2024 年 03 月 25 日 证券研究报告 中国海油(600938) CAPEX 适配产量增长，降本增效成果显著 ➢ 油气净产量及净证实储量连续 6 年稳步提升 ➢ 资本开支适配产量增长，新增项目稳步推进 考虑到国际油价中枢有望维持在中高位，公司增储上产稳步推进，我们预 计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 4375.41/4580.54/4658.63 亿元，同 比+5.02%/+4.69%/+1.70%,归母净利润分别为 1377.52/1486.58/1553.04 亿元，EPS 分别为 2.90/3.13/3.26 元/股，建议持续关注。 风险提示：中东地缘政治事件风险；石油和天然气价格波动风险；石油和 天然气需求恢复不及预期风险。 作者 行 业： 石油石化/油气开采Ⅱ 投资评级： 当前价格： 27.31 元 目标价格： 公司发布 2023 年年报，全年实现营业收入 4166 亿元（同比-1%），归母净 利润 1238 亿元（同比-13%）。其中 2023Q4 单季实现营业收入 1098 亿元（同 比-1%，环比-4%），归母净利润 262 亿元（同比-20%，环比-23%）。 ➢ 技术助 ...

公司研究 [Table_Title] 持续夯实增储上产，高盈利+高分红价值凸显 ——中国海油（600938）点评报告 事件: 2023Q4 单季度，公司实现营业收入 1097.92 亿元，同比-1.2%，环比 -4.3%；实现归母净利润为 262 亿元，同比-20.4%，环比-22.7%；扣非 后归母净利润 294.8 亿元；经营活动现金流净额为 507 亿元。销售毛利 率为 50.7%，同比+1.6pct，环比+3.9pct；销售净利率为 24.1%，同比降 低 5.6pct，环比降低 2.5pct。 克服油价震荡业绩维持稳健，桶油主要成本同比下降 5.1% 桶油作业成本方面，2023 年公司桶油主要成本为 28.83 美元/桶油当量， 同比-5.1%，其中作业费用同比下降 2.6%，主要是汇率变动和产量增长 的综合影响，折旧、折耗和摊销同比下降 4.1%，主要是产量结构变化及 相关报告 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 汇率变动的综合影响；除所得税以外的其他税项同比下降 10.7%，主要 是油价下降的影响。公司坚持实施提质降本增效，桶油作业费用处于国 际同业前列，进一步夯实成本竞争优势。 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 416.609 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 123.843 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling oil prices [1][6]. - The company has successfully implemented cost reduction and production increase strategies, achieving a net oil and gas production of 678 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, marking a historical high for five consecutive years [1][6]. - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio, proposing a final dividend of 0.66 HKD per share, resulting in a total dividend of 1.25 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 43.6%, higher than the previous year's 42.7% [1][6]. - The company has intensified exploration efforts, discovering nine new fields and successfully evaluating 22 oil and gas structures, achieving a reserve replacement ratio of 180% [1][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 2022A: 422,230, 2023A: 416,609, 2024E: 449,172, 2025E: 475,714, 2026E: 503,922 [7]. - Net profit (million yuan): 2022A: 141,700, 2023A: 123,843, 2024E: 135,154, 2025E: 143,385, 2026E: 151,920 [7]. - Earnings per share (yuan): 2022A: 2.98, 2023A: 2.60, 2024E: 2.84, 2025E: 3.01, 2026E: 3.19 [7]. - The target price has been adjusted to 28.40 yuan, up from the previous target of 20.65 yuan [2].

证 研 告 总市值（亿元） 12990 报 总股本（百万股） 47567 52 周价格范围（元） 16.47-30.58 日均成交额（百万元） 821.82 司 究 储量产量再创新高，降本增效助力长期发展 中国海油发布 2023 年年度报告：公司实现营业收入 4166.09 亿元，同比-1%；实现归母净利润 1238.43 亿元，同比-13%。 2023 年 Q4 实现营业收入 1097.92 亿元，同比-1.2%，环比4.3%，实现归母净利润 261.98 亿元，同比-20.4%，环比22.7%。公司全年资产减值及跌价准备为 35.23 亿元，同比增 加 28.46 亿元，主要受到北美地区油气资产计提减值准备的 影响；除所得税外其他税金为 243.31 亿元，同比增加 55.53 亿元，主要受确认矿业权出让收益的影响。剔除补缴矿产特 别收益和一次性北美地区减值等影响，公司业绩符合预期。 ▌ 油气产销量新高，油价下跌背景维持优秀业绩 2023 年全球油价下滑，公司平均实现油价 77.96 美元/桶， 同比-19.3%，平均实现气价 7.98 美元/千立方英尺，同比7%。2023 年公司净产量达 678 百万桶 ...

桶油成本持续下降，积极推动增储上产 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|-------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month target price maintained at 28.38 CNY [6][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a 2023 revenue of 416.6 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.33% year-on-year, while the net profit was 123.8 billion CNY, which met expectations [10][12]. - The oil and gas production for 2023 reached 678 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), representing an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, with crude oil production up by 8.1% and natural gas by 11% [10]. - The company has maintained a competitive barrel oil cost of 28.8 USD/barrel, with a reserve replacement ratio of 180%, ensuring a reserve life of slightly over 10 years [10]. - The forecast for production growth from 2024 to 2026 is set at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6-7%, with 2025 expected to be a peak production year [10][11]. Financial Summary - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 209.7 billion CNY, with free cash flow reaching 88.9 billion CNY, which was utilized for dividends and debt repayment [4][11]. - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt by 14.2 billion CNY, resulting in a capital debt ratio of 15.2% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 2.98 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.53 [5][6]. - The projected net profits for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted to 139.7 billion CNY and 157.7 billion CNY, respectively, with a new projection for 2026 at 162.3 billion CNY [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is set to launch several significant new projects in 2024, including oil and gas development projects in China and Brazil, which are expected to enhance reserves and production [1]. - The company has increased its capital expenditure for exploration and development, with a budget of 1250-1350 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth strategy aimed at boosting oil and gas output [22][35]. - The company achieved a record high in net proven reserves in 2023, reaching 6784 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a replacement rate of 180% [34]. - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, proposing a total dividend of 1.25 HKD per share for 2023, maintaining a payout ratio of 43.6% [10][21]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 4166 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1238 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company maintained a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow of 2097 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.0% increase year-on-year [6]. - The average realized oil price in 2023 was 77.96 USD per barrel, a decrease of 19.3% compared to the previous year [31]. Production and Cost Efficiency - The company achieved a total oil and gas production of 678 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, marking an 8.7% increase year-on-year [31]. - The company has successfully reduced its main oil production cost to 28.83 USD per barrel of oil equivalent, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year [8]. - The company has focused on enhancing drilling efficiency, achieving a 19% improvement in average drilling day efficiency from 2019 to 2023 [32]. Future Outlook - The company has set production targets of 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2024 and 780-800 million barrels for 2025, indicating a growth rate of 4.7% and 11.3% respectively [22][36]. - The report anticipates a decline in oil prices in 2024 due to a more relaxed supply-demand balance, but expects production growth to drive long-term performance [36].

Board Composition and Governance - As of December 31, 2023, the board consists of eight directors, with four being independent non-executive directors, representing 50% of the board, exceeding the requirement of at least one-third as per the Hong Kong Stock Exchange rules[6]. - The nomination committee, composed of two independent non-executive directors and the non-executive chairman, held two meetings during the year to review the independence and qualifications of board members[10][23]. - The company emphasizes the importance of continuous professional development for directors, arranging training sessions on corporate governance and compliance during the reporting period[15]. - The board meets at least four times a year, with an average of one meeting per quarter, ensuring adequate oversight and decision-making[25]. - The company has achieved gender diversity on the board, with two female members, fulfilling the requirement for gender representation[5]. - The board regularly reviews its composition and diversity, considering factors such as cultural background and industry experience when selecting independent non-executive directors[5]. - The company’s independent non-executive directors possess extensive experience in legal, economic, financial, or investment fields, contributing significantly to strategic decision-making[3]. - The board has established a framework for evaluating the independence of its non-executive directors, ensuring they can provide unbiased opinions[8]. - The board has a structured approach to ensure that all directors contribute adequately to their roles, with regular assessments of their performance and time commitment[26]. - Independent non-executive directors actively participated in meetings and provided professional opinions to enhance corporate governance and business development[83]. - The company has undergone significant changes in its board composition, with multiple resignations and appointments effective from May 31, 2023, and June 30, 2023[85]. - The company has appointed new independent non-executive directors and committee members as part of its governance structure changes[85]. - The company has confirmed that there were no other changes to the directors' information apart from those disclosed in the annual report[86]. - The company is committed to compliance with the Corporate Governance Code and has made changes to its board of directors during the reporting period[114]. Financial Performance - The basic earnings per share for 2023 is CNY 2.60, a decrease of 14% compared to CNY 3.03 in 2022[50]. - The diluted earnings per share for 2023 is also CNY 2.60, reflecting the same 14% decrease from 2022[50]. - The weighted average return on equity for 2023 is 19.55%, down by 6.45 percentage points from 26.00% in 2022[50]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2023 is CNY 32,113 million, showing an increase from CNY 31,648 million in Q2 2022[54]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses for Q3 2023 is CNY 33,382 million, compared to CNY 29,482 million in Q4 2022[54]. - The company's operating cash flow for Q2 2023 is CNY 47,650 million, an increase from CNY 51,968 million in Q1 2023[54]. - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was RMB 416.609 billion, a decrease of 1% compared to RMB 422.230 billion in 2022[145]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was RMB 123.843 billion, down 13% from RMB 141.700 billion in 2022[145]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses for 2023 was RMB 125.188 billion, a decrease of 11% compared to RMB 140.250 billion in 2022[145]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 was RMB 209.743 billion, an increase of 2% from RMB 205.574 billion in 2022[145]. - As of the end of 2023, the net assets attributable to shareholders were RMB 666.586 billion, reflecting a 12% increase from RMB 597.182 billion at the end of 2022[145]. - Total assets at the end of 2023 reached RMB 1,005.598 billion, an 8% increase from RMB 929.031 billion at the end of 2022[145]. Risk Management and Compliance - The internal audit function has evaluated the effectiveness of the company's risk management and internal control systems, finding no significant deficiencies[39]. - The company has established procedures for handling insider information to comply with relevant laws and regulations[37]. - The board confirmed its responsibility to ensure the establishment and maintenance of an effective risk management, internal control, and compliance management system[61]. - The company adopted ISO31000:2018 and GBT24353-2022 as guidelines for risk management, integrating ESG risk management into its regular risk management processes[62]. - The company has outlined potential business development risks and uncertainties in its annual report, emphasizing the importance of risk management[187]. - The company has established compliance procedures to ensure adherence to applicable laws and regulations, with oversight from the board and senior management[199]. Shareholder Engagement and Communication - The company maintains an investor relations department to facilitate communication with shareholders and investors, responding actively to inquiries[77]. - The company conducts annual reviews of its shareholder communication policy to ensure its effectiveness[78]. - In 2023, the company held its annual general meeting using a combination of in-person and video conferencing, providing sufficient notice to shareholders[79]. - The annual general meeting held on May 31, 2023, approved 11 resolutions with no rejections[110]. - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining ongoing dialogue with shareholders, particularly during annual general meetings[105]. - The company will issue notices for special general meetings as required by shareholders under the relevant stock exchange rules[108]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company has implemented comprehensive environmental protection measures throughout the project lifecycle, including environmental risk assessments and pollution control strategies[183]. - The company is committed to achieving "increased production without increased pollution" or "increased production with reduced pollution" in its operations[183]. - The company has established a special fund for environmental protection from the decommissioning costs to restore marine ecological environments[183]. - The company’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) report is available for stakeholders to review significant environmental issues impacting business performance and future development[184]. - The company continues to comply with laws and regulations regarding employee welfare, including retirement plans and medical insurance[185]. - As of December 31, 2023, the company has implemented a "14th Five-Year" energy-saving and carbon reduction action plan to align with national carbon peak and neutrality goals[198]. - The company emphasizes environmental protection in oil and gas extraction, contributing to national pollution prevention efforts[197]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% from 2022 to 2024, with an absolute dividend value expected to be no less than HKD 0.70 per share (including tax) regardless of operational performance[93]. - Future dividend payments will depend on factors such as future earnings, capital requirements, and financial condition[121]. - The company’s ability to pay dividends will also depend on cash flows from subsidiaries and associates[121]. - The company has ensured compliance with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Rules and has made necessary adjustments to its dividend distribution policy[93]. Audit and Remuneration - The remuneration committee is responsible for reviewing and determining the compensation packages for executive directors and senior management[48]. - The remuneration committee held five meetings in fiscal year 2023 to evaluate the performance of executive directors and review service agreements[74]. - The audit fees for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, totaled RMB 2.98 million, while for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, they increased to RMB 3.48 million[120]. - The total fees for tax compliance, tax consulting, and tax planning services provided by auditors amounted to RMB 93.1 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, and increased to RMB 103.3 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023[91]. Company Overview - The company was established in August 1999 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in February 2001[171]. - The company is the largest offshore oil and gas producer in China and one of the largest independent exploration and production companies globally[171]. - The company has core operational areas in Bohai Sea, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea, and East China Sea[171]. - The company’s stock is included in the Hang Seng Index since July 2001[171]. - The company has expanded its asset distribution across Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Oceania, and Europe[171]. - The company’s A-shares were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on April 21, 2022[171]. - The company’s CEO is Zhou Xinhai[172]. Production and Reserves - As of December 31, 2023, the company has net proven reserves of approximately 6.78 billion barrels of oil equivalent[171]. - The average daily net production for the year reached 1,857,619 barrels of oil equivalent[171]. - The net oil liquid production in China increased from 726,866 barrels per day in 2019 to 981,748 barrels per day in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 35%[189]. - The net natural gas production in China rose from 987.9 million cubic feet per day in 2019 to 1,747.1 million cubic feet per day in 2023, marking an increase of about 77%[189]. - The total net oil liquid production across all regions reached 1,421,053 barrels per day in 2023, up from 1,095,751 barrels per day in 2019, reflecting a growth of approximately 30%[189]. - The company’s overseas net oil liquid production increased from 368,886 barrels per day in 2019 to 439,305 barrels per day in 2023, an increase of approximately 19%[189].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [14][26][43] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 416.6 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 1.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 123.8 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [5][14] - The company has confirmed net reserves of 678.4 million barrels of oil equivalent, with a replacement rate of 180% and a stable reserve life of over 10 years [19][35] - The company plans to increase capital expenditures, with a target of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2024, following a capital expenditure of 129.6 billion yuan in 2023 [35][43] Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 454.6 billion yuan, 482.3 billion yuan, and 497.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9.1%, 6.1%, and 3.2% [3][14] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 146.8 billion yuan, 156.4 billion yuan, and 163.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18.6%, 6.5%, and 4.5% respectively [14][43] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.09 yuan, 3.29 yuan, and 3.43 yuan for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [14][43] Production and Cost Management - The actual net production for 2023 was 678 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, with specific increases in oil and gas production [19][35] - The average cost per barrel of oil equivalent was 28.83 USD, a decrease of 5.1% from the previous year [38][40] - The company has successfully discovered new oil fields, including the Qinhuangdao 27-3 oil field, which has a geological reserve of 104 million tons [10][35] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 209.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year, with a proposed dividend of 0.66 HKD per share [41][43] - The total dividend payout for the year was approximately 54 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 43.6% [41][43]

2.《中国海油公司点评：稀缺央企 , 再超预期!》,2023.8.18 3.《中国海油公司点评：稀缺央企资产再显本色!》, 2023.4.27 图表 26: 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 3 内容目录 1 油气产储量再创新高，征收矿业权出让收益不改业绩稳健预期： 2023 全年公司净证实油气资产储量为 67.8 亿桶油当量，同比增 加 8.65%。公司油气产量持续维持较高增速，储采比维持较高水 平，公司2023年油气总产量为6.78亿桶油当量，同比增加8.65%。 2023 年公司原油、天然气储采比分别为 9.14、10.63，分别同比 +0.30/-0.88，持续维持在较高水平。此外，2023 年公司除所得税 外其他税金为 243.31 亿元，相较于 2022 年增长 55.5 亿元，主要 为征收矿业权出让收益影响，整体符合预期。 资本支出持续维持较高水平，公司未来成长确定性强：2024 年公 司勘探开发资本支出指引为 1250-1350 亿元，同比增加 1.63%。 2024 年公司预计将有众多新项目投产，主要包括中国海域的绥中 36-1/旅大 5-2 油田二次调整开发项目、渤中 19-2 油田开发项目以 及 ...