上半年，公司实现营业总收入 2846.86 亿元，同比下降 12.82％；实现归属于 ...

Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the first half of 2024 was CNY 284.69 billion, a decrease of 12.82% compared to the same period last year[16]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 6.63 billion, down 6.45% year-on-year[16]. - Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 1.02 billion, a significant decrease of 82.00% compared to the previous year[16]. - Basic earnings per share decreased to CNY 0.577, down 6.33% from CNY 0.616 in the same period last year[17]. - The weighted average return on net assets was 2.30%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year[18]. - The company reported a net profit of CNY 1.99 billion for the first half of 2024, compared to a net profit of CNY 5.10 billion in the first half of 2023, reflecting a decline of 61.0%[101]. - The total comprehensive income for the first half of 2024 was CNY 6.21 billion, a decrease of 37.7% from CNY 9.97 billion in the same period of 2023[104]. - The total profit for the first half of 2024 was CNY 8.78 billion, down 36.5% from CNY 13.78 billion in the same period of 2023[105]. Cash Flow and Investments - Operating cash flow for the period increased by 64.18% to CNY 11.32 billion, attributed to adjustments in loan scale and deposit structure by a subsidiary[18]. - Cash flow from operating activities increased by 64.18% year-on-year, primarily due to adjustments in loan scales and deposit structures by a subsidiary[25]. - Cash flow from investing activities increased by 117.55% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced cash payments for investments by a subsidiary[25]. - Cash flow from financing activities increased by 140.51% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in cash used for debt repayment[25]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first half of 2024 was CNY 11,316,873,712.29, a significant increase from CNY 6,892,777,845.13 in the same period of 2023, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 64.9%[109]. - The net cash flow from investment activities was CNY 1,471,640,802.39, a recovery from a negative cash flow of CNY -8,383,948,825.89 in the first half of 2023[109]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was CNY 4,327,256,794.54, a recovery from a negative cash flow of CNY -10,681,224,990.25 in the same period last year[110]. Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 973.11 billion, down 3.33% from the previous year[16]. - The company's total liabilities decreased to ¥626.71 billion from ¥663.74 billion, reflecting a reduction of about 5.6%[97]. - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period amounted to ¥159.74 billion, representing 16.42% of total assets, an increase of 11.21% from the previous year[28]. - The company's accounts receivable increased by 6.18% to ¥72.22 billion, compared to ¥68.02 billion at the end of the previous year[28]. - The company's total liabilities decreased to RMB 97,199,257,050.07 at the end of the first half of 2024[117]. Market and Product Development - The company faced challenges due to a decline in the fuel vehicle market and intensified price competition, leading to reduced sales revenue and gross profit[18]. - The company has not disclosed any plans for significant new products or market expansions in this report[4]. - The company launched several new energy products, including the Zhiji L6 and Roewe D5X, to stimulate market demand[23]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Western Europe and South America, while addressing EU anti-subsidy investigations[23]. - The company plans to focus on new product development and market expansion strategies to improve future performance[101]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company has established a comprehensive environmental protection system and strictly adheres to pollution discharge standards[54]. - The total amount of COD emissions was 1,764 tons, with actual emissions at 93 tons, indicating effective pollution control measures[55]. - The company actively promotes third-party governance of pollutants and maintains pollution control facilities to meet discharge standards[56]. - The company implemented online monitoring for wastewater, waste gas, and noise, ensuring compliance with environmental standards[57]. - The company expects to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 23,800 tons per year through carbon reduction projects[65]. Shareholder and Equity Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders reached 177,822 by the end of the reporting period[90]. - The company's total shares decreased from 11,683,461,365 to 11,575,299,445 due to the cancellation of 108,161,920 shares repurchased under the 2020 share buyback plan[89]. - The top ten shareholders hold a total of 63.27% of the shares, with Shanghai Automotive Industry Group Co., Ltd. being the largest shareholder[91]. - The company has initiated a three-year shareholder return plan (2024-2026) to enhance cash dividend predictability and completed a third round of share repurchases[24]. Financial Management and Accounting Policies - The financial statements for the first half of 2024 were prepared in accordance with the accounting standards issued by the Ministry of Finance and reflect the company's financial position as of June 30, 2024[124]. - The company’s accounting policies include measuring expected credit losses on receivables and capitalizing development expenditures[123]. - The group assesses whether to terminate recognition of financial assets based on the degree of risk and reward transfer and control retained over the asset[148]. - The group recognizes expected credit losses based on the present value of the difference between cash flows expected to be received and cash flows contractually due, weighted by the probability of default[140].