截至7月23日收盘，特高压概念下跌2.38%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，安靠智电、通达股 份、电科院等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有9只，涨幅居前的有C山大、中国电建、斯瑞新材等，分别上涨 356.00%、10.08%、4.10%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 600361 | 创新新材 | -0.72 | 3.43 | -1610.69 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603333 | 尚纬股份 | -1.69 | 4.06 | -1525.84 | | 300712 | 永福股份 | -6.24 | 4.76 | -1525.34 | | 603861 | 白云电器 | -2.92 | 3.01 | -1512.64 | | 002350 | 北京科锐 | -2.74 | 2.42 | -1488.14 | | 300831 | 派瑞股份 | -1.85 | 12.16 | -1390.09 | | 601096 | 宏盛华源 | -1.96 | 2.40 | -1346.94 | | 002358 | 森源电气 | -2.51 | 6.28 | -1249.59 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese smart switch equipment industry is experiencing unprecedented growth opportunities as a core component of the new power system, driven by the integration of modern sensing, digital processing, communication, and intelligent control technologies [1][11] - The market size is projected to reach 132 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20%, and is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan by 2025 [1][11] - The industry is evolving towards the third generation of intelligent systems with the deepening application of 5G-A and edge intelligence technologies [1][11] Industry Overview - Smart switch equipment integrates modern sensing, digital processing, communication technologies, and intelligent control algorithms, enhancing the reliability and efficiency of power systems [2][11] - The equipment is categorized by voltage levels (low, medium, high), functionality (protection, monitoring, communication), and application scenarios (distribution automation, renewable energy integration, industrial applications) [3][2] Industry Policies - The smart switch equipment sector is pivotal for the intelligent upgrade of power systems and has been elevated to a key focus in national energy transition strategies under the "dual carbon" initiative [4][5] - Multiple policies have been introduced to accelerate the development of clean, low-carbon, and efficient power systems, providing strategic guidance for the deep application of smart switch equipment [4][5] Industry Value Chain - The industry value chain consists of upstream raw materials and core components, midstream manufacturing focusing on equipment integration and intelligent upgrades, and downstream applications across diverse scenarios [6][11] Market Applications - The smart switch equipment market is diversified, with the power sector holding a 40% share, followed by industrial automation (25%-30%) and smart home applications (20%-25%) [13][11] - The penetration rate of smart technology in the power sector is expected to reach 30% by 2024, corresponding to a market size of approximately 41.7 billion yuan [13][11] Competitive Landscape - The industry features a three-tier competitive structure with foreign companies dominating the high-end market, domestic firms gaining ground in the mid-tier, and emerging players penetrating various application scenarios [15][17] - Domestic companies like Guodian NARI and Pinggao Electric have increased their market share significantly, with Guodian NARI achieving a 28% market share in 2024 [15][17] Development Trends - The industry is moving towards deep technological integration, diversified application scenarios, and global supply chain integration [19][22] - Key trends include the transition from passive control to proactive decision-making, expansion into new application areas, and the establishment of collaborative ecosystems among industry players [19][22]

据经济日报消息，国家发展改革委和国家能源局近日发布方案，宣布今年将实现跨电网经营区交易常态 化开市，推动建设全国统一电力市场体系。新机制在国家电网和南方电网之间建立"网上电力商城"，促 进电力资源在全国范围内自由流动。通过电力交易中心的精准供需匹配，绿色电力消纳将更加便捷，东 部企业可市场化购买西部风电和光伏电。首次跨区绿电交易已完成，实现新疆与广东间的电力供需互 济，提高电力保供能力。 ...

Group 1 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that foreign capital's investment in RMB assets remains stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion [2] - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [2] - The Central Huijin Investment Company significantly increased its holdings in ETFs by over $200 billion in Q2 2025, aligning with policy directions to stabilize market expectations [6] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 7.1% in the total balance of RMB loans, reaching 268.56 trillion yuan by the end of Q2 2025 [3] - The balance of loans to enterprises and institutions in both RMB and foreign currencies reached 182.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [3] - Fixed asset loans increased by 7.8% year-on-year, totaling 76.82 trillion yuan, indicating a positive trend in investment [3] Group 3 - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Company aims to advance the commercialization of fusion energy, with significant capital involvement from various state-owned enterprises [7] - The recent surge in industrial commodity futures, including coal and silicon, reflects a strong market response to government policies aimed at reducing overproduction [8] Group 4 - The 2025 Fortune China 500 list revealed that the total revenue of the listed companies was $14.2 trillion, a decrease of approximately 2.7% from the previous year, while net profits increased by about 7% [13] - State Grid Corporation topped the list with a revenue of $548.4 billion, followed by China Petroleum and Sinopec [13]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a nationwide unified electricity market system is a crucial task for deepening electricity system reform and building a unified national market, with the recent implementation of a normalized electricity trading mechanism across grid operation areas accelerating this process [1][2]. Group 1: Market Structure and Development - The electricity industry in China has transitioned from a planned electricity system to a market-oriented one, with market transactions expected to exceed 6 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, accounting for 63% of total electricity transactions [1]. - The separation of the State Grid and Southern Grid since the 2002 reform has led to a lack of interconnection and a normalized trading mechanism, hindering the optimal allocation of electricity resources nationwide [1][2]. Group 2: Cross-Grid Trading Mechanism - The newly established cross-grid trading mechanism allows for a unified online electricity marketplace, enabling electricity resources to flow freely across the country based on a standardized set of rules [2][3]. - The mechanism facilitates the collection of cross-grid trading demands and ensures precise matching of supply and demand through information exchange between trading centers in Beijing and Guangzhou [3]. Group 3: Green Energy Consumption - The new trading mechanism enhances the convenience of green energy consumption, allowing renewable energy projects to participate as basic trading units, thus promoting the free flow of green electricity between regions [3][4]. - The first cross-regional green electricity transaction was successfully completed in March, demonstrating the practical application of the new trading mechanism [3]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Management - The cross-grid trading mechanism has already shown initial effectiveness, with significant volumes of green electricity traded between regions, particularly during peak demand periods [6]. - The mechanism is expected to improve the utilization of transmission channels and enhance the capacity for renewable energy consumption, thereby providing more flexible supply guarantees [6]. Group 5: Future Development Directions - In 2023, the country plans to implement normalized trading across various timeframes, supporting electricity supply during peak demand periods and exploring long-term green electricity trading agreements [7]. - The ongoing physical interconnection between the State Grid and Southern Grid will further enhance resource optimization capabilities, leading to more frequent and shorter trading cycles [7].

Economic Overview - Dalian's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 464.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, surpassing national and provincial averages by 0.7 and 1.3 percentage points respectively [1][4] - The city's GDP target for 2024 is set at 951.69 billion yuan, aiming for a growth of 5.2%, indicating a strong push towards joining the "trillion-yuan club" [4][6] Sector Performance - The primary industry added value was 21.69 billion yuan, growing by 4.5%; the secondary industry saw an increase of 164.13 billion yuan, up by 9.4%; while the tertiary industry contributed 278.88 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.0% [2] - Dalian's industrial sector showed significant growth, with industrial output increasing by 12.5% year-on-year, driven by traditional industries like equipment manufacturing (up 16.9%) and emerging sectors such as new energy and high-tech manufacturing (up 20.1%) [5] Consumer Trends - Dalian's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 112.57 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, the highest growth rate among 15 sub-provincial cities [5] Future Projections - To achieve a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan by 2025, Dalian needs to maintain a growth rate of at least 5.1%, which is considered feasible [6] - The Dalian government is committed to maintaining a stable economic growth trajectory and aims for high-quality development towards the trillion-yuan GDP goal [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the smart grid sector, with a comprehensive layout across the entire new power system, including source, network, load, storage, and data [1][11]. - The domestic grid investment is on an upward trend, with significant R&D investments supporting growth. In the first five months of 2025, grid project investments reached 204 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [2][24]. - The global grid investment is also rising, with the company's overseas business revenue growing from 920 million to 3.28 billion from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 29% [3][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Smart Grid Leadership and Comprehensive Layout - The company is recognized as a pioneer in the domestic power automation sector, covering all aspects of the new power system [11]. - The smart grid business is the main contributor to revenue, with projected revenue of 28.47 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [13]. 2. Domestic Grid Investment and R&D Support - The report highlights the increasing investment in the domestic grid, with expectations for 2025 to exceed 650 billion [2][24]. - The company maintains high R&D spending, which reached 4.032 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.94% [40]. 3. Global Investment and Rapid Overseas Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, with significant projects in Saudi Arabia, South America, and Mexico [44]. - The overseas revenue is expected to continue growing, contributing positively to overall performance [3][44]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 645.03 billion, 719.67 billion, and 799.99 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 11.6%, and 11.2% respectively [4][47]. - The expected net profit for the same period is 84.01 billion, 94.56 billion, and 106.14 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 10.4%, 12.6%, and 11.3% [4][47].

Market Overview - On July 22, A-shares saw collective gains across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.61%, all reaching new highs for the year [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1.9286 trillion yuan, an increase of 201.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Over 2,500 stocks rose, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit for the second consecutive day [1] Sector Performance Hydropower Sector - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower concept stocks experienced a surge, with multiple brokerages publishing reports on investment opportunities related to the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project [4] - The project is expected to become the world's largest hydropower station, generating approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, which will significantly boost demand for engineering machinery [4] - Key suppliers in China's hydropower equipment market include Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, with Dongfang Electric achieving a 100% localization rate for 1 million kilowatt generator sets [4] Cement Sector - The cement sector is gaining momentum due to the "anti-involution" news, with the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower project expected to provide a new boost [5] - Major players in the Tibet cement market include Tibet Tianlu, Huaxin Cement, and Conch Cement, with Tibet Tianlu accounting for about 30% of the region's total cement production [5] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector showed active performance, despite a decline of over 10% year-to-date as of July 21 [6][7] - Fund managers have mixed strategies regarding liquor stocks, with some reducing positions while others increase their allocations [8] - Many institutions believe that the current valuation of liquor stocks presents investment opportunities, especially for leading companies with strong management and risk resilience [9] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw gains amid fluctuating market conditions influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve speculation [10] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to ongoing global uncertainties and central bank purchasing [10]

Summary of NARI Technology (600406.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NARI Technology - **Industry**: Hydropower and Electrical Equipment Key Points Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project - The Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Project officially commenced on July 19, 2025, with an expected capacity of over 60GW and an investment of approximately Rmb1.2 trillion over 15 years, significantly surpassing the Three Gorges Dam project [1][6] - The annual investment for the Yarlung Zangbo project is estimated at Rmb80 billion, representing 7% of China's power generation investment and 13% of power grid investment in 2024 [1][6] NARI Technology's Position - NARI Technology is positioned as a key beneficiary of the Yarlung Zangbo project due to its leading market share in hydropower generation control technology (70%) and UHV converter valves (37%) [1][15] - If selected as a supplier, NARI's long-term EPS could increase by approximately 4% beyond 2030, driven by opportunities in hydropower generation control, UHV converter valves, and secondary equipment for transformation stations [1][8] Revenue Opportunities - NARI is projected to generate around Rmb7.7 billion in revenue from the hydropower control system, compared to Rmb1.8 billion in segment revenue in 2024, based on an average selling price (ASP) of Rmb184 million per GW [2][8] - The expected revenue from UHV converter valves is estimated at Rmb7.9 billion, with a timeline of 6+ years for realization [9][8] Investment and Market Analysis - The total investment for UHV transmission lines for the Yarlung Zangbo project is estimated at Rmb216 billion, with NARI expected to capture a significant portion of this market [9][11] - The project is anticipated to have a substantial impact on domestic power generation and grid investment, with NARI's revenue from the project expected to contribute to a 4% boost in EPS beyond 2030 [1][8] Timeline and Comparisons - The timeline for the Yarlung Zangbo project includes key milestones such as the start of turbine generator bidding in 2028 and UHV construction/tendering in 2030, with project completion expected by 2040 [11][12] - The Yarlung Zangbo project is projected to have three to four times the power generation capacity of the Three Gorges and Baihetan projects [11][12] Risks and Price Target - The 12-month price target for NARI Technology is set at Rmb31.80, indicating a potential upside of 38.7% from the current price of Rmb22.93 [18][16] - Key risks include lower-than-expected fiscal support and delays in UHV project approvals [16] Additional Insights - NARI's dominant market position and the scale of the Yarlung Zangbo project present significant growth opportunities, making it a compelling investment in the hydropower sector [1][15] - The expected increase in demand for secondary equipment related to transformation stations could further enhance NARI's revenue potential [1][15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Clean Energy** sector in **China**, specifically highlighting the **Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project** which commenced construction on July 19, 2025, in Nyingchi, Tibet [1] Company and Project Details - The **Yarlung Zangbo River Lower Reaches Hydropower project** is operated by the newly-established **China Yajiang Group Corporation** and consists of five cascade power stations with a planned investment of approximately **Rmb1.2 trillion** [1] - For comparison, the **Three Gorges** and **Baihetan projects** had investments of **Rmb250 billion** and **Rmb220 billion**, respectively [1] Investment Implications - Key beneficiaries identified within the coverage include **UHV transmission equipment players** such as: - **Pinggao (600312.SS)** - **XJ Electric (000400.SZ)** - **NARI Tech (600406.SS)** - **Sieyuan (002028.SZ)** [2] - Opportunities are also seen for: - **Hydropower plant engineering companies** - Key hydropower equipment manufacturers like **Dongfang Electric (600875.CH/1072.HK)** and **Harbin Electric (1133.HK)** [2] - Potential for the development of **"hydro-solar-wind bases"** to leverage solar and wind power during the dry season for stable renewable energy output [2] Capacity and Output Estimates - The **Medog hydropower station** is designed with an installed capacity of approximately **60 GW**, significantly higher than the **Three Gorges' 22.5 GW** and **Baihetan's 16 GW** [5] - Estimated annual electricity output for the Medog station is around **300 billion kWh**, compared to **80-90 billion kWh** for the Three Gorges and **~60 billion kWh** for Baihetan [5] - The electricity generated will be transmitted to other regions in China via **UHV lines**, while also catering to local demand in Tibet [5] Valuation Methodology - **XJ Electric (000400.SZ)** uses a discounted cash flow model with a WACC of **8.0%**, reflecting a cost of equity of **9.5%** and an after-tax cost of debt of **4.5%** [8] - **Sieyuan Electric Co. Ltd. (002028.SZ)** employs a similar discounted cash flow analysis with a WACC of **7.5%** [9] - **Henan Pinggao Electric (600312.SS)** also uses discounted cash flow methodology with a WACC of **8.2%** [10] - **NARI Technology (600406.SS)** follows a discounted cash flow approach with a WACC of **8.0%** [16] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks** include: - Better-than-expected progress in orders - Market share gains - Higher-than-expected investment in the grid distribution network [12][13][14] - **Downside Risks** include: - Delays in the working progress of orders - Lower-than-expected investment in the grid distribution network - Increased competition affecting margins [12][18][19] Analyst Ratings - The report includes various companies in the **China Utilities** sector with ratings such as **Overweight** and **Equal-weight** for companies like **CGN Power Co., Ltd.** and **China Gas Holdings** [78][80] Conclusion - The Clean Energy sector in China, particularly hydropower, presents significant investment opportunities driven by large-scale projects like the Yarlung Zangbo and Medog stations, with various companies positioned to benefit from this growth.