江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)现涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.6%，报35.1港元，成交额3.14亿港元。 消息面上，江西铜业再次提高对英国上市公司SolGold的收购报价至每股28便士，总价值约8.42亿英镑 (11.3亿美元)，这是江西铜业三周内第三次出价收购拥有厄瓜多尔顶级铜金矿项目的SolGold。据悉，江 西铜业已获得SolGold其他主要股东的支持，收购后铜产量有望大增。 花旗发布研报称，虽然预期江西铜业股份的铜冶炼业务毛利明年将同比下降，且长期冶炼及精炼业务有 下行压力，但预料铜、金及硫酸价格提高，将推动公司明年的整体毛利上升。该行认为目前估值具吸引 力，A股及H股均维持"买入"评级。 ...

消息面上，江西铜业再次提高对英国上市公司SolGold的收购报价至每股28便士，总价值约8.42亿英镑 (11.3亿美元)，这是江西铜业三周内第三次出价收购拥有厄瓜多尔顶级铜金矿项目的SolGold。据悉，江 西铜业已获得SolGold其他主要股东的支持，收购后铜产量有望大增。 花旗发布研报称，虽然预期江西铜业股份的铜冶炼业务毛利明年将同比下降，且长期冶炼及精炼业务有 下行压力，但预料铜、金及硫酸价格提高，将推动公司明年的整体毛利上升。该行认为目前估值具吸引 力，A股及H股均维持"买入"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)现涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.6%，报35.1港元，成交额3.14亿港 元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper's acquisition of SolGold Plc marks a significant step in the global resource competition, with an increased offer of 28 pence per share, valuing the deal at £842 million (approximately $1.13 billion) [1] Group 1: Acquisition Rationale - The acquisition is driven by Jiangxi Copper's need to address its long-standing business structure contradictions and competitive pressures in the industry [3] - Jiangxi Copper has a copper smelting capacity of 2.3 million tons per year but only produces about 200,000 tons of copper concentrate from its own mines, leading to a low self-sufficiency rate [3] - The company aims to shift its strategy from earning minimal processing fees to sharing resource value through acquisitions, with SolGold's Cascabel project being a key target [5][10] Group 2: Cascabel Project Value - The Cascabel project in Ecuador is considered one of the largest and highest-grade undeveloped copper-gold mines discovered in South America in the past decade, with proven and inferred resources of 12.2 million tons of copper and 30.5 million ounces of gold [5][6] - The project is expected to start early engineering in 2026 and achieve first production by 2028, with an average annual copper output of 123,000 tons, potentially doubling Jiangxi Copper's future copper production [6] Group 3: Acquisition Process - Jiangxi Copper initially faced challenges in its acquisition attempt, with its first offers of 26 pence per share being rejected by SolGold's board [8] - The increase to 28 pence led to a positive response from SolGold's board, indicating a willingness to recommend the offer to shareholders [8] - Jiangxi Copper has garnered support from key shareholders, including BHP and Newcrest, which, combined with its existing stake, gives it over 40% support for the acquisition [8] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The acquisition addresses China's high dependence on foreign copper resources, with an 80% reliance and only 4% of global reserves domestically [10] - By acquiring SolGold, Jiangxi Copper aims to enhance its influence in the global copper resource landscape, breaking the dominance of international mining giants [10] - The acquisition will strengthen Jiangxi Copper's position in the Andean copper belt and create synergies with its other South American projects [11] Group 5: Challenges Ahead - The acquisition requires regulatory approvals in China and the UK, with increasing scrutiny on overseas acquisitions adding uncertainty [13] - The Cascabel project is still in the pre-development phase, requiring significant capital investment and facing various risks related to construction and local conditions [13] - The financial burden of the acquisition may impact Jiangxi Copper's cash flow and debt levels, necessitating effective integration and management of the overseas asset [13]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that while Jiangxi Copper's (00358) copper smelting business gross profit is expected to decline year-on-year next year, the anticipated increase in copper, gold, and sulfuric acid prices will drive the company's overall gross profit up, leading to an upgrade in target prices for both H-shares and A-shares [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The target price for Jiangxi Copper's H-shares has been raised from HKD 27.9 to HKD 39.8 [1] - The target price for Jiangxi Copper's A-shares has been increased from CNY 33.8 to CNY 47.9 [1] - The forecast for copper prices next year is set at USD 12,750 per ton, while gold prices are projected at USD 3,925 per ounce [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Earnings forecasts for the company for the years 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted upwards by 8%, 38%, and 11%, resulting in projected earnings of CNY 8.2 billion, CNY 11.8 billion, and CNY 11.5 billion respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Rating - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares, citing attractive current valuations [1]

该行最新预测明年铜价为每吨12,750美元，金价为每盎司3,925美元，结合公司指引，将2025至27年的公 司盈利预测分别上调8%、38%及11%，至82亿、118亿及115亿元人民币。 花旗发布研报称，虽然预期江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)的铜冶炼业务毛利明年将同比下降，且长 期冶炼及精炼业务有下行压力，但预料铜、金及硫酸价格提高，将推动公司明年的整体毛利上升，并将 江西铜业H股目标价由27.9港元升至39.8港元，江西铜业(600362.SH)A股目标价由33.8元人民币升至47.9 元人民币;该行认为目前估值具吸引力，A股及H股均维持"买入"评级。 ...

该行最新预测明年铜价为每吨12750美元，金价为每盎司3925美元，结合公司指引，将2025至27年的公 司盈利预测分别上调8%、38%及11%，至82亿、118亿及115亿元，并将江西铜业H股目标价由27.9港元 升至39.8港元，A股目标价由33.8元升至47.9元；该行认为目前估值具吸引力，A股及H股均维持"买 入"评级。 花旗发表研究报告指，虽然预期江西铜业股份的铜冶炼业务毛利明年将按年下降，且长期冶炼及精炼业 务有下行压力，但预料铜、金及硫酸价格提高，将推动公司明年的整体毛利上升。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Traditional Materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 - **Preferred Commodities**: Gold, copper, and aluminum are favored due to supportive macro and micro factors [1][8] Core Insights Copper - **Demand Growth**: Strong demand growth expected from Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with suppliers reporting over 50% demand growth for 2026 [2] - **Supply Disruptions**: Anticipated widening of the global copper supply deficit due to three major supply disruptions [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining and CMOC are highlighted for their expected 10-11% copper volume CAGR from 2025 to 2028 [3] Aluminum - **Supply Constraints**: Expected supply tightness due to potential shutdowns and delays in production restarts [4] - **Margin Expansion**: Anticipated sustainable margin expansion for aluminum smelters due to increasing demand and limited supply [4] - **Key Picks**: Chalco, Hongqiao, and China Shenhuo are identified as key investment opportunities in the aluminum sector [4] Gold - **Supportive Macro Environment**: Continued support for gold prices expected from US rate cuts and ongoing purchases by ETFs and central banks [5] - **Volume Growth**: Zijin Gold International is projected to achieve 30% volume growth in 2026, making it a key investment pick [5] Steel - **Production Cuts**: Limited production cuts expected in 2026, with demand anticipated to decline by over 2% [6] - **Export Quota Speculation**: Market expectations are rising regarding potential export quota systems in China [6] Coal - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Sufficient supply amid lukewarm demand is expected to pressure coal prices, with average prices projected at approximately Rmb720/t in 2026 [7] - **Renewable Energy Impact**: Anticipated continued market share gain for renewable power, leading to a slight drop in thermal coal demand [7] Additional Insights - **Market Ratings**: Various companies in the materials sector have been rated with Overweight (OW), Equal-weight (EW), and Underweight (UW) based on their expected performance and market conditions [9][12][13] - **Price Targets**: Adjustments to price targets for several companies have been made based on updated commodity price forecasts and market conditions [19][20] - **EPS Changes**: Significant changes in EPS estimates for various companies, reflecting adjustments in market expectations and commodity price forecasts [18][19] Conclusion - The outlook for traditional materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 is bullish, particularly for gold, copper, and aluminum, driven by strong demand and supply constraints. Investment opportunities are identified in specific companies within these sectors, while challenges remain in steel and coal markets.

Jiangxi Copper Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company Name**: Jiangxi Copper - **Ticker**: 0358.HK / 600362.SS - **Industry**: Copper production, mining, smelting, refining, and processing - **Key Products**: Copper cathode, copper wire, gold, silver, sulfuric acid, pyrite concentrate - **Market Capitalization**: HK$120 billion / Rmb108.78 billion as of 15th Dec 2025 - **Control**: Ultimate controlling shareholder is Jiangxi Provincial SASAC [27][31] Core Insights - **Earnings Forecast Revision**: - 2025E net profit forecast revised to Rmb8.2 billion (+8% YoY) - 2026E net profit forecast revised to Rmb11.8 billion (+38% YoY) - 2027E net profit forecast revised to Rmb11.5 billion (+11% YoY) - These revisions are driven by higher forecasts for copper, gold, and sulfuric acid prices [2][7] - **Target Price Update**: - H-share target price revised to HK$39.8 (previously HK$27.9) - A-share target price revised to Rmb47.9 (previously Rmb33.8) - New target prices imply 2026E P/Es of 10.8x for H-shares and 14.1x for A-shares, compared to historical averages of 13.8x and 23.6x respectively [3][29] - **Sensitivity Analysis**: - A 5% increase in copper price (US$12,750/t) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 4% - A 5% increase in gold price (US$3,925/oz) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 1% - A 5% increase in sulfuric acid price (Rmb700/t) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 2% [1][8] Financial Metrics - **Key Operating Metrics**: - Mined copper volume remains stable at 200kt for 2025-2027 - LME copper price forecast for 2026E increased to US$12,750/t (+28% from previous forecast) - Gross profit for 2026E expected to reach Rmb21.89 billion (+43% YoY) [7][10] - **Profit Margins**: - Net profit margin for 2026E projected at 1.6% - EBITDA margin for 2026E projected at 2.5% [7] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Jiangxi Copper H-shares and A-shares rated as Buy - **Rationale**: Despite lower gross profit from smelting due to lower TC/RC prices, higher gold and sulfuric acid prices are expected to offset this impact. Long-term bullish outlook on copper prices remains intact [28][32] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Potential slowdown in China's grid investment - Weaker-than-expected property demand affecting copper prices - Rising mining or smelting costs [30][35] Upcoming Events - **Conference Call**: Scheduled for 10am on 6th Jan 2026, registration link available (Mandarin only) [1][3]

江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)早盘涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.23%，报35.78港元，成交额8265.48万港 元。 公告称，修改后的潜在要约价格对索尔黄金全部已发行及将要发行的普通股股本估值约为8.42亿英镑， 并代表较11月19日(即江西铜业首次与索尔黄金董事会接洽前的最后营业日)索尔黄金每股收盘价19.6便 士溢价约42.9%；较截至11月27日止(索尔黄金公告江西铜业初步提议前的最后营业日)3个月索尔黄金的 成交量加权平均股价每股约17.6便士溢价约58.5%；较截至11月27日止12个月的成交量加权平均股价每 股约11.8便士溢价约136%；及较11月27日索尔黄金的收盘价每股约26.2便士溢价约7.1%。 消息面上，江西铜业股份发布公告，有关潜在收购海外上市公司SolGoldplc(索尔黄金)的股份，于12月 12日，公司及索尔黄金就江西铜业(香港)投资有限公司向索尔黄金作出修改后的潜在要约。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)早盘涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.23%，报35.78港元，成交额 8265.48万港元。 消息面上，江西铜业股份发布公告，有关潜在收购海外上市公司SolGoldplc(索尔黄金)的股份，于12月 12日，公司及索尔黄金就江西铜业(香港)投资有限公司向索尔黄金作出修改后的潜在要约。 公告称，修改后的潜在要约价格对索尔黄金全部已发行及将要发行的普通股股本估值约为8.42亿英镑， 并代表较11月19日(即江西铜业首次与索尔黄金董事会接洽前的最后营业日)索尔黄金每股收盘价19.6便 士溢价约42.9%；较截至11月27日止(索尔黄金公告江西铜业初步提议前的最后营业日)3个月索尔黄金的 成交量加权平均股价每股约17.6便士溢价约58.5%；较截至11月27日止12个月的成交量加权平均股价每 股约11.8便士溢价约136%；及较11月27日索尔黄金的收盘价每股约26.2便士溢价约7.1%。 ...