募资投资高端智能电动平台开发项目 江淮汽车(600418) 证券研究报告 商用车 / 公司点评 / 2026.01.28 | 投资评级:增持(维持) | | | --- | --- | | 基本数据 | 2026-01-28 | | 收盘价(元) | 53.30 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 21.84 | | 每股净资产(元) | 4.55 | | 总股本(亿股) | 21.84 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -23% -10% 4% 18% 31% 45% 江淮汽车 沪深300 上证指数 分析师 吴晓飞 SAC 证书编号：S0160525090003 wuxf01@ctsec.com 分析师 李渤 SAC 证书编号：S0160521050001 libo@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《与华为合作打造高端品牌，积极开拓海 外市场》 2025-08-26 2. 《尊界 S800 批量投产，大定突破 5000 台》 2025-06-19 3. 《营业收入有所下滑，持续深化外部合 作》 2025-04-08 核心观点 | 盈利预测 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant decline in profitability, with upstream components showing steady growth, while vehicle manufacturing and downstream dealerships face considerable pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Profitability Trends - In 2025, the automotive industry achieved a profit of 461 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, but the sales profit margin dropped to 4.1%, lower than the average of 5.9% for downstream industrial enterprises [2]. - The profit margin for the automotive industry fell to 4.1% in 2025, marking a five-year low, with December profits plummeting to 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.4% [2][3]. - The overall profit margin for the automotive industry in December 2025 was the lowest in five years, with a significant decline from 4.1% in December 2024 to 1.8% [2]. Group 2: Performance of Different Segments - Among 129 A-share automotive parts companies, 80 reported a year-on-year profit increase, indicating over 60% had both revenue and profit growth [3]. - In the vehicle manufacturing segment, 16 out of 22 A-share car manufacturers were profitable, but major players like BYD and GAC Group saw significant profit declines, with GAC Group's profit dropping by 3691.33% [3]. - The downstream dealership segment is under severe pressure, with only 28% meeting sales targets and a loss rate climbing to 55% [3]. Group 3: Cost Pressures - The overall unit cost for industrial enterprises has increased significantly, with lithium carbonate prices doubling and raw material costs rising for midstream and downstream sectors [3][4]. - The cost of a typical mid-sized smart electric vehicle has increased by 4,000 to 7,000 yuan due to rising prices of lithium, aluminum, and copper, which are difficult for manufacturers to pass on to consumers [4]. - Starting in 2026, a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles and changes to subsidy policies will further increase consumer costs, complicating demand and supply dynamics in the automotive market [4]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - Some automotive companies are accelerating collaboration with upstream suppliers to address challenges, as seen in the strategic discussions between China Aluminum Group and China FAW Group [5].

Group 1 - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a decline of 0.27% on January 28, with Jinlong Automobile leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the commercial vehicle sector showed varied performance, with China National Heavy Duty Truck rising by 3.71% and Jinlong Automobile falling by 5.29% [2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the commercial vehicle sector was 73.19 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 230 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for major stocks in the sector varied, with Jianghuai Automobile achieving a turnover of 2.859 billion yuan [1][2] - Detailed fund flow analysis indicated that several companies, including Dongfeng Motor and Ankai Bus, experienced significant net outflows from main funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is facing significant profit declines, with 2025 projected profits at 461 billion yuan, a mere 0.6% increase year-on-year, and a sales profit margin of 4.1%, which is below the average of 5.9% for downstream industrial enterprises [2] Group 1: Profit Trends - The automotive industry's profit margin is expected to drop to 4.1% in 2025, marking a five-year low, following a decline to 4.3% in 2024 [2] - In December 2025, the automotive industry reported profits of 20.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.4%, with a profit margin of 1.8%, significantly lower than the 4.1% in December 2024 [2] - Excluding the pandemic-affected April 2022, December 2025's profit margin is the lowest in five years [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The automotive supply chain shows a mixed performance, with upstream parts manufacturers experiencing stable growth, while vehicle manufacturing and downstream dealerships face significant challenges [3] - Among 22 A-share automotive companies, 16 reported profits, but major players like BYD and GAC Group saw substantial profit declines, with GAC Group's profit dropping by 3691.33% [3] - The dealership segment is under severe pressure, with only 28% meeting sales targets and a loss rate climbing to 55% [3] Group 3: Cost Pressures - The automotive industry is experiencing increased cost pressures, with lithium carbonate prices doubling and overall raw material costs rising, impacting profit margins [3][4] - The cost of a typical electric vehicle has increased by 4,000 to 7,000 yuan due to rising prices of lithium, aluminum, and copper, which manufacturers struggle to pass on to consumers [4] - Starting in 2026, a 5% tax on new energy vehicle purchases and changes to subsidy policies will further increase consumer costs, complicating demand and supply dynamics [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The China Automotive Industry Association forecasts total vehicle sales to reach 34.75 million units in 2026, a 1% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles projected to grow by 15.2% to 19 million units [5] - Some automotive companies are accelerating collaborations with upstream suppliers to address these challenges, focusing on strategic partnerships and new material development [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 | 计算机 国产豪华智能车崛起 ——智能电动汽车行业点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 打造尊界战略转型成效初现 江淮汽车 2025 年全力投入尊界品牌打造，在研发、生产、营销端与华为全力配合， 自 2025Q3 开始实现批量交付，Q4 时押注尊界带来的战略转型财务成效已初步体 现。根据公司业绩公告，2025 全年归母净利润-16.8 亿元，较去年同期减亏 10.4 亿 元。单 Q4 扣非后归母净利润剔除大众安徽 10.8 亿投资亏损后，已达 3.7 亿元。 ❑ 尊界交付表现亮眼，超豪华市场一骑绝尘 尊界 S800 2025 年累计交付达到 11,930 辆。自 2025 Q3 批量交付以来，迅速跃 居 70 万元以上超豪华轿车交付量榜首。12 月尊界 S800 轿车交付 4,376 辆，月 度环比增加 104%，超过帕拉梅拉（1593 辆）+宝马 7 系（1429 辆）+迈巴赫 S 级 （1118 辆）总和。截至 2025 年末，尊界 S800 累计大定订单已突破 1.8 万辆， 深厚的订单池为后续持续放量提供了坚实保障。细分市场登顶的"尊界速度"，验 证了尊界在超豪华市场品牌的成功。 ❑ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the fund holding ratio in the automotive industry slightly increased to 4.35%, up by 0.02 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating an overall overweight of 0.14% compared to the market capitalization of automotive stocks in A-shares [2][5] - The configuration ratio for automotive manufacturing decreased to 1.04%, down by 0.12 percentage points, while the configuration ratio for automotive parts increased to 3.31%, up by 0.14 percentage points [5] - The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in Q4 2025 reached 8.846 million units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.1% [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector increased by 2.15%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which decreased by 0.62% [28] - Among sub-sectors, commercial vehicle parts rose by 7.36%, while automotive sales and services fell by 5.74% [28] Fund Holdings - The top fifteen fund holdings in the automotive sector for Q4 2025 include Fuyao Glass, Slin Intelligent Drive, and Sailun Tire, with significant inflows into Slin Intelligent Drive and outflows from Jianghuai Automobile [6][17] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: 1. Overseas expansion with recommendations for companies like Minth Group and BYD 2. High-end passenger vehicles and parts with a focus on companies like Geely and Ideal Automotive 3. Embracing AI technology with recommendations for companies like Top Group and Xpeng Motors [7][22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle sector experienced a rise of 2.28% on January 27, with China National Heavy Duty Truck leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.09% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The commercial vehicle sector's stocks showed varied performance, with China National Heavy Duty Truck closing at 18.60, up by 5.50%, and Jianghuai Automobile at 52.90, up by 4.55% [1]. - The trading volume for Jianghuai Automobile was 703,300 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 3.682 billion yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included Yutong Bus, which rose by 3.65% to close at 32.40, and Zhongtong Bus, which increased by 1.29% to 11.79 [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The commercial vehicle sector saw a net inflow of 53.1984 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 78.1087 million yuan [2]. - Conversely, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 131 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow data indicates that Jianghuai Automobile had a significant net inflow of 91.0266 million yuan from institutional investors, while Foton Motor faced a net outflow of 155.29 million yuan from speculative funds [3].

国家知识产权局信息显示，安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司申请一项名为"一种基于哈希树的流式OTA 下载验签安装方法"的专利，公开号CN121396968A，申请日期为2025年10月。 专利摘要显示，本发明属于电子控制技术领域，具体涉及一种基于哈希树的流式OTA下载验签安装方 法，云端对软件包处理流程包括零部件软件包上传，服务器分块处理，计算叶子节点哈希，构建中间节 点，递归向上生成根节点，生成哈希树结构，流式压缩及生成URL；车端对软件包处理部分包括URL获 取及list.json解析，下载和解压，完整性校验，刷写及验证。本技术方案使用哈希树进行校验，安全系 数较高。用户在进入到安装过程中时，可用车，仅最后进行安装重启，无需长时间安装等待。终端无需 下载完整升级包后验签，可实现边下边安，且当校验某一单元错误时仅需重新下载错误部分，节省流 量，且由于边下边安，无需占用文件系统整包的存储空间资源。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：栎树 天眼查资料显示，安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于 ...

继续推荐江淮汽车：定增注册稿已于今日公告，定增发行在即 定增发行在即，本次定增计划募集不超过35亿元，扣除发行费用后，用于高端智能电动平台开发项目。 走量车型MPV进入预热期。 MPV车型及S800高定版车型有望在4月份北京车展发布，车展日期逐渐临近，新车型宣发力度有望持续增强。 继续推荐江淮汽车：定增注册稿已于今日公告，定增发行在即 定增发行在即，本次定增计划募集不超过35亿元，扣除发行费用后，用于高端智能电动平台开发项目。 走量车型MPV进入预热期。 MPV车型及S800高定版车型有望在4月份北京车展发布，车展日期逐渐临近，新车型宣发力度有望持续增强。 竞争优势突出，盈利能力强，不受行业波动影响。 高端品牌的打造需要时间积淀，江淮尊界凭借跟华为的合作站稳高端市场，2026-2027年是公司车型大年，销量有 望加速增长；高端车市场盈利能力强。 竞争优势突出，盈利能力强，不受行业波动影响。 ...

财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 国家知识产权局信息显示，安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司取得一项名为"基于车辆座舱控制的风险区 域主动防御控制方法"的专利，授权公告号CN115091921B，申请日期为2022年7月。 天眼查资料显示，安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于合肥市，是一家以从事汽车制 造业为主的企业。企业注册资本218400.9791万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，安徽江淮汽车集团股 份有限公司共对外投资了48家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息943条，专利信 息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可672个。 ...