Investment Rating - Maintains a target price of 2600 yuan and a "Strong Buy" rating [16] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the pricing paradigm for baijiu is shifting, with growth stability and committed dividend payout ratio becoming key factors [35] - The company has sufficient operational strategies to navigate through the current cycle, focusing on stable and sustainable growth [37] - The report projects a 10% annual growth rate for the next five years, with a potential doubling of investment returns [47] Key Points by Section Dividend Perspective - The dividend yield has surpassed the 10-year government bond yield, and there is room for further improvement in the dividend payout ratio [8][148] Inventory Value - The estimated value of the company's stored liquor exceeds 1.5 trillion yuan, with 29.4 million tons of liquor in inventory, including 1.4 million tons of finished products and 28 million tons of semi-finished products [9] Valuation and Growth - The valuation is expected to recover to 1.2 times the current level, with a potential 20% upside from the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 20x [12] - The company's growth is expected to stabilize around 10%, with a projected revenue of 240 billion yuan and profit of 120 billion yuan by 2028 [47] Market and Pricing Strategy - The company maintains control over pricing, with a focus on preventing a collapse in liquor prices and ensuring stability [62] - The retail price of Moutai is anchored around 1499 yuan, close to the minimum wage level, ensuring affordability and market stability [120] Historical Performance and Future Outlook - Historically, Moutai's stock price has shown a strong correlation with liquor prices, with the stock price stabilizing before liquor prices during downturns [15] - The company's future growth is expected to align with GDP growth, with a projected sales growth rate of around 4% over the next decade [131][161] Operational Strategies - The company plans to expand its overseas market, aiming for 10 billion yuan in sales by 2027 [139] - Traditional distributor channels may see price increases, with potential adjustments in the next few years [139] Risk Management - The company has a robust toolkit for technical adjustments to stabilize prices, including dynamic quota adjustments for distributors [89] - The company is prepared to open additional distribution rights in extreme scenarios to manage supply and demand imbalances [167] Financial Projections - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 at 70.30, 78.96, and 87.22 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 2600 yuan [16] - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% over the next five years, reaching 240 billion yuan by 2028 [47]

贵州茅台（600519） 释放风险，提升价值 2024 年 07 月 03 日 市场数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 图3：茅台已经构建起多元渠道体系 自营专 卖店 大企业 其他 团购和i 茅台 茅台酒 多元销 售渠道 电商平 经销商 台和商 超直供 贵州地 方平台 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件：上证报消息，7 月 1 日贵州茅台党委副书记、代总经理王莉在北京 主持召开投资者交流会，听取投资者对茅台市值管理工作的意见建议，解 答投资者关心的问题并探讨茅台未来发展的新路径。 ◼ 回应市场关切，体现龙头担当。5 月以来飞天茅台酒批价持续快速下跌， 引发集中关注和较大担忧，市场对公司能否采取有效稳价举措信心不 足，对中长期需求的稳定性信心不足。近期公司管理层一方面加强市场 调研和经销商沟通指导，批价应声企稳反弹（当前散瓶批价较 6 月低位 反弹约 250 元），一方面加强和投资者互动，倾听投资者声音和建议， 正面回应市场关切，体现了龙头担当。 ◼ 调整期价格回落释放风险，渠道布局完善更具韧性。公司认为茅台酒处 于调整期，且逢"三期叠加"——新旧 ...

更多资 wholesale price, and d) With this cycle, we see the company has been squeezing out the speculative demand e.g scalpers, for longer term healthy growth. | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|---------------| | | | | | 1Q23 | | 2Q23 | | 3Q23 | | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | | 2Q24 momentum | | | Wuliangye: Common Wuliangye | | ...

[Table_yemei] 贵州茅台（600519）动态点评 [Table_Rank] 增持（维持） ]yrtsudnI_elbaT[ 2024 年 06 月 25 日 近期茅台批价走弱，茅台酒销售公司已通知取消大箱茅台投放，陈年 茅台、精品茅台将暂停投放。 公司出台多项挺价措施，提振市场信心。大箱是市场散装飞天茅台酒 的主要来源，一般拆箱销售。拆箱令源于 2021 年，最初目的在于价 格上涨时的控价稳价。彼时在茅台酒供需平衡，一瓶难求下，拆箱令 成为增加市场中散瓶茅台酒供给，缩小原箱、散瓶价格差，进而控价 稳价的重要手段。此次挺价过程中，公司采取了取消大箱投放、暂停 陈年茅台、精品茅台的投放等措施，出手控量保价。有望在短期内快 速调整主力产品飞天与其它非标产品的供需关系，稳定整体价盘，提 振市场信心。 [Table_ 东方财富证券研究所 Author] | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------| | | | | [Table_ 基本数据 Basedata ] | | | 总市值（百万元 ) | 1867526.46 | ...

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 从历史复盘看茅台批价演绎 ——贵州茅台（600519.SH）批价复盘与展望 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------------------|-------------------------| | | | | | [table_Authors | 訾猛 ] ( 分析师 ) | 李美仪 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38038667 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | limeiyi026738@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880122070042 | 本报告导读： 本轮飞天批价波动系需求偏弱背景下部分渠道短期行为，据我们测算当前批价向下空 间相对有限，风险出清后预计将逐步企稳，茅台批价和股价有望进入新均衡。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|---------|------ ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|-------------------|-------------------------| | | | | | [table_Authors | 訾猛 ] ( 分析师 ) | 李美仪 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38038667 | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | limeiyi026738@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880122070042 | [Table_Industry] 食品饮料/必需消费 贵州茅台(600519) | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-----------------| | | | | 52 周内股价区间（元） | 1577.00-1897.00 | | 总市值（百万元） | 2,070,779 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 1,256/1,256 | | 流通 B 股 /H 股（百万股） | 0 ...

公司研究 贵州茅台（600519.SH）事件点评 证券研究报告 2024 年 6 月 5 日 湘财证券研究所 ——股东大会事件点评 ❑ 事件：5 月 29 日，贵州茅台召开 2023 年股东大会 ❑ 点评：立足质量，行稳致远 ❑ 投资建议 近十二个月公司表现 分析师：李育文 证书编号：S0500523060001 Tel：021-50295328 Email：liyw3@xcsc.com ❑ 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------|-----------------------------|---------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 财务预测 | 2023 | 2024E 2025E | | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 150560 174500 199053 225035 | | | | 同比 | 18.0% | 15.9% | 14.1% | 13.1% | | 净利润 | | 74734 86043 98765 11185 ...

风险提示：省内竞争加剧，公司出现重大管理瑕疵；宏观经济发生较大的波动，白 酒消费有大幅下滑等。 财务数据与估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 会计年度 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入(百万元 ) | 127,554 | 150,560 | 173,674 | 201,685 | 236,138 | | YoY(%) | 16.5 | 18.0 | 15.4 | 16.1 | 17.1 | | 归母净利润 (百万元) | 62,716 | 74,734 | 87,398 | 102,765 | 121,184 | | YoY(%) | 19.6 | 19.2 | 16.9 | 17.6 | 17.9 | | 毛利率 (%) | 92.1 | 92.1 | 92.6 | 92.5 | 92.4 | | EPS(摊薄/元) | 49.93 | 59.49 ...

所属行业：食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：1,648.45 1.《贵州茅台（600519）2024 一季报 点评：一季度税金影响业绩，开局奠定 优良基础》，2024.4.29 2.《贵州茅台（600519）2023 年报点 评：23 年稳健收官，24 年收入目标 15%左右》，2024.4.7 3.《贵州茅台（600519）》，2023.11.2 投资要点 买入（维持） 市场表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 沪深 300 对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -3.32 | -4.23 | -2.17 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | -2.64 | -3.80 | -3.36 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 贵州茅台（600519.SH）：i 茅台运营复 盘报告："享约申购"主导营收，"畅 享云购"有望贡献增长 创新营销模式，酒企教字化营销成功范例 1.1. 酒企垂直电商标杆与数字化转型先锋 i 茅台是茅台集团数字 ...

证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 投资建议 预测个股相对同期证券市场代表性指数涨幅 | | 1 | 买入 | > 20% | | 2 | 增持 | 10% — 20% | | 3 | 中性 | -10% — 10% | | 4 | 卖出 | < -10% | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，华鑫证券研究部门及相关研究人员力求准 确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。我们已力求报告内容 客观、公正，但报告中的信息与所表达的观点不构成所述证券买卖的出价或询 价的依据，该等信息、意见并未考虑到获取本报告人员的具体投资目的、财务 状况以及特定需求，在任何时候均不构成对任何人的个人推荐。投资者应当对 本报告中的信息和意见进行独立评估，并应同时结合各自的投资目的、财务状 况和特定需求，必要时就财务、法律、商业、税收等方面咨询专业顾问的意 见。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，华鑫证券及/或其关联人员均不 承担任何法律责任。本 ...