2025年9月17日，中船海洋与防务装备股份有限公司(" 中船防务 "，股份代号：600685.SH/0317.HK)及中 国船舶集团(香港)航运租赁有限公司("中国船舶租赁"，股份代号：3877.HK)于香港JW万豪酒店成功举 行了2025年中期业绩联合发布会。中船防务董事会秘书及公司秘书李志东先生、中国船舶租赁总会计师 及首席合规官王善君先生等多位公司管理层出席会议。本次会议共邀请了机构投资者、分析师及媒体代 表超100余位参会。会议介绍了中船防务及中国船舶租赁2025年中期经营业绩、业务与投资亮点以及未 来重点工作部署与展望，并针对资本市场关心与聚焦的问题，给予了全面、准确且深入的解答。 最后，中船防务董事会秘书及公司秘书李志东先生就公司2025年中期发展情况进行了总结，"面对船舶 市场发展机遇期，公司秉承'创新、高效、协作、共赢'的企业精神，积极构建'海洋防务装备产业'、'船 舶海工装备产业'、'海洋科技创新应用产业'三大产业布局，以高质量发展为目标，对标先进，进一步深 化精益管理、推进成本工程，不断提升经营效益与核心竞争力，力争为全体股东创造更大价值。" 随着会议顺利进入第二部分，中国船舶租赁管理层 ...

Group 1 - The China Shipbuilding sector experienced a decline of 0.67%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with major companies like China Shipbuilding, China Ship Defense, and China Power seeing significant drops [1] - Among the stocks in the China Shipbuilding sector, three stocks saw price increases, with China Ship Special Gas rising by 2.35%, Kunshan Intelligent by 1.15%, and Jiuzhiyang by 0.11% [1] Group 2 - The main concept sectors with notable price changes included Reducers (+3.72%), Humanoid Robots (+3.58%), and Automotive Thermal Management (+3.28%), while the China Shipbuilding sector was among those with declines [2] - The China Shipbuilding sector saw a net outflow of 936 million yuan in principal funds, with eight stocks experiencing outflows, and seven stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] - The stock with the highest net outflow was China Shipbuilding, with a net outflow of 737.42 million yuan, followed by China Power and China Ship Defense with outflows of 65.01 million yuan and 41.50 million yuan, respectively [2]

Market Performance - The marine equipment sector experienced a significant increase of 40.79% on September 16, with Zhongke Haixun leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Zhongke Haixun (300810) closed at 47.27, with a rise of 6.34% and a trading volume of 87,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 404 million yuan [1] - Hailanxin (300065) closed at 68.81, up 1.23%, with a trading volume of 374,300 shares and a transaction value of 694 million yuan [1] - Tianhai Defense (300008) closed at 6.53, with a slight increase of 0.62% [1] - Jianglong Shipbuilding (300589) closed at 13.13, up 0.54% [1] - Yaxing Anchor Chain (601890) closed at 9.52, up 0.42% [1] - Guorui Technology (300600) closed at 16.22, down 0.31% [1] - China Marine Defense (600764) closed at 30.21, down 0.56% [1] - Zhongchuan Defense (600685) closed at 26.74, down 2.05% [1] - China Shipbuilding (600150) closed at 37.04, down 3.82% with a significant trading volume of 1,449,700 shares and a transaction value of 5.41 billion yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The marine equipment sector saw a net outflow of 1.063 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 932 million yuan [1] - The detailed fund flow for individual stocks indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among different companies, with Zhongke Haixun experiencing a net inflow of 31.29 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Other stocks like Tianhai Defense and Guorui Technology faced net outflows from institutional investors, while retail investors showed positive net inflows for several stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing pressure on stock prices in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decline in market volume and prices, despite strong earnings performance from shipbuilding companies [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Holdings - In the first half of 2025, the shipbuilding sector's stock prices underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable year-on-year decline in fund holdings for major shipbuilding companies [2]. - Specifically, the fund holding ratio for China Shipbuilding decreased by 3.8 percentage points and 4.9 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively, although there was a significant increase in Q2 compared to Q1, indicating renewed institutional interest [2]. Group 2: Earnings Performance - Shipbuilding companies reported impressive earnings growth, with profits increasing significantly more than revenues, driven by high-priced orders from around 2022 entering a delivery phase and a decrease in steel costs compared to 2021 [3]. - Key subsidiaries of China Shipbuilding, such as Waigaoqiao and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, have shown continuous growth in net profit margins and return on equity (ROE) over multiple reporting periods [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The shipbuilding market is facing a downturn, with new orders and new ship prices under significant downward pressure, as the shipping market has experienced a notable decline in freight rates, with major ship types seeing average price drops exceeding 20% year-on-year [4]. - Global new ship orders fell to 1.67 million CGT in May 2025, marking the lowest monthly level in nearly four years, and the Clarkson Global Newbuilding Price Index decreased from 189.96 in September 2024 to 186.69 in May 2025 [4]. - The decline in the domestic shipbuilding market is attributed to the impact of the U.S. Section 301 sanctions and a lower willingness of leading domestic shipyards to accept new orders [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The order capacity ratios for bulk carriers and oil tankers are currently low at 10.4% and 15%, respectively, indicating that the shipbuilding cycle has not yet reached its peak [5]. - BIMCO estimates that the potential number of ship demolitions over the next decade will reach 16,000 vessels, totaling 700 million deadweight tons (DWT), which is significantly higher than previous estimates [5]. - Despite short-term order pressures, the low order capacity ratios for mainstream ship types, particularly bulk carriers and medium to large oil tankers, suggest potential for future market recovery, especially with the anticipated impact of U.S. interest rate cuts on supply-demand dynamics [6]. Group 5: Recommendations - The shipbuilding sector is recommended for continued investment, with strong endorsements for companies such as China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) and China Power (600482.SH), along with suggestions to monitor China Shipbuilding Defense (600685.SH), CIMC (000039.SZ), Yaxing Anchor Chain (601890.SH), and Runbang Co., Ltd. (002483.SZ) [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The military industry is showing signs of a fundamental turning point, with the upstream military electronics sector being the first to benefit from the recovery [1][4]. - In the first half of 2025, the military industry saw a total revenue of CNY 254.55 billion, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.1% to CNY 15.53 billion [3][9]. - The overall gross margin for the military industry was 18.7%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous year, while the net margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 6.3% [13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aerospace Equipment Sector - The aerospace equipment sector reported a revenue of CNY 108.09 billion, down 7.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 7.29 billion, a decline of 20.1% [17][18]. - The revenue drop was primarily due to significant declines in two major manufacturers, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and Aero Engine Corporation of China, as they shifted focus to future orders [17]. Space Equipment Sector - The space equipment sector's revenue was CNY 9.22 billion, down 15.3% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 49.5% to CNY 356 million [23][24]. - The sector experienced a reduction in revenue decline compared to the previous year, indicating some stabilization [23]. Ground Armament Sector - The ground armament sector achieved a revenue of CNY 12.73 billion, a growth of 26.6% year-on-year, with a slight net profit decrease of 2.2% to CNY 444 million [25][26]. - Notable growth was seen in companies like North Navigation, which reported a revenue increase of 481.2% [25]. Marine Equipment Sector - The marine equipment sector generated CNY 55.75 billion in revenue, a 12.6% increase, with net profit soaring by 107.9% to CNY 3.74 billion [27][28]. - The growth was driven by leading shipbuilding companies benefiting from a high international ship market [28]. Military Electronics Sector - The military electronics sector reported a revenue of CNY 68.76 billion, a significant increase of 51.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 3.70 billion, up 2.2% [3][4]. - This sector was the first to benefit from the overall industry recovery, reflecting a strong demand for components [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific sub-sectors for investment opportunities, including the aircraft and aero-engine supply chain, missile and unmanned combat systems, and military trade-related companies [4]. - Recommended ETFs include the Fortune CSI Military Leaders ETF and the Guotai CSI Military ETF [4].

Group 1 - The domestic aircraft carrier concept sector declined by 1.29%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major declines seen in companies like China Satellite, Jin Xin Nuo, and Bo Wei Alloy [1][2] - Among the domestic aircraft carrier concept stocks, six stocks experienced price increases, with China Shipbuilding, China Ship Defense, and China Power rising by 1.29%, 0.81%, and 0.50% respectively [1][2] - The domestic aircraft carrier concept sector saw a net outflow of 1.167 billion yuan from main funds, with 28 stocks experiencing net outflows, and eight stocks seeing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top net outflow stock was China Satellite, with a net outflow of 217 million yuan, followed by Jin Xin Nuo, Taihao Technology, and Hailanxin with net outflows of 171 million yuan, 141 million yuan, and 137 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included China Shipbuilding, Zhongzhong Co., and China Ship Defense, with net inflows of 85.33 million yuan, 0.968 million yuan, and 0.955 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The domestic aircraft carrier concept sector had several stocks with significant declines, including China Satellite at -4.19%, Jin Xin Nuo at -3.78%, and Taihao Technology at -3.00% [2][3]

Group 1 - The shipbuilding sector experienced weak stock performance in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decline in both volume and price in the ship market, despite strong earnings from shipbuilding stocks as prior orders were fulfilled [1][5][12] - The performance of shipbuilding stocks was significantly better than revenue growth, with profits increasing substantially due to high-priced orders from 2022 entering a delivery phase and a decrease in steel costs compared to 2021 [14][15] - The overall market sentiment for the shipbuilding industry was poor, with new orders and new ship prices under significant downward pressure, influenced by low freight rates and the impact of the US 301 Act on Chinese shipbuilding [19][31] Group 2 - The shipbuilding industry is expected to benefit from a future recovery in demand for bulk carriers and oil tankers, as their order-to-capacity ratios are currently low, indicating potential for growth [46][49] - As of June 2025, the order-to-capacity ratios for bulk carriers and oil tankers were only 10.4% and 15% respectively, significantly lower than the 39.4% for container ships, suggesting that the current downturn is a temporary pause in an upward cycle [46][47] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipbuilding sector, recommending investments in companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, while suggesting attention to companies involved in shipbuilding and related equipment [1][5][46] Group 3 - The first half of 2025 saw a notable decline in fund holdings in the shipbuilding sector, with significant year-on-year decreases in holdings for major companies, although there was a quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, indicating renewed institutional interest [11][12] - The earnings of major shipbuilding companies showed remarkable growth, with China Shipbuilding reporting a revenue of 40.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.95 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% and 109% respectively [15][17] - The global new ship order volume fell to 1.67 million CGT in May 2025, marking the lowest level in four years, with a significant year-on-year decline across various ship types, particularly LNG and oil tankers [31][34]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Defense, a listed company under China Shipbuilding Group, is positioned to benefit from a tightening supply-demand balance in the shipbuilding industry, with significant growth in production planned for 2028, driven by strong replacement demand and favorable market conditions [1][2]. Industry Summary - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a persistent supply-demand tightness, with replacement of old ships as a core demand driver. The current replacement progress is just over half, and new environmental policies are expected to extend the replacement cycle [1]. - The global active shipyard count has significantly decreased since the last cycle, with current capacity at only 74% of the previous peak. Even if capacity recovers to 85% by 2030, it will still be insufficient to meet future delivery demands, supporting high ship prices [1]. - Recent changes in the Chinese shipbuilding market have shifted from a pessimistic outlook, with a notable decline in transaction volumes and ship prices earlier in the year due to investigations by the U.S. Trade Representative's Office. However, following the release of revised policies, new orders for Chinese shipyards have rebounded, indicating a potential recovery in order volumes and ship prices [1]. Company Summary - China Shipbuilding Defense's core business is shipbuilding, which accounted for 92% of its revenue in the first half of 2025. The company is expected to see significant production increases in 2028, with Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Shipyard International projected to have production increases of 58% and 34%, respectively, in CGT terms [2]. - The company benefits from a favorable cost structure, as many current orders were signed during a price upcycle in 2021, while steel procurement costs are declining. This creates a positive margin environment for the company [2]. - China Shipbuilding Group is actively addressing competition issues within the industry, with a commitment to resolve competition between Huangpu Wenchong and China Shipbuilding within five years, which is a key development to monitor [2]. - The company has been rated "Buy" due to its expected performance in the global shipbuilding cycle and capacity release, with projected net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 11, and 7 times [2].

Market Overview - On September 12, the marine equipment sector rose by 0.36% compared to the previous trading day, with China Marine Defense leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the marine equipment sector showed varied performance, with China Marine Defense (600764) closing at 30.91, up 1.81% on a trading volume of 76,500 shares and a transaction value of 236 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Zhongzuo Haixun (300810) at 45.03, up 1.76% [1] - Meisanxin (300065) at 19.36, up 1.68% [1] - China Shipbuilding (600150) at 38.07, up 0.37% [1] - Conversely, stocks like Jianglong Shipbuilding (300589) and XD Yasheng Anchor (601890) experienced slight declines [1] Capital Flow - The marine equipment sector saw a net outflow of 179 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 171 million yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for key stocks included: - China Marine Defense with a net inflow of 32.34 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - Jianglong Shipbuilding with a net outflow of 6.86 million yuan from institutional investors [2] - XD Yasheng Anchor with a significant net outflow of 30.47 million yuan from institutional investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shenyin Wanguo has initiated coverage on China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) with a "Buy" rating, benefiting from the global shipbuilding cycle and its own capacity release, projecting net profits of 1.1 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PEs of 18 [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a persistent supply-demand tension, with the core theme being the replacement of old ships, and the replacement demand is ample as the full ship type replacement progress is just over half [1] - On the demand side, the impact of new environmental policies is expected to extend the replacement cycle [1] - On the supply side, the number of active shipyards globally has significantly decreased since the last cycle, with current capacity only at a fraction of the previous peak [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment Changes - Since the beginning of the year, pessimistic factors suppressing the Chinese shipbuilding market have changed, as the U.S. Trade Representative's office has launched investigations into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, leading to a decline in transaction volume and ship prices [1] - The shipowners' wait-and-see sentiment has been strong, resulting in a significant drop in market transaction volume [1] Group 3: Future Production and Performance - The company is expected to see a substantial increase in production in 2028 compared to 2027, with Clarkson data indicating a 58% and 34% increase in CGT terms for Huangpu Wenchong and Guangzhou Shipyard International, respectively [1] - In monetary terms, the production for these two shipyards is projected to increase by 61% and 41% in 2028 compared to 2027 [1] - Current delivery orders are mostly signed at ship prices from 2021, indicating potential for future profitability [1] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The company is focused on addressing issues of competition within the industry, with China Shipbuilding Group having committed to resolving competition issues between Huangpu Wenchong and China Shipbuilding within five years, making future progress worth monitoring [1]