Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 20 times for 2025 [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in operating profit in Q4 2024, with a forecasted non-GAAP net profit of 8.24 to 27.24 billion CNY, marking a substantial increase from Q3 2024 [7]. - The overall sales volume for Q4 2024 is projected to be 1.3637 million units, reflecting a 65.8% increase from Q3 2024, driven by improvements in both joint venture and self-owned brands [7]. - The company anticipates a continued recovery in profitability in 2025, supported by ongoing reforms and strategic adjustments in both self-owned and joint venture brands [7]. Financial Forecasts - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.15 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively, with a notable decrease in 2024 due to asset impairment provisions [2][4]. - Revenue is expected to decline to 611.672 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 674.246 billion CNY in 2025 and 721.878 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 10.2% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026 [4][8]. - The gross margin is projected to improve gradually from 10.6% in 2024 to 11.0% in 2026, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 [4][8]. Sales and Market Performance - The company’s sales performance in Q4 2024 is expected to benefit from a recovery in both joint venture and self-owned brands, with significant sales increases reported for major brands [7]. - The report highlights that the company’s retail sales have outpaced wholesale sales, indicating a positive trend in market demand [6]. Summary of Financial Data - The company reported a revenue of 726.199 billion CNY in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.106 billion CNY, down 12.5% from the previous year [4][8]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is expected to be between 1.5 to 1.9 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 87% to 90% year-on-year due to asset impairment [7].

Core Viewpoint - SAIC Motor Corporation is expected to experience a significant decline in performance for 2024, with a projected net profit drop of over 12 billion yuan, marking the first time since its listing that the annual net profit will decrease by this magnitude [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 1.5 billion and 1.9 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 87% to 90%, equating to a reduction of 12.2 billion to 12.6 billion yuan [1][3][4]. - In 2023, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.106 billion yuan, indicating a stark contrast to the anticipated figures for 2024 [4][5]. - The company also expects a non-recurring net profit loss of between 4.1 billion and 6 billion yuan for 2024, marking the first time since 2009 that it will report a loss in this category [3][6]. Market Position and Competition - SAIC Motor has lost its position as the top-selling automaker in China, with its sales being surpassed by BYD for the first time in 2024 [2][8]. - The company’s wholesale vehicle sales are projected to decline by 20.07% to 4.013 million units in 2024, while BYD's sales are expected to grow by 41.26% to 4.2721 million units [7][8]. - The competitive landscape in the fuel vehicle market is intensifying, with ongoing price wars contributing to reduced sales revenue and declining profit margins for SAIC [7]. Strategic Challenges - The company faces a dual challenge of fierce competition in the fuel vehicle market and insufficient progress in transitioning to electric vehicles [2][7]. - The production and sales figures for SAIC's electric vehicle platform, Zhiji Motors, while showing growth, remain relatively low compared to the overall production and sales of over 4 million units [8]. - The company plans to take asset impairment provisions of 23.212 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2024, which is expected to reduce the net profit attributable to shareholders by 7.874 billion yuan [8].

上海汽车集团股份有限公司 关于合营企业计提资产减值准备的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 上海汽车集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）持股 50%的 合营企业上汽通用汽车有限公司（以下简称"上汽通用"）及其控股 子公司上汽通用东岳汽车有限公司（以下简称"东岳汽车"）、上汽通 用（沈阳）北盛汽车有限公司（以下简称"北盛汽车"）、上汽通用东 岳动力总成有限公司（以下简称"东岳动力总成"），为应对市场挑战， 在评估稳定市场份额和聚焦盈利能力所采取的业务重整行动的影响 后，将在 2024 年第四季度计提资产减值准备 232.12 亿元人民币。 公司对上汽通用及其控股子公司采用权益法进行核算。因公司 对采用权益法核算的合营企业及联营企业不负有承担额外损失义务， 根据《企业会计准则》，在其发生超额亏损时，公司仅将对其长期股 权投资减记至零为限，不需确认其发生的超额亏损。 截至 2024 年 9 月 30 日，公司合并口径对上汽通用、东岳汽车、 北盛汽车（以下合称"上汽通用整车相关公司"）的长期股权投资账 ...

Financial Performance Expectations - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2024 to be between 1.5 billion and 1.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.2 billion to 12.6 billion RMB compared to the previous year, representing a year-on-year decline of 87% to 90%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between -4.1 billion and -6 billion RMB, a decrease of 14.1 billion to 16 billion RMB compared to the previous year, representing a year-on-year decline of 141% to 160%[3] Sales Performance - The company achieved wholesale vehicle sales of 4.013 million units in 2024, a decrease of 20.07% compared to the same period last year[6] Impairment and Capital Changes - The impairment provision related to the joint venture SAIC-GM is expected to reduce the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company by approximately 7.874 billion RMB in the fourth quarter of 2024[6] - The completion of the equity transfer and capital increase of MG Motor India Pvt. Ltd. is expected to increase the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company by approximately 5.13 billion RMB in 2024[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.40 CNY, based on a projected PE ratio of 20 times for 2025 [2][5][106]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from significant reforms and transformations, leading to a potential turnaround in performance by 2025 [14][20][26]. - The integration of the Feifan and Roewe brands is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and profitability within the self-owned brand segment [28][33]. - The company is focusing on accelerating its electric and intelligent transformation, with plans to launch multiple new models in the coming years [90][99][106]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.80 CNY, 1.07 CNY, and 1.16 CNY respectively [2][106]. - The company's revenue is projected to decline in 2024 but is expected to recover in subsequent years, with a forecasted growth of 10.2% in 2025 and 7.1% in 2026 [4][106]. - The report highlights a significant drop in net profit for 2024, with an estimated loss of 18.52 billion CNY for the first half of the year, but anticipates a recovery in profitability by 2025 [73][106]. Company Financial Information - The company reported a revenue of 726.2 billion CNY in 2023, with a slight increase of 0.7% from the previous year, but forecasts a decline to 611.7 billion CNY in 2024 [4][106]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 10.9% by 2026 [4][106]. - The net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 1.9% by 2026, indicating a gradual recovery in profitability [4][106]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a comprehensive reform plan that includes brand integration, organizational restructuring, and technological upgrades to enhance competitiveness [20][25][26]. - The self-owned brand segment is expected to see a turnaround due to improved operational efficiency and a focus on high-end electric vehicles [28][33]. - The joint ventures with international partners are set to accelerate the development of new energy vehicles and smart driving technologies [90][99][106].

Summary of SAIC Motor Corporation Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses SAIC Motor Corporation, focusing on its transformation in the era of smart vehicles and its stock performance over the past two months [3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Transformation Potential**: SAIC is expected to successfully transform in the smart era, with its current stock price being undervalued, indicating significant long-term investment value [4]. - **Valuation Restructuring**: The company is anticipated to reshape its valuation and increase market share due to national policy support, state-owned enterprise reforms, and market capitalization assessments [4]. - **Core Competitive Factors**: In the smart era, key competitive elements will include computing power, algorithms, and data, with SAIC collaborating with companies like Huawei and Tesla to enhance its competitiveness [4][6]. - **Market Growth Opportunities**: The domestic new energy vehicle market penetration is projected to exceed 80% in the next three to five years, presenting new growth opportunities for SAIC [4][9]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: Although SAIC's market share declined during the electrification era, its joint venture model and manufacturing capabilities are expected to become advantages in the smart era [4][10]. - **Impact of Impairment Losses**: Impairment losses related to SAIC-GM will affect its Q4 2024 performance, but the overall financial health remains robust, with asset valuations having room for improvement [4][17]. - **Long-term Investment Logic**: Despite short-term stock price fluctuations influenced by state-owned enterprise reform progress, the long-term investment rationale remains valid, encouraging investors to focus on fundamental improvements [4][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Industry Trends**: The next three to five years will see smart technology as the core industry trend, with significant changes in consumer mobility expected by 2028 [6][9]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The competition in the smart era will differ from the electrification phase, emphasizing the need for strong computing and algorithm capabilities [7]. - **SAIC's Reform Characteristics**: The reform process at SAIC is characterized by a top-down and bottom-up approach, supported by national policies [8]. - **Sales Impact of Partnerships**: Historical data indicates that SAIC's collaboration with Huawei could enhance sales performance, particularly through the smart selection model [12][16]. - **Stock Price Fluctuations**: Over the past two months, SAIC's stock price has experienced three phases of fluctuation, influenced by various factors including government support and reform expectations [14]. - **Financial Health and Valuation**: SAIC's financial status includes a net asset total of 70 billion yuan, with various asset valuations suggesting a market value close to 300 billion yuan [18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding SAIC Motor Corporation, highlighting its strategic direction, market opportunities, and financial outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 21/17/15 for the years 2024-2026, respectively, and a current PB of 0.7 times [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from state-owned enterprise reforms, potentially leading to a bottom reversal in performance. Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 676.9 billion, 707.4 billion, and 747.0 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 10.4 billion, 12.9 billion, and 14.6 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In December 2024, the company reported wholesale sales of 483,000 vehicles, totaling 4.013 million for the year, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. Notably, the sales figures for various brands showed a decline, with SAIC-GM down 56.5% and SAIC Passenger Cars down 28.3%, while SAIC New Energy saw a growth of 9.9% [1][2]. Inventory and Delivery - The company achieved a terminal delivery of 4.639 million vehicles in 2024, exceeding wholesale sales, indicating a steady inventory reduction and a safe current inventory level. The share of self-owned brands increased to 60%, reflecting a 5.3 percentage point year-on-year growth [2]. New Energy Transition - The company plans to accelerate its transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs) by launching several new models in 2025, including compact and mid-size electric and hybrid vehicles. The focus will be on enhancing brand influence and integrating R&D, sales, and service efforts [3]. Management Changes - Significant management changes have occurred in 2024, aligning with state-owned enterprise reforms. The new leadership emphasizes resource integration and collaboration, aiming to accelerate the company's transformation towards smart electric vehicles [4]. Financial Projections - The financial forecast indicates a revenue decline of 9.1% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 4.5% and 5.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Net profit is projected to decrease by 26.0% in 2024 but rebound with a growth of 23.6% in 2025 [5][20].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for SAIC Motor Corp Ltd, projecting a target price of RMB 24.39 based on a 2025 PE of 22 times [4][22]. Core Insights - SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is a leading player in China's automotive industry, achieving wholesale sales of 1.83 million units and retail sales of 2.12 million units in the first half of 2024. The retail sales of self-owned brands reached 1.24 million units, accounting for 58.8% of total sales. New energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales were 524,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, while overseas retail sales grew by 12.7% to 548,000 units [2][19][20]. - The company effectively addresses overseas challenges, optimizing its production and sales layout to maintain market share in Europe and expanding into new markets such as Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and South America [20][22]. - In automotive technology innovation, SAIC has achieved a dual-driven R&D approach, focusing on both internal development and external collaborations. The Zero Bundle 3.0 supports L3 intelligent driving, expected to launch in 2025, while the next-gen 4.0 integrates AI for L4 intelligent driving [3][21]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for SAIC are RMB 649.3 billion, RMB 740.8 billion, and RMB 850.4 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at RMB 10.1 billion, RMB 12.8 billion, and RMB 14.2 billion for the same years [4][22]. - The report anticipates a decline in revenue for 2024 due to pressures on both joint venture and self-owned brand sales, with expected revenues of RMB 410 billion, RMB 495.1 billion, and RMB 597.8 billion for the vehicle business from 2024 to 2026 [8][17]. - The parts business is expected to recover alongside the overall industry, with projected revenues of RMB 182.9 billion, RMB 189.3 billion, and RMB 196.1 billion for the same period [8][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 22.26 CNY [2][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from national reforms, leading to a stabilization and upward trend in profitability. The overall retail sales are projected to exceed wholesale sales significantly [15][16]. - The company has shown a slight increase in wholesale sales in December, with a total annual sales volume of 4.013 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1% [16]. - The company anticipates a recovery in wholesale sales in 2025, driven by the completion of inventory reduction efforts [16][19]. Financial Summary - **Revenue (Million CNY)**: - 2022A: 720,988 - 2023A: 726,199 (0.7% YoY growth) - 2024E: 659,813 (-9.1% YoY) - 2025E: 714,524 (8.3% YoY) - 2026E: 760,302 (6.4% YoY) [1] - **Operating Profit (Million CNY)**: - 2022A: 26,022 - 2023A: 25,937 (-0.3% YoY) - 2024E: 17,060 (-34.2% YoY) - 2025E: 20,364 (19.4% YoY) - 2026E: 22,001 (8.0% YoY) [1] - **Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company (Million CNY)**: - 2022A: 16,118 - 2023A: 14,106 (-12.5% YoY) - 2024E: 10,329 (-26.8% YoY) - 2025E: 12,295 (19.0% YoY) - 2026E: 13,269 (7.9% YoY) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (CNY)**: - 2022A: 1.39 - 2023A: 1.22 - 2024E: 0.89 - 2025E: 1.06 - 2026E: 1.15 [1] - **Gross Margin (%)**: - 2022A: 9.6% - 2023A: 10.2% - 2024E: 10.2% - 2025E: 10.7% - 2026E: 10.9% [1] - **Net Margin (%)**: - 2022A: 2.2% - 2023A: 1.9% - 2024E: 1.6% - 2025E: 1.7% - 2026E: 1.7% [1] - **Return on Equity (%)**: - 2022A: 5.8% - 2023A: 5.0% - 2024E: 3.5% - 2025E: 4.0% - 2026E: 4.2% [1] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: - 2023A: 17.0 - 2024E: 23.3 - 2025E: 19.5 - 2026E: 18.1 [1] - **Price-to-Book Ratio**: - 2023A: 0.8 - 2024E: 0.8 - 2025E: 0.8 - 2026E: 0.7 [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][120]. Core Viewpoints - The company is actively responding to national policies promoting state-owned enterprise reform, adjusting its management and operational strategies to enhance competitiveness [2][90]. - The company has a strong foundation in technology, with significant advancements in electric and hybrid vehicle platforms, and is expanding both domestic and international markets [3][101]. - The financial forecast indicates a recovery in profitability and revenue growth from 2025 onwards, driven by strategic adjustments and new model introductions [3][120]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from its origins in 1955 to become a leading player in the automotive industry, focusing on both traditional and new energy vehicles [24][27]. - It operates under a highly concentrated ownership structure, with the majority stake held by a state-owned entity [24][26]. Current Situation - The automotive industry is facing intense competition, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, where domestic brands are gaining significant market share [56][64]. - The company's joint ventures are experiencing declining sales, necessitating a focus on enhancing the competitiveness of its self-owned brands [64][72]. Changes and Developments - The company is undergoing a management overhaul to better align with the challenges of the evolving automotive landscape, particularly in electric and smart vehicle sectors [90][94]. - Strategic adjustments include inventory reduction and a shift in production focus to enhance operational efficiency [95][99]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 10.4 billion, 11.9 billion, and 13.1 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 18, and 16 [3][120]. - Revenue is expected to recover from 633.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 710.8 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a positive trend in operational performance [3][120].