Company Overview - Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co., Ltd. is located in Wujin High-tech Zone, Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, and was established on June 2, 2005. The company was listed on October 28, 2011. Its main business involves the research, production, and sales of high-pressure hydraulic cylinders [1] - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: hydraulic cylinders 50.70%, hydraulic pumps, valves, and motors 38.16%, parts and castings 7.28%, hydraulic systems 3.16%, and others 0.69% [1] Stock Performance - On September 16, Hengli Hydraulic's stock rose by 5.11%, reaching a price of 95.65 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.061 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.85%. The total market capitalization is 128.25 billion CNY [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Guotai Haitong Asset Management has a significant position in Hengli Hydraulic. The Guotai Junan High-end Equipment Mixed Fund A (017933) held 5,900 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 3.38% of the fund's net value, making it the ninth-largest holding [2] - The Guotai Junan High-end Equipment Mixed Fund A was established on March 1, 2023, with a latest scale of 8.0771 million CNY. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 9.62%, ranking 5,857 out of 8,174 in its category. Over the past year, it has returned 19.29%, ranking 6,077 out of 7,982, while since inception, it has incurred a loss of 8.72% [2] Fund Manager Information - The fund manager of Guotai Junan High-end Equipment Mixed Fund A is Li Yu, who has been in the position for 2 years and 201 days. The total asset size of the fund is 12.5552 million CNY. During his tenure, the best fund return was -8.8%, and the worst was -9.73% [3]

Summary of Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co Ltd - **Industry**: Hydraulic components and systems, specifically focusing on excavator hydraulic cylinders, pumps, and valves - **Market Position**: Leading supplier in China with over 40% market share in excavator hydraulic cylinders [11][40] Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - **2Q25 Results**: Revenue increased by 11% year-over-year (Y/Y) and net profit rose by 18% Y/Y, both exceeding consensus and historical averages [16] - **Guidance**: FY25 guidance remains unchanged, but there is potential upside for FY27 and beyond due to strong business momentum [17][31] - **Revenue Forecasts**: FY27 revenue estimates increased by 4% and FY28 by 12%, with net profit estimates raised by 3% and 11% respectively [17] Growth Drivers - **Domestic Demand**: Strong recovery in domestic demand, particularly for excavator cylinders, driven by infrastructure projects like the mega-dam and Xinjiang-Tibet Railway [16][22] - **International Expansion**: Orders from Europe and the US are rebounding, with the Mexico plant expected to achieve profitability by 2026, mitigating tariff risks [16][24] - **FA & Robotics Segment**: This segment is projected to be a core growth engine, with potential revenues reaching Rmb4.5 billion by FY28 under the bull case scenario [18][19] Strategic Initiatives - **Diversification**: Since 2022, Hengli has focused on diversifying its business to reduce reliance on excavator products and supply chain concentration [11][40] - **New Product Development**: Expansion into linear motion products and humanoid robotics is expected to contribute to revenue from 2025 onward [11][40][29] Margin and Profitability - **Gross Margin**: 2Q25 gross margin reached 44%, the highest since the 2020 upcycle, with expectations for further improvement as product mix shifts towards higher-value models [16][30] - **Long-term Margin Potential**: Management believes there is no upper limit to margin improvement as new products ramp up and manufacturing efficiency is optimized [30] Risks and Challenges - **Market Risks**: Key risks include lower-than-expected excavator sales volumes, slower market share gains for pumps and valves, and potential trade tensions leading to higher tariffs [42] - **Execution Risks**: The FA & robotics segment faces risks related to slower adoption and execution delays, which could impact revenue growth [19] Additional Insights - **Market Share Expansion**: International markets remain underpenetrated, with significant opportunities for share gains, particularly in Japan and Europe [23] - **Non-Excavator Segments**: Growth in agricultural machinery and new energy segments, with plans for a new plant in Brazil to capture market share [27] - **Aerial Work Platforms**: Currently weak demand, but Hengli is positioned to capitalize on recovery when market conditions improve [28] Valuation - **Price Target**: DCF-based price target raised to Rmb116 from Rmb105, reflecting the bullish outlook on growth and profitability [12][17] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is expected to maintain strong financial ratios, with a projected revenue growth of 14.6% in FY25 and 19.8% in FY26 [10] This summary encapsulates the key takeaways from the conference call, highlighting the company's strong market position, growth potential, and strategic initiatives while also addressing the associated risks and challenges.

Market Overview - On September 15, the engineering machinery sector rose by 0.7% compared to the previous trading day, with Changling Hydraulic leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77, up 0.63% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the engineering machinery sector showed varied performance, with notable gainers including: - Changling Hydraulic: Closed at 47.46, up 6.27% with a trading volume of 65,800 shares and a turnover of 310 million yuan [1] - Tuoshan Heavy Industry: Closed at 40.61, up 5.59% with a trading volume of 49,600 shares and a turnover of 197 million yuan [1] - Weiman Sealing: Closed at 38.86, up 5.43% with a trading volume of 128,500 shares and a turnover of 490 million yuan [1] - Conversely, some stocks experienced declines, such as: - Hengli Drill Tools: Closed at 43.37, down 2.76% with a trading volume of 22,600 shares and a turnover of 97.64 million yuan [2] - Fushite: Closed at 27.84, down 2.73% with a trading volume of 24,700 shares and a turnover of 70.44 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The engineering machinery sector saw a net outflow of 205 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 266 million yuan [2][3] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Liugong: Main funds net inflow of 64.71 million yuan, with retail funds net outflow of 28.77 million yuan [3] - Hengli Hydraulic: Main funds net inflow of 64.11 million yuan, with retail funds net outflow of 28.22 million yuan [3] - Zhonglian Heavy Industry: Main funds net inflow of 58.49 million yuan, with retail funds net outflow of 14.21 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hengli Hydraulic has seen a significant increase in its stock price, rising by 5.01% to reach 90.69 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 121.599 billion CNY [1] - Hengli Hydraulic, established on June 2, 2005, and listed on October 28, 2011, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-pressure hydraulic cylinders [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes hydraulic cylinders (50.70%), hydraulic pumps, valves, and motors (38.16%), parts and castings (7.28%), hydraulic systems (3.16%), and others (0.69%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Changcheng Fund has one fund heavily invested in Hengli Hydraulic, specifically the Changcheng Industry Rotation Mixed A fund, which held 343,900 shares, accounting for 3.06% of the fund's net value [2] - The Changcheng Industry Rotation Mixed A fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 30.19%, ranking 2638 out of 8246 in its category, and a one-year return of 48.12%, ranking 3307 out of 8054 [2] - The fund manager, Yang Yu, has been in charge for 4 years and 49 days, with the fund's total asset size at 8.09 billion CNY [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and market position of Hengli Hydraulic, which saw a stock price increase of 5.01% to 90.69 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 1215.99 billion CNY [1] - Hengli Hydraulic, established on June 2, 2005, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-pressure hydraulic cylinders, with its main revenue sources being hydraulic cylinders (50.70%), hydraulic pumps and valves (38.16%), parts and castings (7.28%), hydraulic systems (3.16%), and others (0.69%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Guotai Haitong Asset Management has a significant position in Hengli Hydraulic, with Guotai Junan High-end Equipment Mixed Fund A (017933) holding 5900 shares, accounting for 3.38% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding [2] - The Guotai Junan High-end Equipment Mixed Fund A was established on March 1, 2023, with a current scale of 807.71 million CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 9.52% and a one-year return of 19.15% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and market position of Hengli Hydraulic, which saw a 5.01% increase in stock price, reaching 90.69 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 121.599 billion CNY [1] - Hengli Hydraulic, established on June 2, 2005, and listed on October 28, 2011, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-pressure hydraulic cylinders [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes hydraulic cylinders (50.70%), hydraulic pumps, valves, and motors (38.16%), parts and castings (7.28%), hydraulic systems (3.16%), and others (0.69%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Zhejiang Merchants Securities Asset Management has a fund that heavily invests in Hengli Hydraulic, specifically the Zhejiang Dingying Event-Driven Mixed Fund (LOF) [2] - In the second quarter, this fund increased its holdings by 1,800 shares, bringing the total to 6,000 shares, which represents 4.39% of the fund's net value, ranking it as the eighth largest holding [2] - The fund has achieved a return of 20% year-to-date, ranking 4,209 out of 8,246 in its category, and a one-year return of 43.22%, ranking 3,801 out of 8,054 [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Outlook**: The industrial sector in China is facing a challenging trajectory in 2H25, with persistent macro headwinds and a cautious outlook due to muted demand and external risks, particularly from US tariffs [10][11][24][25]. Core Insights 1. **Earnings Performance**: In 1H25, 39% of companies reported earnings beats, a notable increase from 20% in 2H24, indicating improved performance against lower expectations [1]. 2. **Manufacturing Activity**: The Manufacturing PMI fell below 50 during Apr-Aug 2025, reflecting weak domestic consumption and cooling export orders [11][12]. 3. **Corporate Profits**: Industrial profits declined by 1.7% year-on-year to RMB 4 trillion (approximately USD 559 billion) in 7M25, with a slight recovery noted in July due to government measures [14]. 4. **Capex Intentions**: There is a significant contraction in Japan's machine tool orders to China, indicating a risk-off sentiment among manufacturers [16][20]. 5. **Destocking Cycle**: The destocking phase is nearing an end, but restocking is not yet in sight, as businesses await improved demand and profit margins [21]. Investment Strategies Barbell Strategy - **High-Risk Basket**: Focus on sectors like AI infrastructure, factory automation, and humanoid robots. Key picks include: - **AI Infra**: Kingboard Laminates (KBL), Shengyi Technology (SYTECH), Han's CNC [26][27]. - **Factory Automation**: Wuxi Lead, UBTECH, Hengli Hydraulic [43][46]. - **Low-Risk Basket**: Emphasize infrastructure and export sectors, with a preference for: - **China Infrastructure**: CRRC, Lesso, China State Construction International (CSCI) [5][61]. - **Export**: Techtronic, Shenzhou, Stella, focusing on high dividend yields [5]. Key Company Insights 1. **Kingboard Laminates (KBL)**: Reported 1H25 earnings growth of 28% to HKD 933 million, with expectations of improved gross margins in 2H25 due to price increases [28][29]. 2. **Shengyi Technology (SYTECH)**: Anticipates a 10-15% increase in shipments of AI-related materials, with ongoing expansion plans [33][34]. 3. **Wuxi Lead**: Expected to benefit from an EV battery capex cycle turnaround, with new orders projected to exceed previous guidance [47][48]. 4. **UBTECH**: Revised delivery guidance for humanoid robots upwards, indicating strong demand in the auto and electronics sectors [52][53]. 5. **CRRC**: Upgraded to Buy due to strong earnings and increased high-speed rail tenders, with a target price raised to HKD 7.30 [62][64]. Additional Considerations - **Policy Response**: The effectiveness of government policies in stimulating demand remains uncertain, with a need for decisive action to restore private sector confidence [24]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the industrial sector is cautious, with a preference for companies with strong balance sheets and exposure to structural growth themes [25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the China industrial sector, investment strategies, and specific company insights.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the mechanical equipment industry [6]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.64% in Q2 2025, with a narrowing growth rate compared to the previous quarter. Key segments with accelerated revenue growth include wind power equipment, PCB(A), shipbuilding, lithium battery equipment, and instruments [13][18]. - The industry saw a year-on-year increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items of 16.22% in Q2 2025, with wind power and lithium battery equipment showing accelerated growth. The shipbuilding sector led with a 106% year-on-year increase, although this was affected by a low base [18][31]. - The overall profitability of the mechanical equipment industry strengthened in Q2 2025, with notable performance in the shipbuilding, railway equipment, and oil and gas equipment sectors [31]. Summary by Sections Overall Mechanical Equipment Overview - The mechanical equipment industry reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.64% in Q2 2025, with revenue growth accelerating in specific segments [13]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 16.22% year-on-year, with wind power and lithium battery equipment leading the growth [18]. - The industry’s net profit margin increased by 0.38 percentage points year-on-year in Q2 2025, indicating improved profitability across various segments [25]. Subsector Performance - The engineering machinery sector saw a revenue increase of 8.7% in H1 2025, driven by strong overseas sales and diversified business contributions [44]. - Major companies in the engineering machinery sector, such as SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG, reported significant revenue growth, with SANY achieving a 15% increase year-on-year in H1 2025 [41][44]. - The overall net profit for the engineering machinery sector reached 161 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 25.1% year-on-year increase, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth [45].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" [37] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a recovery trend, with both domestic and export sales of excavators and loaders showing positive year-on-year growth in August 2025 [3][4] - The domestic sales of excavators in August 2025 reached 7,685 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.80%, while the total excavator sales for January to August 2025 amounted to 154,181 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.20% [3] - Loader sales in August 2025 were 9,440 units, with a year-on-year increase of 13.34%, and cumulative sales for the first eight months of 2025 reached 83,209 units, up 12.86% year-on-year [4] - The demand for construction machinery is supported by stable infrastructure investment, ongoing replacement policies, and the issuance of special bonds, which totaled approximately 38,872 billion yuan from January to August 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.94% [5] - The trend of exporting construction machinery is positive, with strong demand from Africa and improving sales in Southeast Asia and South America [5] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - In August 2025, excavator sales were 16,523 units, with a year-on-year growth of 12.81% and a month-on-month decline of 3.59% [3] - Cumulative excavator sales from January to August 2025 were 154,181 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.20% [3] Loader Sales - Loader sales in August 2025 reached 9,440 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.34% and a month-on-month increase of 4.89% [4] - Cumulative loader sales for the first eight months of 2025 were 83,209 units, up 12.86% year-on-year [4] Industry Performance - The first half of 2025 saw revenue and net profit growth for major domestic construction machinery manufacturers, with revenue growth of 8.70% and net profit growth of 22.85% [6] - Major manufacturers such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG reported significant year-on-year increases in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued attention to industry leaders, specifically recommending Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic [6]

证券之星消息，9月12日工程机械板块较上一交易日下跌1.4%，恒立液压领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3883.69，上涨0.22%。深证成指报收于12996.38，上涨0.13%。工程机械板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 836942 | 恒立钻具 | 44.82 | 3.22% | 2.29万 | 1.02亿 | | 600815 | 厦工股份 | 2.81 | 2.18% | 33.28万 | 9297.94万 | | 835174 | 五新随装 | 58.73 | 1.89% | 2.47万 | 1.44亿 | | 002097 | 山河智能 | 14.39 | 1.70% | 43.10万 | 6.16亿 | | 301161 | 唯万密封 | 36.60 | 1.27% | 6.38万 | 2.31亿 | | 600984 | 建设机械 | 3.64 | 1.11% | 15.90万 | 5760.44万 | | 603611 | 诺力股份 | 24.7 ...