招商证券国际发布研报称，阿里巴巴-W(09988)管理层表示，未来三年无AI泡沫，并拟上调此前2026- 2028财年总计3800亿元人民币的资本开支。该行对阿里云的持续加速保持乐观，预计其2026-2027财年 收入同比增34%及35%。暂维持港股目标价198港元及"增持"评级。 该行预计，阿里巴巴截至12月财季CMR增速将同比放缓至6%，同时预计季度亏损将显著收窄。另预计 集团中国商业整体收入在2026-2027财年分别增12%及9%，2026年经调整EBITDA分别年减37%，2026年 则年增35%。整体而言，该行将阿里巴巴2026-2027财年归母净利润预测上调1-3%，其中云业务收入上 调抵消了国际电商及其他板块的下调。该行继续维持集团为中国互联网首选，保持对其AI领导力、云 业务加速及核心商业稳健前景的积极判断。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 随着"十五五"规划蓝图绘就，中国资本市场高质量发展的路线图进一步清晰。证监会主席吴清日前指 出，未来五年是全面深化资本市场改革、加快打造一流投行和投资机构的战略机遇期。政策信号明确之 下，多家头部券商密集发布展望报告，拆解规划带来的投资新范式。 聚焦金融行业自身的改革与成长机遇 中信证券研究表示，"十五五"期间，证券行业格局有望深度重塑，推动行业实现错位发展，10家引领行 业发展的综合性机构将逐步成型。投行业务、衍生品业务、期货业务和资产证券化业务的监管周期有望 逐步回暖，证券公司有望通过内生增长和并购重组实现自身的长足发展，资产配置、综合服务和国际化 能力有望成为行业分化的决定因素。建议关注冲击国际一流投行的龙头证券公司以及具备跻身头部梯队 潜力的中大型证券公司。 国泰海通金融团队指出，保险业、券商业、银行业在 "十五五" 期间的发展目标与预期明确，将实现规 模与质量协同提升。1）保险业预计规模与质量双升，2030 年保费收入或达 8 万亿元、行业总资产有望 突破 60 万亿元，更加突出保险服务实体经济的 "减震器" 与保障民生的 " ...

Core Viewpoint - High dividend stocks are showing strong performance, particularly focusing on "high dividend + low valuation" large-cap blue-chip stocks, with the value ETF (510030) experiencing a price increase of nearly 1% during trading [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The value ETF (510030) rose by 0.37% as of the report, indicating a positive market sentiment towards high dividend stocks [1] - Key sectors leading the gains include brokerage and insurance, with notable increases in stocks such as Industrial Securities (up 8.33%) and Huatai Securities (up 4.63%) [1] Group 2: Valuation Insights - As of the last trading day (December 5), the value ETF's underlying index, the 180 Value Index, had a price-to-book ratio of 0.84, which is at a relatively low level compared to the past decade [3] - The current market risk appetite is near the rolling five-year average, suggesting that high dividend sectors, particularly banks and oil, are performing well [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The value ETF closely tracks the 180 Value Index, which selects the top 60 stocks based on value factor scores, primarily from the financial sector [4] - The index constituents are characterized by "low valuation + high dividend" attributes, providing defensive qualities in volatile markets [4]

华泰证券指出，这是今年5月以来监管部门推动险资入市，宣布的多项举措的具体落地。《通知》对于 偿付能力或有小幅提升作用，更重要的是体现了监管层对于险资入市的鼓励和呵护态度，以及对长期投 资、长期资本的明确指向。《通知》对于红利股的强调，正契合了当下保险公司侧重红利股投资的趋 势。《通知》同时调降了出口信用保险以及海外投资保险业务的保险风险因子，体现了鼓励中国保险业 支持中国企业出海的战略导向。 保险证券ETF紧密跟踪中证800证券保险指数，中证800证券保险指数是在中证800指数的基础上，选择 证券保险行业内对应的证券作为指数样本，为投资者提供更多样化的投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证800证券保险指数(399966)前十大权重股分别为中国平安 (601318)、东方财富(300059)、中信证券(600030)、国泰海通(601211)、中国太保(601601)、华泰证券 (601688)、中国人寿(601628)、广发证券(000776)、招商证券(600999)、新华保险(601336)，前十大权重 股合计占比63.12%。 截至2025年12月8日 09:44，中证800证券保险指 ...

Core Viewpoint - High dividend stocks are showing strong performance, particularly focusing on "high dividend + low valuation" large-cap blue-chip stocks, with the value ETF (510030) experiencing a price increase of 0.37% as of the report time [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The value ETF (510030) saw an intraday price increase of nearly 1%, closing up 0.37% [1]. - Key stocks in the ETF include securities and insurance companies, with notable gains from firms like Industrial Securities (up 8.33%) and Huatai Securities (up 4.63%) [1]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - As of the last trading day (December 5), the value ETF's underlying index, the 180 Value Index, had a price-to-book ratio of 0.84, which is at a relatively low level compared to the past decade, indicating strong medium to long-term investment value [3]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The securities industry is expected to experience high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan, playing a core role in serving the real economy and optimizing household wealth allocation [1]. - Policies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission are anticipated to create structural investment opportunities and long-term value reconstruction in the securities sector [1]. - The high dividend sector, particularly banks and oil companies, has shown strong performance, with expectations for market risk preferences to recover in December [4].

截至2025年12月8日 09:42，国证证券龙头指数(399437)强势上涨3.86%，成分股兴业证券(601377)上涨 10.00%，华泰证券(601688)上涨5.60%，国泰海通(601211)上涨4.46%，东方证券(600958)，广发证券 (000776)等个股跟涨。证券ETF龙头(159993)上涨3.89%， 冲击3连涨。最新价报1.33元。 从资金净流入方面来看，证券ETF龙头近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1274.34万元净流入， 合计"吸金"2527.22万元，日均净流入达842.41万元。 消息面上，证监会相关负责人12月6日表示，将着力强化分类监管、"扶优限劣"。对优质机构适当"松 绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间和杠杆限制，提升资本利用效率。 2025年前三季度，43家上市券商归母净利润同比高增64%，显著跑赢大盘（上证成分股+4.4%），但证 券板块指数却明显滞涨，凸显巨大的市场预期差。 从行业发展角度考虑，自23年初证监会提出，"倡导证券公司走资本节约型、高质量发展的新路"，到25 年8月券商分类评价规则引导券商重视内生发展规模、提升ROE，期间券商股权融 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，当前市值相较26年业绩性价比较高，关注26年业绩增长驱动 的估值修复机会。25年前10月快递业务量增长17.2%，其中10月同比+7.9%，从高频揽投数据来看，预 计11月增速略有回升。"反内卷"推动行业价格、盈利及估值修复：7 月以来邮政局多次召开"反内卷"相 关会议;8月以来大部分地区完成首轮价格上涨，涨幅0.2-0.4元，10月广东等局部地区价格二次上涨，涨 幅0.1-0.2元，旺季价格修复基本完成，有望推动Q4行业盈利同比大幅增长。从26年全年来看，盈利增 长趋势较为明确，当前市值相较26年业绩性价比较高，建议关注26年业绩增长驱动的估值修复机会。 招商证券主要观点如下： 上市快递公司核心数据 1)业务量增速分化，顺丰受益积极的业务开拓、增速领先行业，2025年10月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通分别完 成快递业务量15.2/27.9/21.4/22.7亿票，同比变化分别为+26.3%/+12.8%/-5.1%/+4.0%;2)韵达申通单票价 格持续回升、顺丰受结构下沉影响同比依然承压，10月顺丰/圆通/韵达/申通单票收入分别为 13.18/2.23/2.11/2.18 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the expectation of a robust economic start in 2026 driven by proactive macro policies and structural reforms as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to improve, nearing the "7" mark against the USD [1][19] Focused Commentary - Wu Qing highlights the importance of enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on public fund reforms and aligning investor interests [3] - The article discusses the need for a binding mechanism for public funds to ensure investor profit and loss are core to assessments, promoting the development of equity funds and index investments [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities predicts a more proactive policy direction in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, with a focus on consumption expansion, technological innovation, and real estate risk mitigation [5] - Huaxia Fund suggests that the "spring rally" may start earlier due to key meetings, improved macro liquidity, and easing of funding pressures, recommending a focus on AI, domestic demand recovery, and resource sectors [6] -招商证券 notes that December's market will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meetings and domestic conferences, with a preference for large-cap stocks and blue-chip dividends [7] Industry Research - Galaxy Securities indicates that the power industry will see opportunities for capacity upgrades during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on stable profitability in thermal power and growth in nuclear power [12] - Harvest Fund expresses optimism for the energy storage sector, highlighting its transition to a growth phase driven by policy and technological advancements [13] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities sees significant growth potential in the low-altitude economy, predicting a market size exceeding one trillion by 2030 [14] Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities anticipates a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with a forecast of 6.82 against the USD by the end of 2026, driven by strong export growth and seasonal currency settlement peaks [19] - Bosera Fund notes a cautious sentiment in the bond market, with a need for clearer signals of policy easing to boost demand [20] - Guotai Fund believes that the bond market may see a recovery opportunity following recent volatility, suggesting it could be a good time for long-term positioning [21] Asset Allocation - CICC recommends maintaining a "barbell" strategy in asset allocation, combining dividend stocks with technology investments, while adjusting weights based on market conditions [23]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference on the macroeconomic landscape [2][4] - It highlights the expected changes in dollar liquidity and the reasons behind the recent strength of the Renminbi [4][5] - The article emphasizes the anticipated shift in global liquidity favoring AH shares and the revaluation of Renminbi assets, alongside the potential for a bull-bear transition in the US stock market [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis includes projections for the agricultural product market, questioning whether a global upcycle is beginning and identifying trading opportunities in grains, oils, cotton, sugar, and live pigs [10] - It estimates that the reallocation of household assets could bring approximately 5.4 to 12.0 trillion yuan of incremental funds to the A-share market by 2030 [12] - The potential incremental funds from insurance capital entering the A-share market are projected to be around 6.0 to 9.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [13]

1. 当前市场观察 ❑ 择时观点上，目前我们仍维持震荡市展望，但乐观程度较前上月有所上升， 市场大幅回调概率不高，建议保持耐心等待交易情绪回暖，核心原因有三： 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 12 月 7 日 利好逐步积累，但仍需交易量能回暖 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20251207 1）外部流动性上，美联储降息或为大概率事件，而日央行加息预期冲击或 弱于 2024 年，整体上对 A 股利空已经释放。目前 CME"美联储观察"对 12 月美联储降息概率的预测达到 87.20%，且"鸽派"候选人哈塞特接棒下一任 美联储主席的概率提升。而日央行此次加息预期影响或弱于 2024 年，一是 因为当前日本通胀虽偏高但薪资增速仍不乐观，日央行货币政策正常化节奏 或相对平稳；二是当前美元处于贬值预期导致日元空头仓位偏低，故 2024 年日元大量空头被动平仓导致美元流动性短期大幅收紧的情况或较难出现。 2）内部流动性上，本周国内出现今年较为罕见的股债同跌情况，部分观点 认为是年底结售汇高峰下的期限错配叠加央行流动性释放节奏偏缓，导致长 久期资产出现短期流动性收紧。从后续展望上来看，短期流动性收紧并不改 变国内 ...