Core Viewpoint - Hengli Hydraulic's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 103.65%, but a recent decline of 4.67% over the past five trading days, indicating potential market fluctuations and investor sentiment shifts [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hengli Hydraulic reported a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.09 billion yuan, marking a 16.49% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 6.18 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 3.11 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Hengli Hydraulic was 36,900, a decrease of 15.76% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 18.70% to 36,379 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 118 million shares, an increase of 15.19 million shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, which saw slight reductions in their holdings [3]. Market Activity - On December 18, Hengli Hydraulic's stock price fell by 2.04% to 105.43 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 687 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.48%. The total market capitalization stood at 141.36 billion yuan [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 22.68 million yuan, with significant selling pressure observed, as large orders accounted for 13.47% of total sales [1]. Business Overview - Hengli Hydraulic, established on June 2, 2005, and listed on October 28, 2011, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-pressure hydraulic cylinders. The revenue composition includes hydraulic cylinders (50.70%), hydraulic pumps and valves (38.16%), components and castings (7.28%), hydraulic systems (3.16%), and others (0.69%) [1]. - The company operates within the machinery equipment sector, specifically in engineering machinery and components, and is associated with concepts such as shield machines and engineering machinery [1].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup reports that the China Construction Machinery Industry Association announced an increase in construction machinery shipments for November, with significant demand for crawler cranes, which saw a year-on-year increase of 102% [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Performance - Crawler cranes are experiencing the strongest demand in the Chinese market, with shipments in November increasing by 102% year-on-year [1] - The demand surge is attributed to equipment replacement needs and strong demand in renewable energy sectors, such as wind energy [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - In contrast, the shipment volume of tower cranes in China saw a year-on-year decline, with the drop expanding from 17% in October to 49% in November [1] - The market share of the top four large excavator manufacturers decreased from 59.7% in 2024 to 58.7% in the first nine months of this year, indicating intensified competition among Chinese machinery manufacturers [1] Group 3: Company Preferences - Citigroup maintains its preference ranking for the domestic construction machinery industry, listing Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Sany Heavy Industry (600031) H-shares, Sany Heavy Industry (600031) A-shares, Zoomlion (000157) and lastly, Construction Machinery (600984) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong demand for crawler cranes in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year increase in shipments of 102% in November [1] - The demand for crawler cranes is driven by equipment replacement needs and strong demand in renewable energy sectors such as wind energy [1] - In contrast, the shipment volume of tower cranes in China saw a significant year-on-year decline, with a drop from 17% in October to 49% in November [1] Group 2 - The market share of the top four large excavator manufacturers in China decreased from 59.7% in 2024 to 58.7% in the first nine months of this year, indicating intensified competition among Chinese machinery manufacturers [1] - The preference ranking for the domestic engineering machinery industry remains unchanged, with the order being Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), Sany Heavy Industry (06031) H-shares, Sany Heavy Industry (600031.SH) A-shares, Zoomlion (01157), and finally Construction Machinery (600984.SH) [1]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index [35] Core Views - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue growing due to favorable domestic construction activity and the implementation of significant investment projects as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][27] - In November, the production of industrial robots reached approximately 70,200 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.60%, with expectations for total production to exceed 700,000 units in 2025 [2][27] - The report maintains "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [2][27] Industry News - In November, sales of various types of forklifts reached 119,749 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [10] - The domestic sales of forklifts for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 843,005 units, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [10] - Beijing Zhuoyue Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. successfully completed a strategic financing round of 200 million yuan [11] - Hitachi Construction Machinery will change its name to LANDCROS, pending shareholder approval [11] Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the comprehensive steel price index (CSPI) was recorded at 91.76 [12] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices were reported at $56.82 and $60.56 per barrel, respectively, as of December 16, 2025 [13] Company Announcements - Suzhou Sileck Precision Equipment Co., Ltd. announced a partnership with investment institutions to enhance project reserves and overall competitiveness [17] - Wuxi Chemical Equipment Co., Ltd. plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in South Korea with an investment of up to $100,000 [18] Market Review - From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.19%, while the machinery equipment sector declined by 2.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.76 percentage points [19] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 43.94 times, with a valuation premium of 218.89% relative to the CSI 300 [20]

Group 1 - The demand for crawler cranes in the Chinese market is the strongest among major types of construction machinery, with a year-on-year shipment increase of 102% in November [1] - The strong demand is driven not only by equipment replacement needs but also by robust demand in the renewable energy sector, such as wind energy [1] - The shipment volume of tower cranes in China saw a year-on-year decline that expanded from 17% in October to 49% in November, indicating continued weakness in the real estate sector [1] Group 2 - The market share of the top four large excavator manufacturers decreased from 59.7% in 2024 to 58.7% in the first nine months of this year, reflecting intensified competition among machinery manufacturers [1] - The preference ranking for the domestic construction machinery industry remains unchanged, with the order being Hengli Hydraulic, Sany Heavy Industry H-shares, Sany Heavy Industry A-shares, Zoomlion, and finally, XCMG [1]

Group 1 - The mechanical sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index rising by 36.11%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 19.74 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 8.78 percentage points [4][16][19] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the mechanical industry reported revenues of 15,135.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,080.76 billion yuan, up 16.80% year-on-year [4][22][27] - The public fund allocation ratio for the mechanical equipment sector increased by 0.25 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, indicating improved fundamentals and positive policy impacts [29] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing industry has maintained export resilience, with significant growth in new overseas markets. From January to October 2025, the export delivery value of general equipment, specialized equipment, and transportation equipment reached 6,173.20 billion yuan, 5,319.30 billion yuan, and 4,124 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.5%, 9.3%, and 24.20% [5][33][36] - The overseas sales of engineering machinery continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 11.84% in export value from January to October 2025, driven by technological innovation and diversified market strategies [37][41] - The motorcycle industry has established a strong competitive advantage in overseas markets, with exports reaching 1,101.85 million units and 7.278 billion USD in value from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.28% and 28.2% respectively [42][43] Group 3 - The emergence of new manufacturing scenarios signifies a profound transformation from "single technology upgrades" to "systematic ecological restructuring," enhancing production efficiency, product quality, and innovation capabilities [5][46] - Human-shaped robots are expected to address customization challenges in traditional manufacturing, with a market space projected to expand significantly as they transition from industrial applications to household use [47][54] - The intelligent logistics equipment market in China is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of 1,261 billion yuan in 2025, driven by advancements in IoT and AI technologies [64][72]

Accessible version Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co., Ltd (A) Sales growth to accelerate in 2026; expansion in HR; raise PO to RMB130 Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 130.00 CNY | Price: 112.50 CNY Sales growth to accelerate in 2026 with improving GPM Hengli's planned production has been solid in Nov-Dec, mainly supported by the robust demand for excavator cylinders. Its excavator cylinder business has been operating at full capacity in 4Q25. Looking into 2026, we expect sales growth to accelerate (16% YoY, vs. 13% Y ...

2026 年度策略：周期与成长共舞 20251214 性最强，而估值较低的标的弹性更大。 摘要 工程机械行业迎来第三轮周期，预计从 2024 年 9 月开始，持续五年， 目前处于第一年，受益于二手机和矿挖市场，预计明年估值切换将带来 25%-30%的收益率，龙头白马股确定性强，低估值标的弹性大。 2025 年船舶板块新接订单量同比下降 45%，但钢材价格下跌降低了船 厂成本，盈利能力提升。全球船舶交付能力与订单基本匹配，前景良好， 部分民营企业已释放业绩。海工板块受益于美元降息，高负债率项目有 望松绑，行业景气度上升带来回补机会。 顺周期板块确定性低于工程机械和船舶海工，国内行情不明朗，但受益 于人形机器人概念估值较高。企业积极拓展海外市场，关注低位个股， 其估值提升潜力较大，但能否支撑目前估值取决于人形机器人泡沫化进 展及整体恢复情况。 AI 产业链中，人形机器人是热点，数据自我迭代能力突破将带来人机界 面的 GPT 时刻。智能缝纫机、智能焊接、无人农机、矿卡等垂直应用， 以及数据中心和算力中心相关领域（如燃气轮机）都是明确受益方向， AI 产业链仍在加速前进。 Q&A 2026 年华特机械的年度策略是什么 ...

Core Insights - The mechanical industry is showing signs of recovery after three years of stagnation, with nominal GDP growth beginning to rise since Q4 2024, positively impacting the mechanical sector [17] - Domestic demand is weak while external demand is strong, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, where exports are gradually increasing due to improvements in the European and American markets [17][19] - The investment landscape is shifting towards overseas expansion and new industries, with a focus on automation and sectors supported by government subsidies [17][19] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is experiencing a dual trend of weak domestic demand and strong external demand, with engineering machinery showing signs of recovery but still facing a fragile foundation [17] - Domestic investment in real estate continues to decline, with a 14.7% year-on-year drop in real estate development investment from January to October 2025, while infrastructure investment growth has also slowed significantly [19][23] - The overall investment environment is expected to stabilize as the gap between domestic and foreign demand narrows, with structural opportunities in infrastructure projects like water conservancy and high-standard farmland construction [23] 2026 Domestic Outlook - The investment gap is expected to narrow, with infrastructure investment declining from high levels and real estate investment under pressure, leading to a focus on structural opportunities [19][23] - Manufacturing investment is crucial, with the core focus on PPI and inventory levels, as domestic manufacturing orders remain sluggish [26][28] - The expectation is that PPI will improve in 2026, driven by factors such as reduced internal competition and improved domestic demand [28] 2026 Overseas Outlook - The downward trend in interest rates is a significant macro narrative, with the U.S. and Europe entering a phase of fiscal expansion, which is expected to benefit Chinese manufacturing [29][38] - The global inventory levels are at historical lows, which could lead to a new investment cycle as demand recovers [35] - The second wave of globalization for Chinese manufacturing is anticipated, driven by fiscal expansion in the U.S. and Europe, and a recovery in industrial product demand [38][40] Stock Selection Strategy - The stock selection strategy for 2026 focuses on two main themes: benefiting from overseas expansion and new industries, particularly in sectors like engineering machinery and specialized equipment [44] - Key sectors include engineering machinery, shipbuilding, and high-tech equipment, with a focus on companies that are expected to maintain stable performance and low valuations [44] - Emerging industries such as AI equipment, lithium battery production, and semiconductor manufacturing are highlighted as areas of significant opportunity [44][45] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and China Shipbuilding, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [7] - Companies in the AI and semiconductor sectors, such as Longchuan Technology and Zhongwei Company, are also recommended due to their growth potential [7] - Future-oriented assets like humanoid robots and controllable nuclear fusion are noted as areas to watch for significant industry changes [7][45]

Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector experienced a rise of 1.04% on December 12, with Shaoyang Hydraulic leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35, up 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13258.33, up 0.84% [1] Engineering Machinery Sector Performance - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) saw a significant increase of 19.98%, closing at 30.86 with a trading volume of 256,100 shares and a transaction value of 737 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Wantong Hydraulic (920839) with an 8.04% increase, closing at 46.24, and Construction Machinery (600984) with a 6.46% increase, closing at 4.78 [1] - The sector also included companies like Tuoshan Heavy Industry (001226) and Hangcha Group (603298), which rose by 4.29% and 3.57% respectively [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a net inflow of 15.6469 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 428 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 443 million yuan from speculative funds [2]