报告导读： 稳定币对美债的新增需求有望缓解短期债务，但对长期债务的影响不大。此 外，稳定币自身的"影子银行"属性及潜在风险不容忽视。 稳定币的本质与市场格局：数字锚定、规模激增与寡头格局。 稳定币作为数字金融基础设施的重要组成部 分，其核心功能是通过锚定法定货币、商品或其他资产，实现加密货币价格的稳定性。 2025 年以来，全 球稳定币市值已突破 2400 亿美元，链上交易量持续攀升，稳定币在加密交易、跨境支付、 DeFi 等场景 中的渗透率显著提升，成为数字经济体系中的"链上美元"和流动性枢纽。当前，全球稳定币市场呈现出高 度集中的寡头格局，以泰达币（ USDT ）和美元稳定币（ USDC ）为主。 稳定币相关政策：美国 GENIUS 法案和中国香港《稳定币条例》促进市场发展。 2025 年 5 月，美国参 议院通过 GENIUS 法案，标志着美国首次在联邦层面确立系统性稳定币监管框架。 Tether 和 Circle 两 大机构成为美国国债重要的新买家。 2025 年一季度， Tether 持有的美国国债规模已突破 1200 亿美 元，占其总储备的 66% — 81.5%； Circle 的 USDC 储 ...

Core Insights - The main differences between the Shanghai and Shenzhen credit bond indices lie in duration, constituent bonds, and issuer concentration [1][2][4] - The total scale of credit bond ETFs has significantly increased, with a net growth of 95.4% since Q2, reaching a total scale of 304.2 billion yuan [1][4] Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Overview - The total number of bond ETFs in China has reached 29, with credit bond ETFs accounting for 11 of them, totaling 156.5 billion yuan, which is 51.45% of the total bond ETF scale [1][2] - The scale of credit bond ETFs has increased by 764 billion yuan since Q2, with individual ETFs showing growth rates between 104% and 201% [1][4] Group 2: Comparison of Shanghai and Shenzhen Indices - The Shanghai credit bond index consists of 212 constituent bonds with a total scale of 587.7 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen index has 220 bonds totaling 364 billion yuan [2][3] - The weighted duration of the Shanghai index is 4.11 years, compared to 3.05 years for the Shenzhen index, indicating a longer duration for the Shanghai index [2][4] Group 3: Growth of Constituent Bonds - The number of constituent bonds in the Shanghai index has increased by 44 since the end of 2024, while the Shenzhen index has seen an increase of 102 [3] - The total scale of constituent bonds in the Shanghai index has grown by 92.5 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen index has increased by 101.7 billion yuan [3]

投资建议： 新消费与价值成长并行，大众品首选成长，重视换季消费机会，白酒绝对价值显现。 报告导读： 新消费与价值成长并行，把握换季机会，估值提升。白酒短期受政策影响，长 期绝对价值凸显。大众品啤酒饮料旺季催化，大单品新渠道成长性凸出。 新消费与价值成长并行，标的分化和估值提升。 一方面， 新渠道和新品类创新驱动新消费结构性红利， 主要体现在零食、保健品、食品添加剂赛道；另一方面，传统食品饮料龙头依赖强大的产品创新能力、渠 道拓展能力实现大单品的稳健强劲增长，主要体现在啤酒、饮料赛道。我们预计新消费与价值成长并行， 龙头间或将逐步出现分化，新消费标的估值有望创新高，传统消费估值或将提升。 白酒：短期受政策影响，长期绝对价值凸显。 近期中共中央、国务院印发修订后的《党政机关厉行节约反 对浪费条例》，其中涉及用酒部分我们认为属于纪律的再度强调，我们预计白酒行业龙头或将持续挖掘新 场景和潜在增量，加速白酒商品属性重塑和消费结构转型。对于白酒板块，我们延续前期观点，行业 2025Q2 产业景气度环比角度仍在寻底，价格端压力大于量的压力，大部分企业短期业绩表现愈发依赖于 核心市场的市占率提升，且愈发依赖于腰部及以下单品驱 ...

行至6月，年已将半，各券商紧锣密鼓举办2025年中期策略会。 目前，中信证券、国泰海通、华泰证券等大型券商的中期策略会已结束，对各产业的中期展望报告也相继发 布。 就证券行业而言，券商中国记者注意到，得益于一揽子金融政策的推出和落实，非银分析师们均认为，行业将 迎来更加广阔的展业空间。不过，随着行业格局持续优化，转型已成为各家券商发展命题。 华泰证券非银分析师沈娟团队表示，当前行业正处于资产负债表扩张的战略窗口期，但内外环境复杂性加剧， 对券商资产配置能力提出更高要求，投资业务或是全年业绩的胜负手。 有分析师预测上半年证券业净利润增幅超30% 2024年，证券行业实现反转，净利润重回正增长。2025年第一季度，涨势延续，42家上市券商归母净利润同比 增幅超50%。今年以来，降息等政策利好改善市场流动性环境，资本市场活跃度持续保持，在此背景下，多位 非银分析师也对证券行业2025年业绩前瞻给出比较乐观的预期。 增配高股息成自营发展共识 在机遇之外，分析师也指出了当前证券行业存在的挑战。国泰海通非银分析师刘欣琦认为，第一季度证券行业 虽然取得高速增长，但经营显著分化。他认为，分化与转型已然是券商行业重要命题。 沈 ...

编者按： 十载春华秋实，鉴往知来；十年星河璀璨，与光同行。自破茧初啼至引领风潮，"金长江"评选始终以专业 为炬、以公正为尺，丈量中国私募基金行业的奔腾浪潮。值此华章再启之际，证券时报·券商中国倾情推 出"金长江十年之共建私募生态圈"，盘点十年来证券公司、信托公司等机构在共建中国私募基金生态圈过 程中的不凡力量。此间星霜，既见群峰竞秀，亦显大江奔流。 在很多投资者眼中，基金托管通常只意味着购买基金时费率明细中的一行小字。但实际上，托管人承担着资产 保管、资金结算、估值核算、投资监督等重要职责，成为防范行业风险，保护投资者利益的重要防线，在私募 行业更是如此。 从2013年的初登舞台，到如今的万亿市场，券商私募托管业务以蓬勃之势闯入赛局，凭借强大的综合服务体系 打破商业银行的先发优势，如今更是伴着"扶优限劣"行业浪潮，以更加专业化市场化的服务，助推行业生态步 入行稳致远的正向循环。 从草莽到高质量发展 "券商私募托管业务的发展，与私募法规体系的更新完善密切相关。"招商证券告诉证券时报·券商中国记者。 作为首批获得托管业务资质的券商，招商证券已连续11年保持基金托管产品数量第一，开创了券商私募托管业 务诸多先河。在 ...

Group 1: Investment Opinions on Innovation Drugs - Rongtong Fund's Wan Minyuan expressed skepticism about the innovation drug sector, claiming that most data pertains to 3-5 years in the future and that many companies are still in early clinical stages or preclinical, suggesting a significant bubble compared to previous CXO bubbles [1] - In contrast, a well-known private equity figure, "Chen Yingzhang," argued that the current wave of innovation drugs represents a historic reversal, with potential for leading companies to create world-class drugs and generate substantial wealth [1] Group 2: Mid-Year Strategy Meetings by Securities Firms - Major securities firms, including Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan, held mid-year strategy meetings, indicating a positive outlook for the A-share market in the second half of the year, with a consensus on the technology sector being favored [2][3] - Analysts from Huatai Securities noted that the valuation repair of Chinese assets is ongoing, with expectations that the A-share market will outperform overseas markets [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Opportunities - Guotai Junan's strategy chief highlighted a clearer "transformation bull" market in China, driven by policies aimed at debt resolution, demand stimulation, and asset price stabilization [3] - Investment opportunities identified include financial and high-dividend stocks, emerging technology sectors, and cyclical consumer goods, with a focus on companies with strong dividends and monopolistic advantages [4] Group 4: Company Developments and Financing - Shanghai Jiaqi, a quantitative private equity firm, underwent a change in actual control, with the new controller increasing their stake from 20% to 56%, indicating a strategic shift within the company [5] - Guoao Technology announced the completion of several million yuan in Series A financing, aimed at expanding production capacity and accelerating product development in high-end semiconductor and robotics sectors [5][6] - Shengwei Technology, a virtual machine developer, secured nearly 100 million yuan in funding to enhance its technology and market presence, contributing to the development of the domestic operating system ecosystem [7] Group 5: Strategic Partnerships and Initiatives - Renhe Pharmaceutical established a comprehensive strategic partnership with Western Securities, focusing on capital and industry collaboration to explore high-quality development paths [9] - China Merchants Securities launched the first ESG public financial laboratory and a public investment advisory fund, committing over 50% of advisory fees to charitable causes [10]

报告导读： 面对类似中美关税博弈等较难预测的重大事件，关键在于监测量价指标反映的 市场预期与机构动向，灵活调整策略，把握风险收益平衡。 一般而言，对于类似中美关税博弈的重大事件，准确预测其结果往往是较为困难的，这种情况下更为重要 的是考虑市场预期与风险收益比，做出最合适的应对，这一应对可以是提前入场，也可以是减仓防守。 因 此，我们可以通过观测国债期货技术指标捕捉市场对政策结果的预判，把握机构投资者对风险与收益的再 平衡逻辑。复盘来看，在 4 月 3 日与 5 月 12 日两个关键节点前均及时发出信号的量价因子包括 KUP1 、 5cors 、 HIGH0 以及 KSFT2 。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 阶段 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index futures contract closed at 2506 on June 6, 2025, with a slight decrease of 0.09%. The trading volume was 24,000 contracts, and the top 20 positions showed a net short position with a difference of 5,381 contracts [1]. Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all contracts was 34,900 contracts, a decrease of 3,198 contracts from the previous day [1]. - The top 20 positions had a total long position of 49,400 contracts, down by 2,681 contracts, and a total short position of 61,100 contracts, down by 2,835 contracts [1]. Major Players in Long and Short Positions - The top three long positions were held by Guotai Junan with 8,066 contracts, CITIC Futures with 7,040 contracts, and Dongzheng Futures with 3,716 contracts [1]. - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan with 9,729 contracts, CITIC Futures with 9,393 contracts, and GF Futures with 8,182 contracts [1]. Changes in Long Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from Everbright Futures with 1,163 contracts (up by 251), Guotai Junan with 5,911 contracts (down by 1,357), and GF Futures with 1,544 contracts (up by 115) [1][3]. - The top three decreases in long positions were from Guotai Junan, CITIC Futures, and Guoxin Futures [1]. Changes in Short Positions - The top three increases in short positions were from Haitong Futures with 3,435 contracts (up by 295), Huawen Futures with 467 contracts (up by 204), and Guotai Junan with 7,322 contracts (down by 1,309) [1][3]. - The top three decreases in short positions were from Guotai Junan, GF Futures, and Guoxin Futures [1].

n's Claud AHIN 1796.78亿市值 2060.58亿市值 2.90亿成交额 7.76亿成交额 7.18 22.37 +0.01(+0.14%) +0.26(+1.18%) @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 保险 中国太保 队 中国人保 中国平安 ■ 3666.17亿市值 3365.20亿市值 9726.09亿市值 6.80亿成交额 21.91亿成交额 5.93亿成交额 34.98 8.29 53.41 -0.27(-0.77%) -0.58(-1.07%) -0.09(-1.07%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18923.24亿市值 2215.58亿市值 4855.50亿市值 37.78亿成交额 14.89亿成交额 9.72亿成交额 1506.39 125.09 181.61 -1.27(-0.69%) +0.06(+0.05%) -7.61(-0.50%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2299.57亿市值 2546.49亿市值 3164.12亿市值 -成交额 9.92亿成交额 25.15亿成交额 430.49 610.00 136.13 ...

持仓分布的偏离与策略差异将使得债券 ETF 业绩出现阶段性分化。 即便是同一跟踪指数下的不同产品， 也会呈现出一定程度的分化。其核心在于，大部分债券指数基金面临底层资产流动性制约，因而多采用抽 样复制法，并具备一定的主动管理特征。一方面为了应对流动性监管所致的现金拖累，指数基金可能会在 特定的市场环境下选择一定程度上（久期 / 评级）的主动偏离或是可能基金本身也存在一些 Smart Beta 策略的加持，另一方面，由于某些特定的优质属性使得部分个券存在一定的稀缺性，无法有效购得也会使 指数基金发生对于指数的被动偏离。考虑到在纳入质押库后需满足担保品的持续管理，在评级上选择大幅 偏离的空间有限，因此未来的差异将更多体现在久期与期限摆布及相关策略的应用上。 报告导读： 通用质押式回购的准入有望拉平信用债 ETF 与底仓资产在回购功能性上的差 异，更低的预期折算率波动水平有望降低正回购方的欠库风险与实际综合融资成本，使得 投资者进一步增厚收益。 首批 9 只基金已获同意函，信用债 ETF 开展通用质押式回购即将落地。 截至 2025 年 5 月末，包括平 安、大成、博时、广发、天弘、南方、易方达、海富通、华夏等 9 ...