Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry investment strategy for May 2025 highlights a positive economic outlook driven by proactive fiscal policies and increased domestic consumption confidence, alongside a growing global interest in China's artificial intelligence sector [1][2]. Economic Overview - Since late September 2024, a series of domestic policies have been implemented, leading to a noticeable effect on the economy. In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.9 trillion RMB, marking a 5% increase from the previous year [2]. - In Q1 2025, China's GDP at current prices was 31,875.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% at constant prices, indicating steady economic growth [2]. Policy Environment - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies in response to escalating US-China trade tensions and external uncertainties. The focus will be on expanding consumption and boosting domestic demand [2]. Industry Performance - In April 2025, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing production index fell to 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [3]. - Despite a drop in international oil prices by over 15% in April due to increased production by OPEC and trade tensions, the expected price range for Brent crude is projected to be between $65-70 per barrel and WTI at $60-65 per barrel for 2025 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key investment areas for May 2025 include potassium fertilizers, refrigerants, aramid paper, civil explosives, and pentaerythritol, with specific companies recommended for each sector: - **Potassium Fertilizers**: Global prices are rebounding, and there is a domestic demand gap. Recommended company: **Yaqi International** [4]. - **Refrigerants**: The market outlook is positive due to tightening long-term quotas and increased air conditioning production. Recommended companies: **Juhua Co.** and **Sanmei Co.** [4][7]. - **Aramid Paper**: Demand is increasing due to applications in electrical insulation and honeycomb core materials. Recommended company: **Tongyi Zhong** [4]. - **Civil Explosives**: The industry is experiencing improved profitability due to stable demand and declining costs. Recommended company: **Guangdong Hongda** [5]. - **Pentaerythritol**: Anticipated price increases due to low inventory levels and high demand from the PCB sector [5]. Investment Portfolio - The investment portfolio for this month includes: - **Yaqi International**: A rare potassium fertilizer producer with expanding capacity - **Bailong Chuangyuan**: A long-term growth "small giant" in functional sugars - **Tongyi Zhong**: A company with a full industrial chain layout for UHMWPE fibers - **Guangdong Hongda**: A leading integrated service provider in the civil explosives sector [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical industry, suggesting a new cycle may begin due to improved domestic supply and demand, increased global market share, and declining crude oil prices [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle driven by domestic supply-demand improvements and global market share growth, despite potential short-term impacts from overseas demand [3][5]. - The report highlights that the supply side is gradually improving due to reduced fixed asset investment growth and government policies aimed at curbing excessive competition [5][10]. - On the demand side, domestic consumption is anticipated to recover steadily, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption and stabilize the economy [26][33]. - Cost factors are favorable, with significant declines in international crude oil and domestic coal prices, which will support the profitability of chemical products [42][49]. - The report recommends specific companies within various segments of the chemical industry, including refrigerants, amino acids, military and new materials, and fertilizers, indicating potential investment opportunities [5][57]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The report notes that the chemical industry has faced profitability pressures since 2022, but the current production cycle is nearing its end, which may lead to gradual improvement in profitability as capacity is digested [11][12]. - China's global market share in chemical products has been steadily increasing, with 2023 figures showing a 43.1% share of global sales [25][20]. Demand Side - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is expected to recover, aided by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [26][33]. - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, which could further support demand for chemical products [33]. Cost Side - The report highlights a significant decline in crude oil prices, with Brent crude falling by 14.71% since the beginning of 2025, which is expected to positively impact the cost structure of the chemical industry [42][38]. - Domestic coal and natural gas prices have also shown a downward trend, enhancing the cost competitiveness of chemical products [49][47]. Valuation - The report indicates that the valuation of the basic chemical and petrochemical sectors is at historical lows, suggesting substantial room for recovery as market conditions improve [54][50].

浙江巨化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 25 日发布《公 司 2024 年年度报告》、2025 年 4 月 29 日发布《公司 2025 年第一季度报告》， 为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司2024年度和2025年第一季度的经营成 果、财务状况，公司计划于 2025 年 5 月 20 日（星期二）下午 15:00-16:00 举行 2024 年度暨 2025 年第一季度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 股票代码：600160 股票简称：巨化股份 公告编号：临 2025-24 浙江巨化股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年度暨 2025 年第一季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： （网址：https://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心视频直播和网络互动 投资者可于 2025 年 5 月 13 日 （星期二） 至 5 月 19 日 （星期一） 16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏 ...

巨化股份 2024 年年度股东大会会议资料 2024 年年度股东大会会议资料 浙江巨化股份有限公司 2025 年 5 月 15 日 1 巨化股份 2024 年年度股东大会会议资料 目 录 | 2024 | 年年度股东大会议程 3 | | --- | --- | | 2024 | 年年度股东大会议事规则及注意事项 5 | | 审议议案： | | | 1、公司董事会 2024 | 年度工作报告 7 | | 2、公司监事会 2024 | 年度工作报告 35 | | 3、公司 2024 | 年年度报告及摘要 39 | | 4、公司 2024 | 年度财务决算报告 40 | | 5、公司 2025 | 年度财务预算报告 46 | | 6、公司 2024 | 年度利润分配方案 51 | | 7、关于聘请 2025 | 年度财务和内部控制审计机构以及支付 2024 年度审计机构报酬的 | | 议案 | 5 2 | | 8、关于为子公司申请银行（金融机构）贷款提供担保的议案 55 | | | 9、公司日常关联交易 | 2024 年度计划执行情况与 2025 年度计划的议案 58 | | 10、关于公司与巨化集团财务有限责任公 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The chemical sector is currently in a bottoming phase, influenced by macroeconomic factors and overcapacity, with performance fluctuating within a range of ±10% year-on-year. Certain sub-sectors like refrigerants, pesticides, fertilizers, and modified plastics are performing well, showing resilience against macroeconomic impacts [2][47]. Company-Specific Insights Zhenhua Co., Ltd. - Zhenhua's net profit for Q1 2025 was 117 million yuan, a 37% year-on-year increase. The company is expected to see significant growth in Q2 due to strong demand for metallic chromium and high-temperature alloys, with annual profits potentially reaching 1.5 to 1.6 billion yuan following capacity expansion [1][3][4][7]. Refrigerant Industry - The refrigerant market has outperformed expectations, with leading companies like Juhua and Sanmei reporting substantial profit increases (Juhua's net profit grew by 108% and Sanmei by 178% in 2024). The average price of refrigerants has risen significantly, with some products like R32 exceeding 50,000 yuan per ton [1][8][9][10][11]. Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chemicals sector has shown strong performance, driven by cost support and export demand. Companies like Yangnong Chemical have increased operational loads to boost profits. The focus is on the impact of export policies on phosphate fertilizers [1][15][16][17]. Polyester Filament Industry - The polyester filament industry had a good Q1 but faces pressures from falling oil prices and uncertain tariff policies. As oil prices stabilize, market elasticity may increase [1][21][22][23]. Refining Sector - Companies like Rongsheng and Hengli in the refining sector saw significant profit improvements in Q1 due to a rebound in crude oil cracking margins. The low oil prices positively impacted downstream demand, helping to reduce costs and increase profits [1][24][25]. Future Trends and Strategies - The chemical sector is advised to focus on sub-sectors with low correlation to trade wars, such as refrigerants and new materials. Investors are encouraged to wait for low oil price points to optimize investment opportunities [2][5][6]. Additional Insights - The refrigerant industry is characterized by stable demand and pricing power held by leading companies, making it less sensitive to economic downturns. The potential for significant price increases remains, with a long cycle expected [9][10][11]. - The agricultural sector is expected to maintain growth, particularly in the phosphate fertilizer market, contingent on favorable export policies [17][40]. - The tire industry faces challenges from tariffs and is adapting through price increases and strategic market positioning [44][45]. Conclusion - The chemical industry presents various investment opportunities, particularly in sectors with strong fundamentals and less exposure to macroeconomic volatility. Companies with independent growth narratives, like Zhenhua, are highlighted as having significant profit potential [2][6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of 23,219.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,185.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [6][35] - In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue of 5,602.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and a net profit of 369.7 billion yuan, which is an increase of 11.8% year-on-year [6][35] - The profitability of the industry showed a sales gross margin of 17.2% in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin of 0.1% [6][35] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry saw a revenue of 91,986.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while total profits decreased by 8.6% [5][26] - Fixed asset investment in the industry increased by 8.6% year-on-year, but the growth rate declined by 4.8 percentage points [5][26] Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the basic chemical sector experienced revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a net profit increase of 11.8% [6][35] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2025 was 17.2%, reflecting a slight decrease year-on-year but an increase compared to the previous quarter [6][35] Sub-industry Analysis - In 2024, the chlor-alkali and textile chemical products sub-industries showed significant profit growth, with chlor-alkali achieving a net profit growth of 262.8% [40][41] - For Q1 2025, the chlor-alkali sub-industry continued to lead with a net profit growth of 132.2% [41] Key Company Tracking - Major companies in the basic chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, reported significant net profit growth in 2024, with many companies experiencing a decrease in capital expenditures [5][6][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the chemical industry, highlighting the recovery at the bottom of the cycle and the focus on undervalued high-growth stocks [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic assessment of the chemical industry indicates a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term. Natural gas prices are fluctuating at the bottom [3][4]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in profitability for the chemical sector in Q1 2025, driven by terminal inventory replenishment and improved demand, despite ongoing construction projects peaking and declining [3]. - The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 is projected to reach 2.0601 trillion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, while net profit is expected to decline by 3% to 109.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current oil prices are influenced by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff policies, with Brent crude averaging $80.93 per barrel in 2024, down 2% year-on-year. NYMEX natural gas futures are expected to average $2.41 per million British thermal units, down 10% year-on-year [3][4]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a "V"-shaped recovery in market conditions, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 9% year-on-year to 32.8 billion yuan [3]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Chemical, as well as growth stocks in semiconductor materials and OLED technologies [3]. - The tire industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and cost reductions, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire highlighted for potential investment [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential in the chemical sector, particularly in segments like agricultural chemicals and specialty chemicals [3]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in price differentials, with PPI data showing a slow recovery from negative values towards zero [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory levels and price movements in key chemical products, as these factors will influence future profitability and investment opportunities [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][18]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 24.462 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.43% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.96 billion yuan, up 107.69% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 6.556 billion yuan, a 41.21% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 702 million yuan, up 256.83% year-on-year [1][3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a 6.05% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 809 million yuan, up 160.64% year-on-year [1][3]. - The report highlights that refrigerant prices have continued to rise, supporting performance, while high polymer material prices have rebounded after hitting a low [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 24.462 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.4%. The net profit is expected to be 1.96 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 107.7% [3][8]. - The company is forecasted to achieve revenues of 30.593 billion yuan in 2025 and 34.408 billion yuan in 2026, with respective growth rates of 25.1% and 12.5% [3][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.967 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 102.5%, and for 2026, it is expected to be 4.853 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.3% [3][8]. Market Position and Pricing Dynamics - The company is positioned as a leader in the refrigerant market, particularly in the third-generation refrigerants, which are expected to continue to see price increases due to industry dynamics and pricing power shifting towards the refrigerant segment [1][7]. - The report indicates that the average price of various refrigerants has increased significantly, with the average price of R32 reaching 4.4 million yuan per ton in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 98.7% [1][7]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company's stock is set at 36.75 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 25x for 2025, reflecting the company's strong market position and growth potential [3][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in 2024, with projected revenue of 24.46 billion yuan (up 18.4% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.96 billion yuan (up 107.7% year-on-year) [2][4] - The refrigerant industry is experiencing an upward trend, with prices expected to continue rising, benefiting the company as a leading player in the market [4][9] - The company has completed the acquisition of Feiyuan Chemical, enhancing its market position and benefiting from price increases in refrigerants [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 24.46 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.96 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 1.90 billion yuan [2][4] - The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of 6.56 billion yuan (up 41.2% year-on-year) and a net profit of 700 million yuan (up 256.8% year-on-year) [2][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 621 million yuan, representing 31.7% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2] Industry Outlook - The refrigerant industry is expected to see improved demand, with the total production and sales of household air conditioners projected to exceed 200 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [4] - The average price of refrigerants is expected to rise, with a reported increase of 32.7% year-on-year [4][9] - The company’s refrigerant revenue is projected to reach 9.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.1% [4] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.97 billion yuan, 4.94 billion yuan, and 6.32 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the refrigerant market, with anticipated increases in both sales volume and prices [4][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to significantly increase due to the high demand for refrigerants, with prices and profits likely to accelerate as the peak season approaches [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a year-on-year increase in net profit of 161%, driven by rising average prices of refrigerants [7] - The company is projected to benefit from the upward price movement of second and third-generation refrigerants, with net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 4.163 billion, 5.435 billion, and 7.123 billion respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 24.462 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.4% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 4.163 billion, reflecting a 112.4% year-on-year growth [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.54 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 [2] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 25.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of 68.601 billion [3] - The price-to-book ratio is 3.7, and the dividend yield is 0.43% [3] Sales and Price Trends - In Q1 2025, the company sold 69,800 tons of refrigerants, with an average selling price of 37,504 yuan per ton, marking a 58% year-on-year increase [7] - The average price of refrigerants such as R22, R32, and R134a has seen significant increases, indicating strong market demand [7] Segment Performance - The fluorinated polymer segment showed a year-on-year sales increase of 10%, while the fluorinated fine chemicals segment experienced a 33% quarter-on-quarter sales increase [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of second and third-generation refrigerants due to supply constraints and increasing downstream demand [7]