Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 50.537 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.919 billion yuan, down 29.41% year-on-year and 27.33% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company faced short-term pressure on performance due to maintenance activities in Yantai and BC, which affected production and sales volumes. The prices of TDI and other products have also declined [1] - Future demand for MDI is expected to improve due to the "old-for-new" policy and anticipated interest rate cuts in the US, which may support prices as the downstream demand enters the peak season before the Spring Festival [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175.361 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 191.805 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.4% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 16.816 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 15.307 billion yuan in 2024, which represents a decline of 9.0% [4][7] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 16.8% in 2023 and slightly decrease to 16.1% in 2024, before recovering to 17.7% in 2025 and 2026 [4][7] Production and Capacity - The production volumes for Q3 2024 were 1.38 million tons for polyurethane, 1.3 million tons for petrochemicals, and 450,000 tons for new materials, with respective quarter-on-quarter changes of -6.1%, -5.8%, and -15.1% [1] - The company is advancing the construction and commissioning of new MDI and TDI facilities in Ningbo and Fujian, with long-term plans to expand MDI capacity to 1.5 million tons per year [1][2] Market Outlook - The export volume of polymer MDI reached 1.0437 million tons in 2023, while pure MDI exports were 121,000 tons, indicating sustained high export levels despite weak overseas demand [1][2] - The overall petrochemical segment is expected to maintain revenue growth, supported by limited impacts from LPG trade and PDH maintenance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 147.604 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.35%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.093 billion RMB, down 12.67% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 5.054 billion RMB, up 12.48% year-on-year, but the net profit dropped 29.41% to 2.918 billion RMB, aligning with expectations [1]. - The overall business remains stable, although financial and income tax expenses have increased. Sales expenses rose by 16.83% to 1.166 billion RMB, management expenses increased by 26.20% to 2.187 billion RMB, and financial expenses surged by 43.07% to 1.694 billion RMB, primarily due to increased interest expenses from rising interest-bearing liabilities. R&D expenses also grew by 26.14% to 2.186 billion RMB, indicating a commitment to high-level R&D investment for long-term technological foundations [1]. - The prices of major products have declined while raw material prices have risen, leading to a narrowing of profit margins. The average market price for pure MDI products in Q3 was around 19,500 RMB/ton, while for aggregated MDI products, it was approximately 17,800 RMB/ton. TDI products saw an average market price of 13,500 RMB/ton, and soft foam polyether products averaged 8,700 RMB/ton. The overall price level for petrochemical products in Q3 compared to the same period last year has shifted downward, resulting in reduced industry chain profits [1]. - The report projects the company's net profits for 2024-2026 to be 16.205 billion RMB (-10.28%), 20.951 billion RMB (+2.7%), and 22.925 billion RMB (+4.5%), respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.16, 6.67, and 7.30 RMB/share. The current market capitalization corresponds to P/E ratios of 14.52X, 11.23X, and 10.26X for the respective years [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 147.604 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 11.35%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.093 billion RMB, down 12.67% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.054 billion RMB, up 12.48% year-on-year, while the net profit was 2.918 billion RMB, down 29.41% [1]. Expense Analysis - Sales expenses increased by 16.83% to 1.166 billion RMB, management expenses rose by 26.20% to 2.187 billion RMB, and financial expenses surged by 43.07% to 1.694 billion RMB due to increased interest expenses [1]. - R&D expenses grew by 26.14% to 2.186 billion RMB, reflecting a commitment to sustained high-level R&D investment [1]. Product Pricing and Market Conditions - Major product prices have declined, with pure MDI products averaging 19,500 RMB/ton, aggregated MDI products at 17,800 RMB/ton, TDI products at 13,500 RMB/ton, and soft foam polyether products at 8,700 RMB/ton [1]. - The overall price level for petrochemical products has shifted downward compared to the previous year, leading to reduced industry chain profits [1]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 16.205 billion RMB (-10.28%), 20.951 billion RMB (+2.7%), and 22.925 billion RMB (+4.5%), with corresponding EPS of 5.16, 6.67, and 7.30 RMB/share [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [3][5]. Core Views - The company has faced pressure on its current performance, with a year-on-year decline in net profit, but the long-term growth trend remains intact [1]. - The company has seen steady growth in sales volume across its main product lines, with all three major segments (polyurethane, petrochemicals, and fine chemicals/new materials) showing quarterly year-on-year growth rates exceeding 15% [2]. - Several projects are progressing steadily, and adverse factors affecting performance are expected to dissipate in the fourth quarter, allowing for recovery in related businesses [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 147.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.67% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported sales revenue of 50.537 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.48%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.73% [1]. - The company’s main product sales volumes in Q3 2024 were 1.41 million tons for polyurethane (up 15.97% year-on-year), 1.32 million tons for petrochemicals (up 15.04% year-on-year), and 500,000 tons for fine chemicals and new materials (up 15.38% year-on-year) [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.846 billion yuan, 17.674 billion yuan, and 20.519 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17x, 14x, and 12x [3][4]. - The expected growth rates for operating revenue from 2024 to 2026 are 5.9%, 13.4%, and 18.4%, respectively [4][6]. Key Projects and Developments - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through ongoing projects, including the expansion of MDI capacity in Fujian from 400,000 tons/year to 800,000 tons/year and the successful commissioning of an 180,000 tons/year hexamethylenediamine project in Ningbo [2][3]. - The company is also advancing new business lines, including the production of lemon aldehyde and flavoring agents, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][14]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 147.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% to 11.1 billion yuan [1]. - The increase in costs has pressured product margins, leading to a decline in gross margin in Q3 2024 [1]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its ethane raw material usage, which is expected to enhance long-term profitability in the petrochemical sector [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 50.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.48%, but a net profit of 2.92 billion yuan, down 29.41% year-on-year [1][3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 13.40%, down 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased operating costs [1]. - The company plans to enhance its MDI production capacity, with expectations to increase total capacity to 4.8 million tons per year, which could boost its global market share to over 40% [1]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 15.3 billion, 18.5 billion, and 22.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on industry recovery [1][3]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 88.2 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 15 times for 2025 [2][1].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 万华化学（600309.SH） 优于大市 三季度归母净利下滑，新项目稳步推进 2024 年三季度公司营收同比提升，归母净利润同环比下滑。公司 2024 年三 季度营收 505.4 亿元（同比+12%，环比-1%），归母净利润 29.2 亿元（同 比-29%，环比-27%）；销售毛利率/净利率为 13.4%/6.6%，同环比下滑； 期间费用率 5.8%，同环比略有提升。三季度营收同比提升，但归母净利 润、毛利率、净利率同环比下滑，盈利短期承压。2024 年前三季度，公 司多套装置完成技改扩产及新产能投产，主要产品产销量实现同比增 长。然而，部分主营产品价格同比下降，但主要原材料价格持续维持高 位，同时公司烟台、欧洲主要装置集中检修，导致三季度利润同比下降。 聚氨酯板块营收及产销量均同比增长，需求整体疲软。2024 年三季度公司 聚氨酯板块营收 187.9 亿元（同比+8.5%，环比+4.7%），产量/销量为 138/141 万吨（同比+16%/+14%，环比-6%/+2%）。2024 年第三季度，聚 氨酯下游需求整体疲软，纯 MDI、TDI 等产品价格出现下降趋势， ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was ¥50,536,786,854.36, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48%[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was ¥2,918,951,589.81, a decrease of 29.41% compared to the same period last year[2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥2,828,985,853.35, down 31.30% year-on-year[5] - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 147.604 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.35%[8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 11.093 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.67%[9] - Net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 12.30 billion, down from RMB 13.86 billion in 2023, indicating a decrease of approximately 11.3%[15] - The total comprehensive income for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 12.50 billion, compared to RMB 13.83 billion in 2023, indicating a decline of approximately 9.6%[15] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of the reporting period reached ¥309,641,134,354.74, an increase of 22.37% compared to the end of the previous year[3] - The company's total current assets as of September 30, 2024, amounted to CNY 91.904 billion, compared to CNY 61.864 billion at the end of 2023, reflecting a significant increase[10] - The company's total assets reached CNY 309.641 billion as of September 30, 2024, up from CNY 253.040 billion at the end of 2023[12] - The company's total liabilities as of September 30, 2024, were CNY 208.040 billion, compared to CNY 158.586 billion at the end of 2023[13] - The company's total liabilities were 112,718,215,888.40 RMB, compared to 82,594,056,664.98 RMB in the previous year[22] - The total liabilities and shareholders' equity reached CNY 176.29 billion, up from CNY 140.93 billion in the previous year[23] Shareholder Information - The company reported a total of 131,694 common shareholders at the end of the reporting period[6] - The top three shareholders held a combined 41.72% of the company's shares, with Yantai Guofeng Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. holding 21.59%[6] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for the year-to-date period was ¥19,305,479,618.20, reflecting a 12.65% increase[2] - Cash flow from operating activities totaled RMB 175.63 billion in 2024, up from RMB 141.66 billion in 2023, marking an increase of approximately 24.0%[18] - The company reported a total cash inflow from operating activities of CNY 52.47 billion, compared to CNY 41.84 billion in the same period last year, marking a growth of 25.5%[25] - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period reached 40,890,726,562.42 RMB, up from 40,019,104,080.89 RMB[19] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period amounted to CNY 16.67 billion, an increase from CNY 11.42 billion at the end of the same period in 2023[26] Costs and Expenses - Total operating costs increased to RMB 133.99 billion in 2024 from RMB 117.89 billion in 2023, reflecting a rise of about 13.6%[14] - Research and development expenses rose to RMB 3.22 billion in 2024 from RMB 2.88 billion in 2023, reflecting an increase of about 11.9%[14] - Selling expenses increased to RMB 1.17 billion in 2024, compared to RMB 997.66 million in 2023, a rise of approximately 17.0%[14] - The company's financial expenses rose significantly to CNY 634.17 million, compared to CNY 156.45 million in the previous year, primarily due to increased interest expenses[23] Market Strategy and Operations - The company experienced a decrease in net profit primarily due to a decline in product prices and an increase in raw material costs, leading to reduced gross margins[5] - The company is focusing on global, differentiated, and refined operations while maintaining low costs to adapt to market changes[8] - The company has completed several technical upgrades and expansions, contributing to the growth in production and sales volume of major products[8] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[16] - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new technologies to drive future growth[27] Inventory and Investments - The company's inventory as of September 30, 2024, was CNY 25.502 billion, an increase from CNY 20.650 billion at the end of 2023[10] - The long-term equity investments rose to 31,623,717,081.95 RMB from 27,205,431,381.34 RMB year-over-year[21] - The company's inventory increased to 6,053,643,590.93 RMB from 5,738,449,359.38 RMB in the previous year[21] - The company achieved an investment income of CNY 5.88 billion, a substantial increase from CNY 892.77 million in the same period last year[23]

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-55 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 2024年三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》之《第 十三号——化工》的相关规定，现将万华化学集团股份有限公司 2024 年前三季度主 要经营数据披露如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 2024 年前三季度公司聚氨酯系列产品实现销售收入 5,424,539 万元，石化系列 产品和 LPG 贸易实现销售收入 6,197,780 万元，精细化学品及新材料系列产品实现 销售收入 1,999,910 万元。 | 主要产品 | 产量（万吨） | 销量（万吨） | | --- | --- | --- | | 聚氨酯系列 | 421 | 410 | | 石化系列 | 407 | 407 | | 精细化学品及新材料系列 | 145 | 142 | 注：以上销量为各系列产品产量对应的销售量，包含产品系列之间的内部使用量。销 ...

当前价格（元） 78.22 日均成交额（百万） 2,382.54 2024 年 10 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 贾冰 S0350524030003 jiab@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 聚合 MDI 价格上涨，烟台产业园 PDH 装置复产 ——万华化学（600309）9 月月报 最近一年走势 投资要点: 化工行业未来的竞争优势在于"工程师红利"，万华化学是国内少有的 以技术创新驱动公司发展的典型。公司以优良文化为基础，通过技术创 新和卓越运营打造出高技术和低成本两大护城河。万华化学正以周期成 长股的步伐向全球化工巨头之列进军。 短期看，影响万华化学基本面的是产品的景气度，从表征指标来看，价 差是影响短期利润最核心的因素。万华化学的产品体系日益庞大，为更 好地表示公司景气的程度，我们将万华化学的产品体系作为一个整体， 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/18 按照现 ...

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 股票简称：万华化学 股票代码：600309 公告编号：临 2024-54 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 烟台产业园 PDH 装置复产公告 万华化学集团股份有限公司 2024 年 10 月 9 日 根据公司于 2024 年 8 月 23 日发布的"万华化学集团股份有限公司烟台产业园 PDH 装置停产检修公告"（公告编号：临 2024-45 号），烟台产业园 75 万吨/年 PDH 等 装置于 2024 年 8 月 25 日开始停产检修。 截至目前，上述装置的停产检修已经结束，恢复正常生产。 特此公告。 ...

Key Points **Industry/Company**: * **Company**: Wanhua Chemical Group (600309.SS) * **Industry**: Chemicals, Polyurethane, Specialty Chemicals, New Materials **Core Views and Arguments**: 1. **Resilience and Competitive Moats**: Wanhua Chemical Group is positioned as a resilient chemical producer with strong competitive moats, well-positioned to navigate volatile macro environments. The company's competitive advantages include: * **Manufacturing/Operational Excellence**: Wanhua is one of the lowest-cost producers in the polyurethane value chain, with reliable output and superior profitability compared to global peers. * **R&D Effectiveness**: Wanhua has a strong track record of successful new product development and commercialization, with a high R&D success rate. * **Supply Chain Integration**: Wanhua has a fully integrated supply chain, providing cost competitiveness and control over key raw materials and intermediates. 2. **Growth Outlook**: Wanhua's growth outlook is driven by: * **TAM Expansion**: The company is expanding its TAM through the development of performance chemicals and new materials segments, which are expected to grow significantly over the next decade. * **Market Share Gains**: Wanhua is expected to gain market share in most of the product segments it operates or plans to operate in, both within China and globally. 3. **Valuation**: Goldman Sachs' valuation analysis suggests a bear case valuation of Rmb70.8/share (-22% downside) and a blue sky scenario valuation of Rmb148.0/share (+62% upside) by 2035E. **Other Important Points**: 1. **Financial Performance**: Wanhua has delivered a solid 20%+ CAGR for both revenue and EBITDA over the past decade, making it one of the most profitable chemical producers in China. 2. **Capital Allocation**: Wanhua has allocated 2/3 of its capex to expand outside the polyurethane supply chain, positioning itself comprehensively across a variety of specialty chemical value chains and products. 3. **Risks**: Key risks include intensifying competition, geopolitical risks leading to potential trade restrictions, and slower-than-expected commercialization of new products. Key Points Breakdown **1. Industry/Company**: * **Company**: Wanhua Chemical Group (600309.SS) * **Industry**: Chemicals, Polyurethane, Specialty Chemicals, New Materials **2. Core Views and Arguments**: * **Resilience and Competitive Moats**: * **Manufacturing/Operational Excellence**: Wanhua is one of the lowest-cost producers in the polyurethane value chain, with reliable output and superior profitability compared to global peers. * **R&D Effectiveness**: Wanhua has a strong track record of successful new product development and commercialization, with a high R&D success rate. * **Supply Chain Integration**: Wanhua has a fully integrated supply chain, providing cost competitiveness and control over key raw materials and intermediates. * **Growth Outlook**: * **TAM Expansion**: The company is expanding its TAM through the development of performance chemicals and new materials segments, which are expected to grow significantly over the next decade. * **Market Share Gains**: Wanhua is expected to gain market share in most of the product segments it operates or plans to operate in, both within China and globally. * **Valuation**: * **Bear Case**: Rmb70.8/share (-22% downside) * **Blue Sky Scenario**: Rmb148.0/share (+62% upside) by 2035E **3. Other Important Points**: * **Financial Performance**: * 20%+ CAGR for both revenue and EBITDA over the past decade * One of the most profitable chemical producers in China * **Capital Allocation**: * 2/3 of capex allocated to expand outside the polyurethane supply chain * Positioning the company comprehensively across a variety of specialty chemical value chains and products * **Risks**: * Intensifying competition * Geopolitical risks leading to potential trade restrictions * Slower-than-expected commercialization of new products