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国泰海通|策略:地缘政治局势博弈压制全球风险偏好——战术性资产配置周度点评(20251020)
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-10-22 11:04
Group 1 - The article emphasizes the tactical overweight view on A/H shares due to multiple supporting factors such as China's technological breakthroughs, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that enhance market risk appetite [1] - The article notes that the trade risk boundaries are clearer, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, making further U.S. tariffs less meaningful [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, anticipating a mild decline in actual interest rates due to the Fed's increasingly dovish monetary policy guidance [1] - The article highlights that the imbalance between credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market, despite previous adjustments [2] - The article expresses a positive outlook on gold, noting that it has surpassed key resistance levels and is supported by global geopolitical tensions and ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [2] Group 3 - The article asserts that the resilience of the Chinese economy and the decreasing risk of extreme geopolitical conflicts support the stability and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate [3] - It predicts that the RMB will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable appreciation trend amid a complex global macro environment [3]
券商中期红包雨来了!379亿券商ETF(512000)高频溢价,机构提示三季报强催化
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-10-22 02:41
10月22日,A股早盘低开,沪指在3900点上方窄幅整理,券商随市盘整,个股跌多涨少,中原证券、中 银证券、太平洋等5股逆市飘红,权重股方面,东方财富跌0.87%,中信证券、国泰海通跌0.65%、 0.53%。 顶流券商ETF(512000)场内价格现跌0.5%,盘中高频溢价,实时溢价率0.14%,对于规模300亿级的 ETF而言值得关注,显示买盘资金逢跌积极介入。 东海证券表示,券商板块在政策红利持续释放、市场交投活跃度攀升等多重共振下,行业基本面改善的 确定性持续增强,配置价值进一步凸显。 国泰海通证券表示,在政策、资金、业绩三大积极因素的推动下,券商板块正处于基本面持续改善与估 值低位徘徊的错配阶段。上市券商三季报业绩的高增长,将成为打破这一局面的关键。 截至最新,券商ETF(512000)跟踪的中证全指证券公司指数市净率PB为1.57倍,仅位于近10年45.6% 分位点的中低区间,估值性价比凸显。 券商ETF(512000)最新规模超379亿元,年内日均成交额超10亿元,为A股规模、流动性居前的顶流券 商ETF。 消息面,上市券商近期密集派发新一轮中期红包。10月21日,华鑫股份实施中期分红,合计分红 ...
券商新一轮中期红包来了,29家券商拟派现超180亿元;锦龙股份大宗交易成交超5200万元 | 券商基金早参
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-22 01:12
Group 1: Brokerage Firms' Mid-term Dividends - A new round of mid-term dividends is being distributed by brokerage firms, with 29 firms planning to distribute over 18 billion yuan [1] - Among these, CITIC Securities leads with a proposed dividend of 4.298 billion yuan, followed by Guotai Junan with 2.627 billion yuan [1] - The concentrated distribution of dividends reflects the industry's profitability resilience and may enhance investor return expectations, potentially boosting brokerage valuations [1] Group 2: Jindong Co., Ltd. Block Trade - Jindong Co., Ltd. executed a block trade of 3.89 million shares on October 21, with a transaction value of 52.0093 million yuan, at a discount of 2.98% compared to the closing price [2] - The transaction involved an institutional buyer, indicating a divergence in valuation perceptions among investors [2] - The cumulative block trade volume over the past three months reached 442 million yuan, suggesting increased shareholder selling intentions, which may exert short-term pressure on the stock price [2] Group 3: Fund Risk Level Adjustments - Multiple financial institutions have recently adjusted the risk levels of their fund products, with a significant number of funds experiencing upward adjustments [3] - The adjustments are primarily driven by increased volatility, greater maximum drawdown deviations, and declining fund sizes, particularly affecting bond funds [3] - This trend indicates a tightening of risk management in the industry, which may lead to a reevaluation of asset allocations by investors [3] Group 4: Insurance Asset Management Products Performance - Over 92% of insurance asset management products have achieved positive returns this year, with equity products showing an average return rate of 28% [4] - The focus of insurance funds is shifting towards long-term investments and increased research on listed companies, particularly in the tech sector [4] - The diversification of income sources through alternative investments is becoming a key strategy for insurance funds to enhance yield and stabilize net value fluctuations [4][5]
1.75亿股民活跃!9月炒股App流量激增,续创年内新高
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-10-21 13:35
Core Insights - The A-share market in September 2025 saw active trading, with stock trading apps experiencing significant user engagement, reaching a record high of 175 million monthly active users, marking a 0.74% month-on-month increase and a 9.73% year-on-year increase [1][6][4] User Engagement and Market Activity - The number of new accounts opened in the A-share market surged to 2.9372 million in September, a year-on-year increase of 60.73% and a month-on-month increase of 10.83%, making it the second-highest monthly figure of the year [5][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.64% in September, while the Shenzhen Component Index saw a significant increase of 6.54% [4] - The trading volume in September led to a notable increase in transaction stamp duty, which reached 314.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty alone amounting to 144.8 billion yuan, up 103.4% year-on-year [4][6] App Performance and Market Dynamics - The top three third-party securities apps, Tonghuashun, Dongfang Caifu, and Dazhihui, maintained a stronghold with over 10 million active users each, while the overall user growth for securities apps showed signs of slowing down [1][9][14] - The competitive landscape among securities apps is increasingly polarized, with larger firms gaining more traction compared to smaller ones, indicating a "Matthew Effect" in the industry [9][15] - The active user count for Tonghuashun reached 37.21 million, with a month-on-month increase of 1.31%, while Dongfang Caifu and Dazhihui had 18.23 million and 12.71 million active users, respectively [10][14] AI Integration in Securities Apps - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming a core focus for securities firms, enhancing operational models and service quality [17][18] - Several securities firms are launching AI-driven applications to improve user experience and engagement, with features tailored to younger demographics [18][17] - The shift towards AI is expected to create a comprehensive ecosystem that connects various services, including trading, wealth management, and customer support [17][18]
就在今天|国泰海通越南投资论坛
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-10-20 23:00
国泰海通I业务 | 政策和产业研究院 越南投资论 携手越南 · 逐浪远航 2025 年 10月 21日 13:30-17:30 上海 - 国泰海通外滩金融广场 C 栋 616 会议室 东南亚是中国周边外交的优先方向和高质量共建"一带一路"重点地区, 连续 5年与中国互为最大贸易伙伴,是中资企业走出去的重要区域。 越南作为东南亚最具潜力的经济体之一,是中国在东盟的第一大贸易国, 也是中资企业出海的重点方向。为搭建交流合作平台,探寻越南产业及投 资机遇,国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院拟于 10月 21日在上海举办"携 手越南 · 逐浪远航"为题的越南投资论坛,邀请金融、制造、消费、法律等 领域多位重磅嘉宾与会,共同探讨机遇,携手共向未来! 诚邀您的莅临! 主持人:李 俊 - 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院国别研究联席首席分析师 13:30 - 13:40 致苦辛 国泰海通证券政策和产业研究院领导 中国东盟经贸合作与出海东南亚 13:40 - 14:10 梁文洮 - 天裕丰咨询创始人、原商务部亚洲司副司长 黄金十年伊始 - 越南宏观经济与投资展望 14:10 - 14:40 黄 博 - 国泰君安(越南)总经理 机构客户 ...
国泰海通证券股份有限公司2025年半年度权益分派实施公告
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-10-20 19:26
Core Viewpoint - The company announced a cash dividend distribution of RMB 0.15 per share (before tax) for the first half of 2025, approved by the board and shareholders [1][3][5]. Distribution Plan - The distribution is for the first half of 2025 and applies to all A-share shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the close of trading on the registration date [2]. - A total of 115,303,000 A-shares held in the company's repurchase account will not participate in this profit distribution [2]. Differentiated Dividend Distribution - The cash dividend of RMB 0.15 per share (before tax) is based on the total share capital registered on the equity registration date, excluding shares held in the repurchase account [3][5]. - The actual number of shares participating in the distribution is 14,007,862,981 shares, calculated from the total A-share capital of 14,123,165,981 shares minus the repurchased shares [5]. Ex-Dividend Calculation - The ex-dividend reference price is calculated as: \[ \text{Ex-dividend reference price} = \left(\text{Previous closing price} - 0.15\right) \] This indicates that the stock price will be adjusted downwards by the dividend amount [4][5]. Implementation Method - The cash dividends will be distributed on October 28, 2025, to shareholders who have completed designated trading by the registration date of October 27, 2025 [7]. - Certain state-owned enterprises and restricted stock holders will receive dividends directly from the company [7]. Taxation Details - Individual shareholders holding shares for over one year will not be subject to personal income tax on the dividend, resulting in a net cash dividend of RMB 0.15 per share [7][8]. - For foreign institutional investors, a 10% withholding tax will apply, leading to a net cash dividend of RMB 0.135 per share [8][9].
芯碁微装:关于更换持续督导保荐代表人的公告
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-10-20 14:13
证券日报网讯 10月20日晚间,芯碁微装发布公告称,公司于近日收到国泰海通证券股份有限公司(简 称"国泰海通证券")出具的《关于更换合肥芯碁微电子装备股份有限公司持续督导保荐代表人的函》。 国泰海通证券作为公司2022年度向特定对象发行A股股票项目的保荐机构,原委派签字保荐代表人为林 剑辉先生、汤文宇先生,负责保荐工作及持续督导工作,持续督导期至2025年12月31日。由于林剑辉先 生工作变动,不再继续担任公司持续督导的保荐代表人,为保证公司持续督导工作的有序进行,国泰海 通证券现委派陈赛德先生接替林剑辉先生继续担任公司持续督导的保荐代表人,履行持续督导职责。 (文章来源:证券日报) ...
598.7亿元,券商争相发行科创债,超千亿仍在路上
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-20 14:11
Core Insights - The issuance of technology innovation bonds by securities firms has become increasingly active since the new policy was introduced in May [1][3] - As of now, six listed securities firms have announced approval to issue a total of 114.8 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds, with 43 firms having issued 59.87 billion yuan [2][3] Summary by Category Issuance Overview - The technology innovation bonds mainly include "technology innovation corporate bonds" issued on stock exchanges and "technology innovation bonds" issued in the interbank market, regulated by the CSRC and the central bank respectively [3] - Since the policy was introduced, six listed securities firms have received regulatory approval to issue a total of 114.8 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds over the next two years [3][4] Characteristics of Issuance - The issuance of technology innovation bonds shows three main characteristics: a wide range of issuers, a flexible term structure, and low interest rates [5][6] - The leading issuer is China Merchants Securities with a scale of 10 billion yuan, followed by CITIC Securities (9.7 billion yuan) and Guotai Junan Securities (5.9 billion yuan) [6][7] Term Structure and Interest Rates - The term structure of the issued bonds includes 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds, with nearly 50% being 3-year bonds [8] - The interest rates for the issued bonds range from 1.64% to 2.29%, primarily concentrated in the 1.7% to 2.0% range, which is lower than the average rate of 1.88% for ordinary corporate bonds issued this year [8] Market Participation - The funds raised from the issuance of technology innovation bonds are mainly used to support businesses in the technology innovation sector, with significant participation from mainstream investment institutions [8] - The recent listing of the second batch of technology innovation bond ETFs has attracted additional funds to some of the newly issued bonds [9]
598.7亿元!券商争相发行科创债,超千亿仍在路上
券商中国· 2025-10-20 13:17
自5月新政出台,券商正成为发行科技创新债券的活跃力量。 近日,中金公司公告称,获得证监会批复,向专业投资者公开发行面值总额不超过100亿元科技创新公司债券。这是中金公司年内第二次获批发行科创债。就在同 日,金融街证券成功发行首单科技创新次级债券,发行规模期限3年,票面利率2.39%,全场认购倍数为2.44倍。 截至目前,已有6家上市券商公告获批发行科创债额度合计1148亿元,有43家券商已发行598.7亿元科创债。 整体看,呈现头部券商规模高、中短期品种居多、票面 利率较低等特征。 年内券商已发行5 98 .7亿元科创债 | 公告时间 | 证券简称 | 获批规模 | 批复主体 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-17 | 中金公司 | 不超过100亿元 | 证监会 | | 2025-08-21 | 东方财富 | 不超过10亿元 | 证监会 | | 2025-06-25 | 华泰证券 | 不超过100亿元 | CU央行 | | 2025-06-19 | 圆泰海道 | 一不超过150亿元 | 证监会 | | 2025-06-17 1 | 中信建投 | 不超过60亿元 | 央 ...
起帆电缆:关于更换持续督导保荐代表人的公告


Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2025-10-20 13:12
Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Qifan Cable indicates a change in the designated sponsor representative for the ongoing supervision of the company's 2021 convertible bond issuance project, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements for fund management and usage [1] Group 1 - Qifan Cable received a letter from Guotai Junan Securities regarding the replacement of the continuous supervision sponsor representative [1] - Guotai Junan was the sponsor for Qifan Cable's 2021 public issuance of convertible bonds, with the original representatives being Wei Jianhan and Xu Liangting [1] - Due to the adjustment in Wei Jianhan's work responsibilities, Tu Yinqi has been appointed to take over the continuous supervision duties [1] Group 2 - The legal period for continuous supervision is until December 31, 2022, but Guotai Junan must continue its supervisory role until the raised funds are fully utilized [1] - The announcement highlights the importance of ongoing oversight in the management and usage of the raised funds from the convertible bond issuance [1]