Group 1 - The market is expected to maintain a positive trend despite short-term fluctuations, with October A-shares likely entering a critical window period for risk appetite recovery [1][2][4] - Historical data suggests that the market typically performs well after the National Day holiday, with current valuations remaining reasonable and not overly stretched [1][3] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with opportunities for "high-low cut" strategies within this sector [6][7] Group 2 - The liquidity in the market is anticipated to remain favorable, supported by factors such as the upward trend in margin financing and potential seasonal inflows from foreign capital [1][4][5] - The focus on cyclical industries is expected to yield better performance in the fourth quarter, with over 65% probability of these sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index [3] - Areas with improving earnings or sustained high growth are projected to generate excess returns, particularly in mid-to-high-end manufacturing and the AI industry chain [7]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in bond issuance by securities firms in China reflects a strong demand for capital, driven by increased market activity, expansion of capital-intensive businesses, and favorable financing conditions in a low-interest-rate environment [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Scale - As of September 28, 2023, the total bond issuance by securities firms has exceeded 1.18 trillion yuan, marking an 83.27% year-on-year increase, with 616 bonds issued compared to 366 in the same period last year [2]. - Monthly issuance saw a significant increase, with July reaching 142.99 billion yuan and August further rising to 275.5 billion yuan, setting new records for both volume and scale [2]. - Leading firms dominate the issuance, with seven firms surpassing 50 billion yuan in bond issuance, including China Galaxy, which issued over 100 billion yuan [2]. Group 2: Use of Funds - The bond issuance is characterized by a diverse allocation of funds, including debt repayment, liquidity support, and targeted investments, particularly in margin trading and derivatives [3]. - A significant portion of the funds is used for refinancing high-interest debt, optimizing debt structures, and enhancing operational capital for business expansion [3]. Group 3: Factors Driving Demand - The increase in bond issuance is attributed to multiple factors, including a strong A-share market, lower financing costs, and a supportive regulatory environment [4]. - The A-share market's performance, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing key thresholds, has led to a surge in trading activity, boosting demand for capital [4]. Group 4: Issuance Costs - The average interest rates for bond issuance have decreased compared to the previous year, with company bonds averaging 1.89%, subordinate bonds at 2.25%, and short-term financing bonds at 1.77% [5]. - Debt financing is favored over equity financing due to its larger funding capacity, lower costs in the current environment, and flexibility in meeting different business funding cycles without diluting equity [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The demand for capital among securities firms is expected to remain strong, with projections indicating continued high bond issuance in the fourth quarter [6]. - Leading firms are likely to strengthen their competitive positions due to capital and cost advantages, potentially intensifying the "Matthew Effect" in the industry [6].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 政策基调或暂时重回稳增长 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）Q3 价格企稳趋势强化，高频数据显示 9 月传统产业价格重新回 升，受下游需求提振，新能源领域价格回升势头更为明显。2）国内稳增长政 策即将加力，Q4 财政集中发力，但由于 7-8 月经济数据下行过多，完成全年 增长目标仍有压力，预计国庆节后将会出台稳增长相关政策。 海外方面，1）特朗普宣布对重型卡车、厨卫建材、家具、药品加征关税，部 分关税有 232 调查程序作为支撑。2）美国 Q2 实际 GDP 环比折年率上修至 3.8%，经济数据强劲引发降息预期持续降温。 资产方面，1）国内政策基调暂时重回稳增长，或暂时迎来股债双牛。压制融 资成本诉求令利率债或迎来短暂做多窗口，经济回升预期或令权益风格暂时趋 于均衡。2）美国基本面暂无衰退风险，后续降息预期的变化大概率也不会对 市场构成负面影响。一旦 AI 产业高景气度延续就能助力美股继续向上。 货币流动性跟踪（9 月 22 日——9 月 26 日） 流动性复盘： 本周，临近跨季和十一长假，资金面整体延续偏紧。基准利率上行约 1 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 28 日 维持震荡看多，风格转向大盘 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250928 1. 当前市场观察 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 金融工程 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 定期报告 ❑ 本周市场继续震荡，大盘成长风格维持强势，价值风格继续走弱。具体来 看，万得全 A 指数上涨约 0.25%，上证 50、沪深 300 分别上涨约 1.09%、 1.09%，中证 1000 则下跌约 0.52%。国证价值下跌约 0.25%，而国证成长上 涨约 2.37%，创业板指、科创 50 分别上涨约 1.97%、6.47%。 ❑ 择时方面，继续看多 A 股，但短期看好程度有所下降。继续看好的核心原因 为当前市场交易情绪仍相对较强、人民币升值背景下内外部流动性宽裕、基 本面上信贷脉冲不弱且消费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the intertwined nature of money and banking, stating that modern banks and credit money emerged simultaneously, with banks generating interest income through money creation and service fees from money circulation [5][10] - It discusses the evolution of financial regulation, highlighting the tightening of financial supervision and the reduction of regulatory arbitrage opportunities, which impacts banks' macro credit creation capabilities [5][11] - The report notes the global dominance of the US dollar as a world currency, while also addressing the potential for the internationalization of the Renminbi amid the declining trust in the dollar [5][11] Summary by Sections Introduction: Money and Banking - The report introduces the concept that studying banks necessitates an understanding of money, and vice versa, establishing a foundation for further exploration of banking and monetary systems [10] Evolution of Money - The report outlines the progression from a barter system to the introduction of physical currency, illustrating how complex transactions necessitated a common medium of exchange [12][14][16] Wealth Accumulation and Banking - It describes the transition from wealth storage in physical forms to the establishment of banks, where trust in goldsmiths led to the creation of deposit certificates and the initial forms of banking [18][21] Modern Banking System - The report details the characteristics of the modern banking system, including the role of central banks, reserve requirements, and the impact of regulatory frameworks on banking operations [29][30]

Company Overview - Full Name: Zhejiang Airo Network Energy Technology Co., Ltd [1] - Abbreviation: Airo Energy [1] - Stock Code: 688717.SH [1] - IPO Application Date: June 30, 2022 [1] - Listing Date: January 3, 2024 [1] - IPO Underwriter: China Merchants Securities [1] - IPO Law Firm: King & Wood Mallesons [1] - IPO Audit Firm: Rongcheng Accounting Firm [1] Disclosure and Evaluation - Disclosure Issues: Required to adjust the prospectus for information disclosure; contradictions in the sponsor's report regarding the distribution model and client disclosures; required to re-disclose major raw material suppliers, technical level, and market position; required to remove redundant disclosures about market position and operational achievements; required to enhance content on "core technology leakage risk"; required to delete "R&D failure risk" and related important commitments [1] - Regulatory Penalties: No deductions [2] - Public Supervision: No deductions [2] Listing Performance - Listing Cycle: Airo Energy's listing cycle is 552 days, shorter than the average of 629.45 days for 2024 A-share companies [3] - Multiple Applications: Not applicable, no deductions [4] - Issuance Costs: Underwriting and sponsorship fees amount to 206.62 million, with a commission rate of 9.28%, higher than the average of 7.71% [4] - First Day Performance: Stock price increased by 57.98% on the first day of listing [5] - Three-Month Performance: Stock price increased by 41.32% compared to the issuance price within three months of listing [7] Financial Metrics - Issuance Price-Earnings Ratio: Airo Energy's issuance P/E ratio is 7.95 times, which is 45.64% of the industry average of 17.42 times [8] - Actual Fundraising Ratio: Expected fundraising of 1.047 billion, actual fundraising of 2.226 billion, with an oversubscription ratio of 112.64% [9] Short-Term Performance - Short-Term Financial Performance: In 2024, the company's operating revenue decreased by 31.30% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 80.88%, and non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 86.39% [10] - Subscription and Underwriting Rates: Abandonment rate is 0.35% [11] Overall Evaluation - Total Score: Airo Energy's IPO project scored 80.5 points, classified as B-level. Negative factors affecting the score include the need for improved disclosure quality, high issuance cost rate, excessive actual fundraising, and declines in revenue and net profit in the first accounting year [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the internet and non-ferrous metal sectors, has shown strong performance and is expected to continue benefiting from long-term upward trends despite potential market volatility [1] - AI remains a key theme in the Hong Kong market, with internet stocks anticipated to be among the biggest beneficiaries [1] - Non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from both liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [1] Group 2 - The recommendation is to focus on technology sectors, including AI internet large caps and high-end manufacturing small caps, as well as non-ferrous metals [1] - There is a suggestion to increase allocation to Hong Kong insurance stocks, which have significant market expectation discrepancies, as well as to value strategies such as "turnaround" and high dividend stocks [1] - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks are recommended for bottom-up investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong's internet and non-ferrous metal sectors has been strong, and the recommendation to invest in these sectors remains unchanged. The long-term upward trend is expected to continue despite potential market volatility [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in the near term, but the long-term upward trend is expected to remain intact [1] - AI continues to be a key theme in the Hong Kong market, with the internet sector expected to be one of the primary beneficiaries [1] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Non-ferrous metals are benefiting from dual advantages of liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [1] - It is recommended to focus on technology sectors, including AI internet large caps and small caps in high-end manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals [1] - There is a suggestion to increase allocation to Hong Kong insurance stocks with significant market expectation discrepancies, as well as value strategies such as "turnaround" and high dividend stocks [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks are identified as potential candidates for bottom-up investment [1]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's listing review committee approved the initial public offering (IPO) of Southern Power Grid Digital Grid Research Institute Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Southern Grid Digital"), marking it as the 56th company approved for listing this year [1] - Southern Grid Digital aims to provide comprehensive digital construction solutions for clients in the power energy sector, focusing on building a world-class digital and intelligent innovation platform for power grids [1][2] - The company plans to raise approximately 255.45 million yuan for various projects, including the construction of a spatial intelligent digital twin platform and an advanced power artificial intelligence platform [2] Group 2 - Southern Grid Digital is controlled by Southern Power Grid Digital Group Co., Ltd., which holds 74% of the shares, while the actual controller is the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council [2] - The company has a strong focus on expanding its products and services beyond the power energy sector into areas such as transportation, water supply, gas, public security, and urban construction [1][2] - The underwriting institution for the IPO is China Merchants Securities, which has successfully sponsored four IPO projects this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Association has recently communicated the evaluation results of securities companies for the 2025 financial "Five Major Articles" initiative, with CITIC Securities ranking first in seven quantitative evaluations [2][3]. Group 1: Evaluation Results - The evaluation period covers the previous year from January 1 to December 31, with 107 participating securities firms submitting data for review [3]. - CITIC Securities led in the underwriting of technology innovation bonds, with an amount of 128.19 billion, followed by CITIC Jiantou, Guotai Junan, CICC, and Huatai Securities [3]. - In terms of financing for technology enterprises, CITIC Securities also ranked first with a financing amount of 27.04 billion, followed by CITIC Jiantou, CICC, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities [4]. Group 2: Market Participation - Several firms, including CITIC Securities, CITIC Jiantou, Guotai Junan, and others, have served over 20 technology enterprises, indicating a broad market participation [5]. - For major asset restructuring transactions involving technology enterprises, CITIC Securities again ranked first with a transaction amount of 32.07 billion [5]. Group 3: Green and Private Enterprise Bonds - In the underwriting of green and low-carbon transition bonds, CITIC Securities led with an amount of 16.54 billion, followed by CITIC Jiantou and Guotai Junan [5]. - For private enterprise bonds, the top five underwriters included招商证券, 广发证券, 平安证券, CICC, and Huatai Securities, with amounts ranging from 38.15 billion to 12.57 billion [5]. Group 4: Pension Products - The top five firms in the distribution of personal pension products included 广发证券, 招商证券, 国信证券, 中国银河, and 兴业证券, with amounts ranging from 17.18 million to 11.42 million [6]. Group 5: Evaluation Framework - The evaluation results will be incorporated into the 2025 classification system for securities firms, with a scoring system that emphasizes quantitative indicators [7]. - The evaluation framework includes 14 representative indicators, focusing on contributions and service capabilities in key areas, with technology finance receiving the highest weight [8].