%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨上汽集团（600104.SH） [Table_Title] 上汽集团 2024 年三季报点评：销量下滑导致盈 利承压，公司加快创新转型 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | 报告要点 | | | [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年三季报。 2024 年前三季度实现营业总收入 4304.8 亿元，同比 -17.7% ；归母 | | | 净利润 69.1 亿元，同比 -39.4% ；扣非归母净利润 10.5 亿元，同比 -88.9% 。 2024Q3 公司实现 营业总收入 1458.0 亿元，同比下滑 25.9% ，环比 +3.0% ；实现营 ...

大家好,我是东京事务院的技术分析师黄细比,非常感谢大家能够抽空参加我们今天晚上生气的生气集团的这个电话会议。本次电话会的话,除了我和我还有我同事任务,那么对生气集团的话,应该我们也是尽 三年吧应该是对第一次可能跟大家单独的汇报生技集团的一个观点结论的话是我们会认为就是往后这个一到三年生技集团我们认为去讲空间反转的逻辑是可行的那么现在低于0.6倍的一个PB我们认为参考历史上车企的一些经验来看这肯定在A股就是一个绝对的一个底部 那么往上顶看的话,我们认为半年到一年角度来看,我们认为一对的PD修复的空间是概率是蛮大的,当然更高的空间,我们认为啊,具体要看后续上期的这两个改革方案的一个详细的一个措施吧,我们后续会再去做详细的一个调整。 那么我这边可能会针对我们对升旗当前的这样一个结论的原因可能先整理一下参数那么待会我同时公布的话也是我们其实还是一直在紧密的跟踪升旗的这个基本面的以后跟大家再详细的展开汇报一下其实大家也知道我们最近也是特别推荐小型汽车的那乍一看大家可能会觉得我们可能这两个票好像是有点完全两种风格但实际上对我们来说其实我们背后对于整车的 接下来一到三年的一个选股的逻辑都是在找黑马也就是说在找跟市场明知完全 ...

流通市值（百万） 149,205.61 2024 年 11 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：增持(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 智己突破合资承压，海外和新能源稳中向好 ——上汽集团（600104）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 上汽集团 2024 年 10 月 30 日发布 2024 年三季度报告：公司 2024 年前 三季度实现营业总收入 4304.82 亿元，同比-17.74%。2024 年前三季度 实现归母净利润 69.07 亿元，同比-39.45%；扣非后归母净利润 10.50 亿 元，同比-88.92%；公司 2024 年前三季度总销量 264.93 万辆，同比 -21.56%。 投资要点: 2024Q3 经营业绩承压，集团 ASP 同环比向上。 2024Q3 集团 营业总收入 1457.96 亿元，同/环比-25.91%/+2.95%；Q3 归母净利 润 2.80 亿元，同/环比-93.53%/-92.86%；Q3 扣非归母净利润 0.29 亿元，同比-99.23%，环比转正。202 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 上汽集团（600104） 2024 年三季报点评：业绩低于预期，静待合 资经营改善 2024 年 11 月 04 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 744063 | 744705 | 580732 | 600047 | 633751 | | 同比（ % ） | (4.59) | 0.09 | (22.02) | 3.33 | 5.62 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 16118 | 14106 | 9956 | 9303 | 12296 | | 同比（ % ） | (34.30) | (12.48) | (29.42) | (6.56) | 32.17 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | ...

上汽集团（600104.SH）系列点评九 3 8 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 24Q3：合资亏损收窄 自主新能源转型加速 2024 年 11 月 01 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季度报告：2024Q1-3 公司总营收为 4,304.8 亿 元，同比-17.7%；归母净利润 69.1 亿元，同比-39.5%；扣非归母净利润 10.5 亿 元，同比-88.9%。2024Q3公司总营收为1,458.0亿元，同比-25.9%，环比+3.0%； 归母净利润 2.80 亿元，同比-93.5%，环比-92.9%；扣非归母净利润 0.29 亿元， 同比-99.2%，环比-102.7%。 ➢ 营收环比稳定 ASP 小幅下降。收入端，2024Q3 公司总营收为 1,458.0 亿 元，同比-25.9%，环比+3.0%；2024Q3 上市公司集团销量 82.2 万辆，同比35.7%，环比-17.2%，收入增速高于销量增速主要是 1）上汽产品结构改善 ASP 提升；2）华域汽车 Q3 营收增加。ASP：2024Q3 单车 ASP 为 12.1 万元，同比 +15.4%，环比+24.3%，ASP 提 ...

Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter was RMB 145.80 billion, a decrease of 25.91% year-over-year[2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 279.69 million, down 93.53% compared to the same period last year[2] - Total operating income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 430.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7% compared to 523.34 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[12] - Net profit attributable to parent company shareholders was 6.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.4% compared to 11.41 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[13] - Basic earnings per share for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.602 yuan, a decrease of 39.3% compared to 0.992 yuan in the same period of 2023[13] - Total comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 was 13.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.8% compared to 16.09 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[13] - The significant decline in net profit was mainly attributed to the downturn in the fuel vehicle market and intense price competition, leading to reduced sales revenue and gross margins[5] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for the quarter was RMB 7.37 billion, a decrease of 48.09% year-over-year[2] - Sales of goods and services received cash of RMB 392.18 billion, a decrease of 24.1% compared to RMB 516.92 billion in the same period last year[14] - Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 18.69 billion, a decrease of 11.4% compared to RMB 21.10 billion in the same period last year[14] - Net cash flow from investing activities was RMB 10.59 billion, compared to a negative RMB 18.68 billion in the same period last year[15] - Net cash flow from financing activities was negative RMB 2.99 billion, an improvement from negative RMB 18.08 billion in the same period last year[15] - Cash and cash equivalents increased by RMB 26.70 billion, compared to a decrease of RMB 15.45 billion in the same period last year[15] - Cash received from interest, fees, and commissions was RMB 10.50 billion, a decrease of 16.3% compared to RMB 12.55 billion in the same period last year[14] - Cash paid for construction of fixed assets, intangible assets, and other long-term assets was RMB 9.09 billion, a decrease of 27.7% compared to RMB 12.58 billion in the same period last year[15] - Cash received from investments was RMB 306.61 billion, an increase of 4.9% compared to RMB 292.36 billion in the same period last year[14] - Cash paid for investments was RMB 294.33 billion, a decrease of 4.2% compared to RMB 307.29 billion in the same period last year[15] - Cash received from financing activities was RMB 81.18 billion, an increase of 13.8% compared to RMB 71.31 billion in the same period last year[15] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 955.31 billion, a decrease of 5.10% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, amounted to 955.31 billion RMB, a decrease from 1,006.65 billion RMB at the end of 2023[9][10] - Total liabilities as of the end of Q3 2024 were 605.01 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.9% compared to 663.74 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Total equity attributable to parent company shareholders was 292.74 billion yuan, an increase of 2.2% compared to 286.32 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Total assets as of the end of Q3 2024 were 955.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.1% compared to 1.01 trillion yuan at the end of 2023[11] - Monetary funds increased to 167.26 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 143.64 billion RMB at the end of 2023[9] - Trade receivables rose to 71.52 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, up from 68.02 billion RMB at the end of 2023[9] - Inventory decreased to 86.89 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, from 98.60 billion RMB at the end of 2023[9] - Short-term borrowings increased to 52.10 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, compared to 44.92 billion RMB at the end of 2023[10] - Accounts payable decreased to 166.43 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, from 178.67 billion RMB at the end of 2023[10] - Contract liabilities increased to 26.96 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, up from 21.84 billion RMB at the end of 2023[10] - Long-term equity investments stood at 63.67 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, down from 66.70 billion RMB at the end of 2023[10] - Fixed assets decreased to 81.84 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, from 83.89 billion RMB at the end of 2023[10] - Intangible assets slightly decreased to 20.56 billion RMB as of September 30, 2024, from 20.84 billion RMB at the end of 2023[10] - Long-term borrowings as of the end of Q3 2024 were 50.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3% compared to 51.45 billion yuan at the end of 2023[11] Shareholder Information - The company's largest shareholder, SAIC Industrial (Group) Co., Ltd., holds 63.27% of the total shares[6] - The number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 174,903[6] Non-Recurring Items - Non-recurring gains and losses for the quarter amounted to RMB 250.52 million, primarily due to government subsidies and asset disposal gains[4] Profitability Metrics - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) for the quarter was 0.07%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points year-over-year[3] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was RMB 0.025, a decrease of 93.35% year-over-year[2] Expenses - R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 11.53 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.9% compared to 12.25 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[12] - Sales expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were 18.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.2% compared to 20.55 billion yuan in the same period of 2023[12]

上汽集团(600104) / 乘用车 / 公司点评 / 2024.10.12 新能源车销量稳步攀升，海外销量稳健增长 投资评级:增持(维持) 核心观点 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | 基本数据 | 2024-10-11 | | 收盘价 ( 元 ) | 13.67 | | 流通股本 ( 亿股 ) | 115.75 | | 每股净资产 ( 元 ) | 24.76 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 115.75 | | 最近 12 月市场表现 | | ❖ 事件：公司发布 9 月销量公告，公司总销量 31.3 万辆，同比减少 35.03%。 ❖ 新能源汽车销量稳步攀升：9 月份，上汽集团新能源车销售 12.9 万辆，同 比增长 38.26%，占比为 41.28%，新能源市场持续发力。今年 1-9 月份，上汽 新能源汽车累计交付 88.6 万辆，同比增长 29.5%。其中，智己汽车终端交付量 超过 4500 辆，同比增长超过 150%。 ❖ 加快拓展海外市场：今年 1-9 月份。上汽集团海外市场终端交付量达到 80.6 万辆， ...

市场 盈利预测与投资建议 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | 买入 （维持） | | 股价（ 2024 年 09 月 13 日） | 11.55 元 | | 目标价格 | 15.86 元 | | 52 周最高价 / 最低价 | 15.34/11.49 元 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（万股） | 1,157,530/1,157,530 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 133,695 | | 国家 / 地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 汽车与零部件 | | 报告发布日期 | 2024 年 09 月 17 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|--------|--------|--------|---------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | 绝对表现 % | -5.94 | -12.99 | -14.99 | -20 ...

%% %% 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨上汽集团（600104.SH） [Table_Title] 上汽集团 2024 年半年报点评：产销结构持续优 化，盈利表现相对稳健 | --- | --- | |-------|-------| | | | | | | 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 上汽集团（600104.SH） cjzqdt11111 资料来源：Wind 相关研究 [Table_Title 上汽集团 2024 2] 年半年报点评：产销结构持续优 化，盈利表现相对稳健 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2024 年半年报。2024 年上半年实现营业总收入 2846.9 亿元，同比下滑 12.8%；归 母净利润 66.3 亿元，同比下降 6.5%；扣非净利润 10.2 亿元，同比下降 82.0%。 事件评论 批发销量环比提升，收入同环比下滑。公司 2024Q2 销量 99.3 万辆，同比下滑 15.9%， 环比提升 19 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·乘用车 上汽集团（600104） 8 月批发同比-39%，智己同比表现较佳 2024 年 09 月 10 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|---------|--------|--------|--------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 744063 | 744705 | 676566 | 710977 | 776053 | | 同比（ % ） | (4.59) | 0.09 | (9.15) | 5.09 | 9.15 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 16118 | 14106 | 14465 | 14155 | 16504 | | 同比（ % ） | (34.30) | (12.48) | 2.54 | (2.14) | 16.60 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 1.39 | 1.22 ...