国防军工 2025 年 10 月 15 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 (8621)23297818× dasw@swsresearch.com - ⚫ 订单逐级有序传导，业绩拐点将至。我们选取 50 家分布于军工产业链上中下游的重点 标的，当前总市值 15058.0 亿元，约占申万国防军工指数成分股总市值的 52.4%。我们 预计军工行业 50 家 重 点 标 的 公 司 预 计 2025Q3 业绩总计约 71.78 亿 元 （yoy+34.0%），25Q1-Q3 业绩总计约 189.86 亿元（yoy-3.8%）。 ⚫ 受客户结构及确收节奏影响，预计各板块业绩有所分化。电子元器件板块，预计火炬电 子、鸿远电子 25Q ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the defense industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the successful launch of the "Yinli No. 1" rocket, which deployed three satellites, and notes the acceleration of unmanned transformation in multiple navies [2][7]. - It emphasizes that the intensification of great power competition is a long-term trend, suggesting that defense spending will increase as nations seek to ensure peace and security [8][9]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Recommended stocks include: 1) Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (600760.SH), Aerospace South Lake (688552.SH), AVIC Xi'an Aircraft (000768.SZ) 2) Components: AVIC Optoelectronics (002179.SZ), Guobo Electronics (688375.SH), Ruichuang Micro-Nano (688002.SH) 3) Subsystems: Aero Engine Corporation of China (600893.SH), AVIC Avionics (600372.SH), Northern Navigation (600435.SH) 4) Materials and Processing: Feilihua (300395.SZ), Guangwei Composite (300699.SZ), Huayin Technology (688281.SH) [9][10]. Market Review - The defense industry index rose by 0.24% last week, underperforming the broader market by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 16th out of 29 sectors [11][12]. - The report notes that the materials and processing sector performed particularly well during this period [11][12]. Major News in the Defense Industry - Domestic news includes the deployment of a naval escort fleet to the Gulf of Aden and the upcoming "Peace and Friendship-2025" joint exercise between China and Malaysia [21][25]. - Internationally, several navies, including those of the UK, France, the US, and South Korea, are advancing unmanned capabilities and enhancing collaborative operations between manned and unmanned systems [27][28].

Group 1 - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing a rise, with the CN5082 index up by 0.44% and key stocks like Great Wall Military Industry up by 8.67% [1] - The recent completion of the first phase of the Star Glory rocket assembly and testing factory in Hainan, covering an area of 28,800 square meters, is a significant development in the commercial aerospace sector [1] - The factory is set to receive its first reusable rocket by Q4 2025, laying the groundwork for future launches and sea recovery operations [1] Group 2 - The military industry has stabilized recently, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches [2] - The importance of upstream components and key raw materials in weapon development and production is highlighted, indicating potential benefits from demand amplification [2] - The military trade is expected to accelerate, particularly with Middle Eastern countries, as Chinese high-end equipment exports increase, presenting a second growth opportunity for the sector [2]

航发动力所属申万行业为：国防军工-航空装备Ⅱ-航空装备Ⅲ。所属概念板块包括：大飞机、央企改 革、航天军工、无人机、通用航空等。 截至6月30日，航发动力股东户数14.99万，较上期增加6.41%；人均流通股17778股，较上期减少 6.03%。2025年1月-6月，航发动力实现营业收入140.98亿元，同比减少23.99%；归母净利润9177.79万 元，同比减少84.57%。 分红方面，航发动力A股上市后累计派现40.57亿元。近三年，累计派现10.72亿元。 10月14日，航发动力盘中上涨2.07%，截至09:53，报43.87元/股，成交3.91亿元，换手率0.34%，总市值 1169.40亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1051.30万元，特大单买入2845.34万元，占比7.28%，卖出2534.21万 元，占比6.48%；大单买入7283.33万元，占比18.62%，卖出8645.76万元，占比22.11%。 航发动力今年以来股价涨6.09%，近5个交易日涨8.70%，近20日涨16.74%，近60日涨19.70%。 今年以来航发动力已经1次登上龙虎榜，最近一次登上龙虎榜为4月2日，当日龙虎榜 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the defense and military industry in China [6] Core Views - China's military trade market is expected to achieve new breakthroughs, with the successful establishment of a reusable rocket factory accelerating the low-orbit satellite network [2][11] - The procurement of 20 J-10CE fighter jets by Bangladesh for $2.2 billion signifies the growing recognition of Chinese military products and the potential for market expansion [10][15] - The completion of the first reusable rocket factory in Wenchang, Hainan, marks a significant advancement in commercial aerospace infrastructure, paving the way for scalable and reusable rocket development [10][17] Summary by Sections Military Trade Developments - Bangladesh plans to invest $2.2 billion to purchase 20 J-10CE fighter jets, with the total procurement cost including training and logistics expected to reach $2.2 billion [10][15] - The international competitiveness of Chinese military equipment is increasing due to enhanced technology performance and cost-effectiveness, transitioning from a focus on individual product advantages to comprehensive solution capabilities [16] Commercial Aerospace Advancements - The first reusable rocket assembly and testing factory in Wenchang, Hainan, has been completed, which will significantly enhance the production capacity and testing capabilities for reusable rockets [10][17] - The factory is expected to lower launch costs and accelerate the progress of commercial low-orbit satellite networks [17] Current Market Outlook - The military industry has stabilized recently, with a focus on domestic demand and military trade developments as key growth drivers [20] - The report highlights the importance of upstream components and key materials in supporting the lifecycle of various military equipment, indicating potential benefits from demand amplification effects [20] - The report suggests continued optimism for the military sector, with specific investment recommendations for various companies within the industry [10][20]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Aviation Power has shown a positive trend with a year-to-date increase of 3.86% and a significant rise of 15.89% over the past 60 days, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the defense and aerospace sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Aviation Power reported a revenue of 14.098 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 23.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 91.78 million yuan, down 84.57% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 4.057 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.072 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 149,900, with an average of 17,778 shares held per shareholder, a decrease of 6.03% from the previous period [2]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 73.4625 million shares, and new entrants like the Fortune China Securities Military Industry Leader ETF [3]. Stock Performance and Trading Activity - On October 13, the stock price reached 42.95 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 783 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.69% [1]. - The stock has seen significant trading activity, with net inflows of 7.4662 million yuan from main funds and notable buying and selling by large orders [1].

Group 1 - The company announced the resignation of Vice Chairman Deng Zhiwei due to job relocation, effective immediately upon submission of his resignation report on October 10, 2025 [2] - Deng Zhiwei's resignation will not affect the legal number of board members and will not impact the company's normal operations [2] - The company expressed gratitude for Deng Zhiwei's contributions during his tenure as Vice Chairman [2][4] Group 2 - The company will complete the board member replacement process in accordance with legal procedures [2] - Deng Zhiwei did not hold any shares in the company at the time of his resignation and will continue to comply with regulations regarding shareholding changes [2]

Core Points - The AG600 "Kunlong" amphibious aircraft has successfully completed the assembly and production test flight of its third unit, marking a significant milestone in the project from type certification to small-scale production [2][4] - The AG600 is China's first independently developed large special-purpose aircraft designed to meet urgent needs for forest firefighting and water rescue, and it is the largest civil amphibious aircraft in the world by takeoff weight [4] Summary by Categories Production Milestones - The third unit (1103) of the AG600 has been assembled and has successfully completed its production test flight [2] - The fourth unit (1105) has had its major components delivered to the China Aviation Industry Group's South China branch, indicating progress in the production line [2] Project Significance - The AG600 project represents a critical advancement in China's capabilities for specialized aircraft, particularly for emergency response in forest fires and water rescues [4] - The aircraft's development underscores China's commitment to enhancing its aviation technology and meeting domestic needs for disaster management [4]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry experienced a significant increase in stock prices, with a rise of 2.59% on September 30, 2023, driven by substantial net inflows of capital [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% on September 30, 2023, with 19 out of 28 sectors showing gains, particularly in non-ferrous metals and defense industries, which increased by 3.22% and 2.59% respectively [1]. - The defense industry saw a net inflow of 20.78 billion yuan, making it the top sector for capital inflow, while the non-bank financial sector led in capital outflow with 114.05 billion yuan [1]. Capital Flow Analysis - In the defense industry, 138 stocks were tracked, with 119 stocks rising and 4 hitting the daily limit up. The top net inflow stocks included AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Company with 902 million yuan, followed by Aerospace Rainbow and Guorui Technology with 226 million yuan and 176 million yuan respectively [2]. - The top stocks experiencing capital outflow included China Shipbuilding Industry with a net outflow of 550 million yuan, followed by Guangwei Composites and Guangqi Technology with outflows of 44 million yuan and 43 million yuan respectively [3]. Sector Highlights - The defense industry had a total of 80 stocks with net inflows, with 10 stocks receiving over 100 million yuan in net inflows [2]. - The defense industry also had notable stocks with significant capital outflows, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China Aviation Power Co., Ltd. experienced a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 42.38 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.904 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.73%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 112.968 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on December 23, 1993, and listed on April 8, 1996, is primarily engaged in the manufacturing of aircraft engines and related products, with 91.55% of its revenue coming from aircraft engines and derivatives, 6.17% from foreign trade exports, and 2.28% from non-aerospace products [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, one fund under Southern Fund has a significant position in China Aviation Power, specifically the Southern CSI National New Central Enterprise Technology Leading ETF (560170), which reduced its holdings by 412,800 shares in the second quarter, now holding 1.8647 million shares, accounting for 4.93% of the fund's net value, ranking as the fifth-largest holding [2] - The Southern CSI National New Central Enterprise Technology Leading ETF (560170) was established on June 21, 2023, with a latest scale of 1.456 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 21.3%, ranking 2659 out of 4220 in its category, and a one-year return of 39.37%, ranking 1801 out of 3846 [2]