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中泰证券:一季度乃至更长时间市场或呈现市场底部抬升与主线不断活跃的特征
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 00:00
中泰证券研报表示,一季度乃至更长时间市场或呈现市场底部抬升与主线不断活跃的特征:宏观环境 看,2026年我国经济或仍处于弱复苏通道。在"稳增长"与"强科技"并行的政策框架下,科技相关领域更 容易获得持续性的制度支持、财政资源倾斜以及资本市场配套政策呵护。产业层面看,新旧动能转换已 初具成效,已有一批初具规模的高科技上市公司从"政策驱动"逐步走向"业绩验证",为中长期资金参与 和持续定价提供了必要条件。2026年伴随资金入市与信心增强的趋势不断得到强化,科技板块的预期博 弈与价值发现过程,或将成为资本市场长期关注的方向之一。资金方面,市场长线资金托底,政策推动 下市场或维持交投活跃。长线资金入市,居民资金入市与资本市场政策支持力度上升为市场提供必要流 动性条件,下行风险整体可控。 ...
中泰证券:春季行情启动 板块优先配置小盘成长与双创方向
智通财经网· 2026-01-12 23:41
Group 1 - The current market spring rally characteristics are gradually emerging, with leveraged funds becoming active again since mid-December, and the proportion of financing purchases in the A-share market is rising [1][5] - The trading volume of small-cap growth stocks has been increasing since late December, indicating a shift in funds towards this sector [1][5] - The previously net outflowing thematic/industry index ETFs have turned positive this week, showing a significant net inflow trend [1][6] Group 2 - The current market rally is supported by long-term funds, with significant inflows into the A500 ETF nearing 100 billion RMB, boosting market confidence [2] - The "spring rally" is characterized by seasonal trends, typically occurring from late December to the first quarter, with an average increase of about 15% during this period [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations prioritize small-cap growth and innovation-driven sectors, suggesting a focus on small-cap innovation stocks [7] - The strategy emphasizes short-term trend tracking, participating in thematic sectors with recent fund accumulation, such as pharmaceuticals, robotics, and gaming [7] - The securities and financial technology sectors are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes and active leveraged funds, with financial technology companies being more sensitive to market fluctuations [7]
中泰证券:中低档内容出清 电影市场从“要数量”进入“要口碑”新阶段
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-12 02:11
格隆汇1月12日|中泰证券研报指出,电影大盘恢复增长,2025年11—12月高质量引进片集中上映推动 全年票房持续增长,单银幕收入探底回调,市场结构从用户、场景、价值链等多维度显现拓展空间。单 银幕收入从2012年以来呈波动下降趋势,疫情中探底,并开始恢复。此外,观影年龄持续提升,30岁以 上观众在2024年首次突破50%,用户整体消费能力增强;三线及以下城市票房占比突破40%,开拓了收 入空间;影院非票经济得到空前重视,IP后链路开发横向延伸,电影商业变现路径持续拓宽。电影市场 从"要数量"进入"要口碑"新阶段,中低档内容出清,高质量供给成电影票房核心驱动力。 ...
中泰证券:维持和铂医药-B“买入”评级 MNC合作全面深化 平台价值加速兑现
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 01:51
Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for HAPO Pharmaceutical-B (02142), highlighting its position as a key provider of innovative antibody technology globally, supported by collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies like AstraZeneca, Otsuka, Pfizer, and BMS by 2025 [1] Group 1: Collaborations with Major Pharmaceutical Companies - The collaboration with AstraZeneca involves a global strategic partnership to develop next-generation multi-specific antibody therapies for various diseases, marking a deepening of their cooperation with the establishment of an innovation lab in Beijing [2] - The partnership with Otsuka Pharmaceutical focuses on advancing the development of BCMAXCD3TCE for autoimmune diseases, showcasing the advantages of HAPO's proprietary Harbour Mice platform [3] - A non-exclusive licensing agreement with Pfizer aims to accelerate preclinical antibody discovery for various potential disease indications, expanding the scope of collaboration beyond previous ADC licensing [4] - The long-term global strategic cooperation with BMS includes a total payment of $90 million, with potential milestone payments of up to $1.035 billion, indicating a significant deepening of ties with multinational corporations [5] Group 2: Business Model and Financial Outlook - The company's unique business model is expected to yield short-term revenue visibility through upfront payments and achievable R&D milestones, enhancing short-term income [6] - Long-term revenue flexibility is anticipated through sales sharing, providing sustainable cash flow as partner products succeed in the market [6] - The profitability inflection point is deemed certain, with licensing revenues expected to improve net profit margins without substantial capital expenditures, indicating a healthy long-term financial structure [6]
中泰证券:维持和铂医药-B(02142)“买入”评级 MNC合作全面深化 平台价值加速兑现
智通财经网· 2026-01-12 01:46
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Heptares Therapeutics-B (02142), highlighting its position as a key provider of innovative antibody technology globally, with significant collaborations expected by 2025 with major pharmaceutical companies like AstraZeneca, Otsuka, Pfizer, and BMS [1] Group 1: Collaborations with Major Pharmaceutical Companies - The company has established a global strategic partnership with AstraZeneca to co-develop next-generation multi-specific antibody therapies, marking a deepening of their collaboration with the launch of the Heptares-AstraZeneca Innovation Lab in Beijing [2] - A global strategic cooperation was announced with Otsuka Pharmaceutical to advance the development of BCMAXCD3 TCE for autoimmune diseases, showcasing the advantages of Heptares' proprietary Harbour Mice platform [3] - A non-exclusive licensing agreement was signed with Pfizer to accelerate preclinical antibody discovery research, expanding the collaboration scope significantly [4] - A long-term global strategic cooperation and licensing agreement was reached with BMS, which includes a total payment of $90 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.035 billion [5] Group 2: Business Model and Financial Outlook - The company's unique business model is expected to yield short-term revenue visibility through upfront payments and achievable R&D milestones [6] - Long-term revenue flexibility is anticipated through sales sharing, providing sustainable cash flow as partner products succeed in the market [6] - The profitability inflection point is deemed certain, with licensing revenues expected to improve net profit margins without significant capital expenditures [6]
中泰证券:季节性资金流向权益市场 超长政府债发行惯性仍令债市承压
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 01:19
Group 1 - The report from Zhongtai Securities indicates that a true bull-bear transition in China's bond market requires two key policy signals: the Ministry of Finance must clearly shorten the issuance period of local special bonds or special government bonds, and the central bank must announce or implement a debt purchase plan significantly exceeding the current scale [1] - The report highlights that seasonal funds that should flow into the bond market have been "taken away" by the equity market, which is a significant source of the recent "spring fever" in the stock market, further intensifying the outflow pressure in the bond market [1] - It is projected that approximately 67 trillion yuan and 75 trillion yuan of household time deposits will mature in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Even if 10% of these funds "move," the scale will reach several trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The report identifies two main product categories where these funds are likely to flow: "fixed income +" wealth management products, which typically allocate 3%-5% of equity assets to enhance returns, and dividend-type insurance, which aims to achieve expected returns above 3.4%, with a more aggressive allocation in the stock market [1]
A股春季行情短期进入主升阶段?券商策略来了
Feng Huang Wang· 2026-01-11 13:06
Core Viewpoints - The latest strategies from top brokerages indicate a bullish sentiment in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors like technology, traditional manufacturing, and resource pricing power [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is experiencing a "rally" phase, with significant trading volume and a risk appetite resurgence, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points [4][6] - The market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory until the Spring Festival, driven by favorable macroeconomic indicators and increased participation from institutional investors [3][4][11][13] Group 2: Sector Focus - Brokerages recommend focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robotics, which are anticipated to benefit from policy support and market trends [3][7][12][14] - Traditional manufacturing and resource sectors are highlighted for their potential in pricing power enhancement, with suggestions to increase allocations in non-bank financials [2][4][8] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies emphasize a balanced approach, suggesting a mix of growth-oriented and cyclical sectors, with a focus on themes like "anti-involution" and price recovery in industries such as chemicals and metals [7][8][14] - The importance of monitoring market sentiment and performance metrics is stressed, particularly as the market enters a period of earnings announcements and potential volatility [12][13]
A股春季行情短期进入主升阶段?投资主线有哪些?十大券商策略来了
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-11 11:04
Group 1 - Major brokerages have released their latest strategic views, focusing on resource and traditional manufacturing pricing power, with a bullish outlook for the spring market [1][2] - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong PMI and inflation data, as well as increased willingness of external funds to enter the market [2][3] - The market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4100 points, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [3][4] Group 2 - The spring market is characterized by a strong performance of technology and cyclical growth sectors, with a focus on themes such as commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [4][5] - The current market environment suggests a potential for continued upward momentum, driven by liquidity and favorable policies, with a recommendation to focus on sectors like AI applications and renewable energy [6][7] - The market is expected to maintain its heat in the short term, with policy support likely to bolster investor confidence and attract various types of capital [8][9] Group 3 - The "fifteen five" planning year is anticipated to bring focus to new productivity sectors, with technology innovation and growth sectors expected to see significant opportunities [12] - Key investment themes include industrial metals and chemicals, driven by price recovery expectations and structural improvements in supply and demand [12] - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, supported by systemic policy deployments and increasing capital inflows [11][12]
中泰证券:短期内市场或延续上行趋势
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-11 07:54
中泰证券发布研究报告称,短期内市场或延续上行趋势,遇震荡行情,投资者可把握逢低布局机遇,抓 住春节前的重要窗口期配置价值。从板块配置角度看,机器人方向在本轮拉升过程中持续获得资金净流 入,板块上涨并未出现明显资金背离,趋势尚未结束,仍是当前阶段最重点建议关注的主线方向。商业 航天板块资金流入态势同样强劲,但当前交易拥挤度已处于历史高位,板块运行或由前期主升阶段逐步 转向第二阶段的"主题扩散"行情,操作上需更加注重节奏与分化。此外,可控核聚变、体育与消费者服 务、有色金属等方向亦出现资金持续流入迹象,若1月中旬市场局部出现震荡调整,上述板块有望成为 值得重点布局的结构性方向。 ...
中泰证券:开年市场新高后或如何演绎?
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-01-11 05:50
Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term, with opportunities for investors to strategically position themselves before the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Market Performance - The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with major indices like the Wind All A, CSI 300, and CSI 2000 rising by 5.11%, 2.79%, and 6.54% respectively this week [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 3.82%, surpassing 4100 points and achieving a 16-day consecutive increase, marking a significant trend [2]. - Daily trading volume has increased, with the average daily turnover reaching 2.85 trillion yuan, and a single-day turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating a strong influx of new capital [2]. Sector Analysis - The robotics sector has seen continuous net inflows, indicating it remains a key focus area for investment [1]. - The commercial aerospace sector is also experiencing strong capital inflows, but its trading density is at historical highs, suggesting a shift from a primary upward phase to a "theme diffusion" phase [1][3]. - Other sectors such as controllable nuclear fusion, sports and consumer services, and non-ferrous metals are showing signs of sustained capital inflows, making them potential structural investment opportunities [1]. Industry Highlights - The technology sector has been a strong market driver, with significant gains in media (13.11%), computer (8.50%), and electronics (7.74%) industries [3]. - The defense and military industry has surged by 13.63%, influenced by geopolitical events and the ongoing development of commercial aerospace [3]. - Non-ferrous metals have also risen by 8.56%, supported by strong demand and strategic reserves [3]. Future Outlook - The upward trend in indices is likely to continue as long as trading volume remains robust, with average daily turnover increasing by 51.63% compared to the previous month [4]. - The market is expected to focus on technology sectors and resource demand, with a potential shift towards less crowded segments within technology [4]. - The growth of northbound and leveraged funds is providing strong momentum for the market, with margin financing balances steadily breaking previous highs [4].