Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][19]. Core Views - The company experienced an 11% decline in revenue in the third quarter, with increased expense ratios putting pressure on profitability. The overall retail environment for clothing has been challenging since 2024, leading to a significant drop in consumer demand [2][12]. - The company's net profit for the third quarter fell by 64.9% year-on-year to 270 million yuan, with a net profit margin decrease of 9.1 percentage points to 8.4% [2][10]. - Inventory levels increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 53.5% to 12.33 billion yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of the subsidiary and increased procurement [2][10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Third-quarter revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year to 3.89 billion yuan, with a gross margin decline of 1.1 percentage points to 42.8% [2][10]. - The sales expense ratio increased by 5.8 percentage points to 24.8%, with sales expenses rising by 16% to 960 million yuan [2][10]. - The company expects a weak recovery in consumer demand for the fourth quarter and has adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 2.4 billion, 2.76 billion, and 3 billion yuan respectively [12][10]. Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand's offline sales were under pressure, with a 27% decline in revenue, while e-commerce sales grew by 40% [3][12]. - The subsidiary, Sporz, contributed significantly to revenue growth, with a 110% increase in revenue from other brands due to its consolidation [3][12]. Financial Forecasts - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 21.02 billion, 22.78 billion, and 24.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -2.4%, +8.3%, and +8.0% respectively [10][12]. - The gross margin is expected to be 44.4%, 44.6%, and 44.6% for the same period, with an increase in sales expense ratios anticipated [10][12]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to 6.5-7.0 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 13-14x for 2024 [12][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance has been under pressure, with a significant decline in offline operations, while the integration of the brand "Sboz" has led to substantial revenue growth from other brands [3][5]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 15.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.908 billion yuan, down 22.19% [3]. - The online sales channel has shown strong growth, with a revenue increase of 44.67%, while offline sales decreased by 11.82% [3][5]. - The company is expected to face short-term operational challenges due to the overall consumption environment, but long-term prospects remain positive as it continues to strengthen its core competitiveness and improve profit margins [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.889 billion yuan, down 11.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 271 million yuan, down 64.88% [3]. - The revenue breakdown by brand for the first three quarters shows: Haian Home 11.3 billion yuan (-4.95%), Haian Group Purchase Custom 1.462 billion yuan (-13.55%), and other brands (including Sboz) 1.759 billion yuan (+19.59%) [3]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 44.59%, a slight decrease of 0.18 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 27 million yuan, a significant decline of 98.9% year-on-year [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 21.39 billion yuan, 23.36 billion yuan, and 25.37 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1%, +9%, and +9% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.34 billion yuan, 2.77 billion yuan, and 3.09 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21% in 2024, followed by growth of 18% and 12% in the subsequent years [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.24 CNY, based on a 13x PE valuation for 2024 [3][4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.26 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.99%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.91 billion CNY, down 22.2%. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit decreased by 11.01% and 64.9% year-on-year, respectively, falling short of market expectations [1]. - By brand, Q3 2024 saw a significant decline in revenue for the main brand and group purchases, down 26.6% and 37.1% year-on-year, attributed mainly to reduced foot traffic in physical stores and adjustments in the franchise channel. Conversely, other brands experienced a substantial revenue increase of 109.7%, primarily due to the consolidation of the Sporz brand management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. into the company's financial statements [1]. - In terms of sales channels, online revenue grew by 39.7% year-on-year, while offline revenue fell by 25.9%. Revenue from direct stores, franchise stores, and others decreased by 2.4% and 14.2% respectively [1]. - The company's inventory turnover days increased to 346 days in Q3 2024, up 71 days year-on-year, likely due to pre-stocking, the consolidation of Sporz's business, and poor sales of the main brand [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%. The selling, administrative, and R&D expense ratios increased by 5.8 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points, and 1 percentage point year-on-year, respectively. Financial expenses were -0.47 million CNY, down from 0.19 million CNY in the same period last year, mainly due to reduced interest expenses after the conversion of convertible bonds [2]. - The company faces short-term performance pressure due to the consumption environment but anticipates a recovery in mass consumption driven by subsequent policy support. The e-commerce business, Sporz brand management (FCC sports business + JD Outlet), and overseas operations are showing promising growth, particularly the JD Outlet business, which is expanding both online and offline [2]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Based on the Q3 report, the earnings forecast has been adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 0.48 CNY, 0.56 CNY, and 0.65 CNY, respectively. The previous estimates were 0.59 CNY, 0.67 CNY, and 0.74 CNY. The target price of 6.24 CNY corresponds to a 13x PE valuation for 2024, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3][9].

公司报告 | 季报点评 风险提示：国内需求疲软；行业竞争加剧；库存积压。 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected 15%+ outperformance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under pressure, with revenue and net profit declining significantly year-over-year [2] - Main brand sales fell short of expectations due to weak consumer demand, leading to increased sales expenses [2] - Online channels showed strong growth, with a 47% YoY increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Inventory levels rose significantly, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71.4 days to 346.07 days [5] - The company's cash flow position weakened, with operating cash flow down 98.9% YoY for the first three quarters [6] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue was 3.889 billion yuan, down 11.01% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was 271 million yuan, down 64.88% YoY [2] - 2024 full-year revenue forecast is 21.183 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY [7] - 2024 full-year net profit forecast is 2.366 billion yuan, down 19.8% YoY [7] Profitability Ratios - 2024E gross margin is expected to be 45.0%, up from 44.5% in 2023 [7] - 2024E net margin is forecast at 11.0%, down from 13.6% in 2023 [7] - ROE is expected to decline to 12.9% in 2024 from 18.4% in 2023 [7] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E ratio is 12x, up from 9x in 2023 [7] - 2024E P/B ratio is 1x, down from 2x in 2023 [7] - EV/EBITDA is expected to increase to 28x in 2024 from 22x in 2023 [7] Business Segment Performance Main Brand - Revenue declined 4.95% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - Gross margin improved by 0.87 percentage points to 45.33% [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.38 billion yuan, down 26.55% YoY [3] Online Channel - Revenue grew 47% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Gross margin declined 1.9 percentage points to 48.37% [4] - The company is focusing on live streaming and short video platforms to drive online sales [4] Store Network - 104 net store closures in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Direct-operated stores increased by 127, while franchised stores decreased by 231 [4] - Direct-operated channel revenue grew 4.28% YoY, while franchised channel revenue declined 17.9% [4] Future Outlook - The company expects main brand growth to remain stable, with faster growth in e-commerce and overseas business [6] - Traditional Q4 peak season is expected to bring some recovery [6] - The company is working on improving group buying business and reducing losses in sub-brands [6] - Strategic partnerships, including with JD.com's outlet business, are expected to provide new growth momentum [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - Q3 performance was below expectations due to weak terminal sales and rigid costs impacting earnings, but there is potential for marginal improvement as the cold winter sales season approaches [3][4] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.48, 0.56, and 0.62 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [3] - The target price remains at 7.25 CNY, based on a 15x PE ratio for 2024, which aligns with industry averages [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 18,562 million CNY, with a projected increase to 21,528 million CNY in 2023, followed by a decrease to 20,845 million CNY in 2024 [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 2,155 million CNY in 2022, expected to rise to 2,952 million CNY in 2023, then decrease to 2,321 million CNY in 2024 [2] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be 11.1% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 11.2% in 2024 [9] Sales Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 15.26 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, with a significant drop in Q3 revenue by 11.0% year-on-year [3] - Online sales outperformed offline sales, with online revenue increasing by 44.7% while offline sales decreased by 11.8% [3] - The company’s main brand, Hai Lan Zhi Jia, saw a revenue decline of 5.0% year-on-year [3] Inventory and Future Outlook - As of Q3, inventory stood at 12.33 billion CNY, an increase of 4.3 billion CNY year-on-year, partly due to the consolidation of the Sporz business [3] - The company anticipates improved inventory turnover and sales performance as the winter season approaches, with plans to expand its main brand and strengthen online sales channels [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a challenging Q3 performance with revenue of 15.259 billion yuan, down 1.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.908 billion yuan, down 22.19% year-on-year. The decline in revenue and net profit was attributed to weak terminal consumption [1] - The main brand and group purchase business faced pressure, while other brands showed high growth due to the consolidation of Sporz. The main brand's revenue in Q3 decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, and group purchase revenue fell by 37.1% year-on-year. However, there is an expectation for improvement in Q4 [1] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 from 27.2 billion, 30.3 billion, and 33.4 billion yuan to 25.1 billion, 31.3 billion, and 34.6 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 9, and 8 times [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 15.259 billion yuan, with quarterly revenues showing a trend of +8.72% in Q1, -5.88% in Q2, and -11.01% in Q3. Net profit for the same period was 1.908 billion yuan, with quarterly net profits of +10.41% in Q1, -14.42% in Q2, and -64.88% in Q3 [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 was 42.81%, down 1.11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in overall discounts amid weak terminal sales [1] Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand's revenue in Q3 decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, while the group purchase business saw a 37.1% decline. Other brands, particularly Sporz, experienced a 110% increase in revenue due to consolidation [1] - Online revenue grew by 40% year-on-year in Q3, while offline revenue fell by 26%. The increase in online sales was mainly driven by Sporz's contribution [1] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of Q3 2024, inventory reached 12.334 billion yuan, up 53.5% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71 days to 346 days. The increase in inventory was attributed to the consolidation of Sporz [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 was -1.97 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced sales cash receipts and increased cash outflows for Sporz's inventory purchases [1]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating despite weak Q3 performance, with a focus on future retail environment improvement and incremental business growth [2][4] Core Views - Q3 revenue declined by 11% YoY to 3.889 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 64.9% to 271 million yuan, primarily due to weak offline sales and increased negative operating leverage from higher direct-operated store proportion [2] - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 2.24/2.53/3.00 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 2.78/2.94/3.22 billion yuan [2] - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 12.2/10.8/9.1x, reflecting a cautious outlook on the retail environment [2] Main Brand Performance - Online revenue grew by 39% to 986 million yuan, but excluding the impact of Spozz consolidation and reclassification, actual revenue remained flat [2] - Offline revenue under pressure, with 5,872 stores as of Q3, a net decrease of 104 stores YoY and 36 stores QoQ, while direct-operated stores increased by 65 QoQ, raising the proportion of direct-operated stores to 23.5% [2] - Overseas revenue increased by 20% YoY to 230 million yuan, with 78 overseas stores as of Q3, up by 16 stores since the beginning of the year [2] Other Brands Performance - Other brands' revenue surged by 109.7% to 850 million yuan, driven by Spozz consolidation, with Spozz contributing 900-1,000 million yuan in revenue and a net profit margin of 15%-16% [2] - FCC project expanded rapidly, with nearly 400 stores opened by the end of October, and the Jiangyin Feima Water Town JD Outlet opened in September [2] Profitability and Inventory - Gross margin slightly declined by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%, while net margin dropped by 11.0 percentage points to 12.3%, mainly due to increased sales expenses from direct-operated stores and higher online marketing costs [2] - Inventory surged by 53.47% to 12.334 billion yuan, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling, weak Q3 sales, and Spozz consolidation, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71 days to 346 days [2] Financial Summary and Valuation - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 20.668 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.235 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.3% YoY decline [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 44.2%, with a net margin of 10.8% and ROE of 13.2% [3] - Current PE ratio stands at 12.2x for 2024E, with a PB ratio of 1.6x [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges in the retail environment [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit due to a weak external retail environment, with Q1-3 2024 revenue at 15.26 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.91 billion yuan, down 22.2% year-on-year [4][7]. - The company is positioned as a high-quality national apparel brand, with expectations for recovery in consumer spending, supported by a strong dividend policy [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 44.6%, with an increase in expense ratios leading to a decline in net profit margin [4][6]. - The main brand, Hai Lan, generated revenue of 11.3 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, while online sales increased by 44.7% to 3.2 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 2.35 billion, 2.70 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 11, and 10 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an adjusted profit forecast for 2024-2026 [6][4]. Core Views - The main brand is experiencing a recovery phase in offline sales, while the Sboz business is growing rapidly. The overall revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is projected to remain stable year-on-year, with short-term profit pressures but long-term growth potential [4][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue is 15.26 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, and net profit is 1.91 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year. The gross margin is 44.6%, with a net margin of 12.9% [1][4]. - In Q3 2024, revenue is 3.89 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, and net profit is 270 million yuan, down 65% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42.8% [1][4]. Brand Performance Summary - The main brand's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is 11.3 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.3%. The group purchase and customization series saw a revenue decline of 14% to 1.46 billion yuan [2][4]. - Other brands, including Sboz, reported a revenue increase of 20% to 1.76 billion yuan, significantly boosted by the consolidation of Sboz's financials [2][4]. Channel Performance Summary - Offline sales decreased by 12% to 11.32 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, while online sales increased by 45% to 3.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - Direct sales outperformed franchise sales, with direct sales revenue up 4% to 3.33 billion yuan, while franchise sales fell 4% to 9.73 billion yuan [3][4]. Inventory and Cash Flow Management - Inventory turnover days increased by 71.4 days to 346.1 days, with ending inventory up 53.5% to 12.33 billion yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of Sboz [4][4]. - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 is reported at 30 million yuan, indicating potential for improvement in cash flow management [4][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in offline sales for the main brand, with contributions from e-commerce growth, overseas business, and the rapid expansion of Sboz. Overall, revenue for 2024 is expected to be flat year-on-year, with profits under short-term pressure but potential for steady growth in the medium to long term [4][4].