1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The international three major institutions (IEA, EIA, OPEC) have adjusted their forecasts for global crude oil supply, demand, and inventory in 2025 in their June reports. The average forecast for inventory change is flat compared to last month, while the supply forecasts have increased, and the demand forecasts have mixed changes. Non - OECD countries, represented by China, are expected to be the main contributors to the global crude oil demand growth in 2025 [2][99][111]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 global crude oil inventory changes to be +110, +82, and - 132 barrels per day respectively, with changes of -10, -5, and +15 barrels per day compared to May 2025 forecasts. The average forecast for 2025 inventory change is +20 barrels per day, unchanged from last month's average [2]. 3.2 Global Crude Oil Supply 3.2.1 Global Crude Oil Supply Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil supply to be 10490, 10434, and 10382 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 190, 159, and 147 barrels per day compared to 2024. Compared to May 2025 forecasts, the increases are 30, 22, and 4 barrels per day respectively [16]. 3.2.2 Global Major Regional Crude Oil Supply Situations - **Three - institution Regional Supply Increment Forecasts**: IEA expects the 2025 global crude oil supply increment to be concentrated in OPEC, American OECD countries, and Latin American countries; EIA expects it to be in North American and Central & South American countries; OPEC expects it to be in DoC and American OECD countries [29][31][35]. - **OPEC+**: In May 2025, the total crude oil production of 12 OPEC countries averaged 2702 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 18.3 barrels per day, due to production changes in Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. The total remaining capacity of OPEC+ is 619 barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 16 barrels per day [37][41]. - **Russia**: In May 2025, Russia's total export volume was 730 barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 30 barrels per day [54]. - **USA**: EIA predicts that the average crude oil production in the US in 2025 will be 1341 barrels per day, an increase of 21 barrels per day compared to 2024 and unchanged from the May 2025 forecast. As of June 2024, the total production of the seven major shale oil producing regions in the US was 985 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 barrels per day; the shale oil production in the Permian region was 619 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 1.8 barrels per day [63][69]. 3.3 Global Crude Oil Demand 3.3.1 Global Crude Oil Demand Overview - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict 2025 crude oil demand to be 10380, 10353, and 10513 barrels per day respectively, an increase of 80, 79, and 138 barrels per day compared to 2024. Compared to May 2025 forecasts, the changes are -10, -19, and +14 barrels per day respectively. Non - OECD countries represented by China are expected to be the main contributors to the demand increment, while OECD countries' demand growth is expected to be weak [99][111]. 3.3.2 Global Different Petroleum Product Demand Situations - IEA expects the demand for chemical oil to recover significantly in 2025. Globally, the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline is expected to increase by 13, 4, and 12 barrels per day respectively compared to 2024; the demand for LPG and ethane, and naphtha in the chemical product sector will increase by 30 and 20 barrels per day respectively. In China, the demand for chemical oil is also expected to recover, with changes in the demand for aviation kerosene, diesel, and gasoline being +2, -3, and -13 barrels per day respectively, and the demand for LPG and ethane, and naphtha increasing by 6 and 15 barrels per day respectively [117][119]. 3.4 Related Listed Companies - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Development Co., Ltd. (600968.SH). Companies to be concerned about include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3].

Group 1 - The Cathay Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index Fund (QDII) C has experienced a decline of 0.07% on July 1, with a latest net value of 1.13 yuan, marking a continuous drop for five trading days and a cumulative decline of 1.8% over the period [1] - The fund was established on January 1, 2025, with an initial scale of 0.06 billion yuan and has achieved a cumulative return of 13.34% since its inception [1] Group 2 - Current fund manager Zhang Jing holds a bachelor's degree in finance from the University of International Business and Economics and an MBA from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, with extensive international experience in asset management [2] - The other fund manager, Deng Yakun, has a master's degree in computational finance from Carnegie Mellon University and has been with Cathay Securities since March 2021, focusing on quantitative investment [2] Group 3 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten holdings of the Cathay Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index Fund (QDII) C account for a total of 44.28%, with significant positions in COSCO Shipping Holdings (9.76%), Yancoal Australia (5.88%), and Orient Overseas International (3.94%) among others [3]

Group 1 - The core index of the petrochemical industry, the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, rose by 0.37% to 1009.79 points with a trading volume of 11.339 billion yuan on July 1 [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 2.08%, but it has decreased by 2.96% over the last three months and by 4.36% year-to-date [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in key industries such as steel, shipping, petrochemicals, textiles, light industry, equipment, and logistics, with a base date of December 31, 2008, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index include Wanhua Chemical (9.98%), China Petroleum (9.61%), China Petrochemical (8.1%), and others [1] - The index's market composition shows that 70.15% of holdings are from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, while 29.85% are from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1] - In terms of industry composition, raw materials account for 75.54% and energy for 24.46% of the index holdings [1] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Public funds tracking the petrochemical industry include various funds from Huaxia and E Fund, such as Huaxia China Securities Petrochemical Industry Link A and E Fund China Securities Petrochemical Industry ETF [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the second in Huatai Futures' series on the listing of pure benzene, focusing on the domestic supply pattern of pure benzene in China [3] Group 2: China's Pure Benzene Capacity Investment - China still mainly uses petroleum benzene. Before 2019, the proportion of petroleum benzene capacity in benzene capacity was around 65%. After the wave of private large refinery startups in 2019, it has now risen to 75% [11] - Petroleum benzene is the main driver of the growth in the pure benzene supply. In 2025, the growth rate of benzene capacity is expected to be 7.1%, with petroleum benzene at 8.1% and hydrogenated benzene at only 4.2% [12] - The development of China's pure benzene capacity has gone through four stages: slow growth from the 1960s to the 1980s, rapid development in the 1980s, slowdown after 2010, and rapid expansion since 2019 [14][15] - In 2025, there is still pressure on pure benzene capacity investment. The growth rate of new petroleum benzene capacity is 8.1%, slightly higher than 6.6% in 2024. Attention should be paid to the startup rhythm of Yulong in the third quarter [16] - China's petroleum benzene production mainly comes from catalytic reforming, ethylene cracking, and toluene disproportionation. The proportion of catalytic reforming capacity has decreased to 44%, while toluene disproportionation has reached around 22%, and ethylene cracking has dropped to 23% [20] Group 3: China's Pure Benzene Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene supply is mainly dominated by state - owned enterprises, with private enterprises gradually playing an important role. Since 2014, the proportion of private enterprise capacity has been increasing [21] - State - owned enterprises still hold the majority of pure benzene capacity. Sinopec accounts for 25%, PetroChina 17%, and CNOOC 7%. Private refineries such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli, and Shenghong together account for nearly 24% [22][24] Group 4: Supplier Analysis by Process - For pure benzene produced by the catalytic reforming process, state - owned enterprises such as Sinopec (23%), PetroChina (18%), and CNOOC (5%) are the main suppliers, and private refineries account for 26%. The operation of reforming benzene is mainly planned, following refinery maintenance and profit [31] - For pure benzene produced by the ethylene cracking process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises is higher. Sinopec accounts for 41%, and private refineries account for 14%. The operation depends on ethylene cracking device maintenance and olefin demand [32] - For pure benzene produced by the toluene disproportionation process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises has decreased, and private refineries account for nearly 40%. The operation is flexible, depending on the profit of disproportionation and toluene demand for gasoline blending [33] Group 5: Regional Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene capacity is mainly concentrated in the East China region, accounting for 39%, followed by South China (23%) and Shandong (19%). East China is the main area for production, trade, and paper - based trading of pure benzene [38] Group 6: Hydrogenated Benzene Supply Pattern - In 2024, petroleum benzene production accounted for 71% of China's total pure benzene supply, imports 15%, and hydrogenated benzene 14% [46] - Hydrogenated benzene supply is mainly from private enterprises, and its capacity has grown slowly since 2016. Capacity is concentrated in North China and Shandong, and the industry concentration is relatively low [46][48]

Group 1 - Recent high temperatures in multiple regions of China have made energy supply a top priority, with major energy and petrochemical companies actively ensuring energy security through gas-electric integration [1] - China National Petroleum Corporation's Jiangsu branch has established an integrated mechanism of "gas source guarantee + policy coordination + peak regulation linkage" to support the economic development of the Yangtze River Delta [1] - The Jiangsu company has implemented a "one factory, one policy" supply guarantee plan and established a provincial coordination mechanism for gas-electric linkage to ensure precise resource allocation [1] Group 2 - With rising temperatures leading to increased electricity demand, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is leveraging its offshore gas fields to secure natural gas resources for summer energy supply [2] - CNOOC's Shenzhen branch is increasing production from nine offshore gas fields, ensuring stable and continuous gas supply to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with over 28 million cubic meters of gas delivered daily [2] - CNOOC's Jinwan "Green Energy Port" has completed the unloading of five LNG import vessels since the start of summer, exporting 28,500 tons of natural gas to ensure stable supply during peak demand [2] Group 3 - China Energy Group's Datong company has achieved full-capacity operation of its thermal power units, marking the first time this year that all units are running without maintenance [3] - The Fujian company of China Energy Group reported a 38.7% year-on-year increase in electricity generation, with an average load factor of 87% and a market share of 113.6%, achieving record levels ahead of the summer peak [3] - The company is also preparing for extreme weather events, ensuring that its units can operate effectively during peak demand periods [3]

Group 1 - Hainan Free Trade Port has achieved breakthroughs in "zero tariffs" on imported raw materials and value-added processing policies, with the first "zero tariff" crude oil processing enterprise benefiting from a tax reduction of 2.368 million yuan [1] - The 20th batch of innovative cases for Hainan Free Trade Port has been released, focusing on seven key areas including education openness, business environment, consumer services, healthcare, and ethnic culture, aimed at addressing deep-seated development bottlenecks [2] Group 2 - China's first self-operated ultra-deepwater gas field, "Deep Sea No. 1," has fully commenced production with the successful opening of the last production well in its second phase, marking its fourth anniversary [5] Group 3 - The 2025 International Designer Competition in Hainan has been launched with a theme of "Digital Links the World, Design Empowers Going Global," introducing a "dual track + proposition system" to leverage digital technology in the design industry [7] - An international seminar on typhoon observation and a scientific experiment on near-shore typhoon intensity changes has been successfully held in Haikou, aiming to promote the establishment of a collaborative early warning mechanism for typhoons in the Asia-Pacific region [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cease - fire of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a significant decline in international oil prices [1] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the weekly data of the US crude oil and refined oil markets, including prices, inventories, production, demand, and import - export volumes [2] - It also presents the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector and related listed companies, along with their valuations [21][24] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 3.2 This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 3.2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the sector's performance includes the sector's sub - industry price changes and the trend of the sector's sub - industries and the CSI 300 index [17] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [15][20] 3.2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector - The report shows the price changes of major companies in the upstream sector in different time periods (last week, last month, last three months, last year, and since the beginning of 2025) [22] - A valuation table for listed companies is provided, including share prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB ratios from 2024 to 2027 [24] 3.3 Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oils, and the relationships between crude oil prices and the US dollar index, copper prices [29][39][43] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [30][32][34] 3.3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Examines the correlation between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, and the relationship between the weekly destocking rate of US commercial crude oil and the price change of Brent crude oil [45][46] - Presents data on US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory [48][49][53] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [45][48][49] 3.3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of active crude oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [57][58] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][59] 3.3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rate, and Shandong refinery operating rate [62][64] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [63][64] 3.3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import volume, export volume, net import volume, and the import - export volume of crude oil and petroleum products [67][70] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [68][69][70] 3.4 Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price differences between crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, as well as the wholesale - retail price differences of domestic gasoline and diesel [75][84][90] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [75][77][82] 3.4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Presents data on US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene inventories, and Singapore gasoline and diesel inventories [102][105][111] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [102][106][112] 3.4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production [117][118][120] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [119][120] 3.4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene consumption, and the number of airport security checks for passengers [122][125][129] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [123][126][130] 3.4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes the import - export situation and net export volume of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene [132][135][136] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [133][136][137] 3.5 Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily rates of self - elevating and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [146][147][149] - Data sources are WIND and the Dongwu Securities Research Institute [146][148][150]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester industry, particularly for polyester filament yarn, anticipating a recovery in demand due to improving Sino-US trade relations [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expectation of a recovery in polyester filament yarn demand as Sino-US trade restrictions are anticipated to ease, potentially restoring textile and apparel exports to the US [4][5]. - It notes that US apparel wholesalers have been depleting their inventories since Q4 2022, and with the overseas economy recovering, a replenishment phase is expected to begin in 2025, further boosting filament yarn demand [4][7]. - The report emphasizes that downstream inventories for polyester filament yarn are at historically low levels, which supports a stable demand outlook despite external trade pressures [11]. - The report indicates that the valuation of polyester filament yarn companies is currently at historical lows, suggesting potential for upward movement during the seasonal peak periods [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell to $67.77 per barrel, a decrease of 12% week-on-week, while WTI prices dropped to $65.52 per barrel, down 11.27% [22]. - US commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 415 million barrels, down 5.84 million barrels from the previous week, and are 11% lower than the five-year average [24]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend for crude oil, with expectations of price fluctuations but overall stability due to OPEC+ production cuts [4][22]. Refining Sector - The report notes an increase in the Singapore refining margin to $16.47 per barrel, up $4.89 from the previous week, indicating improved refining profitability [56]. - The report suggests that refining product margins are still low but are expected to improve as economic recovery progresses [4][53]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been rising, with the average price in East China reaching 5,139 RMB per ton, up 1.08% week-on-week [4]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, anticipating a recovery in profitability as supply-demand dynamics improve [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies, refining firms, and offshore oil service companies, citing potential for performance improvement as market conditions stabilize [18].

Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience and growth potential of the logistics and procurement sector in China, with a total social logistics volume of 138.7 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [2] - China's foreign trade shows unique resilience, with a total import and export value of 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months, marking a 2.5% year-on-year increase [2] - The industrial sector's profit has seen a slight decline, with profits totaling 2.72 trillion yuan in the first five months, down 1.1% year-on-year, influenced by insufficient effective demand and declining industrial product prices [2] - The small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector is rapidly developing, with over 60 million SMEs expected by the end of 2024, and significant growth in revenue for large-scale industrial SMEs [2] Industry Analysis - The pet food industry shows strong consumer resilience, with pet food sales reaching 7.5 billion yuan during the 618 shopping festival, indicating a robust growth trend [7][8] - The report identifies a shift towards health-oriented and refined pet food products, with emerging categories like air-dried and baked food experiencing rapid growth [7] - The export of pet food has faced challenges due to tariff disruptions, with a 5.52% year-on-year decline in export volume in May, but the long-term impact is expected to be manageable [9] - The oil service engineering sector is experiencing high demand due to increased capital expenditure in the upstream oil and gas sector, with significant revenue growth projected for companies like CNOOC [11][12][15] - The report forecasts that CNOOC's capital expenditure will range from 125 billion to 135 billion yuan in 2025, driving further growth in oil service engineering business [14][15]

Core Insights - The South China Sea's oil and gas exploration history reflects China's transformation from a "follower" to a "leader" in deep-sea oil and gas exploration technology, with over 25 billion tons of oil and gas resources discovered, surpassing the reserves of the entire Persian Gulf [2][4][12] Group 1: Exploration Achievements - In March 2025, CNOOC announced the discovery of the Huizhou 19-6 oil field, estimated at 1 billion tons, marking a significant milestone in China's decades-long efforts in the South China Sea [4] - The South China Sea's proven oil and gas reserves include 1.38 billion tons of crude oil and 5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas in the Pearl River Mouth Basin, and an estimated 1.3 billion tons of crude oil in the Zengmu Basin [4] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The introduction of the "Ocean Oil 981" platform revolutionized deep-sea exploration, enabling drilling at depths of up to 3,000 meters and revealing previously hidden oil and gas resources [6][10] - The "Ocean Oil 982" platform, known as the "underwater screwdriver," can autonomously drill and extract oil at depths of 3,000 meters, while the "Sea Base No. 1" platform, launched in October 2022, set records for height and weight in China's offshore oil production [10] Group 3: Engineering and Research Efforts - Chinese engineers, referred to as the "deep-sea daredevils," have overcome extreme conditions in the Huizhou 19-6 oil field, located over 5,400 meters underwater, utilizing self-developed technologies to tackle high-temperature and high-pressure drilling challenges [8][11] - The commitment to research and development in high-temperature and high-pressure drilling technology has led to significant breakthroughs, with thousands of drill bits discarded during the decade-long effort [11] Group 4: Strategic Importance - The development of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea is crucial for national energy security and plays a role in international political dynamics, with China actively safeguarding its interests against competing claims from countries like Vietnam and Malaysia [12] - China is also taking steps to establish itself as a rule-maker in international deep-sea exploration, moving away from reliance on Western-dominated regulations [12] Group 5: Environmental Considerations and Future Plans - Despite facing criticism from environmental organizations, China is implementing measures such as zero-discharge drilling fluids and 24-hour monitoring systems to ensure sustainable development [13] - By 2030, China plans to discover two to three additional billion-ton oil fields in the South China Sea, with infrastructure projects aimed at diversifying energy supply and achieving regional balance [13][15]