Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of the derivatives business for brokerage firms, particularly in the context of their proprietary trading operations [1][2][3] Group 1: Development of Derivatives Business - From 2018 to 2022, the nominal principal of the OTC derivatives business in the brokerage industry grew from 346.7 billion to 2,086.8 billion, achieving a CAGR of 57% [1] - The derivatives business has significantly contributed to the performance of brokerages, reflecting the changes in customer demand and regulatory policies as key factors influencing its development [1] - The derivatives business in China has gone through four major development phases since its inception in 2012, with regulatory improvements and market environment changes being pivotal [1] Group 2: Differentiation Among Brokerages - The evolution of brokerage proprietary models indicates that the growth certainty provided by derivatives will be a key differentiator among brokerages [2] - Previously, brokerage firms had similar self-operated business models, but the current environment has led to a divergence in profitability, with firms leveraging derivatives for stable growth showing stronger performance [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The steady development of the derivatives business is seen as an inevitable trend, with a focus on high-quality leading brokerages that can leverage their customer base and expertise to create competitive advantages [3] - Regulatory frameworks are becoming more standardized, and the recent "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the steady development of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the evolution of brokerage proprietary models and the growth certainty provided by derivatives will be critical for future differentiation, favoring high-quality leading brokerages with scale advantages [4]

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 116 companies were listed on the A-share market, representing a 16% increase from 100 companies in the same period last year [1] - The net fundraising amount for these 116 newly listed companies reached 122.025 billion yuan, a significant increase of 104.25% compared to 59.743 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The total fees charged by IPO intermediaries for these companies amounted to 9.156 billion yuan, with underwriting and sponsorship fees accounting for 6.704 billion yuan, legal fees for 0.821 billion yuan, and audit fees for 1.631 billion yuan [1] Segment Analysis Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - The total underwriting and sponsorship fees ranked by board are as follows: Sci-Tech Innovation Board (21.54 billion yuan), Shanghai Main Board (15.37 billion yuan), Growth Enterprise Market (15.11 billion yuan), Shenzhen Main Board (9.24 billion yuan), and Beijing Stock Exchange (5.78 billion yuan) [2][3] - The average underwriting fee is highest for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 11.337 million yuan, while the lowest is for the Beijing Stock Exchange at 2.222 million yuan [4] Legal Fees - The total legal fees ranked by firms are led by Shanghai Jintiancheng (1.14 billion yuan), followed by Beijing Zhonglun (1.05 billion yuan), and Zhejiang Tiance (0.57 billion yuan) [7][8] - The average legal fee is highest for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 832.01 thousand yuan, and lowest for the Beijing Stock Exchange at 364.62 thousand yuan [4] Audit Fees - The top three audit firms by total fees are Rongcheng (4.17 billion yuan), Tianjian (2.86 billion yuan), and Lixin (2.19 billion yuan) [10][11] - The average audit fee is highest for the Shanghai Main Board at 1.8518 million yuan, and lowest for the Beijing Stock Exchange at 632.39 thousand yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of digital RMB implementation and the formal introduction of new fund sales fee regulations are expected to optimize the financial ecosystem and payment system [1][2]. Securities Sector - The People's Bank of China will officially implement a new action plan for digital RMB management and related financial infrastructure by January 1, 2026, which is expected to enhance monetary policy transmission efficiency and support the internationalization of the RMB [2]. - The new fund sales fee regulations, effective December 31, 2025, will allow differentiated redemption fees for bond funds, significantly reducing the pressure from short-term redemptions and encouraging long-term holding by investors [2]. Investment Recommendations for Securities - Focus on undervalued brokers for potential rebound during the spring market, with strong recommendations for quality brokers with significant valuation and performance mismatches, particularly Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities [3]. - Attention should be given to Sichuan Shuangma, which is positioned in the technology sector and is expected to benefit from venture capital opportunities in gene therapy [3]. - Highlighting multi-financial firms with impressive growth rates, such as Yixin Group, Far East Horizon, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [3]. Insurance Sector - The tax base switch is expected to have minimal impact on insurance companies' net profits and net assets, with high proportions of tax-exempt income and deferred tax liabilities [4]. - The new tax guidelines for insurance contracts will require companies to follow new standards starting in 2026, but the actual taxable income is projected to remain low due to high tax-exempt income ratios [4]. Investment Recommendations for Insurance - The high growth in liabilities is expected to drive valuation shifts, with the insurance sector benefiting from increased demand for savings and the rising market share of leading companies [5]. - The upcoming insurance market rally is supported by stable or improving conditions in the stock market and interest rates, which will enhance the balance sheets of major insurance companies [5].

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 116 companies were listed on the A-share market, representing a 16% increase from 100 companies in the same period last year [1] - The net fundraising amount for these 116 newly listed companies reached 1220.25 billion yuan, a significant increase of 104.25% compared to 597.43 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The total fees charged by IPO intermediaries for these companies amounted to 91.56 billion yuan, with underwriting and sponsorship fees accounting for 67.04 billion yuan, legal fees for 8.21 billion yuan, and audit fees for 16.31 billion yuan [1] Segment Analysis Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - The total underwriting and sponsorship fees by segment are ranked as follows: Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Shanghai Main Board, ChiNext, Shenzhen Main Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange [2] - The average underwriting fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 11,337.61 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 2,222.30 thousand yuan [5][6] - The total underwriting fees are led by CITIC Securities with 12.44 billion yuan from 15 deals, followed by Guotai Junan and CITIC Jinshi with 9.96 billion yuan and 8.82 billion yuan, respectively [8][10] Legal Fees - The top three law firms by total fees are Shanghai Jintiancheng, Beijing Zhonglun, and Zhejiang Tiance, with total fees of 1.14 billion yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 0.57 billion yuan, respectively [11] - The average legal fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 832.01 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 364.62 thousand yuan [5] Audit Fees - The leading audit firms by total fees are Rongcheng, Tianjian, and Lixin, with total fees of 4.17 billion yuan, 2.86 billion yuan, and 2.19 billion yuan, respectively [12][14] - The average audit fee is highest in the Shanghai Main Board at 1,851.80 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 632.39 thousand yuan [6] Overall Fee Structure - The total fees for intermediaries in the IPO process are distributed as follows: underwriting fees (67.04 billion yuan), legal fees (8.21 billion yuan), and audit fees (16.31 billion yuan) [1][4] - The average fees across segments indicate that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board commands the highest fees overall, while the Beijing Stock Exchange has the lowest average fees [5][6]

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 中信证券：人心思涨，预计开年市场震荡向上 从机构的赚钱效应来看，2025年在过去10年里能排到第三，过去20年里排到第六。在一个回头来看巨大 的结构性牛市当中，实际上市场既享受了预期差带来的"估值的钱"，也挣到了"业绩的钱"，预期差来自于 对中国自主科技能力的重估以及中美关系，而结构性的超预期业绩来自复杂贸易环境下外需的韧性以及AI 推理需求爆发，这些因素站在2025年初来看并不是那么理所应当会发生。增量流动性只是预期差和业绩 兑现过程中的结果，或者是用于后验的解释牛市形成的理由，投资者过于高估了增量资金对市场的影响。 增量资金入市不会是2026年市场上一个新台阶的主要因素。2026年最大的预期差来自于外需与内需的平 衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去年末的资金热度并 不算高，人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。 国泰海通：一年之计在于春 在市场持续反弹之际，中国股市有望跨越与站稳重要关口。海外流动性的宽松，叠加春节前结汇，有望推 动人民币的稳定与升值。以A500E ...

Core Insights - The capital market showed a positive trend in 2025, with active trading reflected in the significant increase in transaction volume on the Longhu list, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with notable changes in the rankings of the top 100 brokerage departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" firms [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Longhu list 123,900 times, with a total transaction volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The top 100 brokerage departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan of the total transaction volume, representing 67.66% of the market share, indicating a strong head effect [2] Group 2: Top Brokerage Departments - The "Lhasa team" under Dongfang Caifu Securities maintained a strong performance, occupying three of the top ten positions, with the Lhasa Tuanjie Road No. 1 Securities Department leading with a transaction volume of 127.87 billion yuan [2] - New entrants to the top ten include Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie Securities Department, which rose from 27th place in 2024 to 3rd in 2025, and several other firms that significantly improved their rankings [2][3] Group 3: Emerging Firms and Foreign Participation - Several "dark horse" brokerage departments made significant leaps in rankings, such as Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an District New Zha Road Securities Department, which rose from 559th to 14th place [3] - The presence of foreign brokerage firms is increasing, with six foreign brokerage departments making it into the top 50, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, showcasing their growing influence in the market [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The competition in brokerage business has intensified, reflecting differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength among various firms, as well as the strategic focus on regional development by branch offices [5] - The Longhu list serves as an important indicator of market sentiment and hotspots, with sectors like general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors attracting significant investment [6]

Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. military action against Venezuela is expected to cause significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with short-term production and exports being impacted, leading to a potential rise in oil prices[1] - If the U.S. invests in Venezuelan oil, it may lead to a downward shift in the price equilibrium in the medium to long term[1] Economic Impact - Short-term oil price increases may exacerbate inflation expectations in the U.S., potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule[1] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate slightly increased to 94.7% in the week of December 26, 2025, compared to 94.6% the previous week[9] Market Performance - Emerging market stock indices rose by 2.27%, while developed market indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 1.03%[8] - Commodity prices mostly declined, with the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index down by 0.37% and COMEX copper down by 2.62%[8] Inflation and Interest Rates - The 10-year inflation expectation in the U.S. rose by 3 basis points to 1.94% as of January 2, 2026[15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to be cautious with interest rate cuts due to geopolitical tensions affecting inflation[25] European Economic Indicators - Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.0%, while France and the UK saw increases to 50.7% and 50.6%, respectively[19] - Eurozone bond yields fell, with the 1-year yield decreasing from 2.0269% to 2.0237%[19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is recommended to adopt a balanced and growth - oriented style allocation, emphasizing the technology mainline while taking into account pro - cyclical and large - finance sectors. For equity - hybrid funds, emerging technology remains the mainline in 2026, with a focus on the transformation of cyclical and consumer sectors and continued optimism about large - finance. For bond funds, the pressure in the first quarter of 2026 is relatively limited, with a "weak - first - then - strong" rhythm [1][4][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review A - Share Market - The A - share market was volatile and structurally differentiated. The petrochemical, national defense and military industry, and media sectors led the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index had an 11 - day consecutive rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 3968.84 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% to 13525.02 points. Among the major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.47%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.59%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.09%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.12%. The total trading volume of the two A - share markets was 6.33 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by about 163.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the industry aspect, 12 out of 31 Shenwan primary industries rose, and 19 fell. The top - performing industries were petrochemical, national defense and military industry, media, automobile, and machinery and equipment, rising 3.92%, 3.05%, 2.13%, 1.44%, and 1.32% respectively; the bottom - performing industries were public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance, falling 2.72%, 2.26%, 2.18%, 2.06%, and 1.84% respectively [6]. Bond Market - The bond market declined, with both short - and long - term interest rates rising. The central bank's net open - market operation injection of 1.17 trillion yuan to maintain cross - year liquidity was offset by high cross - year capital demand, pushing up capital interest rates. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 5BP to 1.34%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1BP to 1.85%; the 1 - year CDB bond yield rose 2BP to 1.55%, and the 10 - year CDB bond yield rose 2BP to 2%. In the credit bond market, the grade spread widened, and the term spread was differentiated. The AAA - rated corporate bond yield rose 1BP, the AA - rated corporate bond yield rose 2BP, and the urban investment bond yield rose 1BP. The ChinaBond Total Net Price Index fell 0.23%, the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.31%, the ChinaBond Financial Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.12%, and the ChinaBond Corporate Bond Total Net Price Index fell 0.04%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.27% [7]. Global Market - Global stock markets showed mixed performance, with oil prices rising and gold prices falling. The US stock market declined due to reduced interest - rate cut expectations and increased concerns about AI valuation bubbles. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.33%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.03%, and the Nasdaq Index fell 1.52%. European stock markets generally rose, with the French CAC40 Index rising 1.13%, the German DAX Index rising 0.82%, and the British FTSE 100 Index rising 0.82%. The Asia - Pacific markets were also differentiated, with the Nikkei 225 Index falling 0.81%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rising 2.78%, the South Korean Composite Index rising 4.36%, and the Hang Seng Index rising 2.01%. The US Dollar Index rose 0.43%. In the commodity market, global oil prices rose, and the precious metal market experienced a sharp correction after the CME Group raised trading margins, with the precious metal index falling 5.20%, COMEX gold falling 4.63%, and COMEX silver falling 6.39% [8]. 2. Last Week's Fund Market Review - Stock - type funds fell 0.45%, with index stock - type funds falling 0.38% and active stock open - type funds falling 0.76%. Active hybrid open - type funds fell 0.48%. Funds heavily invested in humanoid robots and commercial aerospace sectors performed well. Among index funds, aerospace, robot, and media theme funds were among the top performers [10]. - Bond - type funds fell 0.06%. Partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity allocations in non - ferrous metals, TMT, or military industries performed well. The annualized yield of money market funds was 1.25%. Among QDII funds, equity QDII funds fell 0.68%, with funds heavily invested in Asia - Pacific technology sectors and crude - oil theme funds performing better. QDII bond - type funds rose 0.04%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds fell 3.18%, and commodity - type funds fell 2.76% [10][11][12]. 3. Future Investment Strategies Macroeconomy - The macro policy in 2026 will be more proactive and front - loaded. The new local government debt quota for 2026 has been pre - allocated. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued the list of the first - batch of "two major" construction projects and the central budgetary investment plan for 2026, totaling about 295 billion yuan, and will accelerate the allocation and use of funds. The first - batch of 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - in has been pre - allocated [13]. Stock Market - The Chinese stock market is expected to cross and stabilize at important levels. Emerging technology remains the mainline, and there is a focus on the transformation of cyclical and consumer sectors. Large - finance is still favored. Recommended sectors include technology growth (such as Hong Kong - listed internet, media, computer, and computing power, as well as globally competitive manufacturing going overseas in power equipment and machinery), large - finance (securities and insurance), and pro - cyclical sectors (consumer stocks in food and beverages, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, hotels, and tourism services, as well as cyclical sectors like non - ferrous metals and chemicals) [14][15]. Bond Market - In the first quarter of 2026, the bond market's core concerns are policy expectations and bond issuance rhythm. The government bond issuance progress may be slower than in 2025, with the net financing in the first quarter accounting for about 25% of the whole year. The bond market may be under pressure due to the potential spring rally in the stock market. The probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut is higher than an interest - rate cut. In 2026, there will be new features in the bond market, such as more timely support from MLF, repurchase, and Treasury bond trading, possible lower funds volatility and lower certificate - of - deposit interest rates, a possible change in the bond - market configuration power around the Spring Festival, and a lower and more short - term impact of equity and commodity markets on the bond market, with a possibility of "double - bull" in stocks and bonds [15][16]. Fund Investment - For equity - hybrid funds, a balanced and growth - oriented style allocation is recommended. Long - term attention should be paid to technology - themed funds, and products mainly investing in pro - cyclical and financial sectors should also be considered. For bond funds, given the expected volatility in early 2026, interest - rate bond funds with flexible duration adjustments or products heavily invested in high - liquidity credit bonds are recommended. Money market funds have no trend - based investment opportunities, and gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated for long - term and hedging investments [17]. 4. Latest Fund Market Developments Impact of New Fund Fee Regulations on Bond Funds - The new regulations partially exempt the redemption fees of bond funds and index funds. For individual investors holding index funds and bond funds for more than 7 days and institutional investors holding bond funds for more than 30 days, the fund managers can negotiate the redemption fee standards. The transition period for non - compliant existing funds is set at 12 months. Short - term bond funds may face challenges as the exemption threshold for institutional investors is raised, and funds may flow to money market funds or bond ETFs. Bond ETFs may expand in scale but shorten their duration [18][19]. Total Public - Offering Fund Assets Exceed 37 Trillion Yuan - As of the end of November 2025, the total net asset value of public - offering funds in China reached 37.02 trillion yuan for the first time, with continuous growth since the end of April. Compared with the end of October, the scale of bond funds, money market funds, FOF, and other funds increased, while the scale of stock funds and hybrid funds decreased. However, investors' subscriptions for equity - type funds were still active, and equity - type funds were the main focus of public - offering institutions in November [20][21]. New Fund Launches Last Week - A total of 33 new funds were established last week, including 12 passive index funds, 7 enhanced index funds, 6 partial - stock hybrid funds, 3 hybrid bond - type secondary funds, 2 ordinary stock funds, 2 hybrid FOFs, and 1 passive index bond fund. The average subscription period was about 15 days, and the average raised share was 361 million shares, with a total of 11.916 billion shares [22]. Fund Dividends Next Week - There will be 30 fund share ex - rights registrations next week. The most notable is the Zhongjin Shanjiao Group Expressway REIT, which will distribute a dividend of 1.24 yuan per 10 shares [23].

Core Viewpoint - The new regulations aim to enhance the competitiveness of public funds while considering the liquidity needs of holders of off-market index and bond funds, thus promoting high-quality development in the public fund industry [2][3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The new regulations, effective from January 1, 2026, optimize short redemption fee policies for off-market index and bond funds, addressing feedback from the consultation draft [2][3]. - The maximum subscription fee for actively managed mixed equity funds has been raised from 0.5% to 0.8%, while the maximum for index funds is set at 0.3% [2]. - New provisions allow for different redemption fee standards for individual investors holding off-market index and bond funds for more than seven days, and for institutional investors holding bond funds for more than thirty days [2][3]. Impact on Fund Sales - The regulations continue to guide fund sales towards a focus on long-term holding, while also accommodating liquidity needs for off-market index and bond fund holders [3]. - The average maximum subscription fee for stock index funds, previously at 0.73%, is expected to decrease further, enhancing the attractiveness of these funds for long-term investors [3]. Investment Recommendations - The new regulations are seen as favorable for the development of bond funds, with ETF holdings becoming a key focus in the fund distribution model [3]. - It is recommended to prioritize brokers with strong ETF comprehensive service capabilities and investment advisory business [3].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese securities industry underwent profound changes under the strategy of "cultivating first-class investment banks," marked by resource integration, technological empowerment, and ecological restructuring, signaling a new chapter for the industry. Group 1: Major Events - The merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities in 2025 established a new "dual leader" pattern in the industry, with the combined entity "Guotai Haitong" reporting a net profit of 22.074 billion yuan, closely following CITIC Securities' 23.159 billion yuan, both surpassing the 20 billion yuan mark [4] - The first "three-in-one" integration in the industry is being planned by CICC, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities, which, if completed, will create a new model for industry integration with total assets exceeding 1 trillion yuan [5] - The margin trading balance reached a historical high of 2.551734 trillion yuan by December 29, 2025, accounting for 2.59% of the A-share market's circulating market value, with a 288% year-on-year increase in new accounts opened in September 2025 [6] Group 2: Regulatory and Structural Changes - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and renamed the "Securities Company Classification Evaluation Regulations" in 2025, focusing on guiding the industry to serve national strategies and enhancing professional capabilities [7] - AI applications in securities firms accelerated, with leading institutions showcasing advancements at the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference, enhancing capabilities in investment research and risk control [8] Group 3: Leadership and Talent Dynamics - Over 10 chief economists in the securities industry changed positions in 2025, primarily due to the merger wave, indicating a significant reshuffling of talent [9] - More than 50 securities firms experienced changes in leadership roles, with approximately one-third of firms undergoing a "leadership change," driven by factors such as retirement and shareholder changes due to mergers [10] Group 4: Market Competition and Trends - Despite the rising trend of "anti-involution," a price war among securities firms intensified, with commission rates dropping to as low as 0.01% and financing rates falling below 4%, highlighting the need for the industry to return to its core financial services [11] - Securities firms were first included as issuers of Sci-Tech Innovation Bonds in May 2025, with total issuance exceeding 80 billion yuan since then, enhancing their competitive edge [12] - The wave of public fund business that began in 2022 receded in 2025, with several institutions withdrawing their applications for public fund qualifications, indicating a shift in business models [14]