该行偏好核心业务稳定或正在复苏，同时能受惠于新兴推动力的企业，首选股份为恒立液压、三一重 工、三一国际及极兔速递，当中恒立液压获"高度确信跑赢大市"评级，其余股份获"跑赢大市"评级。 里昂发表研报指，中国工业板块正出现三大关键推动力，包括矿业设备需求上升、人形机器人供应链成 熟，以及快递行业整合。就核心业务而言，该行预期设备更换周期将持续，加上电网及可再生能源投资 创新高，将推动挖掘机销售增长约10%。一线供应商的海外工厂已准备就绪，将于下半年启动人形机器 人量产；而受锂相关领域强劲及价格上升带动，自动化需求预计按年复苏约5%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the robotics industry, indicating a projected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the breakthrough of Figure Helix 02, which achieves full-body autonomous control in humanoid robots, enabling them to perform complex tasks in various scenarios. This advancement opens new commercial opportunities for humanoid robots [2][4]. - The report emphasizes that the humanoid robotics sector is undergoing significant technological transformations and exploring practical applications, with 2026 expected to be a pivotal year for commercialization [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing rapid advancements, particularly with the introduction of Figure Helix 02, which marks a significant leap in autonomous control capabilities [2][4]. Key Developments - Figure Helix 02 can autonomously perform 61 coordinated actions without human intervention, showcasing its potential in household and restaurant environments. It can execute tasks such as walking, picking, stacking, and precise operations like opening bottle caps and sorting items in cluttered environments [4]. Technical Breakthroughs - The Helix 02 model introduces a "three-level collaborative" control architecture, utilizing a single neural network to replace millions of lines of code, thus achieving human-like natural movements. It integrates high-sensitivity tactile sensors and multi-dimensional cameras for precise control [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core component suppliers in the robotics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as Changying Precision, Hengli Hydraulic, and others for their growth potential [4][5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview Humanoid Robot and EV Supply Chain - The conference focused on the China humanoid robot and EV supply chain sector, with meetings held from January 19-22, 2026, involving various companies in the robotics and automotive sectors [1] - Major component suppliers are preparing for the debut of Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 in the first half of 2026, with batch shipments expected in the second half of 2026 [1] - Suppliers for Unitree's humanoid robot anticipate significant year-over-year shipment growth in 2026, leading to over 100% growth in humanoid robot-related sales [1] - Key component manufacturers are increasing production capacity and expect cost reductions through mass production and product standardization [1] Auto/EV OEMs & Supply Chain Sales Trends and Cost Pressures - Weak auto and EV sales trends are continuing into January 2026, attributed to cuts in EV purchase tax subsidies and incomplete trade-in subsidies [2] - Chery plans to launch new models post-Lunar New Year in February 2026 [2] - BOM (bill of materials) costs for EV models are estimated to increase by approximately RMB4,500-5,000 due to rising prices of lithium carbonate, memory, copper, and aluminum [2] - Seyond expects price reductions in LiDAR, which may alleviate some cost pressures for OEMs [2] Battery Sector Growth and Cost Management - CALB and Gotion are targeting over 50% year-over-year shipment growth, aiming for 180 GWh and 150 GWh respectively in 2026, driven by ESS demand and electrification of commercial vehicles [3] - Both companies plan to expand their effective capacities to 200 GWh by 2026 [3] - Upstream cost pressures from lithium carbonate and LiPF6 are expected to be partially passed through to customers, with ESS customers more likely to accept price hikes than EV customers [3] Company-Specific Insights Wolong Electric - Anticipates humanoid robot-related revenue to double year-over-year in 2026, with a projected revenue of around RMB100 million from humanoid robots in 2025 [8] - The company is investing in a data collection center for humanoid robots, focusing on motion capture [8] ZD Leader - Expects humanoid robot-related revenue to increase from RMB50 million in 2025 to over RMB100 million in 2026, driven by orders from a leading local robot maker [9] - The average selling price of its planetary reducers is expected to decline in the long term [9] Changsheng Bearing - Currently, humanoid robot-related revenue accounts for less than 1% of total revenue, but significant growth is expected [10] - Management anticipates a 20% CAGR in the auto industry, supported by rising content value and market share gains [10] Precision Tsugami China - Achieved over 15,000 unit shipments of machine tools in 2025, with a revenue of over RMB5 billion [11] - Management expects over 10% year-over-year shipment growth in 2026, driven by demand from various sectors [11] Seyond - Projects over 1 million units of LiDAR shipments in 2026, with a focus on ADAS products [13] - Expects average selling prices to drop but gross profit margins to improve due to economies of scale [13] Inovance - Expects continued recovery in the factory automation sector, with strong demand from the battery and 3C sectors [14] - New businesses in robotics and industrial software are anticipated to drive long-term growth [15][16] Hengli Hydraulic - Aims for 20-30% revenue growth in 2026, with significant contributions from its partnership with Caterpillar [17] - Targets RMB300-500 million in sales from screw and linear guide business in 2026 [18] CALB - Targets over 180 GWh in battery shipments for 2026, with a focus on mid-to-high-end EV models [19] - Plans to increase production capacity to 200 GWh by 2026 and expects to pass through lithium carbonate price hikes to customers [20][21] JAC - Expects a net loss of RMB1.68 billion in 2025 but aims for 50,000 units shipment for its Maextro brand in 2026 [23] - The Maextro brand is expected to improve profitability in 2026 due to rising capacity utilization [23] Gotion Hi-Tech - Targets 150 GWh in battery shipments for 2026, with significant expansion in production capacity planned [27][28] Chery - Aims for 3 million units in volume sales for 2026, with a 50% penetration rate for EV sales [30] - Expects stable net profit per vehicle despite BOM cost increases [31] Bethel - Projects over 20% revenue growth in 2026, with a focus on new product introductions [32] - Anticipates relatively weak customer orders in the first quarter of 2026 [32] Conclusion - The conference highlighted significant growth opportunities in the humanoid robot and EV sectors, with various companies preparing for increased demand and addressing cost pressures through strategic planning and partnerships.

Market Overview - The engineering machinery sector experienced a decline of 1.06% on January 29, with Zhigao Machinery leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the engineering machinery sector included: - Construction Machinery (600984) with a closing price of 4.08, up 4.08% on a trading volume of 605,000 shares and a transaction value of 245 million [1] - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) closed at 43.28, up 1.81% with a trading volume of 113,000 shares and a transaction value of 487 million [1] - Tietuo Machinery (920706) closed at 28.45, up 1.72% with a trading volume of 39,300 shares and a transaction value of 111 million [1] - Decliners included: - Zhigao Machinery (920101) closed at 45.72, down 3.75% with a trading volume of 45,200 shares and a transaction value of 211 million [2] - Hengli Hydraulic (601100) closed at 108.90, down 3.03% with a trading volume of 106,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.17 billion [2] - Tuoshan Heavy Industry (001226) closed at 48.78, down 3.02% with a trading volume of 13,300 shares and a transaction value of 66.05 million [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a net outflow of 322 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 162 million [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Xugong Machinery (000425) with a net inflow of 60.78 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 32.23 million from retail investors [3] - Hailunzhe (300201) had a net inflow of 35.86 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 45.19 million [3] - Construction Machinery (600984) saw a net inflow of 31.44 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 27.89 million from retail investors [3]

这种分化不仅体现在出货量上，更关键的是谁能完成从实际部署到迭代改进的闭环——包括模型优化、任务能力提升和成本控制。尽管单位出货量快速增 长，但机器人操作能力的改进速度仍然缓慢，受限于模型、数据和算力。 摩根士丹利警告，中国人形机器人行业已从PPT演示阶段进入真刀真枪的量产竞争期。 据追风交易台信息，摩根士丹利调研团队于1月26-28日密集走访了多家整机厂商（傅利叶、开普勒、MagicBot）和核心零部件供应商（绿的谐波、恒立液 压、双林股份、振宇协能、福莱特、卧龙电驱、思灵科技），分析师观察到一个关键变化：领先者与落后者之间的差距正在迅速扩大，首轮行业洗牌即将到 来。 大摩分析师认为，具备技术实力和量产能力的核心零部件供应商将在这轮产业化浪潮中占据主导地位。随着2026年行业出货量实现数倍增长，具备先发优势 的供应商将获得显著的市场份额和定价权。 2026年出货量将实现数倍跃升 大摩调研显示，所有整机厂商都对2026年出货量持乐观预期。一家领先的国内整机厂商2025年出货量已超过5000台，2026年预计将实现数倍增长。其他厂商 的具体目标包括：傅利叶目标2000台（2025年为400-500台）；Magic ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley warns that the humanoid robot industry in China has transitioned from the PPT presentation stage to a competitive mass production phase [1] - The gap between industry leaders and laggards is rapidly widening, indicating an impending first round of industry reshuffling [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - All surveyed manufacturers are optimistic about shipment volumes for 2026, with one leading domestic manufacturer expecting over 5,000 units in 2025 and several times that in 2026 [2] - Specific targets include: Fourier aiming for 2,000 units (up from 400-500 in 2025), MagicBot over 1,000 units, and Kepler 300 units (up from 70-80 in 2025) [2] - Component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic and Slin Technology are preparing capacity based on North American manufacturers' production plans, aiming for 1,000 units per week by July 2026, increasing to 2,500 units by year-end [2] Group 2: Differentiation in Capabilities - A decisive difference in task capabilities and execution efficiency has emerged among manufacturers, with the industry expected to move beyond video demonstrations by 2025 [3] - The ability to complete the feedback loop from deployment to iterative improvement is critical, including model optimization and cost control [3] - Lagging startups may struggle to catch up during the industry's acceleration phase, with a first round of reshuffling likely to occur soon [3] Group 3: Component Supplier Dynamics - The market for component suppliers shows a clear advantage for leaders with stronger technical capabilities and mass production abilities [4] - Suppliers are shifting from single component competition to module-level product offerings, which helps clients reduce integration complexity and improve quality control [4] - Overseas expansion is becoming a key focus, with leading domestic manufacturers only contributing a single-digit percentage to overseas sales last year [4] Group 4: Application Scenarios - Manufacturers are exploring repeatable and scalable application cases across various sectors, including industrial, retail, medical, and logistics [5] - A gradual development trajectory is anticipated, driven by human-machine collaboration rather than rapid universal breakthroughs [5] - Leading manufacturers expect one-third of 2026 shipments to come from entertainment/commercial services, another third from industrial/data collection, and the remainder from R&D [5]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that AI is reshaping manufacturing demand, with mature manufacturing moving towards global markets, and the mechanical industry is expected to benefit significantly from technology and export growth in 2026 [1][9][10] - The mechanical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 by 23.25 percentage points in 2025, with a 40.91% increase in the mechanical industry index compared to a 17.66% increase in the CSI 300 [9][10] - AI technology is expected to have a profound impact on the manufacturing industry, with AI infrastructure reshaping demand patterns and applications driving hardware manufacturing equipment demand [9][11] Group 2 - The report predicts that 2026 will see a significant increase in demand for equipment driven by AI infrastructure, including semiconductor equipment, liquid cooling equipment, and gas turbines [13] - The demand for AI hardware manufacturing equipment and components, such as humanoid robots and 3C automation equipment, is expected to rise [13] - Export-oriented equipment, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, is anticipated to show strong growth in 2026 [13] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow, with global sales expected to reach $125.5 billion in 2025, a 7.4% increase, and further growth to $138.1 billion in 2026 [34][40] - The report highlights that the domestic semiconductor equipment market in China is expected to reach approximately 230 billion yuan in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [41] - The PCB industry is entering a new development cycle driven by AI demand, with a projected global PCB market value of approximately $73.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year increase [54][56] Group 4 - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential due to the increasing power consumption of AI servers, with the global liquid cooling component market expected to reach $5-10 billion in 2025 and $25 billion by 2030 [84][86] - The report indicates that the demand for liquid cooling solutions will significantly increase as AI processing power continues to rise, making traditional cooling methods inadequate [70][84] - The introduction of advanced liquid cooling systems, such as NVIDIA's GB200 and GB300, is expected to drive market growth and innovation in cooling technologies [84][86]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Positive" rating, with specific companies recommended for "Increase" ratings: Zhonglian Heavy Industry (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [4][34]. Core Insights - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a recovery in demand due to the rollout of key projects and favorable policies for large-scale equipment updates. Excavator sales in 2025 are projected to reach 235,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 17% [4]. - In the robotics sector, the humanoid robot industry remains vibrant, with significant events such as the upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus 3. The year 2026 is seen as a critical development period for the industry, with several companies pursuing IPOs [4]. - The tower crane utilization rate in December 2025 was reported at 55.1%, indicating a slight decrease from the previous month [12]. Industry News - In December 2025, the profit growth for industrial enterprises above designated size was 0.6%, with total profits amounting to 73,982 billion [12]. - The tower crane rental price index was recorded at 496.52 points, down 5.65 points from the previous month [12]. Company Announcements - Jiechang Drive announced a projected net profit increase of 40.00% to 55.00% for 2025, with expected profits between 394.77 million and 437.06 million [24]. - Aiko Optoelectronics forecasted a staggering net profit growth of 262.52% to 345.20% for 2025, with profits expected to range from 57 million to 70 million [25].

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Hydraulic's stock performance shows a slight increase in the short term, with a notable rise in revenue and net profit year-on-year, indicating a positive financial trajectory for the company [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 27, Hengli Hydraulic's stock rose by 2.01%, reaching 113.74 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 564 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.38%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 152.5 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Hengli Hydraulic's stock price has increased by 3.48%, with a 0.99% decline over the last five trading days, a 4.72% increase over the last 20 days, and an 18.75% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.09 billion CNY, which is a 16.49% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Hengli Hydraulic has distributed a total of 6.18 billion CNY in dividends, with 3.11 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Hengli Hydraulic is 36,900, a decrease of 15.76% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 18.70% to 36,379 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth largest, holding 118 million shares, an increase of 15.19 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industry sectors mentioned [2]. Core Insights - The overall industry strategy focuses on the simultaneous rise in energy storage volume and price, with ongoing themes in space and AI [3]. - The new energy vehicle supply chain is entering an upward cycle, benefiting companies like CATL and EVE Energy due to the electrification upgrade and optimization of energy storage patterns [3]. - By the end of December 2025, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure is expected to reach 20.092 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.7% [3]. - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 640 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 82.9%, with CATL maintaining a leading position [3][25]. - The solid-state battery sector is entering a critical phase of engineering and industrialization, with companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Peking University Technology benefiting [4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage and New Energy - The energy storage trend continues to improve, with companies like Sungrow Power and Huaneng Power benefiting from a significant increase in domestic procurement, which exceeded 100 GWh for the first time [5]. - The average price of lithium battery storage systems has rebounded by 6.39% to 0.5226 yuan/Wh [5]. - AI expansion and global grid upgrades are driving demand for power equipment, benefiting companies like TBEA and Sanyuan Electric [5]. Lithium Carbonate and Battery Materials - The supply and demand for lithium carbonate are exceeding expectations, with companies like Salt Lake Potash and Hunan Youneng benefiting from favorable market conditions [4]. - The cost of phosphoric iron lithium cathode materials has increased, with processing fees rising by 318.7 yuan/ton compared to November averages [4][27]. AI and Robotics in New Energy - The integration of AI and humanoid robots in the new energy sector is gaining traction, with companies like Zhejiang Rongtai and Keda Li benefiting from advancements in robotics [7]. - Tesla's shift towards becoming a robotics company is expected to create new growth cycles, with significant implications for the automotive industry [7][26]. Market Trends and Projections - The report highlights that the global energy storage battery shipment is expected to reach 1,090 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 70% [25]. - The market for commercial energy storage products is evolving, with larger capacity batteries becoming mainstream and driving innovation in the sector [29].