股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 国泰海通证券认为，龙头旅游企业受益于政策支持，随着职工文体消费的增长，预计这些企业将在短期 内受益于政策推动，长期则有望实现业绩的持续增长。特别是在景区年票，文旅消费券等优惠措施的推 动下，相关行业的消费需求将进一步释放，带来潜在的增长机会。另外，近期全国总工会等部门联合印 发《关于深入推进新时代职工文体工作高质量发展扩大职工文体消费的意见》，中信证券认为，政策有 望在2026年为国内旅游市场带来500亿-1650亿元的年度增量，对行业增长带动可观。 国务院办公厅日前印发《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》，其中提到：旅居服务。培育一批旅居 目的地城市(区域)。鼓励有条件的地方发挥相关财政资金，产业基金引导作用，完善旅居目的地基础设 施，推动存量设施提升改造。依法盘活用好农村闲置土地和房屋。鼓励地方结合消化存量房地产（核心 股）等政策落实，支持旅居项目用地和服务设施建设。 责任编辑：栎树 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to show significant growth, with all 16 firms that have disclosed their earnings forecasts reporting positive results, driven by a recovery in the capital market and increased business activities in wealth management, asset management, and investment trading [1][5]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Zhongtai Securities expects a net profit of 1.312 billion to 1.5 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 40% to 60% year-on-year, attributed to a rebound in market activity and growth in various business segments [2]. - Huazhong Securities reported a total revenue of 5.064 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.94%, with a net profit of 2.104 billion yuan, up 41.64%, due to enhanced core business efforts and market opportunities [3]. - Guosheng Securities anticipates a net profit of 210 million to 280 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.44% to 67.25%, driven by increased revenues in brokerage, investment banking, and futures brokerage [4]. - Founder Securities forecasts a net profit of 3.86 billion to 4.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 75% to 85%, primarily due to growth in wealth management and subsidiary business revenues [4]. Group 2: Major Firms' Performance - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 38.46%, maintaining steady growth despite a high base [6]. - Guotai Junan is expected to achieve a net profit of 27.533 billion to 28.006 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 111% to 115%, attributed to brand advantages and improved service systems post-merger [6]. - China Merchants Securities reported a net profit of 12.3 billion yuan, ranking third among the firms [7]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The securities industry is entering a golden period of dual recovery in valuation and performance, supported by a significant rebound in the capital market, with total trading volume exceeding 413.78 trillion yuan in 2025 [11]. - Analysts highlight three main pillars driving growth: resilience in traditional businesses, recovery in investment banking, and the transformation towards internationalization and wealth management [11]. - The current allocation of active funds in the non-bank sector remains significantly low, indicating potential for increased investment in the securities sector as market conditions improve [12].

正值A股年报预告披露期，一批上市券商密集"交卷"报喜。 同花顺iFinD数据显示，截至1月29日19时，A股已有17家上市券商披露2025年度业绩预告或快报，平均 净利润为58.52亿元，同比增幅高达92.92%，业绩集体实现高增。 其中，4家净利润同比增长10%—50%，10家净利润同比增长50%—100%，3家净利润同比增长超过 100%。 卖方研究机构普遍认为，作为A股"绩优生"的券商股，已具备一定战略配置价值，板块估值具备较大的 修复空间。 百亿俱乐部"多点开花" 截至发稿，有4家头部券商业绩已披露，包括中信证券、国泰海通、申万宏源、招商证券，净利润均有 望突破百亿。 从业绩预告透露的经营脉络来看，头部券商2025年业绩改善并非依赖单一市场行情的点状反弹，而是在 自营、财富管理、投资银行等方面展现韧性，各大业务条线收入同比实现较快增长。在市场结构性机会 持续增多的背景下，相关业务对整体利润形成了均衡支撑。 比如，2025年申万宏源预计实现净利润101亿元至111亿元，同比增长61.59%至77.59%。其中，申万宏 源全资子公司申万宏源证券预计全年实现归母净利润99亿元至109亿元，同比增长60.29 ...

Core Insights - The bond ETF market is expected to experience significant growth in both scale and trading volume by the end of 2025, with total market size reaching 829 billion yuan, an increase of over 655 billion yuan from 2024, representing a 377% year-on-year growth [1] - The average weekly trading volume of bond ETFs is projected to exceed 150 billion yuan, marking a 311% increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - By the end of 2025, the sizes of credit bond ETFs, interest rate bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs are expected to be 615.2 billion yuan, 152.8 billion yuan, and 61 billion yuan respectively [1] - The pricing dynamics of various bond ETFs show that government bond ETFs are mostly at a premium, while local government bond ETFs are generally at a discount, and credit bond ETFs have shifted from premium to discount [1] - The introduction of benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs has led to increased demand, pushing secondary market prices higher, but a bearish bond market and the launch of sci-tech bond ETFs have caused a shift to discount territory [1] Group 2: Redemption Trends - The redemption patterns of interest rate bond ETFs exhibit a "government bond vs. policy financial bond seesaw" effect, with government bond ETFs and policy financial bond ETFs showing negative correlation in monthly net subscriptions [2] - The launch of sci-tech bond ETFs has rapidly diverted funds from benchmark market-making ETFs, leading to a significant reduction in subscription activity for the latter [2] - Convertible bond ETFs experienced net outflows for most months in 2025, with a shift to net subscriptions during periods of heightened equity sentiment in July and August [2] Group 3: Performance Outlook - The overall performance of interest rate bond ETFs in 2025 is expected to be poor, with maximum drawdowns larger than in 2024, and short-duration products outperforming long-duration ones [2] - The annualized returns of three existing credit bond ETF products are expected to decline, but the drop is smaller compared to interest rate bond ETFs [2] - The first batch of sci-tech bond ETFs is expected to have an optimal annualized return of 0.75% and a Calmar ratio of 1.24, while the second batch is projected to achieve an annualized return of 1.82% and a Calmar ratio of 8.02 [2] Group 4: Future Strategies - In 2026, the introduction of multi-asset ETFs is anticipated, with a focus on maintaining a constant stock-bond ratio, primarily with over 70% in bonds [3] - The performance of bond ETFs is likely to align with the overall bond market, with increasing congestion in sci-tech bonds and a preference for short-duration products [3] - A shift towards more diversified trading strategies is expected, including internal rotation within bond ETFs and arbitrage opportunities between credit ETFs and individual bonds [3]

Group 1 - The meeting on January 26 highlighted the collaboration between Jining Elderly University and Rizhao Bank, focusing on cultural empowerment in elderly finance [1][3] - The partnership has successfully organized various activities, including the first community elderly talent competition and a series of volunteer services, totaling 166 events with over 60,800 elderly participants, enhancing social influence and reputation [3] - A cooperation intention was established with the Confucius Academy to leverage Jining's traditional cultural advantages and create a cultural elderly care brand with local characteristics [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, both parties aim to continue fulfilling social responsibilities and serving the community, aligning with Jining's strategic goals of becoming a strong industrial city and a cultural tourism hub [3] - There is a focus on developing AI-assisted elderly care scenarios, transforming advanced technology into accessible daily life for the elderly [3] - The initiative includes enhancing telecommunications and financial fraud prevention education to help the elderly identify scams and improve their protective capabilities [3]

短期来看，宽松交易仍在延续，权益与金属市场受益。 我们认为： 1 ）无论哪位候选人上任，短期美联储货币政策或将延续宽松，弱美元概率较大，但需注 意潜在的缩表政策力度与传导。 2 ）贵金属方面，弱美元与实际利率下降将支撑黄金的货币与金融属性需求，而若哈塞特当选可能引发政策稳定性担忧，第 三重利好因素或推动黄金等贵金属避险资产进一步上行。 3 ）宽松交易环境下，整体利好全球权益市场。对中国权益市场而言，随着经济转型加快、无风险 收益下沉与资本市场改革，"转型牛"的升势远未结束。 【策略】 美联储换帅前瞻：历史复盘与影响展望 全 球资本市场相关性显著提升。 2024 年 9 月美联储启动降息周期以来，中、欧等主要经济体同步推进，全球流动性宽松格局形成。我们认为这一现象本质 是全球化债，核心逻辑正是通过债务置换逐步降低资金成本，缓解政府债务的利息偿付压力。对于全球市场而言： 1 ）权益市场同步走强，纳斯达克 100 、 日经 225 等发达市场指数涨幅居前，上证指数、胡志明指数等新兴市场指数亦表现亮眼，且上行斜率的拐点几乎同步出现； 2 ）贵金属及工业金属价格同步 上涨，金融属性领先实物需求属性扩张。商品市场与权益市 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 东吴证券研报指出，国泰海通预计2025年实现归母净利润275-280亿元，同比增长111%-115%；第 四季度实现扣非净利润48-52亿元，环比下滑42-47%。2025年利润增长主要来自于经纪、投行及自营业 务。国泰君安与海通证券于2025年一季度并表，初步实现"1+1>2"的效果。公司资产规模及经营业绩创 历史新高，财富管理、机构与交易等业务收入同比显著增长。此外因公司吸收合并海通证券所产生的负 商誉计入营业外收入。市场延续活跃，小幅调整此前盈利预测，预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别 为277/282/304亿元（前值为303/277/299亿元），对应PB为1.11/1.04/0.98倍。公司合并后各项指标均稳 居行业前列，资产规模排名行业第一，有望持续受益于资本市场改革。当前公司估值低于行业平均水 平，维持"买入"评级。 （责任编辑：贺翀 ...

公司发布Living OS系统，将安全、舒适、绿色与智慧理念系统化嵌入设计、建造与运维全周期，并通 过示范项目实现落地验证。随着改善型需求占比提升，具备完整产品体系与科技导入能力的房企有望在 新一轮格局重塑中形成差异化优势，公司产品力有望持续转化为销售韧性与定价能力。 商业运营构成第二增长曲线，REITs打通资本循环提升价值弹性 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持中国海外发展(00688)"增持"评级。作为行业龙头， 在新货业绩逐步释放、好房子产品力引领及商业REITs打通资本循环的共同推动下，公司价值有望迎来 系统性重估。给予公司2025-2027年EPS为1.18/1.19/1.32元，参考可比公司，充分考虑公司资产质量、业 务发展空间、战略规划等，给予公司2026年PB 0.5X，目标价20.3港元。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 新旧项目切换推进，优质新增投资有望驱动业绩修复 随着公司历史库存项目逐步去化、结转压力释放，住宅开发业务正进入新旧项目切换阶段。2025年以来 公司逆周期加大投资力度，新增项目高度集中于一线及强二线城市核心优质地块，项目质量显著提升。 在此背景下，新项目利润贡献有 ...

| | | 21家券商2025业绩一览(2026.1.27) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商 | 净利(亿元) | 同比 | 营收(亿元) | 同比 | | 中信证券 | 300. 51 | 38. 46% | 748. 30 | 38. 46% | | 国泰海通 | 275. 33 280. 06 | 111% 115% | | | | 招商证券 | 123.00 | 18. 43% | 248. 99 | 19. 19% | | 申万宏源 | 91~101 | 74. 64% 93. 83% | | | | 东方证券 | 56. 20 | 67. 80% | | | | 光大证券 | 37. 29 | 21.92% | 108. 63 | 13. 18% | | 国投证券 | 34. 18 | 35. 10% | 103. 51 | -4. 01% | | 国联民生 | 20. 08 | 406. 00% | | | | 中金财富 | 17. 60 | 47. 40% | 83. 49 | 25. 42% | | 东北证券 | 14. 77 | 69. ...

根据平安基金管理有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）与国泰海通证券股份有限公司签署的销售协议，本公 司自2026年1月28日起新增以上机构为以下产品的销售机构。 现将相关事项公告如下： 2、基金转换是指基金份额持有人按照《基金合同》和基金管理人届时有效公告规定的条件，申请将其 持有基金管理人管理的、某一基金的基金份额转为基金管理人管理的、且由同一注册登记机构办理注册 登记的其他基金的基金份额的行为。基金转换业务规则与转换业务的收费计算公式参见本公司网站的 《平安基金管理有限公司旗下开放式基金转换业务规则说明的公告》。 投资者欲了解基金产品的详细情况，请仔细阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书等法律文件。 四、投资者可通过以下途径咨询有关详情： 1、国泰海通证券股份有限公司 一、自2026年1月28日起，投资者可通过以上机构办理以下产品的开户、申购、赎回、定投、转换等业 务。 ■ 注:同一产品各份额之间不能相互转换。 二、费率优惠 投资者通过销售机构申购或定期定额申购、转换上述基金，享受费率优惠，优惠活动解释权归销售机构 所有，请投资者咨询销售机构。本公司对其申购费率、定期定额申购费率以及转换业务的申购补差费率 均不设折扣 ...