Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities maintains an "Overweight" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633), anticipating accelerated revenue growth in H2 2025 due to a low base, various market initiatives, and favorable prices for PET bottle chips. The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 1.38/1.66/1.93 yuan (previously 1.35/1.62/1.91 yuan), with a target price of HKD 63.85 per share based on a 35x PE ratio for 2026 [1][9]. Market Performance - In H1 2025, the company's packaged water revenue grew by 10.7%, showing a stable recovery. The market share for packaged water is expected to continue to rise in H2 2025 due to a low base in H2 2024 and ongoing channel efforts [2][10]. - The tea beverage segment saw a revenue increase of 19.7% in H1 2025, driven by promotional activities for "Oriental Leaf" and "Ice Tea." The market share for tea beverages improved by 4.1% in H1 and is projected to increase by 5.7% in H2 2025, benefiting from seasonal demand and product diversification [2][10]. - Juice revenue increased by 21.3% in H1 2025, with expectations for continued growth in H2 2025 due to the competitive advantages of C100 and NFC juices [2][10]. Revenue Growth Outlook - Overall, the company's revenue grew by 15.6% in H1 2025 compared to a normal base (8.36% growth in H1 2024). The company is expected to see accelerated revenue growth in H2 2025, aided by low base effects and seasonal market activities [3][11]. Profitability Factors - The price of PET bottle chips, a key raw material, decreased by 11.12% year-on-year and 3.60% quarter-on-quarter in H2 2025, which is expected to positively impact the company's gross margin. Additionally, the absence of significant promotional expenses in H2 2025, unlike the previous year during the Paris Olympics, is anticipated to help maintain strong profitability [4][12].

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities initiates coverage on Lin Qingxuan (02657) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's long-standing focus on oil-based skincare and its potential for sustained rapid growth driven by Douyin and product expansion [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Lin Qingxuan, founded in 2003, initially focused on natural skincare products like handmade soaps and aloe vera gel, and launched its flagship product, camellia oil essence, in 2014, establishing itself as a pioneer in oil-based skincare [1] - The company has a stable and experienced management team, and has recently accelerated its online transformation, with significant growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, achieving 10.5 million and 1.8 million RMB respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 98% and 110% [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The oil-based skincare segment is experiencing high demand, with the market size projected to reach 5.3 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43% and a CAGR of 42% from 2019 to 2024 [2] - Lin Qingxuan has maintained a leading position in the facial essence oil category, holding a 12.4% market share in 2024, significantly ahead of other brands [2] Group 3: Sales and Distribution Channels - The company's flagship product, the camellia oil essence, has seen rapid growth, with revenue from this category increasing by 176% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, accounting for 46% of total revenue [3] - Online sales have surged, with Douyin driving a 137% year-on-year increase in online revenue, which now constitutes 65% of total sales; the company also has over 554 physical stores, indicating substantial room for further expansion [3]

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，首次覆盖，给予林清轩(02657)"增持"评级，公司深耕以 油养肤赛道多年，抖音助力大单品爆发，拓品类、拓渠道下有望实现持续快速增长。预计公司2025- 2027年EPS2.75、4.18、5.49元人民币，综合考虑PE和PS两种估值方式取平均值，给予公司合理估值149 亿元人民币(对应166亿港币)，给予目标价118.57港币，对应2025PE26x。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 深耕以油养肤赛道多年，成长及盈利能力突出 公司主品牌林清轩创立于2003年，早年主打手工皂、芦荟胶等天然护肤品，2014年正式推出大单品山茶 花精华油，以山茶花为核心成分，成为"以油养肤"开创者，后公司进行品牌升级，确立以油养肤为核心 的中高端品牌定位。公司高管行业经验丰富、团队稳定。近年来公司发力线上转型，抖音大单品精华油 持续放量，2025H1公司营收、净利润10.5、1.8亿元同比+98%、110%，业绩增长加速。 以油养肤高景气，公司份额领先 据灼识咨询数据，精华油作为近年来需求快速增长的品类，2024年市场规模53亿元同比+43%，2019- 2024年CAGR42%，近年来随 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities maintains an "Overweight" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633), anticipating accelerated revenue growth in H2 2025 due to low base effects, market initiatives, and favorable pricing of PET bottle chips [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In H1 2025, Nongfu Spring's packaged water revenue increased by 10.7%, showing steady recovery, with market share expected to rise further in H2 2025 due to low base effects and ongoing channel efforts [2] - The company's tea beverage revenue grew by 19.7% in H1 2025, driven by promotional activities such as "Open Cap Win Prize" and "One Yuan Exchange," with market share expected to accelerate in H2 2025 [2] - Juice revenue increased by 21.3% in H1 2025, with expectations for continued growth in H2 2025 due to outdoor consumption trends and competitive advantages of NFC juice [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth Expectations - Overall revenue growth for Nongfu Spring in H1 2025 was 15.6%, with expectations for accelerated growth in H2 2025 due to low base effects and seasonal market initiatives [3] Group 3: Profitability Factors - The price of PET bottle chips has decreased by 11.12% year-on-year and 3.60% quarter-on-quarter in H2 2025, which is expected to positively impact the company's gross margin [4] - The absence of significant marketing expenses in H2 2025, unlike the previous year during the Paris Olympics, is expected to help maintain strong profitability [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a shift from narrative-driven trends to performance-based evaluations as the market enters the earnings forecast period, with a focus on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment [2][5] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios is seen as a measure to stabilize the market and guide rational investment, indicating a potential shift towards a more balanced market environment [7][10] - The article highlights the acceleration of thematic rotation in the market, particularly focusing on domestic semiconductor and power sectors, driven by regulatory actions and strong demand [3][4] Group 2 - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to increased financing margin ratios and the cooling of previously hot themes, with a focus on sectors that show strong demand and industrial catalysts [4][8] - There is a recommendation for investors to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on sectors that benefit from structural changes and performance improvements, such as new energy and consumer goods [6][12] - The AI industry chain is identified as a key area for investment, with a consensus forming around its growth potential, despite some volatility in related sectors [13]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. has announced the convening of a fund holders' meeting for the Guotai ChiNext Pharmaceutical and Health Exchange-Traded Open-Ended Index Securities Investment Fund via communication methods, scheduled for January 15, 2026, to discuss the continuous operation of the fund [1][19]. Meeting Basic Information - The meeting will be held via communication methods, with voting starting from January 15, 2026, to March 2, 2026, at 17:00 [2]. - Fund holders must register their rights by the end of trading on January 15, 2026, to participate in the meeting [6]. - Holders of the linked fund can participate in the meeting and vote [3]. Voting Process - Voting tickets can be obtained from the fund management's website or relevant newspapers, and must be submitted by the specified deadline [7][8]. - Each fund share grants one voting right, and the voting process will be supervised by authorized personnel [12][11]. Meeting Agenda - The main agenda item is the proposal regarding the continuous operation of the Guotai ChiNext Pharmaceutical and Health Exchange-Traded Open-Ended Index Securities Investment Fund [5][19]. Decision Effectiveness - The meeting requires that the fund shares represented by participants must account for at least half of the total shares as of the rights registration date for the resolutions to be valid [16]. - The resolutions will take effect immediately upon approval and must be reported to the China Securities Regulatory Commission within five days [17].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Shanghai Securities' sponsorship business license by the China Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to enhance the firm's investment banking service system and open new avenues for business development [1]. Group 1: Business Development - Shanghai Securities, established in 2001 with a registered capital of 5.327 billion yuan, has a total asset of 75.539 billion yuan as of mid-2025, reflecting a 3.63% increase year-on-year [2]. - In the first half of 2025, Shanghai Securities achieved an operating income of 1.526 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 53.73%, and a net profit of 706 million yuan, up 70.03% year-on-year [2]. - The newly acquired sponsorship business qualification is anticipated to inject new momentum into Shanghai Securities' investment banking operations, enhancing revenue sources and improving income structure [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape shows that leading brokers have significant advantages, with industry concentration continuing to rise. In 2025, CITIC Securities led with 43 sponsored projects, followed by Guotai Junan with 41 projects [3]. - The underwriting fees indicate a stark performance disparity among brokers, with CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan exceeding 1 billion yuan in fees, while many others earned less than 200 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Market Trends - The overall development of the investment banking sector is supported by a favorable market and active trading, with total net income from investment banking services for A-share listed brokers reaching 15.53 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.11% [4]. - Despite the positive market conditions, competition remains fierce, with 17 listed brokers experiencing over 30% growth in investment banking income, while 14 brokers saw a decline [4]. Group 4: Differentiation Strategies - In response to intensified competition, smaller brokers are accelerating the exploration of differentiated development paths, focusing on regional markets and specific client groups [4]. - For instance, First Capital aims to leverage shareholder resources to expand its coverage in Beijing and capitalize on opportunities in the bond market, while Northeast Securities focuses on high-growth SMEs [4][5]. - The industry is transitioning from a "channel-driven" model to a "professional-driven" model, emphasizing the importance of specialization and functionality in investment banking services [5].

以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260116）；报告日期：2026.01.18 报告作者： 报告导读： 2025 年，成长期优选组合累计收益 84.1% ，相较于 885001 指数超额收益 50.9% 。指数增强组合角度， ICIR 加权方式收益优于 IC 均值加权方式。 风险提示： 市场系统性风险、海外市场波动风险、模型误设风险。 报告来源 下周（20260119-20260123，后文同）市场观点：市场下周有望震荡上行。 从量化指标上看，基于沪深300指数的流动性冲击指标周五为3.32，高于前一 周（0.60），意味着当前市场的流动性高于过去一年平均水平3.32倍标准差。上证50ETF期权成交量的PUT-CALL比率震荡上升，周五为0.80，高于前一周 （0.64），投资者对上证50ETF短期走势谨慎程度上升。上证综指和Wind全A五日平均换手率分别为1.71%和2.71%，处于2005年以来的84.10%和 92.01%分位点，交易活跃度有所上升。从宏观因子上看，1. 上周人民币汇率震荡，在岸和离岸汇率周涨幅分别为0.19%、0.12%。2. ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Political Landscape - Trump's stance on the nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair has changed, with Waller becoming the candidate with the highest probability of being elected [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Powell, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Several Federal Reserve officials have adopted a hawkish tone, indicating a potential pause in interest rate cuts in January [1] Group 2: Global Market Performance - Commodities performed well during the week of January 12-16, 2026, with oil and gold prices rising due to heightened tensions with Iran, although prices later retreated following Trump's more conciliatory remarks [2] - The S&P 500 index declined by 0.4%, while the Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng indices rose by 3.8% and 2.3%, respectively [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.24%, while the domestic 10Y government bond futures price rose by 0.3% [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation remained moderate in December, with a weak performance in goods and strong performance in services [3] - Retail sales in November showed resilience, and December saw a rebound in existing home sales [3] - Industrial production growth in December maintained a high level, with an increase in capacity utilization [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the 30-year government bond, highlighting its unique position in the market characterized by high elasticity and liquidity, which has led to a "negative premium" situation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since December 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond has fluctuated, returning to 1.83%, while the 10-year policy bank bond increased from 1.90% to 1.96%, and the 30-year government bond surged from 2.19% to 2.30% [1]. - The high elasticity and liquidity of the 30-year and 10-year bonds make them preferred for flexible trading strategies, allowing for easier execution of hedging strategies [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - In a rising interest rate environment, the 30-year government bond faces directional trading challenges, but it is also a key instrument for various hedging strategies, including credit bonds and local government bonds [2]. - The borrowing and selling volume of the 30-year government bond has seen significant growth, with borrowing rates reaching 140-150 basis points [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for the 30-year government bond yield spread to recover depends on three scenarios: a sharp rebound, stable interest rate expectations, and central bank interventions [3]. - The upcoming market conditions may favor strategies that involve holding high coupon, low elasticity, and low liquidity bonds, particularly around the Spring Festival [3].