该行最新预测明年铜价为每吨12,750美元，金价为每盎司3,925美元，结合公司指引，将2025至27年的公 司盈利预测分别上调8%、38%及11%，至82亿、118亿及115亿元人民币。 花旗发布研报称，虽然预期江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)的铜冶炼业务毛利明年将同比下降，且长 期冶炼及精炼业务有下行压力，但预料铜、金及硫酸价格提高，将推动公司明年的整体毛利上升，并将 江西铜业H股目标价由27.9港元升至39.8港元，江西铜业(600362.SH)A股目标价由33.8元人民币升至47.9 元人民币;该行认为目前估值具吸引力，A股及H股均维持"买入"评级。 ...

该行最新预测明年铜价为每吨12750美元，金价为每盎司3925美元，结合公司指引，将2025至27年的公 司盈利预测分别上调8%、38%及11%，至82亿、118亿及115亿元，并将江西铜业H股目标价由27.9港元 升至39.8港元，A股目标价由33.8元升至47.9元；该行认为目前估值具吸引力，A股及H股均维持"买 入"评级。 花旗发表研究报告指，虽然预期江西铜业股份的铜冶炼业务毛利明年将按年下降，且长期冶炼及精炼业 务有下行压力，但预料铜、金及硫酸价格提高，将推动公司明年的整体毛利上升。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Traditional Materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 - **Preferred Commodities**: Gold, copper, and aluminum are favored due to supportive macro and micro factors [1][8] Core Insights Copper - **Demand Growth**: Strong demand growth expected from Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with suppliers reporting over 50% demand growth for 2026 [2] - **Supply Disruptions**: Anticipated widening of the global copper supply deficit due to three major supply disruptions [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining and CMOC are highlighted for their expected 10-11% copper volume CAGR from 2025 to 2028 [3] Aluminum - **Supply Constraints**: Expected supply tightness due to potential shutdowns and delays in production restarts [4] - **Margin Expansion**: Anticipated sustainable margin expansion for aluminum smelters due to increasing demand and limited supply [4] - **Key Picks**: Chalco, Hongqiao, and China Shenhuo are identified as key investment opportunities in the aluminum sector [4] Gold - **Supportive Macro Environment**: Continued support for gold prices expected from US rate cuts and ongoing purchases by ETFs and central banks [5] - **Volume Growth**: Zijin Gold International is projected to achieve 30% volume growth in 2026, making it a key investment pick [5] Steel - **Production Cuts**: Limited production cuts expected in 2026, with demand anticipated to decline by over 2% [6] - **Export Quota Speculation**: Market expectations are rising regarding potential export quota systems in China [6] Coal - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Sufficient supply amid lukewarm demand is expected to pressure coal prices, with average prices projected at approximately Rmb720/t in 2026 [7] - **Renewable Energy Impact**: Anticipated continued market share gain for renewable power, leading to a slight drop in thermal coal demand [7] Additional Insights - **Market Ratings**: Various companies in the materials sector have been rated with Overweight (OW), Equal-weight (EW), and Underweight (UW) based on their expected performance and market conditions [9][12][13] - **Price Targets**: Adjustments to price targets for several companies have been made based on updated commodity price forecasts and market conditions [19][20] - **EPS Changes**: Significant changes in EPS estimates for various companies, reflecting adjustments in market expectations and commodity price forecasts [18][19] Conclusion - The outlook for traditional materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 is bullish, particularly for gold, copper, and aluminum, driven by strong demand and supply constraints. Investment opportunities are identified in specific companies within these sectors, while challenges remain in steel and coal markets.

Jiangxi Copper Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company Name**: Jiangxi Copper - **Ticker**: 0358.HK / 600362.SS - **Industry**: Copper production, mining, smelting, refining, and processing - **Key Products**: Copper cathode, copper wire, gold, silver, sulfuric acid, pyrite concentrate - **Market Capitalization**: HK$120 billion / Rmb108.78 billion as of 15th Dec 2025 - **Control**: Ultimate controlling shareholder is Jiangxi Provincial SASAC [27][31] Core Insights - **Earnings Forecast Revision**: - 2025E net profit forecast revised to Rmb8.2 billion (+8% YoY) - 2026E net profit forecast revised to Rmb11.8 billion (+38% YoY) - 2027E net profit forecast revised to Rmb11.5 billion (+11% YoY) - These revisions are driven by higher forecasts for copper, gold, and sulfuric acid prices [2][7] - **Target Price Update**: - H-share target price revised to HK$39.8 (previously HK$27.9) - A-share target price revised to Rmb47.9 (previously Rmb33.8) - New target prices imply 2026E P/Es of 10.8x for H-shares and 14.1x for A-shares, compared to historical averages of 13.8x and 23.6x respectively [3][29] - **Sensitivity Analysis**: - A 5% increase in copper price (US$12,750/t) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 4% - A 5% increase in gold price (US$3,925/oz) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 1% - A 5% increase in sulfuric acid price (Rmb700/t) is expected to increase 2026E net profit by 2% [1][8] Financial Metrics - **Key Operating Metrics**: - Mined copper volume remains stable at 200kt for 2025-2027 - LME copper price forecast for 2026E increased to US$12,750/t (+28% from previous forecast) - Gross profit for 2026E expected to reach Rmb21.89 billion (+43% YoY) [7][10] - **Profit Margins**: - Net profit margin for 2026E projected at 1.6% - EBITDA margin for 2026E projected at 2.5% [7] Investment Strategy - **Rating**: Jiangxi Copper H-shares and A-shares rated as Buy - **Rationale**: Despite lower gross profit from smelting due to lower TC/RC prices, higher gold and sulfuric acid prices are expected to offset this impact. Long-term bullish outlook on copper prices remains intact [28][32] Risks - **Downside Risks**: - Potential slowdown in China's grid investment - Weaker-than-expected property demand affecting copper prices - Rising mining or smelting costs [30][35] Upcoming Events - **Conference Call**: Scheduled for 10am on 6th Jan 2026, registration link available (Mandarin only) [1][3]

江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)早盘涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.23%，报35.78港元，成交额8265.48万港 元。 公告称，修改后的潜在要约价格对索尔黄金全部已发行及将要发行的普通股股本估值约为8.42亿英镑， 并代表较11月19日(即江西铜业首次与索尔黄金董事会接洽前的最后营业日)索尔黄金每股收盘价19.6便 士溢价约42.9%；较截至11月27日止(索尔黄金公告江西铜业初步提议前的最后营业日)3个月索尔黄金的 成交量加权平均股价每股约17.6便士溢价约58.5%；较截至11月27日止12个月的成交量加权平均股价每 股约11.8便士溢价约136%；及较11月27日索尔黄金的收盘价每股约26.2便士溢价约7.1%。 消息面上，江西铜业股份发布公告，有关潜在收购海外上市公司SolGoldplc(索尔黄金)的股份，于12月 12日，公司及索尔黄金就江西铜业(香港)投资有限公司向索尔黄金作出修改后的潜在要约。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)早盘涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.23%，报35.78港元，成交额 8265.48万港元。 消息面上，江西铜业股份发布公告，有关潜在收购海外上市公司SolGoldplc(索尔黄金)的股份，于12月 12日，公司及索尔黄金就江西铜业(香港)投资有限公司向索尔黄金作出修改后的潜在要约。 公告称，修改后的潜在要约价格对索尔黄金全部已发行及将要发行的普通股股本估值约为8.42亿英镑， 并代表较11月19日(即江西铜业首次与索尔黄金董事会接洽前的最后营业日)索尔黄金每股收盘价19.6便 士溢价约42.9%；较截至11月27日止(索尔黄金公告江西铜业初步提议前的最后营业日)3个月索尔黄金的 成交量加权平均股价每股约17.6便士溢价约58.5%；较截至11月27日止12个月的成交量加权平均股价每 股约11.8便士溢价约136%；及较11月27日索尔黄金的收盘价每股约26.2便士溢价约7.1%。 ...

Group 1 - Citigroup raised the target price for Jiangxi Copper's A and H shares by approximately 42% [1] - Higher prices for copper, gold, and sulfuric acid are expected to drive the company's total gross profit growth by 2026 [1] - Analysts predict a copper price of $12,750 per ton and a gold price of $3,925 per ounce under baseline forecasts for 2026 [1] Group 2 - A 5% increase in copper and gold prices is projected to lead to a 4% and 1% increase in Jiangxi Copper's net profit for 2026, respectively [1] - The target price for Hong Kong shares was adjusted from HKD 27.9 to HKD 39.8, while the target price for A shares was raised from RMB 33.8 to RMB 47.9 [1]

Group 1: Acquisition Details - Jiangxi Copper has raised its offer for SolGold to 28 pence per share, valuing the bid at approximately £842 million ($1.13 billion) [1] - This marks the third bid from Jiangxi Copper within three weeks, following initial offers of 26 pence and a non-binding proposal that were both rejected [1][8] - Jiangxi Copper must issue a formal offer announcement by December 27 or declare its intention to withdraw from the acquisition [1] Group 2: SolGold and Cascabel Project - SolGold, founded in 2005 and headquartered in London, holds the Cascabel project in Ecuador, which is one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold mines discovered in South America in the past decade [3][10] - The Cascabel project has proven and inferred resources of 12.2 million tons of copper, 30.5 million ounces of gold, and 10,230 million ounces of silver, with an average copper grade of 0.78% [3][10] - The project is expected to have a 28-year operational life, with an average annual copper production of 123,000 tons and a peak capacity of over 216,000 tons [3][10] Group 3: Market Context and Competition - The global competition for copper assets is intensifying, driven by expectations of increased demand from AI and electric vehicle investments [5][12] - Major mining companies like BHP and Newmont hold approximately 10.3% of SolGold each, providing financial support and expertise in mine planning and technology [5][12] - Despite its potential, SolGold has not yet achieved stable revenues, making its value closely tied to the successful development of its projects and commodity price dynamics [5][12] Group 4: Jiangxi Copper's Strategic Position - Jiangxi Copper currently holds a 12.2% stake in SolGold, making it the largest shareholder, and has garnered support from other major shareholders, totaling 40.7% [7][14] - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move for Jiangxi Copper to enhance its copper production capacity, which is currently limited due to reliance on overseas sourcing [7][14] - Jiangxi Copper's profitability has primarily come from smelting fees rather than upstream mining, highlighting the limitations of its current business model [7][14] Group 5: Regulatory Challenges - Latin American countries are increasingly asserting control over their mineral resources, with Ecuador implementing new regulations that require foreign projects to maintain a certain level of local participation [8][15] - Jiangxi Copper faces significant challenges in overseas acquisitions due to these regulatory changes and the evolving landscape of resource nationalism in the region [8][15]

12月12日，江西铜业（600362）（600362.SH）公告将收购索尔黄金100%股份，较上次报价提高2便士/股，修改后的潜在要约价格对索尔黄金已发行及将 发行的全部普通股股本估值约为8.42亿英镑。索尔黄金的核心资产为厄瓜多尔的Cascabel项目，项目主要的Alpala矿床目前拥有探明、控制及推断资源 量：铜1220万吨、金3050万盎司、银1.02亿盎司。 12月15日，矿业巨头洛阳钼业（603993）（603993.SH）开盘后强势拉升翻红，一度涨超4%，随后震荡走低。截至收盘报17.93元/股，涨1.99%，总市值超 3800亿元。或受益于全球贵金属价格飙涨，今年以来，洛阳钼业股价已涨近180%。 值得注意的是，此前受刚果金的钴出口禁令影响，洛阳钼业钴销量大幅下滑。国信证券指出，明年公司钴出口配额为3.2万吨，虽然销量会大幅下滑，但 是钴价上涨弥补了销量下滑的影响。 金价飙升，年内多家矿企掀起并购狂潮 矿企巨头频频"拥"金的背后，是金价的不断攀升。数据显示，截至12月15日，年初至今COMEX黄金累计涨幅超65%，沪金涨幅也达58.14%。 在此背景 下，年内亦有不少矿企选择加码金矿。 金价飙涨 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss the metals industry, particularly focusing on precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, with insights into market trends and forecasts for 2026 [1][2][6][12][26]. Precious Metals - **Silver Price Volatility**: Silver prices have experienced significant fluctuations due to decreasing inventories and demand expectations, with a short-term pullback influenced by AI trends, but long-term trends are expected to follow gold prices [1][3]. - **Federal Reserve's Impact**: The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the initiation of short-term U.S. debt purchases have enhanced liquidity expectations, driving precious metal prices upward, with silver reaching nearly $64 per ounce [2][5]. - **Long-term Support Factors**: Factors such as the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, interest rate cuts, and the U.S. strategic shift away from the dollar are expected to provide long-term support for precious metal prices [1][4][5]. Industrial Metals - **Optimistic Outlook**: The industrial metals market outlook is optimistic, with expectations of demand rebound in traditional manufacturing and real estate due to easing high-interest rates and supportive policies from China's 14th Five-Year Plan [1][6]. - **Copper Price Trends**: Copper prices reached new highs following the Fed's rate cut but faced adjustments due to concerns over AI and U.S. economic data. Future price trends will depend on economic resilience indicators [7][8]. - **Aluminum Market Dynamics**: The aluminum market is expected to remain strong due to fiscal and monetary easing, despite seasonal demand pressures. The overall demand is anticipated to be supported by storage and export activities [10][11]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Demand**: Lithium demand remains robust, driven by the economics of energy storage, with high order expectations for 2026. Supply-side disruptions continue, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance [12][15]. - **Cobalt Market Stability**: Cobalt prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with supply concerns easing due to improved political conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo [12][13]. Steel Industry - **Policy Changes**: The steel industry has reinstated the steel export license system to optimize export structures and limit low-value product exports, which is expected to impact the market significantly [23][24]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Despite short-term market reactions to new policies, there are long-term investment opportunities in high-end manufacturing steel companies, which are less affected by these changes [24][25]. Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: The overall analysis indicates various investment opportunities across precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals, emphasizing the need to monitor policy changes and market dynamics closely to adjust investment strategies accordingly [26].