炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 上证公告（基金）【2026】319号 特此公告。 上海证券交易所 2026年02月09日 为促进国泰上证科创板人工智能交易型开放式指数证券投资基金（以下简称科AI国泰，基金代 码:589110）的市场流动性和平稳运行，根据《上海证券交易所基金自律监管规则适用指引第2号——上 市基金做市业务》等相关规定，本所同意国泰海通证券股份有限公司自2026年02月10日起为科AI国泰 提供主做市服务。 ...

上海证券交易所 上证公告（基金）【2026】320号 为促进上证180金融交易型开放式指数证券投资基金（以下简称金融ETF，基金代码:510230）的市 场流动性和平稳运行，根据《上海证券交易所基金自律监管规则适用指引第2号——上市基金做市业 务》等相关规定，本所同意国泰海通证券股份有限公司自2026年02月10日起为金融ETF提供主做市服 务。 特此公告。 2026年02月09日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations, as the underlying trends indicate a shift from virtual to real economies in Europe and the US, alongside the disruptive innovation brought by AI [2] - The article highlights the increasing urgency for strategic security investments and the balancing act between short-term shareholder interests and long-term infrastructure investments in the US and Europe [2] - It suggests that China's capital market has already completed the transition from virtual to real pricing and is currently in the process of validating and pricing for quality and efficiency improvements [2] Group 2 - The outlook for the A-share market in the next 1-2 months is optimistic, with historical data indicating a strong seasonal effect around February and the Spring Festival [3] - The article notes that the number of companies with low expectations or losses has reached a new high, suggesting that negative earnings reports are being digested, which may lead to a lighter market environment starting in February [3] - It encourages investors to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of the upcoming bullish cycle around the 4000-point level [3] Group 3 - The article advocates for holding stocks during the holiday season, citing a positive outlook for the Chinese market driven by a shift towards domestic demand and government support for capital market stability [4] - It mentions a resurgence in stock buybacks among A-share companies, indicating a strengthening market sentiment [4] - The recommendation includes maintaining positions in sectors such as consumer services, food and beverage, and emerging technologies like internet and robotics [5] Group 4 - The article discusses the limited impact of external shocks on the Chinese market, suggesting that the recent adjustments are more about emotional digestion rather than fundamental changes [6] - It highlights the potential for a recovery in the market post-Spring Festival, driven by increased risk appetite and upcoming catalysts in various sectors [6] - The focus is on sectors like AI computing, chemicals, and power equipment, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming market environment [10] Group 5 - The article indicates that the Hang Seng Technology Index has potential for recovery, especially if the liquidity shock subsides and new catalysts emerge in the AI sector [7] - It suggests that the market may experience a rotation towards sectors benefiting from major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, such as construction materials and energy [7] - The overall sentiment is that the market will likely see a stronger performance post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels [7] Group 6 - The article emphasizes the revaluation of Chinese assets, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and the return of capital from export enterprises [8] - It suggests that the focus should be on physical assets and sectors with global competitive advantages, such as energy and equipment manufacturing [8] - The recommendation includes sectors like oil, copper, and lithium, which are expected to benefit from a stabilization in demand and low inventory levels [8]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of brokerages believe that despite recent volatility in the A-share market, market sentiment has been sufficiently released, and the adjustment phase may be nearing its end. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to bring positive calendar effects, making it a good opportunity to hold stocks during the holiday [1][10][12]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Brokerages suggest that the current external disturbances have not significantly impacted China's industrial fundamentals, and the market's emotional release indicates that the adjustment is largely complete. A spring market rally is anticipated post-Spring Festival, making it advisable to hold stocks during the holiday [1][10][13]. - The sentiment in the market is expected to improve due to the "Spring Festival effect" and increasing event catalysts, which could create a favorable environment for equity assets [14][13]. - Historical data shows that A-shares tend to rise around the Spring Festival, and with manageable external risks, the current market remains in a bullish atmosphere, suggesting that holding stocks during the holiday may be a relatively better strategy [12][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining a base in "resources + traditional manufacturing," while also increasing allocations in consumer and real estate chains. There is a recommendation to look for opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in AI-related industries [2][4][18]. - The focus on high-growth technology sectors, such as AI computing, robotics, and semiconductors, is emphasized as a key investment direction, alongside cyclical commodities that are expected to see price increases [18][5]. - The market is expected to experience a rotation, with sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) likely to perform better post-holiday, as historical trends indicate a recovery in risk appetite after the Spring Festival [17][11].

为满足广大投资者的理财需求，上海国泰海通证券资产管理有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"基金管理 人"或"国泰海通资管"）决定，自2026年2月9日起，对本公司旗下满足转换业务规则的所有公开募集证 券投资基金（以下简称"公募基金"）在本公司直销柜台开通基金转换业务。基金转换是指投资者可将其 通过销售机构购买并持有的本公司旗下某只基金的全部或部分基金份额，转换为本公司管理的、同一销 售机构销售的且属同一注册登记机构的另一只开放式基金的份额的行为。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、办理时间 公司旗下满足转换业务规则的所有公募基金的转换业务自2026年2月9日起正式开通，业务办理时间为上 海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所交易日（本公司公告暂停申购、赎回时除外）。 二、适用基金 所有在国泰海通资管直销柜台销售的场外公开募集证券投资基金。基金管理人管理的基金类型为基金中 基金（FOF）、货币市场基金、QDII基金、不动产投资信托基金（REITs）及个人养老金基金名录中的 Y类基金份额暂不开放转换业务。 后续本公司新成立其他证券投资基金在直销柜台上线的，在满足基金转换业务规则后将自动开通基金转 换业务，不再另行公告，敬请投资者留意。 ...

报告导读： 从技术面来看，情绪模型继续显示市场情绪较低；均线强弱指数仍还有较多的 下行空间；高频资金流模型显示各大宽基指数信号都出现转向。综上所述，我们认为，市 场下周或继续以震荡为主。 下周（20260209-20260213，后文同）市场观点： 市场下周或继续以震荡为主。从量化指标上看，基于沪深300指数的流动性冲击指标周五为6.21，高于前一 周（5.07），意味着当前市场的流动性高于过去一年平均水平6.21倍标准差。上证50ETF期权成交量的PUT-CALL比率震荡上升，周五为0.96，高于前一周 （0.89），投资者对上证50ETF短期走势谨慎程度上升。上证综指和Wind全A五日平均换手率分别为1.34%和1.97%，处于2005年以来的77.24%和82.76%分位 点，交易活跃度有所下降。从宏观因子上看，1. 上周人民币汇率震荡，在岸和离岸汇率周涨幅分别为0.07%、0.27%。2. 根据国家统计局公布的数据，中国1月 官方制造业PMI为49.3，低于前值（50.1）和Wind一致预期（50.18）。标普全球中国制造业PMI为50.3，高于前值（50.1）。技术分析上，1. 从SAR指标来 看， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new account openings, with 4.9158 million new accounts in January 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 213% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 89% [4]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift of funds from traditional banks to capital markets and non-bank financial institutions, driven by the expiration of 70 trillion yuan in one-year or longer deposits and a decline in net interest margins [4]. - The report discusses the need for China's financial sector to transition from being large to strong, focusing on mergers and acquisitions as a core growth engine for brokerages [4]. - The report notes that the international business landscape for brokerages is expanding due to the deepening process of RMB internationalization and the demand for cross-border wealth management and investment banking services [4]. - The report mentions that Ping An Group has increased its stake in China Life (H) multiple times, reflecting a strong confidence in the insurance sector [4][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,643.60 with a decline of 1.33%, while the non-bank index closed at 2,030.92 with a decline of 0.60% [8]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported declines of 0.65%, 0.71%, and an increase of 0.43%, respectively [8]. Non-Bank Industry News and Key Announcements - The report outlines regulatory updates regarding virtual currencies and asset tokenization, indicating a tightening of oversight in these areas [10]. - Ping An Group's recent acquisitions of shares in China Life (H) are detailed, showcasing a strategic investment approach [12]. - Huatai Securities plans to issue 10 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds to support overseas business development [14]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerages with strong comprehensive capabilities, recommending stocks such as Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities A+H [4]. - For insurance, the report recommends China Life (H), New China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance, highlighting the systemic value reassessment opportunities in the insurance sector [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Sentiment Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The sentiment model is designed to measure the strength of market sentiment using factors related to limit-up and limit-down stocks[14] - **Model Construction Process**: The model incorporates factors such as the proportion of net limit-up stocks, next-day returns of limit-down stocks, proportion of limit-up stocks, proportion of limit-down stocks, and high-frequency board-hitting returns. These factors are aggregated to generate a sentiment score, with a maximum score of 5. The sentiment score for the current period is 0[14][18] - **Model Evaluation**: The sentiment model indicates weak market sentiment, as reflected by the score of 0[14][18] 2. Model Name: Moving Average Strength Index - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the strength of market trends by calculating the moving average strength index based on secondary industry indices[14] - **Model Construction Process**: The moving average strength index is calculated using the performance of secondary industry indices. The current market score is 181, which corresponds to the 62.50th percentile since 2023[14] - **Model Evaluation**: The model suggests that the market still has significant downside potential[14] 3. Model Name: High-Frequency Capital Flow Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses high-frequency capital flow trends to generate buy and sell signals for major broad-based indices[14] - **Model Construction Process**: The model tracks high-frequency capital flows and generates signals for indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000. The signals for all indices are currently negative, indicating a bearish outlook[14][18] - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows a bearish signal across all major indices, reflecting weak market conditions[14][18] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Sentiment Model - Sentiment score: 0 (out of 5)[14][18] 2. Moving Average Strength Index - Current score: 181 (62.50th percentile since 2023)[14] 3. High-Frequency Capital Flow Model - CSI 300: Negative signal - CSI 500: Negative signal - CSI 1000: Negative signal - CSI 2000: Negative signal[14][18] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Factor Crowding Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor crowding indicator measures the degree of crowding in specific factors, which can serve as a warning for factor underperformance[19] - **Factor Construction Process**: The indicator is calculated using four metrics: valuation spread, pairwise correlation, long-term return reversal, and factor volatility. These metrics are aggregated to produce a composite crowding score for each factor. For example: - Small-cap factor crowding score: 0.06 - Low-valuation factor crowding score: -0.31 - High-profitability factor crowding score: -0.01 - High-growth factor crowding score: 0.28[19][20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The crowding scores indicate varying levels of crowding across factors, with low-valuation and high-profitability factors showing negative scores, suggesting potential underperformance[19][20] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Factor Crowding Indicator - Small-cap factor crowding score: 0.06 - Low-valuation factor crowding score: -0.31 - High-profitability factor crowding score: -0.01 - High-growth factor crowding score: 0.28[19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong demand for financing from securities firms, leading to a significant increase in bond issuance, with a total approval amount exceeding 3,400 billion yuan for 2026 [5][10]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Trends - As of February 4, 2026, 12 securities firms have received approval for bond issuance, with a total amount reaching 3,400 billion yuan [5]. - In 2026, 46 securities firms have issued 120 domestic bonds, totaling over 3,168 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 2,227.17 billion yuan [6][10]. - The bond issuance volume in 2026 has increased by over three times compared to the same period last year, driven by a low base from 2025 [6]. Group 2: Major Issuers - Leading securities firms such as Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan Securities have issued 350 billion yuan and 340 billion yuan in bonds, respectively, making them the largest issuers in 2026 [7]. - Other significant issuers include CITIC Securities, China Merchants Securities, and China Galaxy Securities, each exceeding 200 billion yuan in bond issuance [7][8]. Group 3: Purpose of Fundraising - The primary purpose of the bond issuance is to ensure liquidity and support business development, with many firms indicating that funds will be used for debt repayment and to supplement working capital [11][12]. - Specific allocations for capital-consuming businesses have been noted, with firms like Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities committing to limit the use of raised funds for such purposes to no more than 10% [13]. Group 4: H-share Financing - In addition to domestic bond issuance, major securities firms are also engaging in H-share refinancing, with Guangfa Securities planning to raise over 6 billion HKD through a combination of new H-share placements and convertible bonds [15]. - Huatai Securities announced a zero-coupon convertible bond issuance of 10 billion HKD, aimed at supporting overseas business development and enhancing operational capital [18].

2026年02月06日，瑞鹄模具披露接待调研公告，公司于02月06日接待睿远基金、国泰海通证券、开源证 券等3家机构调研。 瑞鹄模具（002997）最新股价为 34.77元，与前一交易日收盘价持平，总市值72.78亿元。从行业市盈率 来看，瑞鹄模具所处的汽车零部件行业滚动市盈率平均56.51倍，行业中值41.00倍，瑞鹄模具16.08倍排 名第10位。 天眼查资料显示，瑞鹄汽车模具股份有限公司成立于 2002年03月15日，是一家以从事专用设备制造业 为主的企业。截至2026年01月30日，瑞鹄模具股东户数24042户，较上次减少1358户，户均持股市值 30.27万元，户均持股数量0.87万股。 参与此次调研的睿远基金是一家以价值投资、研究驱动和长期投资风格为主的长期价值投资机构，聚焦 于权益投资和固定收益投资领域。截至目前，管理基金数量5只，其中睿远成长价值混合A最新单位净 值为1.9237，近一年增长66.96%。 调研情况显示，瑞鹄模具针对投资者关注的可转债募投项目进行了详细说明，公司表示三个募投项目分 别为"中高档乘用车大型精密覆盖件模具智能制造升级扩产项目"、"大型精密覆盖件模具关键材料智能 增材 ...