Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 50.537 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.41% to 2.919 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in product prices and an increase in raw material costs [4][6] - The company has completed several technical upgrades and expansions, leading to a year-on-year increase in the sales volume of major products. In the first three quarters of 2024, the sales volume of the polyurethane series reached 4.1 million tons, up 14.21% year-on-year [4][5] - New production capacities are being launched, with significant advancements in self-developed POE industrialization and the successful commissioning of a 48,000 tons/year citral facility [5][6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 175.361 billion yuan in 2023 to 241.167 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.9% [7][10] - The net profit is expected to decline to 14.895 billion yuan in 2024 but is projected to recover to 22.250 billion yuan by 2026 [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.74 yuan in 2024, increasing to 7.09 yuan in 2026 [6][10] Product Performance - The polyurethane series is expected to generate revenue of 67.386 billion yuan in 2023, with a gross margin of 27.69% [8] - The petrochemical series is projected to have a revenue of 23.836 billion yuan in 2023, with a significantly lower gross margin of 3.51% [8] - The fine chemicals and new materials series are anticipated to generate 27.471 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a gross margin of 21.42% [8] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as Hualu Hengsheng and Yangnong Chemical, with an average PE ratio of 14.96 for 2023 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4][28]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 147.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% to 11.09 billion yuan [4][5]. - The polyurethane segment showed strong demand in the refrigeration sector, with Q3 sales reaching approximately 18.79 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, despite weak demand in the textile sector [6]. - The petrochemical segment faced pressure from high costs and declining product prices due to falling oil prices, with Q3 revenue of 22.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [7]. - The new materials segment continued to grow, with Q3 production up 15.4% year-on-year, although prices for key products like HDI and IPDI saw declines [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in terminal demand during the traditional peak season from September to November, supported by supply-side constraints [19][20]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 179.13 billion yuan, with a net profit of 15.03 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year [5][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 4.79 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 [5][25]. - The company maintains a healthy cash flow, with Q3 operating cash inflow of 9.01 billion yuan, supporting stable operations [11]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned to capture a significant share of the MDI market, with expectations of reaching nearly 40% global market share by 2025 due to new capacity expansions [4][20]. - High R&D investment and capital expenditures are expected to support the company's long-term growth and development as a leader in the global chemical industry [23][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9][18] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by weak macro demand, but new projects are progressing steadily [2][4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [2][4] - The company is expected to maintain growth with new capacity coming online, enhancing its competitive edge [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 50.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.7% [3][4] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.92 billion yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year and down 27.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 9 billion yuan, an increase of 31 million yuan year-on-year [3][4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 13.4%, down 4.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] Segment Performance Summary - The polyurethane segment generated revenue of 18.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 8.5% year-on-year [5] - The petrochemical segment achieved revenue of 22.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [5] - The fine chemicals and new materials segment reported revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [5] Price Spread Analysis - The average price spread for polymer MDI in Q3 2024 was 10,823 yuan/ton, up 2.5% year-on-year [6] - The average price spread for pure MDI decreased by 21.5% year-on-year to 11,886 yuan/ton [6] - The average price spread for TDI fell by 30.2% year-on-year to 9,243 yuan/ton [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 190.6 billion yuan, 230.5 billion yuan, and 261.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][18] - The net profit forecast for the same years is 14.9 billion yuan, 20.4 billion yuan, and 25.9 billion yuan respectively [10][18] - The company is projected to maintain a PE ratio of 16, 12, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wanhua Chemical [1][2] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to maintenance and rising costs, but its long-term growth potential remains promising [1][2] - The company achieved a revenue of 175.4 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 200.5 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 14% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline to 14.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a recovery projected in subsequent years [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue (Million Yuan)**: - 2022: 165,565 - 2023: 175,361 - 2024E: 200,467 - 2025E: 250,576 - 2026E: 280,911 [1] - **Net Profit (Million Yuan)**: - 2022: 16,234 - 2023: 16,816 - 2024E: 14,745 - 2025E: 18,008 - 2026E: 22,391 [1] - **Earnings Per Share (Yuan)**: - 2022: 5.17 - 2023: 5.36 - 2024E: 4.70 - 2025E: 5.74 - 2026E: 7.13 [1] - **Cash Flow Per Share**: - 2022: 11.57 - 2023: 8.53 - 2024E: 10.67 - 2025E: 12.45 - 2026E: 13.45 [1] - **Return on Equity**: - 2022: 20% - 2023: 18% - 2024E: 13% - 2025E: 14% - 2026E: 15% [1] Market and Industry Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in profitability due to maintenance and increased costs, with a significant drop in net profit in Q3 2024 [1][2] - The company is expanding its new materials segment, with significant projects like the POE and citral production facilities coming online, indicating a shift towards becoming a platform enterprise in new materials [2][3] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability driven by new capacity and improved market conditions in the petrochemical sector [2][3]

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——2024 年万华化学三季报点评 沈唯(分析师) 0755-23976795 [table_Authors] shenwei024936@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880523080006 本报告导读： 公司三季报业绩低于预期，但考虑到公司竞争优势仍突出且多项目投产在即，维持 "增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。由于公司 Q3 业绩低于预期，下调公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 4.62/6.00/7.94 元（原为 6.27/7.51/8.50 元）。参考可比 公司估值，给予公司 2025 年 15.13 倍 PE，维持目标价为 90.76 元。 公司 Q3 业绩低于预期。公司 2024 年前三季度实现收入 1476 亿元， 同比+11.35%，实现归母净利润 110.93 亿元，同比-12.67%。其中， 公司 2024Q3 单季度实现收入 505.4 亿，同比+12.48%，环比-0.73%； 单季度归母净利润 29.2 亿，同比-29.41%，环比-27.33%。盈利能力 方面，Q3 毛利率 13. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 147.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13% [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 50.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27% [2][6] - The decline in profit in Q3 was attributed to maintenance shutdowns at major facilities in Yantai and Europe, along with a decrease in product prices, while raw material prices remained high. However, recovery of production capacity post-maintenance is expected to improve profitability in the short term [2][6] - The company has a robust pipeline of projects in polyurethane, petrochemicals, and new materials, with a balance of ongoing construction projects amounting to 69.7 billion yuan as of the end of Q3 2024, which is expected to contribute to performance growth in the future [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the polyurethane segment generated revenue of 18.8 billion yuan, with production and sales volumes of 1.38 million tons and 1.41 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 16% and 14% [6] - The petrochemical segment's production and sales volumes were 1.3 million tons and 1.32 million tons, respectively, both down 6% quarter-on-quarter, while revenue was 22.4 billion yuan, up 42% year-on-year [6] - The fine chemicals and new materials segment achieved sales of 500,000 tons, with revenue of 7.02 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11% [6] Future Outlook - The company expects operating revenues for 2024-2026 to be 191.3 billion yuan, 222.7 billion yuan, and 257.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 16%, and 16%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 15.3 billion yuan, 18.6 billion yuan, and 22.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -9%, +22%, and +23% [6][7] - The company maintains a strong competitive position in the MDI market and is transitioning towards a comprehensive chemical company, justifying the "Buy" rating [6][7]

基础化工/化学制品 公 司 研 究 Q3 利润短期承压，看好未来业绩修复和长期成长 万华化学（600309.SH） 2024 年 10 月 30 日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 金益腾（分析师） jinyiteng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020002 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | 龚道琳（分析师） | 李思佳（联系人） | | gongdaolin@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号： S0790522010001 | 证书编号： S0790123070026 | 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 公司信息更新报告 股价走势图 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 万华化学 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《多项目稳步推进，看好公司长期成 长潜力 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.14 《Q1 业绩符合预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 147.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.09 billion yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year [3] - The company has adopted a "three transformations and one reduction" strategy (globalization, differentiation, refinement, and cost reduction) to respond to global economic changes, leading to stable growth in production and sales [3] - The polyurethane segment is expected to see improved profitability due to the release of new capacity and recovery in end-user demand [4] - The petrochemical segment is under pressure, but the company is working on projects that may enhance the value of its ethane resources [4] - The fine chemicals and new materials segment is expanding, with new projects contributing to growth [5] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend policy, distributing no less than 30% of the distributable profits annually over the next three years [5] - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14.92 billion yuan, 19.78 billion yuan, and 22.71 billion yuan, respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 50.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.7% [3] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 2.92 billion yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year and 27.3% quarter-on-quarter [3] Business Segments - Polyurethane: MDI and TDI price spreads showed positive trends, with expectations for improved profitability in Q4 2024 [4] - Petrochemicals: The segment faced low profitability, but ongoing projects are expected to enhance the value of ethane resources [4] - Fine Chemicals and New Materials: The segment is expanding with new projects, contributing to overall growth [5] Dividend Policy - The company will focus on cash dividends, ensuring a stable profit distribution policy [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for Wanhua Chemical [2][5][8] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical's revenue for Q3 2024 was 505.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.48%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.41% year-on-year due to rising raw material costs and declining product prices [3][4] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 143.2 billion, 157.45 billion, and 187.68 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.56, 5.01, and 5.98 yuan [1][5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Wanhua Chemical achieved a revenue of 1,476.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while the net profit was 110.93 billion yuan, down 12.67% [2][3] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 15.38%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company reported a diluted EPS of 3.53 yuan and a return on equity (ROE) of 12.11% as of September 2024 [1][5] Sales and Volume - The sales volume of polyurethane products increased by 14.21% year-on-year, with revenue from this segment reaching 542.45 billion yuan, up 8.32% [3][4] - The petrochemical segment saw a revenue increase of 19.49% year-on-year, although the sales volume decreased by 58.76% [3][4] Cost and Pricing - The average price of pure benzene increased by 13.46% year-on-year, impacting the company's cost structure [3][4] - The report notes that the prices of major products have generally declined, leading to a contraction in industry chain profits [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 50.537 billion yuan for Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.48% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.919 billion yuan, down 29.41% year-on-year and 27.33% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company faced short-term pressure on performance due to maintenance activities in Yantai and BC, which affected production and sales volumes. The prices of TDI and other products have also declined [1] - Future demand for MDI is expected to improve due to the "old-for-new" policy and anticipated interest rate cuts in the US, which may support prices as the downstream demand enters the peak season before the Spring Festival [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 175.361 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 191.805 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.4% [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 16.816 billion yuan in 2023, decreasing to 15.307 billion yuan in 2024, which represents a decline of 9.0% [4][7] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 16.8% in 2023 and slightly decrease to 16.1% in 2024, before recovering to 17.7% in 2025 and 2026 [4][7] Production and Capacity - The production volumes for Q3 2024 were 1.38 million tons for polyurethane, 1.3 million tons for petrochemicals, and 450,000 tons for new materials, with respective quarter-on-quarter changes of -6.1%, -5.8%, and -15.1% [1] - The company is advancing the construction and commissioning of new MDI and TDI facilities in Ningbo and Fujian, with long-term plans to expand MDI capacity to 1.5 million tons per year [1][2] Market Outlook - The export volume of polymer MDI reached 1.0437 million tons in 2023, while pure MDI exports were 121,000 tons, indicating sustained high export levels despite weak overseas demand [1][2] - The overall petrochemical segment is expected to maintain revenue growth, supported by limited impacts from LPG trade and PDH maintenance [1]