[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 03 月 12 日 证券研究报告•2024 年年报点评 当前价：17.77 元 昆药集团（600422）医药生物 目标价：——元（6 个月） 并表圣火开启协同，昆中药提质增效显著 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 8401.45 | 8726.76 | 9472.63 | 10356.33 | | 增长率 | 9.07% | 3.87% | 8.55% | 9.33% | | 归属母公司净利润（百万元） | 648.08 | 731.76 | 884.02 | 1055.24 | | 增长率 | 45.74% | 12.91% | 20.81% | 19.37% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.86 | 0.97 | 1.17 | 1.39 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 11.14% | 10.60% | 11.77% | 12.79% | | PE | 21 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.401 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.86% to 648 million yuan [6] - The acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to enhance profitability and support the strategic integration of the company's Sanqi business [6] - The stable landing of centralized procurement is anticipated to lead to a recovery in product prices, providing a favorable outlook for future earnings [6] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.601 billion yuan and a net profit of 203 million yuan [6] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3 yuan per ten shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 35.04% [6] - The company’s core products, including "Kun Traditional Chinese Medicine 1381," have shown significant growth, with combined revenue from key products increasing by 20% [6] Strategic Developments - The integration of Huaren Shenghuo into the company’s financials is expected to bolster profits and establish a benchmark in the Sanqi industry chain [6] - The company is focusing on brand building and channel development, which are progressing steadily [6] - The centralized procurement renewal in December 2024 has stabilized prices for key products, ensuring a stable revenue stream until December 31, 2027 [6] Earnings Forecast - The projected profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 750 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.135 billion yuan respectively [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 18, 15, and 12 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]

医药生物/中药Ⅱ 昆药集团（600422.SH） 三七产业布局逐步优化， "创新+出海"赋能未来成长 2025 年 03 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/11 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 17.77 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 24.11/11.92 | | 总市值(亿元) | 134.51 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 134.51 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.57 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.57 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 99.96 | 股价走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 昆药集团 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 年利润超预期增长，2025 年轻 装上阵稳步向前 —公司信息更新报 告》-2025.2.11 《Q3 单季度营收利润环比向上，融合 变革深入推进—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.28 《2024H1 营收小幅承压，品牌建设工 作稳步推进—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.24 | 余汝意（分析师） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kunming Pharmaceutical Group [2][6] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.401 billion yuan (down 0.34% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 648 million yuan (up 19.86%) [6] - The acquisition of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to enhance profitability and support the strategic integration of the company's product lines [6] - The stable landing of centralized procurement is anticipated to lead to a recovery in the company's product prices [6] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 9.301 billion yuan, 10.102 billion yuan, and 11.041 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 747 million yuan, 912 million yuan, and 1.135 billion yuan [9] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 3 yuan per ten shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 35.04% [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 43.5% in 2024 to 48.2% by 2027 [9] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on brand building and channel development, with significant growth in key products such as "Kunchinese Medicine 1381" and "Shu Gan Granules" [6] - The integration of Huaren Shenghuo is expected to create a benchmark enterprise in the Sanqi industry chain [6] - The company has successfully maintained stable prices for its products under the centralized procurement policy, which is set to last until December 31, 2027 [6]

医药生物/中药Ⅱ 昆药集团（600422.SH） 三七产业布局逐步优化， "创新+出海"赋能未来成长 2025 年 03 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/3/11 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 17.77 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 24.11/11.92 | | 总市值(亿元) | 134.51 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 134.51 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.57 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 7.57 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 99.96 | 股价走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 昆药集团 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《2024 年利润超预期增长，2025 年轻 装上阵稳步向前 —公司信息更新报 告》-2025.2.11 《Q3 单季度营收利润环比向上，融合 变革深入推进—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.28 《2024H1 营收小幅承压，品牌建设工 作稳步推进—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.24 | 余汝意（分析师） | ...

医药生物/中药Ⅱ 昆药集团（600422.SH） 三七产业布局逐步优化， "创新+出海"赋能未来成长 2025 年 03 月 12 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 相关研究报告 《2024 年利润超预期增长，2025 年轻 装上阵稳步向前 —公司信息更新报 告》-2025.2.11 《Q3 单季度营收利润环比向上，融合 变革深入推进—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.10.28 《2024H1 营收小幅承压，品牌建设工 作稳步推进—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.24 | 余汝意（分析师） | 巢舒然（联系人） | | --- | --- | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | chaoshuran@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790123110015 | 2024 年收购华润圣火 51%股权事项落地，血塞通软胶囊品牌优势进一步加强 2025 年 3 月 12 日，公司公告 2024 年度报告，2024 年实现营收 84.01 亿元（重 述调整前同比+9.07%，重述调整后同比-0.34%，下文皆为同比口径）；归母净利 润 6.48 亿元（重述调整前+ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to embrace centralized procurement policies actively, which will enhance its medical terminal coverage and drive future business development [2][4] - The company reported a stable performance in its oral medication segment, while the injection segment experienced a significant decline [3] - The construction of the Kun Pharmaceutical business model is showing significant results in channel reform, which is expected to improve product accessibility and market coverage [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, which is essentially flat year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 648 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.86% [2] - The company’s oral medication revenue reached 3.693 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 8.15% increase year-on-year, while the injection segment revenue fell by 49.09% to 539 million yuan [3] - The company anticipates a double-digit revenue growth in 2025, with projected revenues of 9.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 757 million yuan [8] Business Segment Analysis - The blood clotting series products showed robust growth, with the sales volume of blood clotting soft capsules increasing by 11.27% to 1.584 billion capsules in 2024 [3] - The company’s wholesale and retail business generated 3.655 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 6.07% year-on-year increase [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing its distribution channels through the Kun Pharmaceutical business model, which aims to improve the coverage of core products in retail terminals [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to embrace centralized procurement policies actively, which will enhance its medical terminal coverage and drive future business development [2][4] - The company reported a stable performance in oral medications, while injections saw a significant decline due to policy adjustments [3] - The construction of the Kun Pharmaceutical business model is expected to yield significant results, improving channel efficiency and market reach [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, which is essentially flat year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 648 million yuan, reflecting a 19.86% increase [2][3] - The company forecasts a double-digit revenue growth for 2025, with projected revenues of 9.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 757 million yuan [8] - Key financial metrics for 2024 include a gross margin of 43.5% and a return on equity (ROE) of 12.3% [7] Business Segment Performance - The oral medication segment generated 3.693 billion yuan in revenue, marking an 8.15% year-on-year increase, while the injection segment saw a 49.09% decline, with revenues of 539 million yuan [3] - The blood-activating series products, particularly the oral formulations, showed robust growth, with sales of blood-activating soft capsules reaching 1.584 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 11.27% [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively participating in national and provincial centralized procurement initiatives, which is expected to stabilize product supply prices and enhance market penetration [4] - The Kun Pharmaceutical business model aims to improve the efficiency of distribution channels and increase product accessibility across various medical institutions [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to embrace centralized procurement policies actively, which will enhance its medical terminal coverage and drive future business development [2][4] - The company reported a stable performance in its oral dosage segment, while the injection segment experienced a significant decline [3] - The construction of the Kun Pharmaceutical business model is showing significant results in channel reform, which is expected to improve product accessibility and market coverage [5][6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.401 billion yuan, which is essentially flat year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 648 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.86% [2][3] - The company forecasts a double-digit revenue growth for 2025, with projected revenues of 9.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 757 million yuan [3][8] - Key financial metrics for 2025 include an EPS of 1.00 yuan, a P/E ratio of 17.76, and a projected gross margin of 44.1% [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.40 billion RMB for 2024, a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 19.86% to 648 million RMB [1]. - The company is undergoing comprehensive reforms and enhancing its operational systems, which are expected to lead to improved efficiency and sales growth for core products [2]. - The integration with China Resources Sanjiu is showing positive results, with core products anticipated to enter a growth phase due to stable procurement contracts and effective channel management [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.40 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 0.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 648 million RMB, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.86% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2024 was approximately 130 million RMB, significantly improving from 25 million RMB in Q4 2023 [1]. Operational Analysis - The company is implementing a 4C operational system to enhance organizational efficiency and talent management, aiming for a more integrated structure [2]. - The company has successfully renewed procurement contracts for its core products, with expectations for increased market penetration and sales volume [2]. - Key products such as Shenling Baizhu Powder and Shugan Wan have shown a combined revenue growth of 20%, with one product surpassing 100 million RMB in revenue [2]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 740 million RMB, 893 million RMB, and 1.07 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 14%, 21%, and 20% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.98 RMB, 1.18 RMB, and 1.42 RMB for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [3].