Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in the Chinese liquor market, particularly focusing on the retail prices of the top ten liquor products, which showed a slight adjustment after a period of high prices [1][4]. Price Trends - As of February 24, the total retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products was 9,258 yuan, a decrease of 2 yuan from the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top ten products, six saw price increases while four experienced declines. The most notable increase was for the premium Moutai, which rose by 8 yuan per bottle, surpassing the 2,400 yuan mark [1][4]. - Other products that increased in price include Xijiu Junpin (+4 yuan), Guojiao 1573 (+3 yuan), and several others that saw minor increases of 1 yuan [1][4]. - Conversely, the Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ dropped by 10 yuan, marking its fourth consecutive decline, while Feitian Moutai and Gujing Gonggu 20 both decreased by 4 yuan [1][4]. Market Analysis - Major foreign investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS, have released reports indicating a structural differentiation in the liquor industry due to weak consumption during the Spring Festival and inventory pressures [3][6]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that the liquor industry is more likely to experience a bottoming out rather than a full reversal, with high-end liquor showing relatively stable performance during the Spring Festival [3][6]. - UBS notes that the industry is in a "K-shaped recovery" phase, with Moutai implementing channel and pricing strategies to restore sales, although competition in the high-end segment is intensifying [3][6]. - Morgan Stanley observes that inventory pressures among mainstream liquor companies are easing, and demand from banquet and dining channels is expected to support a sequential improvement in the industry [3][6]. - Overall, foreign institutions believe that the recovery in the liquor industry is characterized by "high-end stability and layered recovery," with a focus on demand improvement and price stability for leading brands in the second half of the year [3][6].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·食品饮料 食品饮料行业跟踪周报 从"历史经典产业"到"传统优势民生产业" ， 新五年酿酒产业提质发展 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 02 月 22 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙瑜 执业证书：S0600523120002 suny@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 食品饮料 沪深300 2026-02-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 从"历史经典"到"优势民生"产业，再度定调酿酒产业重要地位，鼓 励高质量发展。继 2025 年 10 月工信部发布《关于推动历史经典产业高 质量发展的指导意见（2026—2030 年）（征求意见稿）》，近期工信部、 人社部、市场监管总局再度印发《酿酒产业提质升级指导意见（2026— 2030 年）》，明确定调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in demand for Moutai liquor during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by both B-end (distributors and self-operated stores) and C-end (individual consumers) orders, leading to challenges in supply chain management and logistics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The demand for Moutai liquor has surged, with many distributors reporting that they have sold out their January and February quotas before the Spring Festival, even prepaying for part of the March quota [1]. - The average wholesale price for the 2026 version of Moutai is reported to be stable, with prices around 1,700 RMB per bottle for boxed versions and between 1,660 to 1,690 RMB for loose bottles, indicating a price increase compared to previous years [1]. Group 2: Warehouse and Logistics Operations - The "Moutai Shuanglong Warehouse" in Guizhou covers approximately 155 acres and has a total construction area of 108,000 square meters, with a storage capacity of 32,000 tons of finished liquor and over 10.6 million boxes [2]. - The warehouse has seen a doubling of workload compared to previous years, shifting from bulk shipments to handling a large volume of small, immediate orders [3]. - The warehouse employs an automated system for inventory management, utilizing barcode scanning and real-time tracking to ensure efficient sorting and dispatching of products [3][7]. Group 3: Staffing and Operational Adjustments - To cope with the increased workload, the warehouse has expanded its workforce, adding 30 to 40 personnel for B-end orders and over 70 for C-end orders daily [4]. - New shipping warehouses in Nanjing and Beijing have been established to facilitate faster delivery for C-end consumers, significantly reducing delivery times [4]. Group 4: Collaboration with Logistics Partners - Moutai logistics collaborates with JD and SF Express for distribution, with each partner focusing on specific delivery tasks to enhance efficiency [6]. - SF Express has developed customized packaging solutions to prevent damage during transport and has implemented a "consolidation" delivery method for small orders to improve safety and efficiency [6]. Group 5: Retail Experience and Consumer Interaction - The increase in online orders has transformed Moutai's retail stores into crucial points connecting online purchases with offline experiences, leading to a three to fourfold increase in customer traffic [9]. - Retail staff have been adjusted to manage the increased customer volume, with extended operational hours to accommodate the demand [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing trend of instant retail in the white liquor market during the Chinese New Year, driven by consumer demand for immediate purchases and gifting [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Trends - Instant retail has become the new mainstream for white liquor consumption during the Spring Festival, with platforms like Meituan and Taobao promoting "春节不打烊" (Spring Festival does not close) to capture consumer attention [2][7] - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior from "buying in advance" to "immediate needs," indicating a growing demand for quick purchases during festive occasions [5][6] Group 2: Sales Performance - The flagship store of 1919 has experienced a slight increase in sales compared to previous years, with specific brands like Honghua Lang performing particularly well among casual customers [6][7] - Major liquor companies, including Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, are actively collaborating with retail platforms to leverage the instant retail trend, which has shown significant growth in sales figures [7] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Customers are increasingly making urgent purchases during meals, with delivery times often within 30 minutes, reflecting the demand for convenience [6] - The store's location in a commercial area has led to a higher demand for white liquor, particularly for business gatherings and gifting [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end brands, indicating a strategic buy recommendation for major players like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [3][7]. Core Insights - The overall sales volume for the liquor industry during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to decline by 10%-20% year-on-year, which is slightly better than market expectations prior to the festival [3][6]. - A significant characteristic of the 2026 Spring Festival sales is the increasing differentiation and concentration among top brands, with high-end liquor performing exceptionally well. Moutai is projected to see a sales increase of over 30% year-on-year, while Wuliangye is expected to grow by 5%-10% [3][6]. - The industry is entering a notable destocking phase, with inventory levels for first-tier brands significantly lower than the same period last year [3][6]. - Prices for first-tier brands are stabilizing, with Moutai's price currently above 1700 yuan, expected to stabilize above 1600 yuan post-festival [3][6]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - High-end liquor brands are outperforming expectations, with Moutai showing the best performance. Wuliangye is leveraging price adjustments to increase volume, while Guojiao 1573 is maintaining price stability [8][6]. - Moutai's sales are expected to grow by over 30%, with inventory levels at distributors being nearly zero [8][6]. - Wuliangye's sales are projected to increase by 5%-10%, with inventory levels at distributors around 10%-15% lower than last year [8][6]. - Guojiao 1573 is expected to see a sales decline of 15%-20%, while its low-end variant remains stable [8][6]. Regional Feedback - Feedback from various regions indicates a mixed performance, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showing resilience, while mid-tier and local brands face challenges [19][21]. - In North China, overall sales are down by about 15%, with high-end brands benefiting from increased consumer interest [12][21]. - In Jiangsu, the overall sales volume is expected to decline by 10%-15%, with Moutai maintaining stable performance [19][21]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the second half of 2026 will see a turning point for top brands in terms of sales and financial performance, with a potential dual boost in valuation and earnings by the end of the year [7][3]. - The industry trend is shifting towards consolidation, with larger companies absorbing smaller ones, leading to inevitable differentiation among listed companies [7][3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the complex dynamics of the Chinese high-end liquor market, particularly focusing on Kweichow Moutai, which is experiencing a paradox of both "shortage" and "oversupply" amid significant market adjustments. Group 1: Supply and Demand Imbalance - Kweichow Moutai distributors are facing inventory shortages, with some regions selling out of quotas for January and February ahead of time, leading to pre-orders for March supplies [1] - In Shenzhen, the price of a single bottle of Moutai has exceeded 1800 yuan, with daily price increases surpassing 100 yuan, as distributors report a lack of stock [1] - The surge in demand is attributed to a structural change in distribution channels, with online platforms processing over 1.43 million transactions in January, creating pressure from both consumer demand and traditional B2B shipments [1] Group 2: High Inventory and Price Discrepancies - In stark contrast to the "shortage" claims, there is a significant social inventory of over 10 million bottles accumulated in distribution channels [3] - By the end of 2025, the wholesale price of Moutai fell below the official guidance price of 1499 yuan, marking a historical low, while actual costs for distributors reached 1700-1800 yuan per bottle, leading to losses of 200 yuan per bottle sold [3] - Panic selling by scalpers and e-commerce platform subsidies have exacerbated the situation, creating a vicious cycle of declining prices [3] Group 3: Channel Revolution and Traditional Profit Chain Disruption - In 2026, Moutai initiated a channel restructuring by eliminating traditional distribution rights, increasing direct sales from 43% to over 60% [3] - The i Moutai app has adopted a model of daily limited purchases at 1499 yuan with frequent restocking, which reduces the profit margins for scalpers but forces distributors to sell at a loss to recover funds [3] - The deeper conflict arises as Moutai aims to reclaim a profit margin of 330 yuan per bottle through direct sales, while distributors struggle to survive on a mere 30% retail margin [3] Group 4: Consumption Decline and Demand Reversion - The industry is facing a downturn due to a shrinking core consumer base, with a significant reduction in business banquets related to government and real estate sectors, and younger consumers moving away from traditional drinking culture [4] - Actual annual consumption of Moutai is around 40 million bottles, while annual production capacity exceeds 100 million bottles, leading to a social inventory backlog of 80 million bottles [4] - Distributors indicate that a bottle opening rate of 45% would signify a healthy industry [4] Group 5: Transformation Challenges and Future Pathways - In response to the challenges, Moutai is implementing "surgical" adjustments, including halting December shipments and reducing non-standard product quotas by 30%-50%, aiming to raise wholesale prices from 1499 yuan to 1580 yuan [5] - Long-term reforms focus on three main areas: de-financialization to reduce speculative hoarding, channel integration encouraging distributors to become "cultural connoisseurs," and consumer reconstruction by introducing low-alcohol sparkling wines to appeal to younger demographics [5] - The simultaneous existence of "shortage" and "oversupply" reflects the necessary transition of the high-end liquor industry in China from a resource-driven to a value-driven model, aiming to return to the essence of quality liquor [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the structural differentiation in the Chinese liquor market, particularly the impact of Moutai's price rationalization on the mid-range liquor segment, which is facing significant challenges [2][6][7] - Moutai's price has shifted from a speculative high to a more rational level, with the official price set at 1499 yuan and market prices stabilizing between 1699 and 1999 yuan, enhancing market efficiency [6][7] - The rationalization of Moutai's pricing has weakened its role as a price benchmark, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of mid-range products as consumers opt for either Moutai or lower-priced options [7][10] Group 2 - The mid-range liquor segment is experiencing a "double squeeze," facing upward pressure from high-end products and downward competition from low-end products, particularly the rising quality of low-end liquors like light bottle wines [8][10] - Low-end products, priced between 30 and 80 yuan, are increasingly appealing to price-sensitive consumers, further constricting the market space for mid-range liquors [10] - The mid-range segment must move beyond price competition and focus on creating unique value propositions, such as targeting specific consumer scenarios and emphasizing the uniqueness of production processes [11][13] Group 3 - To survive, mid-range liquor brands need to optimize their channel structures and avoid over-reliance on inventory pressure, focusing instead on healthy relationships with distributors [13] - The return to rational pricing in the Moutai segment is not a market downturn but a re-evaluation of value, indicating that brands that can establish a clear identity and unique value will thrive in the evolving market landscape [13]

2025年是白酒行业近年来承压最明显的一年。 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1-12月，我国白酒（折65度，商品量）累计产量为354.9万千升，累计下降12.1%，行业迎来连续第九年产量下滑。根据2025年 10月31日智通财经《多家白酒企业前三季业绩"失速"：茅台净利增长6% 有公司称行业调整将持续一段时间》的报道，2025年1-9月全国规模以上白酒企业产 量为265.50万千升，同比下降9.90%。 渠道库存压力成为行业普遍痛点。中国酒业协会与毕马威联合发布的《2025中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，2025年上半年，58.1%的经销商反映库存持 续增加，价格倒挂现象加剧，800-1500元价格带酒类产品价格倒挂最为严重。这种库存压力直接反映在行业运营效率上：根据2025年8月28日中国酒业新闻 网《酒业如何穿越弱周期，构建寒冬期的生存与破局之道？》的报道，行业平均存货周转天数已达900天，同比增加10%，部分中小企业甚至超过180天。 2026年春节旺季前，茅台批价回升提振了市场信心，但白酒市场动销复苏分化明显。头部白酒企业凭借品牌优势率先实现经营企稳，多数中小品牌仍通过降 价促销的方式消化库存。 20 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is experiencing a "moderate recovery under structural differentiation" during the 2026 Spring Festival, with strong demand for high-end brands, stable growth for mass-market products, and pressure on mid-range categories [1][10]. High-End Brands - Moutai is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with many distributors reporting sold-out quotas for January-February 2026, leading to price increases. The wholesale price for Moutai has risen to 1,700 RMB per bottle, up from a low of 1,500 RMB earlier in the year [2][12]. - As of February 11, 2026, Moutai's sales growth is significantly outperforming the industry, with a year-on-year increase of 10%-20% in multiple regions [2][12]. - Wuliangye is also performing well, with distributors achieving around 40% of their annual sales targets by February 11, although regional sales performance varies [3][12]. Mid-Range and Low-End Products - Mid-range brands are under pressure, with many experiencing slower sales and market share erosion. For example, Gujing Gongjiu's high-end products have seen a decline of over 20% due to reduced business banquets [4][5]. - In contrast, low-end products are maintaining resilience, supported by banquet and everyday consumption. Sales in the 100-300 RMB price range have shown significant improvement compared to the previous year [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The overall economic environment remains challenging, and the current surge in liquor sales is largely attributed to pre-holiday demand, which may lead to inventory buildup and price corrections post-holiday [7][16]. - The liquor industry is expected to see more operators exit the market in the next 3-5 years, driven by survival and payment crises, which may lead to a continuous supply of low-priced liquor [8][17]. Consumer Trends - Moutai is expanding its consumer base beyond traditional high-end customers, with a notable increase in family consumption during the Spring Festival. A survey indicated that 43.85% of participants included Moutai in their New Year's Eve dinners this year [9][17].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in the Chinese liquor market, particularly focusing on the retail prices of the top ten liquor products, which showed a mixed performance with six products declining and four increasing in price [1][6]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for a package of the top ten liquor products is 9,247 yuan, a decrease of 4 yuan from the previous day [1][6]. - Among the price increases, Qinghua Lang rose by 10 yuan per bottle, marking its sixth consecutive increase; Guojiao 1573 followed with an 8 yuan increase; and Gujing Gong 20 increased by 4 yuan [1][6]. - On the downside, Xijiu Junpin and Qinghua Fen 20 both dropped by 7 yuan per bottle, indicating ongoing inventory pressure in the mid-range segment; other declines included Shujin Jianan Chun down by 5 yuan, and both Jingpin Moutai and Feitian Moutai down by 4 yuan and 3 yuan respectively [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, aiming to provide an objective and traceable market price [4][9]. - The introduction of new sales channels for Moutai products has begun to influence their market prices, with Feitian Moutai priced at 1,499 yuan and Jingpin Moutai at 2,299 yuan [4][9]. Industry Trends - A report published on the 21st highlighted seven core development trends in the liquor industry, including price polarization, the rise of mass consumption as a market stabilizer, and the emergence of new retail formats [4][9]. - The report also noted that the price range of 100-300 yuan is becoming a market necessity, and that traditional liquor stores are undergoing significant transformations [4][9].