Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 35.54 CNY, up from the previous target of 33.83 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The report highlights that CNOOC's performance exceeded market expectations due to rising oil and gas prices, increased production, and lower per-barrel costs. The company's high capital expenditure supports future growth [1][2]. - The report projects an increase in annual EPS to 3.08/3.33/3.43 CNY for the upcoming years, compared to the previous forecast of 2.85/3.12/3.21 CNY [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, CNOOC achieved revenue of 111.468 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.7 billion CNY, up 23.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a net production of 180.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2024, reflecting a 9.9% increase year-on-year [1]. Price and Cost Analysis - The average Brent crude oil price in Q1 2024 was 83.39 USD per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.05 USD per barrel. The average realized price for CNOOC's crude oil was 78.75 USD per barrel, with a slight decrease in natural gas prices [1]. - The report notes a decrease in per-barrel costs to 27.59 CNY, down 2.2% year-on-year, attributed to effective cost control and the orderly advancement of new projects [1]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Prospects - CNOOC's capital expenditure in Q1 2024 was 29.01 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, indicating a commitment to growth through new projects [1]. - The report emphasizes that high capital expenditure will ensure the company's growth trajectory moving forward [1]. Comparative Valuation - The report compares CNOOC's valuation metrics with peers such as China Shenhua, Sinopec, and PetroChina, noting that CNOOC's PE ratio is projected at 9.13 for 2024, which is competitive within the industry [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [30] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q1 2024, with total revenue reaching 111.468 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.08%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 39.719 billion yuan, up 23.7% [33][24] - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience with a notable increase in oil and gas production and realized oil prices, outperforming the fluctuations in international oil prices [28][29] - Cost control measures have been effectively implemented, resulting in a decrease in the main cost per barrel of oil to 27.59 USD, down 2.23% year-on-year, reinforcing the company's competitive advantage in the industry [29] - Future oil prices are expected to stabilize between 80-100 USD per barrel, with the company targeting net oil and gas production of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2024, indicating a steady growth trajectory [29][30] Financial Summary - The company forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 3.26 yuan, 3.59 yuan, and 3.76 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.84X, 8.03X, and 7.67X based on the closing price on April 25, 2024 [30] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44% in 2023, with total dividends amounting to about 59.5 billion HKD [37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" with a target price of 29.92 CNY [3][10]. Core Views - CNOOC's oil and gas production growth in Q1 exceeded the annual target, with a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [10]. - The company has successfully launched new projects and increased capital expenditure by 17.3% year-on-year [11]. - CNOOC's cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives have led to a continuous enhancement in value creation capabilities [10]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, CNOOC achieved revenue of 1114.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 397.2 billion CNY, up 23.7% year-on-year [10]. - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while natural gas prices decreased by 7.7% [11]. - The company reported a sales gross margin of 53.4%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 35.6% [11]. Production and Capital Expenditure - CNOOC's total oil and gas production in Q1 2024 was 180.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, surpassing the annual target of 700-720 million barrels [10]. - Capital expenditure for Q1 2024 was 290.1 billion CNY, with exploration spending slightly decreasing by 1.4% year-on-year [11]. - The company successfully brought new oil field projects into production, contributing to a peak production rate of 30,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day [11]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 4450.00 billion CNY, 4580.54 billion CNY, and 4658.63 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.81%, 2.93%, and 1.70% respectively [10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1419.35 billion CNY, 1496.53 billion CNY, and 1568.10 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 2.98 CNY, 3.15 CNY, and 3.30 CNY [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 29.92 CNY [4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2024, with revenue of 111.47 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 39.72 billion CNY, up 23.7% year-on-year [2][3]. - Oil and gas production exceeded expectations, with a total output of 180.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, representing a 9.9% year-on-year increase, surpassing the annual target of 700-720 million barrels [2][9]. - The company successfully launched new projects and increased capital expenditures by 17.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing investment in growth [3][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 445 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 6.81% [10]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 141.94 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.61% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 2.98 CNY [10]. Production and Pricing - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 6.2% year-on-year, while the average price for natural gas decreased by 7.7% [3][9]. - The company achieved a sales gross margin of 53.4%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][9]. Capital Expenditure and Projects - Capital expenditures reached 29.01 billion CNY in Q1 2024, with significant increases in development and production spending [3][9]. - New discoveries and successful evaluations of oil and gas structures were reported, indicating a positive outlook for future production [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company has established a strategic plan for three trillion-cubic-meter gas zones, with clear production increase pathways. The South China Sea gas zone, Bohai gas zone, and the land-based E'erduosi-Qinshui gas zone are projected to have proven reserves of one trillion cubic meters each. The South China Sea gas zone is expected to be completed around 2025, the land-based E'erduosi-Qinshui gas zone by 2028, and the Bohai gas zone by 2030 [2][21][40]. Summary by Relevant Sections Natural Gas Demand and Consumption - China's natural gas demand is expected to maintain a rapid growth rate, with consumption projected to peak around 2040, reaching between 422 billion to 751 billion cubic meters [20][39]. The average realized price of natural gas for the company in 2023 was approximately $7.98 per thousand cubic feet, equivalent to about ¥2.00 per cubic meter [66]. Industrial and Residential Use - Natural gas is primarily used in industrial applications such as metallurgy, ceramics, and food processing, where it offers advantages like rapid heating and high-temperature control. The residential gas consumption is closely linked to urbanization, with the urbanization rate expected to reach 70% by 2030, driving demand for natural gas [7][8]. Transportation Sector - The LNG heavy-duty truck market is showing significant growth, with sales reaching 152,000 units in 2023, a 307% increase year-on-year. The penetration rate of LNG in heavy-duty trucks reached 16.7% [11]. The economic advantages of LNG over diesel are evident, with substantial fuel cost savings projected [13]. Power Generation - The demand for natural gas in power generation is expected to grow rapidly due to the transition to low-carbon energy sources. By 2025, the demand for natural gas in power generation is anticipated to reach 80 billion cubic meters [16]. The competitiveness of gas-fired power generation is expected to improve significantly as natural gas prices stabilize [36]. Chemical Industry - The chemical sector's natural gas consumption is expected to grow slowly due to policy restrictions. However, the development of hydrogen energy is likely to drive natural gas consumption in this sector [17][18]. Exploration and Production - The company has made significant discoveries in the South China Sea, with proven natural gas reserves exceeding 8 trillion cubic meters across three major basins. The Bohai Sea is also a critical area for the company's natural gas production and reserves [43][44]. The company has established production bases in the Ordos Basin and is developing technologies for coalbed methane and tight gas exploration [27]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of ¥149.8 billion, ¥156.4 billion, and ¥163.3 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of ¥3.15, ¥3.29, and ¥3.43, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on these projections [69].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 29.97 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance with low-cost production and increased reserves, exceeding expectations. The net production of oil and gas reached approximately 680 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase, and continued to grow in Q1 2024 [4][5]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong competitive position due to low oil production costs and robust capital expenditures, which are projected to support reserve additions and production growth [4][5]. - The company has a solid cash flow and a commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 43.6% in 2023 [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 422,230 million CNY - 2023A: 416,609 million CNY (yoy -1%) - 2024E: 460,009 million CNY (yoy +10%) - 2025E: 490,495 million CNY (yoy +7%) - 2026E: 515,320 million CNY (yoy +5%) [2]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 141,700 million CNY - 2023A: 123,843 million CNY (yoy -13%) - 2024E: 150,169 million CNY (yoy +21%) - 2025E: 154,485 million CNY (yoy +3%) - 2026E: 160,464 million CNY (yoy +4%) [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 2.60 CNY - 2024: 3.16 CNY - 2025: 3.25 CNY - 2026: 3.37 CNY [2]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 19% - 2024E: 18% - 2025E: 16% - 2026E: 14% [2]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024E: 9.5 - 2025E: 9.2 - 2026E: 8.9 [2]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2024E: 1.7 - 2025E: 1.5 - 2026E: 1.3 [2]. Key Events - The company reported a revenue of 1,114.7 million CNY in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 397.2 million CNY, up 23.7% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company achieved a net production of approximately 1.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2024, reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - The company’s capital expenditures for 2023 were 129.6 billion CNY, a 26.4% increase year-on-year, with Q1 2024 capital expenditures at approximately 29 billion CNY, up 17.3% year-on-year [4][5].

华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 未经许可，禁止转载 大连理工大学工学学士、硕士，香港中文大学经济学硕士，曾任职于西部证券研发中心，2022 年加入华创证券研究所。 研究员：吴宇 同济大学管理学硕士。2022 年加入华创证券研究所。 中国海油发布 2024 年一季度报告，2024 年一季度实现营收 1114.68 亿元，同 比+14.08%，实现归母净利润 397.19 亿元，同比+23.69%。 评论： 量价齐升，成本优化，利润创单季度新高。收入端，24Q1 公司保持了稳健增 长，石油液体/天然气分别实现营收 782.03/117.74 亿元，同比+23.6%/+7.9%， 从实现价格上看，虽然天然气实现价格同比-7.7%至 7.69 美元/千立方英尺，但 是在布伦特原油均价下滑 0.4 美元/桶的情况下，石油液体平均实现价格同比 提升 6.2%至 78.75 美元/桶；从产量上看，公司保持了一贯的增产趋势，在国 内、圭亚那、加拿大等地油气田投产的贡献下，公司实现油气净产量 180.1 百 万桶油当量，同比+9.9%。成本端，24Q ...

[Table_Page] 季报点评|基础化工 [Table_Title] 中国海油(600938.SH)/中国海洋石 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|--------------------------| | | | | 公司评级 [Table_Invest] | 买入 -A/ 买入 -H | | 当前价格 | 29.97 元 /19.68 港元 | | 合理价值 | 32.8 元 /21.52 港元 | | 前次评级 | 买入 / 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-04-28 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 元/股。给予公司 23 年业绩 10 倍 PE，对应 A 股合理价值 32.8 元/股， 按照 A/H 股溢价率，对应 H 股 21.52 港元/股，均维持"买入"评级。 ⚫ 风险提示。油气价格波动风险；宏观经济波动；汇率波动风险。 [Table_Contacts] 证券研究报告 油(00883.HK) 24Q1 业绩超预期，看好能源巨头高成长高弹性 ⚫ 24Q1 业绩大超预期。据公司财报，24Q1 公司实现营收 1114.68 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market index [19][59][66]. Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1114.68 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 397.19 billion RMB, up 23.7% year-on-year and 51.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking a historical high [1][20][60]. - The company’s total net production in Q1 2024 was 180.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 9.9% increase year-on-year, driven by new project contributions [20][21]. - The average realized oil price in Q1 2024 was 78.75 USD per barrel, reflecting a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while the average gas price was 7.69 USD per thousand cubic feet, down 7.7% year-on-year [20][61]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company reported a significant increase in both revenue and net profit in Q1 2024, with a revenue of 1114.68 billion RMB and a net profit of 397.19 billion RMB, achieving a sales gross margin of 53.4% [1][20][60]. Capital Expenditure and Exploration - Capital expenditure in Q1 2024 was approximately 290.1 billion RMB, up 17.3% year-on-year, with successful evaluations of new oil and gas structures both domestically and internationally [21][63]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 4454.76 billion RMB, 4682.73 billion RMB, and 4972.03 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 1422.28 billion RMB, 1502.26 billion RMB, and 1616.30 billion RMB for the same years [43][66].

公司报告 | 季报点评 中国海油 2024Q1 业绩显著超预期 产量超预期增长，主要来自南美项目产量增加 成本方面，2024Q1 桶油主要成本 27.59 美金/桶，比去年同期略降 0.6 美金 /桶，主要来自汇率变化。 Q1 净利润 397 亿，业绩显著超预期 2024Q1 归母净利润 397 亿元，同比+24%，显著超出市场预期。增长来源 简单拆分：约 32 亿来自增量因素，约 28 亿来自原油实现折价改善因素， 约 12 亿来自汇率因素，超预期的点或来自于上述三方面。经营现金流净额 600 亿，投资支付现金 285 亿，自由现金流简单估算 315 亿（同比+36 亿）。 2024 年 Q1 净产量 180MMBOE，同比+10%，超出此前预期的 7%。主要得 益于南美洲原油产量同比+37%，来自圭亚那 Payara 项目（去年底投产）和 巴西 Buzios5 项目（去年中期投产），以及绥中旅大项目今年一季度投产。 成本下降主要得益于汇率变化 实现油价较往年同期折价有所收窄 2024Q1 原油实现价格 79 美元/桶，比布油折价约 3 美金/桶，相比去年同 期折价 8 美金/桶显著改善，基本回到历史正常折 ...