周期，周期，还是周期！ 作者 | 萧瑟 编辑 | 小白 农林牧渔可以说是与春节关系最为紧密的行业，毕竟春节时间节点的确定依据正是古时的农业历法。 农业社会中，春节往往被视作是新一轮生产周期起始的标志。而人们在此时进行的各种庆祝习俗，也 有祈愿新的一年风调雨顺、农业丰收的寓意。 但在二级市场，2024年对于农业来讲并不是一个友好的年份。申万农林牧渔指数全年下跌11.6%，不 仅跑输上证指数24.2pct，更是在31个行业中排在倒数第二。 从行业名字中我们也能感受到，农林牧渔业态繁多，包含种植、养殖、捕捞等，仅用单一指数很难对 下跌原因一以概之。 因此我们还是按老规矩，聚焦到前十大市值公司来逐个剖析。 有意思的是，从这十家公司的股价表现看，倒是很难感受到行业整体的颓势，甚至其中还有接近翻倍 的个股。 | 公司名称 | 2024年末市值(亿元) | 全年涨跌幅 | 二级行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 2099.9 | J. 4.7% | 养殖业(申万) | | 金龙鱼 | 1768.0 | 2.0% | 农产品加工(申万) | | 温氏股份 | 1098.6 | J ...

证券代码：600598 证券简称：北大荒 公告编号：2024-036 黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司 涉诉（仲裁）案件进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ●案件所处的诉讼阶段：恢复执行阶段。 ●上市公司所处的当事人地位：黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司为本案的原 告。 公司一审判决生效后及时向农垦中院申请强制执行，于 2022 年 5 月、2022 年 7 月相继收到农垦中院送达的案号为（2022）黑 81 执 96 号《执行裁定书》， 提取、查封被执行人龙垦麦芽公司多处资金及资产。（公告编号：2022-023； 2022-032） 1 ●是否会对上市公司损益产生负面影响：公司恢复执行了龙垦麦芽公司的部 分房产，并依法进行拍卖，本次恢复执行案件现已执行完毕。最终影响金额及会 计处理须以注册会计师审计确认后的结果为准，敬请投资者注意投资风险。 黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司（以下简称："公司"）于 2024 年 12 月 27 日收到黑龙江省农垦中级法院（以下简称："农垦中院"）作出的(202 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - The company discussed is Beidahuang Agricultural Group, one of the earliest agricultural listed companies in China, established in 1947 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2020 [2][3] - Beidahuang operates approximately 10.43 million acres of farmland, focusing on land leasing as its core business model, which generates stable rental income [3][4] - The company has undergone significant restructuring since 2014, refocusing on its core agricultural operations and divesting non-agricultural assets [2][3] Industry Context - The agricultural sector in China faces a growing demand-supply gap in arable land, with the total arable land area decreasing from over 2 billion acres in 2009 to approximately 1.9 billion acres in 2022 [6][7] - The government has set a target to maintain a minimum of 1.8 billion acres of arable land by 2030, known as the "18 billion acres red line" [7][8] - The demand for agricultural products is projected to exceed current planting areas by 18% in 2022, potentially increasing to over 22% by 2033 [8] Key Business Insights - Beidahuang's business model is centered around land leasing, which has proven to be low-risk and generates high profit margins [3][4] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the Ministry of Finance holding approximately 64% of the shares, distinguishing it from other state-owned enterprises [5][6] - The company has maintained a high cash dividend payout ratio of 70% to 90%, reflecting strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns [5][6] Competitive Advantages - Beidahuang is positioned as a leading agricultural producer in Heilongjiang, a key grain-producing region in China, which enhances its competitive advantage in securing arable land resources [8][9] - The company has modernized its agricultural services, including the use of advanced machinery and aerial application for crop protection, which supports operational efficiency [4][5] Challenges and Considerations - The agricultural sector's reliance on a dual management system, combining state-owned farms with contracted labor, may lead to resource allocation issues and inefficiencies [10][11] - The ongoing urbanization and land use changes pose challenges to maintaining arable land availability, necessitating innovative agricultural practices and resource management [6][7] Conclusion - Beidahuang Agricultural Group is strategically positioned within a challenging agricultural landscape, leveraging its extensive land resources and modern agricultural practices to drive growth and profitability while navigating industry challenges [2][3][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 18.76 yuan over the next six months, based on a current price of 15.27 yuan [1][42]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in its main business due to the implementation of operational reforms and competitive bidding mechanisms, leading to an increase in land leasing income [2][25]. - The company is positioned as a leading agricultural enterprise in China, benefiting from rich land resources and a favorable geographical location in the world's major black soil belts, which enhances the quality and competitiveness of its agricultural products [2][32]. - The company plans to produce approximately 12 billion jin of high-quality crops, including rice, corn, and soybeans, in 2024, continuing to explore potential in green and organic products [2][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Heilongjiang Provincial Agricultural Reclamation Bureau, was restructured in December 2020 and operates in a region with a total land area of 53,600 square kilometers, making it a significant grain production base in China [17][19]. Company Analysis - The company has a total land area of 12.96 million acres, with 11.58 million acres of arable land, and operates 16 agricultural subsidiaries focused on producing major crops [2][32]. - Land rental prices have been increasing in line with rising grain prices, which has positively impacted the company's land leasing business [2][30]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.62 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.72 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 23, and 21 [3][42]. - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in land leasing and agricultural material sales, with projected revenue growth rates of 8% for land leasing and 5% for agricultural materials from 2024 to 2026 [37][41].

证券代码：600598 证券简称：北大荒 公告编号：2024-035 黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2024 年 11 月 12 日(星期二)至 11 月 18 日(星期 一)16:00 前登录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或 通过公司邮箱 sse600598@163.com 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对 投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 29 日发布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投 资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年第三季度经营成果、财务状况， 公司计划于 2024 年 11 月 19 日上午 09:00-10:00 举行 2024 年第三 季度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2024 年第 三季度的经营成果及财务指标的具体情况 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - The company reported a revenue of 4.358 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% [1] - Operating profit reached 1.373 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.7% compared to the previous year [1][2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.347 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 4.13% [2] Key Financial Insights - Revenue growth was primarily driven by the expansion of land contract loans and improved earnings from land leasing [2] - The profit growth lagged behind revenue growth due to increased social insurance costs resulting from policy changes in Heilongjiang Province [3][4] - Social insurance payment base increased significantly from 54,000 to 82,000, impacting the company's expenses [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - Land contract fees accounted for approximately 2.8 billion yuan, with an 8.9% year-on-year increase [6] - Agricultural services and loans contributed around 1.33 billion yuan [6] - Agricultural inputs and social services generated about 330 million yuan [6] - Sales from grain consumers amounted to 120 million yuan [7] Profit Sources - The main profit sources include land contract fees (90% of total profit), financial management income, and farm operations [8][9] - The company maintains a low debt-to-asset ratio, which is beneficial for financial stability [5] Market and Policy Environment - The company is cautious about potential asset impairments and is monitoring the real estate market closely [11][12] - There is a focus on ensuring that any asset acquisitions or mergers align with the company's strategic goals and financial health [14] Future Outlook - The company anticipates challenges in setting land rental prices due to market trends and potential downward pressure on agricultural prices [23][24] - The management believes that historical data suggests land rental prices are unlikely to decrease significantly [27][28] Risk Management - The company has not engaged in hedging strategies for agricultural products but is focused on maintaining strong supplier relationships and risk management practices [29][30] Additional Notes - The company is actively pursuing the development of its graphite assets and has signed a framework agreement with a mining partner [17] - There are ongoing efforts to manage legal issues related to past investments and potential liabilities [20][21] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the company's solid financial performance amidst rising costs and market challenges, with a focus on strategic growth and risk management moving forward.

黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司 第七届董事会第二十七次会议（临时）决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司（以下简称："公司"）于 2024 年 11 月 8 日召开第七届董事会第二十七次会议（临时），会议通知于 2024 年 11 月 3 日以 专人送达、传真和电子邮件的形式发出，本次会议以通讯方式表决，全部董事均 参加了会议。会议符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的有关规定，会议的召开及议 案事项合法有效。本次会议决议通过以下议案： 证券代码：600598 证券简称：北大荒 公告编号：2024-033 同意 7 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 一、关于选举董事长的议案 选举马忠峙先生为公司第七届董事会董事长，不再担任总经理职务，任期与 第七届董事会保持一致。 同意 7 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票。 二、关于拟聘任张允海先生为总经理的议案 经公司董事会提名委员会建议，聘任张允海先生为公司总经理，任期与第七 届董事会保持一致。 本议案，经公司第七届董事会提名委员会 2024 年 ...

经公司第七届董事会提名委员会 2024 年第二次会议审核，张允海先生符合 担任公司高级管理人员任职要求，公司董事会同意聘任张允海先生为公司总经 理。以上人员任期均与公司第七届董事会保持一致。 马忠峙先生、张允海先生的任职资格均符合《公司法》《上海证券交易所股 票上市规则》等相关法律法规及《公司章程》的相关要求，不存在受到中国证监 会、上海证券交易所及其他有关部门处罚的情形。 证券代码：600598 证券简称：北大荒 公告编号：2024-034 黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司 关于选举董事长、聘任总经理的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 黑龙江北大荒农业股份有限公司（以下简称：公司）于 2024 年 11 月 8 日召 开了第七届董事会第二十七次会议（临时），审议通过了《关于选举董事长的议 案》《关于拟聘任张允海先生为总经理的议案》。 公司第七届董事会选举马忠峙先生为公司董事长，不再担任公司总经理职 务。根据《公司章程》规定，董事长为公司的法定代表人，公司后续将尽快办理 法定代表人工商变更登记手续。 二〇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Wang Zhaocheng, Chairman of Beidahuang Agricultural Reclamation Group, and Ge Zongjun, Secretary of the Party Committee of Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University, focused on deepening school-enterprise cooperation to enhance resource advantages and achieve mutual benefits in various sectors [1] Group 1: Cooperation Goals - The company aims to leverage its resources to focus on its main responsibilities in agriculture, promoting the integration of "four agricultures" and "five good integrations" [1] - There is a commitment to accelerate the construction of large bases, enterprises, and industries, with the goal of achieving the "five transformations" [1] Group 2: Areas of Collaboration - The cooperation will emphasize high-end talent cultivation, technology transfer, research platform development, technological innovation, and the study of Beidahuang spirit [1] - The objective is to strengthen cooperation in a way that enables mutual empowerment and win-win outcomes through industry-education integration [1]

本资产评估报告依据中国资产评估准则编制 北大荒集团黑龙江二九一农场有限公司 拟转让资产涉及的资产价值评估项目 资产评估报告 中同华评报字（2024）第 031107 号 共一册 第一册 北京中同华资产评估有限公司 China Alliance Appraisal Co.,Ltd. 日期：2024 年 6 月 17 日 地址：北京市丰台区丽泽路 16 号院北京汇亚大厦 28 层 邮编：100073 电话：010-68090001 传真：010-68090099 | 声明 1 | | --- | | 资产评估报告摘要 2 | | 资产评估报告正文 4 | | 一、委托人（产权持有人）和资产评估委托合同约定的其他资产评估报告使用人概 | | 况 4 | | 二、评估目的 5 | | 三、评估对象和评估范围 5 | | 四、价值类型及其定义 7 | | 五、评估基准日 8 | | 六、评估依据 8 | | 七、评估方法 10 | | 八、评估程序实施过程和情况 13 | | 九、评估假设 13 | | 十、评估结论 14 | | 十一、特别事项说明 15 | | 十二、资产评估报告使用限制说明 17 | | 十三、资 ...