食品饮料行业 超配 （维持） 曙光渐近，蓄力前行 食品饮料行业 2026 年上半年投资策略 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 2025 年 11 月 24 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 投 资 策 略 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 推荐 ◼ 食品饮料行业今年1-10月跑输沪深300指数。受需求弱复苏以及禁酒 令等因素影响，食品饮料行业今年走势较弱。2025年1-10月份（截至 2025年10月31日），SW食品饮料行业指数整体下跌5.52%，跌幅在所有 申万一级行业中最大，跑输同期沪深300指数23.46个百分点。细分板 块中，所有 ...

点评：此次流传的茅台虚假招商信息，直接损害品牌信誉与商誉，干扰其渠道改革节奏。对市场来 说，"低门槛加盟+低价茅台配额"的噱头，可能诱骗创业者入局，破坏加盟市场秩序。茅台及时辟谣并 明确官方信息渠道，既彰显了品牌责任，也为市场划定了边界。企业与消费者均需坚守正规渠道，共同 维护市场信任。 近日，网络上流传诸如"茅台将在全国拟建850家直营店""启动资金只需50万""提供1499元飞天茅台配 额"等招商信息，并有个别言论借 茅台集团 高层名义制造话题。针对此情况， 贵州茅台 相关部门负责 人明确回应，上述信息均为不实信息，纯属谣言。"目前网络上流传的上述信息，均未获得官方授权， 已严重损害茅台品牌形象与企业商誉。"相关人士介绍，其实茅台所有正规的渠道拓展和信息发布，都 会通过 贵州茅台 官网、官方微信公众号" 贵州茅台 "" 茅台集团 "以及官方授权的权威媒体等渠道进行 公告。 ...

成份股方面，大众品涨幅居前，部分白酒股亦表现不俗。截至发稿，古井贡酒、天味食品双双大涨超 2%，金徽酒、广州酒家、迎驾贡酒、妙可蓝多等多股跟涨超1%。 吃喝板块今日（11月24日）震荡盘整。反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）盘中多数时间红盘 震荡，场内价格最高涨0.65%，后有所回落，截至发稿，涨0.16%。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 ▼ | F9 盘前盘后 盘加 九转 画线 工具 @ 00 | 食品ETF O | 515710 | 5157101食品ETFI 10:33 价 0.512 温庆 0.0010.16%) 均价 0.613 版交量 1732 IDPV | 0.67 | +0.001 +0.16% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.01 | SSE CNY 10:33:54 ...

近日，网络上流传诸如"茅台将在全国拟建850家直营店""启动资金只需50万""提供1499元飞天茅台配 额"等招商信息，并有个别言论借茅台集团高层名义制造话题。针对此情况，贵州茅台相关部门负责人 明确回应，上述信息均为不实信息，纯属谣言。"目前网络上流传的上述信息，均未获得官方授权，已 严重损害茅台品牌形象与企业商誉。"相关人士介绍，其实茅台所有正规的渠道拓展和信息发布，都会 通过贵州茅台官网、官方微信公众号"贵州茅台""茅台集团"以及官方授权的权威媒体等渠道进行公告。 （每经） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has shown a 1.34% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.41 percentage points [12] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment [3][62] - The report highlights a structural shift in dairy imports towards high-value products, driven by changing consumer preferences for low-fat, high-protein, and organic options [7][62] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - A-shares in the food and beverage industry rose by 1.34% from November 10 to November 21, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.41 percentage points [12] - Within the sector, dairy (+6.67%), processed foods (+2.60%), and liquor (+2.52%) saw the highest gains, while soft drinks (-4.27%), health products (-2.25%), and snacks (-1.02%) experienced declines [12] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan/kg, down 2.9% year-on-year [39] - The national market price for pork is 23.13 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% [44] - The price of PET (water bottle grade) is 6,100 yuan/ton, down 3.9% year-on-year [44] 3. Key Events Tracking - The October CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with food prices decreasing by 2.9% [3][62] - Retail sales in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, with significant increases in the sales of grain, oil, and beverages [3][62] - Dairy imports have returned to positive growth, driven by strong demand for high-end products [7][62] 4. Important Company Announcements - Yili Group plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% over the next three years [63] - Huangtai Liquor's major shareholder intends to increase their stake in the company through market purchases [63] 5. Investment Recommendations - For liquor, focus on high-end brands with strong market positions such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [8][65] - In the consumer goods sector, consider companies in the snack and energy drink markets, as well as those benefiting from the recovery of the dairy and restaurant supply chains [8][65]

2025年11月24日早盘，A股三大股指集体高开。从盘面上看，6G、光通信、AI应用、BC电池、算力硬 件概念股活跃；锂矿、水产题材回调。截至 09:54，中证A500指数下跌0.09%，成分股方面涨跌互现， 广汽集团10cm涨停，张江高科上涨7.30%，光启技术上涨4.94%；润和软件领跌，江特电机、雅化集团 跟跌。 A500ETF嘉实(159351)紧密跟踪中证A500指数，均衡布局各行业优质核心资产。 没有股票账户的投资者可以通过A500ETF嘉实联接基金(022454)一键布局A股500强。 华泰证券发布A股策略研报称，近期AI叙事起争论、流动性有所收紧、区域扰动构成了市场波动加大的 底色，当前市场调整已初步具备空间感，对应9月下旬市场中枢位或有较强支撑，后续伴随着海外流动 性预期改善、国内资金压力减弱、市场情绪进一步消化，行情走势环境或更加健康。配置上，当前市场 估值接近"合理"中枢，若超调则可适度提升仓位，配置上围绕中期主线、重视安全边际，关注低位内需 消费、国产算力、创新药等，继续持有大金融以降低波动性。 数据显示，截至2025年10月31日，中证A500指数前十大权重股分别为宁德时代、贵州茅台 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the recovery of the restaurant chain sector and highlights the upcoming Moutai shareholders' meeting as a point of interest [10][18]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is characterized as having low expectations and low holdings, with a potential for a rebound due to rising CPI and positive micro-consumption data [10][18]. - Key companies such as Yili and H&H International are focusing on balancing growth and profitability, with Yili enhancing its dividend commitments and H&H adjusting its revenue guidance upwards [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities within the restaurant chain and liquor sectors, recommending specific companies for investment [10][18]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Yili is focusing on quality leadership and strategic expansion while improving shareholder returns, with a positive outlook on its liquid milk segment and overall profitability [3][12]. - H&H International has seen a significant revenue increase, with a 28.5% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, and is optimizing its debt structure while expanding its online and overseas markets [3][12]. - The report notes that Q3 growth for Yihai International has slightly slowed, but overseas markets continue to perform well, with a focus on product structure optimization to improve margins [3][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to recommend the recovery of the restaurant chain sector, with specific mentions of companies like Haidilao, Angel Yeast, and China Resources Beer as potential investments [10][18]. - For the liquor sector, Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu are highlighted as top picks, with a focus on valuation shifts in growth segments such as snacks and pet food [10][18]. Industry Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating market capitalizations and profit forecasts, with Moutai having a market cap of 183.66 billion and a projected net profit of 74.73 billion for 2023 [19].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market shows a strong performance with a general price increase across the top ten products, indicating positive market sentiment and consumer demand [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products reached 9283 yuan, an increase of 21 yuan from the previous day, marking a recent high in daily price growth [1]. - Qinghua Lang leads the market with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle, achieving its fifth consecutive day of price rise [1]. - Xijiu Junpin and Wuliangye Pu Wu Ba Dai both saw a price increase of 4 yuan per bottle, reflecting a steady upward trend [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Gujing Gong Gu 20 both increased by 3 yuan per bottle, while most products maintained stable or slightly rising prices [1]. - Moutai's boutique price ended its recent decline with a 1 yuan increase, while Feitian Moutai's price remained unchanged [1]. Product Pricing Summary - The following are the current prices and changes for notable products: - Feitian Moutai 53°/500ml: 1835 yuan, unchanged [3] - Boutique Moutai 53°/500ml: 2378 yuan, up 1 yuan [3] - Wuliangye Pu Wu Ba Dai 52°/500ml: 866 yuan, up 4 yuan [3] - Qinghua Fen 20 53°/500ml: 394 yuan, up 1 yuan [3] - Guojiao 1573 52°/500ml: 889 yuan, down 1 yuan [3] - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ 52°/550ml: 592 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - Gujing Gong Gu 20 52°/500ml: 513 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - Xijiu Junpin 53°/500ml: 673 yuan, up 4 yuan [4] - Qinghua Lang 53°/500ml: 725 yuan, up 5 yuan [4] - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun 52°/500ml: 418 yuan, up 1 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent rumors about Kweichow Moutai planning to open 850 new direct stores nationwide have been confirmed as false by the company, which has not issued any such information [1][4]. Group 1: Rumors and Misinformation - Multiple accounts on various platforms have circulated similar content regarding the establishment of new stores, with inconsistent figures such as 650, 680, and 800 stores mentioned [3]. - These articles promote enticing conditions like "low threshold for franchise" and "high quota of flying Moutai," often including links that solicit personal information from users [3]. Group 2: Company Response - Kweichow Moutai's customer service has stated that there has been no notification regarding the construction of over 800 direct stores, emphasizing that typically only one or two direct stores exist per province [4]. - The company has previously faced similar rumors this year, including false information about "Moutai Direct Procurement Summit" and "strategic cooperation," and has issued official statements denying any authorization for such activities [4]. Group 3: Industry Context - Industry analyst Xiao Zhuqing noted that Moutai, as the only brand in the liquor sector maintaining a price-consistent sales strategy, naturally attracts attention, making it susceptible to rumors that spread quickly and easily [4]. - To protect consumer rights, Moutai has been actively publishing official and authorized sales channels, including its "i Moutai" app and major e-commerce platforms [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage & commercial sectors [9][56] Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with market sentiment improving, presenting a good opportunity for low-level positioning. Recent CPI recovery and consensus on destocking, along with the Double 11 shopping festival, have contributed to this trend. The Federal Reserve's dovish signals on November 21 have also created favorable conditions for the market [5][54] - Long-term prospects for leading liquor companies are promising due to their strong risk resistance and increasing market concentration, supported by domestic demand policies and recovering consumer sentiment. The industry is still in a destocking phase, with demand at a low point [5][54] - The consumer goods sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with the snack food segment remaining robust and soft drink leaders maintaining stability during the off-season. The dairy sector is approaching a supply-demand improvement point, while the restaurant industry is shifting from incremental to stock competition due to demand pressure [55] Summary by Sections Industry News - From January to October, white liquor production decreased by 11.5% [16] - The overall sentiment in the sector is improving, driven by the upcoming holiday season and promotional activities [5][54] Company News - Guizhou Moutai has initiated its annual meeting season for Moutai liquor [4] - Wuliangye is launching a new zodiac-themed product for the Year of the Horse [4] Key Company Feedback - The report highlights key companies with strong long-term investment value, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, as well as more flexible stocks like Jiu Gui Jiu and Shede Liquor [5][54][57] Core Data Trends - The cumulative production of white liquor in 2024 is projected at 4.145 million tons, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year, while industry revenue is expected to reach 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [32][33]