Market Performance - The engineering machinery sector increased by 1.06% on January 6, with Weiman Sealing leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4083.67, up 1.5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.55, up 1.4% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Weiman Sealing (301161) closed at 37.97, up 5.97% with a trading volume of 145,900 shares and a transaction value of 541 million [1] - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) closed at 34.44, up 4.81% with a trading volume of 240,700 shares and a transaction value of 79.56 million [1] - Wanto Hydraulic (920839) closed at 44.38, up 4.60% with a trading volume of 20,000 shares and a transaction value of 87.53 million [1] - Other notable performers include Hengli Drilling Tools (920942) up 4.49%, Zhejiang Dingli (603338) up 3.24%, and Sany Heavy Industry (600031) up 2.92% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector experienced a net outflow of 16.66 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 22.87 million [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) had a net inflow of 15.14 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 35.55 million from retail investors [3] - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) saw a net inflow of 52.48 million from institutional investors, with retail investors withdrawing 27.04 million [3] - Weiman Sealing (301161) had a net inflow of 45.66 million from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 60.31 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese enterprises are embracing a new global upcycle in the excavator market, with overseas excavator sales recovering from -15% in January 2025 to +14% in October 2025, indicating a synchronized global demand recovery [1] Group 1: Market Insights - Japan's construction machinery demand remains resilient despite a significant drop in downstream demand post-bubble economy, with excavator ownership only declining by 30% [2] - In Japan, domestic sales are decoupling from real estate, leading to a stable sales volume, with a shift towards rental and second-hand export models [2] - China's excavator operating hours are still at a high level, providing a buffer for demand, supported by replacement needs and decoupling from real estate [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. market faces a long-term shortage of excavator ownership, with stock replacement driving demand, supported by both residential and non-residential investments [3] - Future growth drivers include structural support from AI data center infrastructure, the return of U.S. manufacturing boosting large-scale infrastructure growth, and potential stimulation of the housing market following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [3] - Historical insights from Komatsu's entry into the U.S. market highlight the importance of macro factors, quality, company culture, and localization in overcoming market barriers [3] - Chinese manufacturers are positioned to capitalize on the shift of U.S. construction machinery from premium brands to more general industrial products, leveraging their supply chain advantages and manufacturing efficiency [3] Group 3: Asia, Africa, and Latin America Market - The Asia, Africa, and Latin America markets are primarily driven by mining and energy sectors, with Chinese brands capturing over 40% of the excavator market share in these regions by 2023 [4] - China's infrastructure investment is effectively replacing energy imports from these regions, indicating a strategic link between excavator exports and infrastructure development [4] - The potential for new excavator markets to grow by 60% exists if the share of second-hand excavators from Europe and the U.S. in these regions decreases from 50% to 20% [4] - Chinese enterprises are transitioning from commodity exports to capital exports, establishing local manufacturing in Indonesia to enhance market share and create new pathways into developed countries [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry (600031), XCMG Machinery (000425), Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157), LiuGong Machinery (000528), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100) [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the mechanical industry in 2026, driven by structural transformation and a rebound in external demand [3][4] - The report introduces a "risk排雷" manual to proactively identify potential market misjudgments and challenges within various sectors [3][4] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with growth in engineering machinery, industrial gases, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium battery equipment [6][8] - Key assumptions include continued government support for emerging technology industries and a stable macroeconomic recovery [11][16] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a cyclical upturn, with increased overseas market share and a gradual domestic renewal cycle [17] - Key growth drivers include global market expansion, improved domestic demand due to favorable macro policies, and a stabilizing domestic infrastructure and real estate market [17] Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is on an upward trend, with demand supported by a variety of vessel types and improving profitability for shipyards [19] - The sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints driving up ship prices and a focus on high-end, large-scale, dual-fuel vessels [20] Export Chain - The export chain is optimistic about demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. market, with a focus on strategic exports and emerging markets [22] - Key assumptions include a favorable trade environment and ongoing industrial shifts towards resource-rich countries [22] Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is viewed positively, with expectations of volume and price increases leading to improved valuations [27] - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the sector and recommends focusing on those with operational highlights in niche markets [30] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to emerge from a downturn, with solid-state battery technology creating significant market opportunities [51] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in market size, projecting a growth from 2.06 billion in 2025 to 33.62 billion by 2030 [51] Wind Power Equipment - The wind power industry is projected to maintain high growth, particularly in offshore wind projects, with significant investments expected [63] - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers and components that support the offshore wind market [64] Testing and Inspection - The testing and inspection sector is expected to see upward momentum, driven by increasing demand and a trend towards consolidation among leading firms [71] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on emerging fields and the long-term growth potential of comprehensive testing companies [71] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from steady investment in fixed assets and high demand for passenger and freight transport [75] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the high-speed train sector and recommends key players in the industry [76] Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is anticipated to thrive due to sustained demand driven by oil prices and energy security concerns [79] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technical barriers and those benefiting from domestic and international market opportunities [80]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, highlighting strong growth potential in semiconductor equipment and humanoid robots [1][20]. Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see a significant increase in capital expenditure and domestic equipment localization, with new order growth potentially exceeding 30% and reaching over 50% [2][18]. - The humanoid robot industry is approaching mass production, with key events such as the release of Tesla's V3 robot expected to catalyze order growth and market expansion [3][32]. - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to experience a seasonal surge in Q1, driven by policy support and increased project initiation, with a projected annual growth rate of over 30% for excavators [3][33]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to rise due to increased shipments of AI servers, necessitating automation in production processes [4][35]. - The gas turbine market is poised for growth as AI data centers expand, with domestic manufacturers likely to benefit from increased demand for reliable power solutions [8][31]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - Longxin's IPO plans indicate a total investment of 34.5 billion yuan, primarily for technology upgrades in memory chip production, signaling a robust growth trajectory for the sector [2]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach 495 billion yuan in 2024, with a localization rate expected to rise to 22% by 2025 [18][19]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is set for significant changes with the upcoming release of Tesla's V3 robot, which is expected to drive orders and market standardization [3][32]. - Key companies to watch include Hengli Hydraulic and Top Group, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in this sector [3]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is entering a recovery phase, with Q1 typically seeing increased activity due to favorable weather and policy support [3][33]. - Major players such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG are expected to lead this recovery, with projected sales growth driven by domestic and international demand [33]. Optical Modules - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly due to the rising shipments of AI servers, with automation becoming essential in production processes [4][35]. - Companies like Robotech and Aotewi are highlighted as key players in this space [4]. Gas Turbines - The expansion of AI data centers is driving demand for gas turbines, with domestic manufacturers like Jereh and Yingliu expected to capture significant market share [8][31]. - The gas turbine market is characterized by a shift towards domestic production, with companies forming partnerships with international leaders to enhance capabilities [8].

Market Overview - The market is expected to experience style differentiation as it approaches the Spring Festival, maintaining a structural trend under narrow fluctuations[4] - Key focus areas include the release of December and annual economic data in late January and a concentrated period of earnings forecasts[4] Investment Strategy - The strategy emphasizes three main lines: 1. High-growth and high-elasticity sectors, including AI hardware (e.g., optical modules), energy storage, lithium batteries, and non-ferrous metals[4] 2. Market hot tracks such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and cultural tourism[4] 3. Low-position large financial sectors, focusing on high-certainty performance in brokerage, insurance, and banks with dividend expectations[4] Recommended Stocks - **Metals**: Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. (000807.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.87 in 2025 and a PE of 17.6[28] - **Chemicals**: Yara International (000893.SZ) with a projected EPS of 2.06 in 2025 and a PE of 23.3[28] - **New Energy**: Slin Smart Drive (301550.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.32 in 2025 and a PE of 105.0[28] - **Machinery**: Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with a projected EPS of 2.19 in 2025 and a PE of 50.2[28] - **Aerospace**: AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group (000768.SZ) with a projected EPS of 0.42 in 2025 and a PE of 60.3[28] - **Banking**: Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH) with a projected EPS of 1.76 in 2025 and a PE of 5.9[28] - **Non-Banking**: New China Life Insurance (601336.SH) with a projected EPS of 11.82 in 2025 and a PE of 5.9[28] - **Social Services**: Jin Jiang International (600754.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.89 in 2025 and a PE of 28.3[28] - **Electronics**: Dongshan Precision (002384.SZ) with a projected EPS of 0.77 in 2025 and a PE of 109.8[28] - **Telecommunications**: Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) with a projected EPS of 9.47 in 2025 and a PE of 64.4[28] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, leading to slow growth or stagnation[34] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could adversely affect performance[34]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO has been accepted, indicating a potential boom in the domestic rocket launch market in 2026, with the company leading in the development of reusable rockets [7][21] - The report highlights the expected increase in the frequency of rocket launches, driven by advancements in reusable rocket technology and favorable conditions for commercial rocket companies to go public [21] - The robotics sector is anticipated to experience significant growth in Q1 2026, particularly influenced by Tesla's V3 release and mass production, with a focus on leading companies like Hengli Hydraulic [21] - The report identifies various segments within the machinery industry, noting differing trends: general machinery remains under pressure, engineering machinery is accelerating upward, while shipbuilding is stabilizing and oil service equipment is bottoming out [22][30][36][41] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Chaojie Co., Feiwo Technology, Guanglian Aviation, and Hengli Hydraulic [13] 2. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index rose by 1.32% over the last week, ranking 5th among 31 primary industry categories, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.59% [15] 3. Core Insights Update - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO acceptance is a significant indicator of the upcoming boom in the domestic rocket launch market, with substantial contracts already secured [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-frequency launches and the potential for commercial rocket companies to list publicly, creating investment opportunities in this sector [21] - The robotics industry is expected to see a strong market focus in early 2026, particularly with Tesla's developments impacting the supply chain [21] 4. Key Data Tracking 4.1 General Machinery - The general machinery sector is under continued pressure, with the manufacturing PMI recently rising to 50.1%, marking the first increase above the threshold in eight months [22] - Forklift sales in November 2025 reached 119,749 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [22] 4.2 Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing an upward trend, with excavator sales in November 2025 totaling 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% [30] 4.3 Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector shows steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% growth since 2025 [36] 4.4 Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is stabilizing, with the global new ship price index at 184.33, indicating a slowdown in price declines [38] 4.5 Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with high activity in natural gas development in the Middle East [41] 4.6 Industrial Gases - The report notes that declining raw material prices are improving steel profitability, which is expected to boost industrial gas demand [43] 4.7 Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025 [45][47]

1）美联储降息周期下的海外需求复苏：2026年美联储降息预期强化，美元利率下行将带动全球工业品需求回暖，带动工具、园林、 家装等与房地产周期高度相关的品类需求。 2）"一带一路"沿线国家基建需求旺盛："一带一路"沿线国家基建需求持续旺盛，中东地区天然气开采高景气，国产油服设备商跟随 跟随EPC总包项目出海，业绩有望持续高增。工程机械出口在2025年1-10月实现出口额485.26亿元，同比增长12%，其中对新兴市场出口同 比增长18%。 01 AI驱动成长，看好AI端侧以及算力基建两个领域的投资机会： 中国装备制造行业经历几十年发展，经历了劳动力驱动——资本驱动——能源驱动的发展阶段，目前进入到了科技驱动的发展阶段，科技 创新是未来几十年装备制造业成长的主旋律。看好AI 端侧以及算力基建两个领域的投资机会： 1）AI端侧：人形机器人、智能制造+AI （移动机器人、协作机械人等）、各类消费端的AI 端侧产品（如：AI 手机、AI 眼镜、AI 戒 指等）在未来将呈现快速增长的趋势，由此3C设备将进入新一轮的景气周期，对训练、推理、存储等芯片的需求也将带动半导体设备的新 一轮投资周期； 2）算力基建：AI 端侧的落 ...

Group 1: Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is gradually shifting focus from a single narrative around AI to a broader range of sectors, suggesting that a new investment theme for 2026 is emerging as the market stabilizes and industry rotation accelerates [5][12][15] - The report highlights that the recent rally in the market is driven by a recovery in global risk assets, with expectations of a cross-year market trend starting to take shape [5][12] Group 2: Metal Industry Insights - The report notes that the sharp rise in non-ferrous metals is likely driven by increased demand from high-margin and growth-oriented sectors, which are more tolerant of price increases [5][13] - It emphasizes that the relationship between metal prices and AI investments is similar to the past dynamics between coal/power and new energy sectors, indicating a potential for significant price movements in metals due to AI-related consumption [5][13] Group 3: Currency and Trade Dynamics - The report discusses a new cycle of RMB appreciation, driven by changes in export structure and settlement methods, suggesting that the impact of RMB appreciation on export competitiveness may be less severe than previously thought [6][14] - It highlights that the current high-value export sectors in China possess significant market share and production capacity, which enhances their resilience against trade protectionism [6][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, including copper, aluminum, tin, lithium, crude oil, and oil transportation [7][15] - It also suggests investing in Chinese equipment export chains that have confirmed cyclical bottoms, such as power grid equipment, energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery [7][15] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - For Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ), the report recommends a long-term investment due to favorable conditions for aluminum exports and potential price increases driven by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [17] - For Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH), the report highlights the company's growth potential due to rising global market share and collaboration with leading companies in robotics [18] - For China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), the report notes the expected improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics and the company's large fleet size as key growth drivers [21] - For Li Ning (2331.HK), the report points to management improvements and the upcoming Olympic cycle as catalysts for growth [24] - For Blue Special Optics (688127.SH) and Shengyi Technology (600183.SH), the report emphasizes strong demand in downstream sectors and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [26][27] - For Te Bao Biological (688278.SH), the report highlights the expected commercial success of its growth hormone product and the potential for new indications to drive revenue growth [28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that the global excavator market is entering a new upward cycle, with overseas excavator sales recovering from -15% in January 2025 to +14% in October 2025. The recovery point of the cycle has arrived, with major growth regions including the US, Western Europe, Japan, and Asia-Pacific experiencing acceleration in demand [18][20]. - Chinese companies have successfully established a presence in overseas markets, with their market share in Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Russian-speaking regions exceeding 30% by 2024, and over 5% in Europe and North America [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of tailored strategies for different markets, highlighting Japan, the US, and Asia-Pacific as key areas for in-depth analysis [20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The global excavator market is experiencing a new upward cycle, with significant recovery in sales and demand across various regions [18]. Long-Cycle Perspective on Global Market Differences - Mature markets show relatively stable demand, while emerging markets exhibit greater volatility. The global earthmoving machinery sales have increased from 450,000 units in 2000 to an estimated 1,170,000 units in 2024 [25]. - The report categorizes the global market into four types: emerging markets (India), semi-mature markets (China), mature markets (Europe and North America), and stock markets (Japan) [26]. Japan Market: Stock Market and Demand Growth - Japan's construction machinery market has stabilized after experiencing significant downturns, with a focus on replacement cycles rather than new demand. The report notes that even during economic downturns, the decline in excavator ownership was less severe than the drop in construction investment [60][67]. US Market: High Value and Market Barriers - The US market is characterized by long-term upward demand driven by insufficient equipment stock and ongoing investments in residential and non-residential sectors. The report discusses the potential for Chinese companies to penetrate the US market by leveraging their competitive advantages [60]. Belt and Road Initiative: Potential Market Space - The Belt and Road Initiative is identified as a key area for growth, with demand driven by mining and infrastructure projects. The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to increase their market share in these regions [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, indicating strong growth potential in the excavator market [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment sector [5][11]. Core Views - The establishment of the humanoid robot and embodied intelligence standardization technical committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is expected to promote standardized development in the humanoid robot industry [2][19]. - ByteDance plans to invest $23 billion in artificial intelligence in 2026, indicating a strong commitment to AI infrastructure investment [3][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - The MIIT's new committee will focus on developing industry standards across various areas, which is anticipated to enhance the industry's structured growth [2][19]. - Long-term investment opportunities in humanoid robots are viewed positively, with recommendations to focus on companies with strong positions in the supply chain, such as Feirongda, Longxi Co., Weiman Sealing, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [2][8]. AI Infrastructure - ByteDance's significant capital expenditure plan for AI infrastructure highlights ongoing investment trends among major companies, with a focus on expanding related supply chains [3][20]. - Key areas of interest include gas turbines and liquid cooling solutions, with specific companies recommended for investment, such as Yingliu Co., Wanze Co., and others involved in energy supply for AI data centers [3][8]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Several companies are rated as "Outperform," including: - Green's Harmonics (688017.SH) with a target price of 169.48 CNY and a market cap of 31.1 billion CNY [11][27]. - Huichuan Technology (300124.SZ) with a target price of 73.30 CNY and a market cap of 198.4 billion CNY [11][27]. - Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) with a target price of 108.61 CNY and a market cap of 145.6 billion CNY [11][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong market positions and growth potential in both humanoid robotics and AI infrastructure sectors [8][11].