Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 巨化股份 (Juhua Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Industry Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Performance - The number of visitors at the 2025 Refrigeration Exhibition has increased, indicating strong domestic and foreign demand, which is expected to drive company performance growth this year [2][4] - The Chinese air conditioning industry benefits from domestic economic recovery, global warming, and the Belt and Road Initiative, with significant export potential, especially in markets with low air conditioning penetration like India [2][7] Product Development and Opportunities - The fourth-generation refrigerants are maturing, with new projects in Gansu signaling a large release of domestic capacity that meets environmental standards and market demand, presenting growth opportunities for related companies [2][10] - The exit of 3M from the fluorinated materials market creates opportunities for the fluorinated refrigerant market, with Juhua establishing a joint venture for commercial promotion and focusing on semiconductor fluids and high-end fluorinated oils [2][28] Regulatory Environment - The national quota management mechanism requires a 10% reduction in application volume by 2029, necessitating strict control of production quotas while considering domestic and international market demands and environmental requirements [2][15] Market Trends and Insights - Genuine market research should focus on current market demands and trends, such as transparent initial installation market data, increasing production volumes, and the impact of weather on consumer markets, which may indicate strong annual performance for companies like Juhua [2][16] - The air conditioning industry faces challenges from a declining real estate market but also has significant export potential due to the Belt and Road Initiative and increasing demand from global warming [2][8] Future Projections - The industry is expected to see a significant increase in fourth-generation refrigerant production capacity, with a projected capacity of 35,000 tons by 2029 [2][11] - Companies must consider long-term planning and adapt to technological changes while maintaining current operations and focusing on innovation and patent development to secure competitive advantages [2][20] Price Dynamics - The price fluctuations in the refrigerant market are primarily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases expected in 2025 due to high demand and supply shortages [2][21][22] Strategic Planning - Juhua has a clear strategic plan for R&D and innovation, focusing on fluorinated materials and new refrigerants, while also addressing potential patent restrictions and ensuring a competitive edge through technological advancements [2][29][30] Industry Competitiveness - The Chinese chemical industry has made significant progress from a "copying" model to one of independent innovation, with the potential to surpass international leaders in certain areas through technology introduction and self-research [2][31] Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment in 2025 is expected to be stable, with positive export conditions and a focus on safety and industry realities, supporting future growth [2][32]

Group 1 - The fluorochemical index decreased by 6.06% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.95% [1][2] - The fluorochemical index closed at 3570.93 points, increasing by 6.61% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.05%, the CSI 300 Index by 6.23%, the basic chemical index by 3.28%, and the new materials index by 5.17% [1][2] Group 2 - Global demand for air conditioning is surging, leading to further increases in refrigerant prices [3] - In South Korea, Samsung Electronics' air conditioner sales in Q1 2025 increased by 51% year-on-year, while LG Electronics saw a 60% increase [3] - India's air conditioning market is expected to grow by 20% to 25% in 2025, with projected sales of 15 to 16 million units [3] - Major Chinese refrigerant manufacturers have raised prices by 500 to 2500 yuan/ton for various refrigerant models, with R32 and R134a increasing by 5.21% and 4.35% respectively [3][4] Group 3 - As of April 25, the average market price for fluorite was 3,698 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous week, but up 7.21% year-on-year [4] - Refrigerant prices as of April 25 include R32 at 48,500 yuan/ton (up 1.04%), R125 at 45,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and R134a at 47,000 yuan/ton (up 1.08%) [5] Group 4 - Recommended stocks benefiting from the fluorochemical industry include Jinshi Resources, Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Haohua Technology [6] - Other beneficiaries include Dongyangguang, Yonghe Co., Dongyue Group, and Xinzhoubang [6]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was CNY 5,800,379,445.02, representing a 6.05% increase compared to CNY 5,469,669,751.07 in the same period last year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 808,787,245.43, a significant increase of 160.64% from CNY 310,313,858.05 year-on-year[4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was CNY 788,870,535.43, up 173.94% from CNY 287,967,192.37 in the previous year[4] - Basic earnings per share increased to CNY 0.300, reflecting a growth of 160.87% compared to CNY 0.115 in the same quarter last year[5] - The weighted average return on equity rose to 4.44%, an increase of 2.63 percentage points from 1.81%[5] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was CNY 898.29 million, a significant increase from CNY 330.16 million in Q1 2024, representing a growth of approximately 172%[18] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was CNY 808.79 million, up from CNY 310.31 million in the same period last year, marking a growth of about 161%[18] - The basic and diluted earnings per share for Q1 2025 were CNY 0.300, compared to CNY 0.115 in Q1 2024, reflecting an increase of 160%[18] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of CNY 898.46 million for Q1 2025, compared to CNY 333.82 million in Q1 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 169%[18] Cash Flow and Assets - The net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 488,129,275.64, showing a 5.02% increase from CNY 464,813,800.01 in the same period last year[4] - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased to ¥3,357,092,195.38 from ¥2,625,008,090.90, reflecting a growth of 27.87%[12] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025 totaled CNY 2.94 billion, up from CNY 1.30 billion at the end of Q1 2024, representing an increase of about 127%[21] - The net cash flow from investing activities for Q1 2025 was negative at CNY -397.77 million, an improvement from CNY -1.33 billion in Q1 2024[21] - The cash inflow from financing activities in Q1 2025 was CNY 948 million, down from CNY 1.70 billion in Q1 2024, indicating a decrease of about 44%[21] Shareholder Information - The number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 53,049, with the largest shareholder, Juhua Group Co., Ltd., holding 52.70% of the shares[9] Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs decreased to ¥4,755,587,347.26, down 7.19% from ¥5,124,834,107.79 in the same period last year[17] - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was ¥1,038,425,616.23, significantly higher than ¥360,621,123.85 in Q1 2024, marking a growth of 187.57%[17] - The company reported a significant increase in R&D expenses to ¥280,479,311.22, up 30.39% from ¥215,210,004.16 in Q1 2024[17] Balance Sheet Highlights - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were CNY 29,940,116,719.48, a 7.26% increase from CNY 27,913,610,331.15 at the end of the previous year[5] - The total assets of the company reached ¥29,940,116,719.48, an increase of 7.27% from ¥27,913,610,331.15[14] - Accounts receivable rose to ¥1,657,370,818.35, up 103.57% from ¥815,729,855.12 year-over-year[12] - Inventory levels increased to ¥2,771,945,374.30, a rise of 21.43% compared to ¥2,283,118,773.97 at the end of 2024[12] - Long-term borrowings increased to ¥3,406,067,380.49, up 25.73% from ¥2,707,555,052.76[14] Strategic Outlook - The company has not disclosed any significant new strategies or future outlook in this report[11]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and the CSI 300 Chemical Index reported 2080.97 points, with a decline of 8.46% in the past month, 4.44% in the past three months, and 6.01% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [1] - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Chemical Index are: Wanhua Chemical (23.25%), Salt Lake Industry (13.52%), Baofeng Energy (7.58%), Juhua Co. (7.48%), Hengli Petrochemical (7.2%), Satellite Chemical (7.1%), Hualu Hengsheng (6.86%), Zangge Mining (6.26%), Longbai Group (6.04%), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (5.49%) [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry composition within the CSI 300 Chemical Index, other chemical raw materials account for 39.27%, polyurethane for 23.25%, potassium fertilizer for 19.79%, fluorochemical for 7.48%, titanium dioxide for 6.04%, and organic silicon for 4.17% [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made when the CSI 300 Index sample is modified [2]

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 杨蝶 氟化工龙头巨化股份（600160.SH）业绩逆势复苏。 4月24日晚间，巨化股份发布2024年年度报告，公司全年实现营业收入244.62亿元，同比增长18.43%； 归属于上市公司股东的净利润（以下简称"净利润"）19.6亿元，同比增长107.69%。 长江商报记者注意到，作为国内唯一拥有第一至四代含氟制冷剂系列产品的企业，巨化股份竞争优势明 显。2024年，化工行业规模以上企业利润总额同比下降8.6%，而同处该行业的巨化股份业绩却逆势大 幅增长。 巨化股份将业绩增长主要归因于，公司第二、三代氟制冷剂价格合理性回归上行。 业绩稳健之下，巨化股份继续稳定分红。公司宣布，2024年拟派发现金红利6.21亿元。算上此次分红， 公司自1998年上市以来，累计派现达59.73亿元。 对此，巨化股份称，主要原因系公司第二、三代氟制冷剂在生产配额制下，供需格局、竞争格局、竞争 秩序优化，下游需求改善等，产品价格合理性回归上行，涨幅较大，盈利大幅增长。 巨化股份表示，预计2025年公司氟制冷剂产品实际均价仍将上移，盈利水平及盈利比重进一步提升。 根据此前公布的2025年一季度业绩预告，公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the chemical industry, particularly in the compound fertilizer and pesticide sectors, while recommending "Hold" for others [17]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing an optimization in supply and demand dynamics, leading to a recovery in the compound fertilizer, metal chromium, and niche pesticide markets. The report highlights investment opportunities in undervalued high-growth companies [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the positive performance of listed companies in Q1 2025, particularly in the compound fertilizer sector, and suggests focusing on companies like Xin Yang Feng, Stanley, and Yun Tu Holdings for investment opportunities [3][4]. - The report notes that metal chromium prices have surged to 75,000 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 7,500 CNY/ton, driven by rising demand from the stainless steel sector and new military spending in Europe [3][4]. - The agricultural chemical market is entering its traditional peak season, with stable trading volumes for seasonal crop pesticides. Specific products like Acetochlor and Avermectin are seeing price increases, with recommendations for companies like Xian Da and Li Min [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions in the chemical sector indicate a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium term [4][6]. - The chemical industry PPI data shows a gradual recovery from negative values, with March 2025 PPI at -2.8% year-on-year, indicating a potential bottoming out of the cycle [6][8]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Sector - The report highlights that the domestic urea price is currently at 1,800 CNY/ton, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.6%. The compound fertilizer sector is experiencing a decrease in operating rates, leading to increased inventory levels [10]. - The pesticide market is witnessing a seasonal peak, with stable trading volumes and price adjustments in various pesticide products, including a price increase for Pyrazole [10][19]. Chemical Products Pricing and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed pricing data for various chemical products, indicating fluctuations in prices for PTA, MEG, and PVC, with specific attention to the impact of raw material costs and market demand [10][11][12]. - The report notes that the market for fluorinated chemicals is facing supply constraints due to mining restrictions, while the demand remains weak, leading to price adjustments [12][19]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and Yun Tianhua in the fertilizer and pesticide sectors [17][18]. - Companies in the tire and fluorochemical sectors are also highlighted for their potential benefits from recovering domestic demand and cost reductions [3][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 24.46 billion yuan (YoY +18%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.96 billion yuan (YoY +108%) [8] - The significant growth in the refrigerant business, driven by rising prices, has positively impacted profitability, outweighing the negative effects from non-refrigerant segments [8] - The company is expected to benefit from an improved industry landscape in 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 4.16 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.54 yuan [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: 20.66 billion yuan - 2024: 24.46 billion yuan - 2025E: 27.86 billion yuan - 2026E: 30.82 billion yuan - 2027E: 33.82 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow significantly: - 2023: 944 million yuan - 2024: 1.96 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.16 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.44 billion yuan - 2027E: 7.12 billion yuan - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 32.9% by 2027 [2][10] Market Data - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 25.15 yuan, with a market capitalization of 67.90 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 72 for 2023, decreasing to 10 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][10] Business Performance Highlights - In 2024, the company achieved a refrigerant sales volume of 353,000 tons (YoY +23%) and an average selling price of 26,765 yuan/ton (YoY +33%) [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan per share, totaling 621 million yuan, which is 31.69% of the net profit for the period [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising prices of second and third-generation refrigerants due to a favorable supply-demand dynamic [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a declining trend in public fund allocation to the chemical industry, with the allocation ratio dropping to 4.1% in Q1 2025, down 1.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a historical low level [1][11]. Core Insights - The focus of public funds has shifted, with a notable decrease in the concentration of holdings in leading companies within the chemical sector. The top ten heavyweights' market capitalization share fell from 46.2% in Q4 2024 to 41.9% in Q1 2025 [1]. - Attention has been primarily directed towards the civil explosives and fluorochemical sectors in Q1 2025, with significant increases in holdings for companies like Guangdong Hongda and Zhenhua Co., while reductions were seen in companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Xinzhou Bang [2][3]. - The report highlights a strong interest in sectors with price increase potential, such as fluorochemicals, chromium salts, and pesticides, alongside improving supply-demand dynamics in the civil explosives sector [3]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Allocation Trends - The allocation of public funds to the chemical industry has been on a downward trajectory since Q2 2022, with the market capitalization share decreasing to 4.1% in Q1 2025, marking a significant decline from previous years [11][12]. Individual Stock Movements - Key stocks that saw increased holdings include Guangdong Hongda, Zhenhua Co., and Saint Spring Group, while major reductions were noted for Wanhua Chemical and Xinzhou Bang [2][16]. - The top ten companies by market capitalization in the chemical sector accounted for 52.2% of total holdings, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points [11][15]. Sector Performance - The report identifies the top five sectors by fund holdings in Q1 2025 as other chemical products (13.36 billion), polyurethane (5.91 billion), tires (5.18 billion), fluorochemicals and refrigerants (4.96 billion), and other chemical raw materials (3.85 billion) [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with price increase potential and strong domestic demand, particularly civil explosives, while also highlighting opportunities in new materials such as AI materials [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" with a current price of 24.74 CNY [1] Core Views - The company has significantly increased its profits due to the upward cycle of refrigerants, with a 2024 revenue of 24.462 billion CNY, an 18.43% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.960 billion CNY, a 107.69% increase year-on-year [3][4] - The supply-demand structure of fluorinated refrigerants has improved, leading to sustained price increases, which is a major driver of the company's profit growth [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.462 billion CNY, up 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.960 billion CNY, up 107.69% year-on-year [3][4] - The profit distribution plan for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 2.3 CNY per 10 shares (tax included) [3] Business Segments - The fluorochemical raw materials segment saw a production increase of 6.22% year-on-year, while external sales decreased by 4.59%. The average monthly sales price increased by 23.19%, leading to a total revenue increase of 17.54% [4] - The refrigerant segment experienced a production and sales volume increase of 21.12% and 22.61% respectively, with a revenue of 9.447 billion CNY, a 62.69% increase year-on-year [5] - The fluorinated fine chemicals segment saw a dramatic increase in production and sales volume by 148.99% and 254.95% respectively, with a revenue increase of 99.48% [6] Market Outlook - The company holds the largest production quotas for HCFC-22 and HFCs in the country, with 3.89 million tons and 299,800 tons respectively, which is 26.10% and 39.6% of the national total [4] - The refrigerant industry is expected to continue benefiting from strong domestic demand in air conditioning and automotive sectors, supported by government subsidies [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.764 billion CNY in 2025, 3.323 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.815 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.2, 20.1, and 17.5 [7][9]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月25日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 优于大市 2024 年业绩快速增长，制冷剂价格持续提升 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 基础化工·化学制品 | 证券分析师：杨林 | 证券分析师：张歆钰 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005379 | 021-60375408 | | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520120002 | S0980524080004 | | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 收盘价 | 24.74 元 | | 总市值/流通市值 | 66792/66792 百万元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 26.72/14.25 元 | | 近 3 个月日均成交额 | 558.94 百万元 | 市场走势 相关研究报告 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-制冷剂价格持续提升，一季度业绩大 幅增长》 ——2025-04-08 《巨化股份（600160.SH）-增资控股甘肃巨化新材料，夯实国内 氟化工龙头地位》 — ...