Financial Performance and Key Indicators - The company achieved revenue and profit growth despite a 25% decline in the industry last year, primarily due to an increase in global market share and contributions from hydraulic cylinders and valves [1] - In Q1 of this year, the excavator segment experienced a decline of 20-30%, but the COR segment showed good growth, leading to a slight overall decrease in performance [1] - The company expects a recovery in Q2, with April showing positive growth and an acceleration in revenue growth anticipated [1][4] Profitability Analysis - The improvement in profitability is attributed to cost reduction efforts, declining raw material prices, and optimization of product structure, resulting in higher profit margins compared to older products [2] New Products and Market Expansion - New products such as electric steel, clothing guide rails, and hydraulic accessories are expected to contribute several hundred million in revenue [3] - The upcoming production of the Mexico factory is anticipated to add to performance, with faster growth expected in various segments starting next year [3] Annual Performance Forecast - The company forecasts at least a 10% increase in annual revenue, with potential for higher growth by the end of Q3, although Q4 remains uncertain due to high base effects from the previous year [4] Industry Trend Analysis - Domestic demand in the excavator industry is showing signs of recovery, while overseas markets, particularly excavator exports, are expected to decline but not significantly [5] Cost and Gross Margin Management - Despite some raw material price increases, the company has managed to mitigate the impact on gross margins through inventory management and favorable supplier pricing [6] Global Layout and Tariff Impact - The company plans to produce in Mexico to reduce the impact of U.S. tariffs, with overseas profit margins expected to recover to levels similar to domestic ones [7] European Market and New Factories - New factories in Germany and France are being planned to enhance capacity and product variety, with the German factory expected to address current facility issues [8] New Product Revenue and Profit Expectations - The linear actuator project has begun production, with expectations of generating tens of millions in revenue this year, although it may still incur losses [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's performance in Q1 and outlook for the year? - In Q1, despite a 25% industry decline, the excavator segment remained stable, benefiting from increased global market share, particularly in hydraulic cylinders and valves. The COR segment also showed good growth, leading to stable profitability with a 1% increase in gross margin. The company expects Q2 revenue growth to exceed 10% due to increased production and new product contributions [9] Question: What are the expectations for revenue growth in Q2 and the full year? - The company anticipates Q2 revenue growth to exceed 10%, with April showing positive growth and further acceleration expected. For the full year, revenue growth is also projected to exceed 10%, with potential for higher growth by Q3, although Q4 remains uncertain due to high base effects [10] Question: What is the outlook for domestic and international excavator markets? - The company believes domestic demand for excavators has recovered, with annual growth expected to reach 5-10% or higher. However, overseas excavator exports are expected to decline, but the decrease will be modest [11] Question: How is the non-excavator segment performing? - The non-excavator segments, including aerial work platforms, offshore, maritime, and industrial sectors, are expected to show good growth in the first half of the year, with continued high growth in the second half, particularly in hydraulic cylinders and valves [12] Question: How does raw material price fluctuation affect gross margins? - The company primarily uses steel, and while prices are currently declining, it does not typically hedge against price increases. Instead, it maintains a three-quarter inventory and benefits from favorable supplier pricing, minimizing the impact of raw material fluctuations [13] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding U.S. tariffs on construction machinery? - The company plans to start production in Mexico next year to mitigate the impact of the 25% U.S. tariff on construction machinery, expecting overseas profit margins to align more closely with domestic levels [14] Question: What is the status of the Mexico factory and future plans? - The Mexico factory is nearing completion and is expected to start production within two months. The company is also considering building factories in Germany and France, as well as potential investments in the U.S. [15] Question: What are the revenue and net margin expectations for the Mexico factory? - The Mexico factory is expected to generate revenue of 100-200 million this year, with net margins likely lower than domestic levels. By next year, revenue could reach 700-800 million, with net margins improving to 10-20% [16] Question: What is the progress and revenue expectation for the linear actuator project? - The linear actuator project began production last year, with samples sent to customers and batch shipments expected to start in Q3. While the project may incur losses this year, profitability is anticipated next year, targeting several hundred million in revenue [17] Question: What is the company's approach to product pricing? - The company's pricing strategy is primarily based on foreign competitors' pricing, as most similar products in the market are produced by foreign companies [29] Question: What is the expected capital expenditure and production capacity for the new European factories? - The capital expenditure for the new factories in Germany and France is estimated to be between 100-200 million RMB, with production capacity expected to be in the range of 100-200 million [25]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 65.00 CNY, indicating a potential upside of approximately 19% from the current price of 54.36 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading player in the hydraulic cylinder market, leveraging its strong product quality and rapid service response to gain market share in the domestic excavator market. The company has successfully transitioned from being a domestic supplier to a global player, supplying to major international brands like Caterpillar [5][10]. - The company has diversified its product offerings beyond hydraulic cylinders to include hydraulic pumps, valves, and motors, which are expected to replicate the success of its hydraulic cylinder business. This diversification is anticipated to provide significant revenue growth in the coming years [6][12]. - The company has maintained a strong focus on research and development, which has enabled it to enhance its product offerings and expand into high-value segments of the hydraulic market [19][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Market Position - The company was founded in 2005 and has evolved from producing pneumatic components to becoming a leader in high-pressure hydraulic cylinders. It has successfully penetrated the domestic market and is now expanding internationally [1][10]. - The company has established a strong supply chain and customer base, including partnerships with major global brands, which has significantly enhanced its competitive position [10][11]. 2. Financial Performance and Projections - The company reported a revenue of 8.985 billion CNY in 2023, with projections of 9.966 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9%. The net profit for 2023 was 2.499 billion CNY, expected to grow to 2.724 billion CNY in 2024 [3][6]. - The report forecasts continued growth in revenue and net profit through 2026, with expected revenues of 11.478 billion CNY and net profits of 3.167 billion CNY by 2025 [3][6]. 3. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully developed a range of hydraulic products, including non-standard hydraulic cylinders, which have shown steady growth and helped mitigate the cyclical nature of the construction machinery market [1][5]. - The company is actively expanding its product lines to include high-end hydraulic components and linear drive systems, which are expected to enhance its market competitiveness and open new growth avenues [6][12]. 4. Competitive Landscape and Industry Trends - The hydraulic market is experiencing steady growth, with increasing demand for hydraulic components in various sectors, including construction, agriculture, and industrial applications. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends due to its established market presence and product innovation [4][10]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic brands to gain market share in the hydraulic sector, as they continue to improve quality and reduce costs compared to foreign competitors [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][4][8] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in performance, with a revenue increase of 9.61% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 8.985 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 6.66%, totaling 2.499 billion yuan [1][2] - The growth in revenue is attributed to the successful launch of new products targeting non-engineering machinery sectors and a continuous increase in overseas sales [1] - The company is actively pursuing internationalization and electrification, with significant progress in its linear actuator projects and the establishment of subsidiaries in Mexico, Singapore, and Brazil [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the gross margin was 41.90%, and the net margin was 27.87%, with slight changes of +1.35 and -0.79 percentage points respectively [1] - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.362 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.70% year-on-year, and a net profit of 602 million yuan, down 3.77% year-on-year [1] - The hydraulic cylinder segment generated 4.693 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, showing a modest growth of 2.37%, while the hydraulic pump and valve segment saw a significant revenue increase of 18.64%, totaling 3.268 billion yuan [1][2] Product and Regional Performance - The hydraulic cylinder sales for excavators decreased by 3.77% due to a downturn in the excavator industry, while non-standard cylinders saw a growth of 16.06% [1] - Domestic revenue reached 6.999 billion yuan, growing by 9.11%, while international revenue was 1.927 billion yuan, increasing by 9.95% [1] - The gross margins for domestic and international sales were 42.71% and 37.45% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.69 and +3.17 percentage points [1] Future Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2025, now expecting net profits of 2.673 billion yuan and 3.137 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 3.688 billion yuan [1][2] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2024-2026 are 26, 22, and 19 times respectively [1]

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 公司快报 2024 年 05 月 08 日 恒 立液压(601100.SH) 证券研究报告 多元化稳步扩张，国际化持续推进 基础件 投资评级 买入-A 事件：公司发布 2023 年年报和 2024 年一季报，2023 年实现 维持评级 收入 89.85 亿元，同比+9.61%，归母净利润 24.99 亿元，同比 6个月目标价 60.6元 +6.66%。2024 年一季度实现收入 23.62 亿元，同比-2.7%，归母 股价 (2024-05-07) 52.83元 净利润 6.02亿元，同比-3.77%。 交易数据 总市值(百万元) 70,835.57 非标业务拉动增长，挖机板块降幅收窄。根据中国工程机械工 流通市值(百万元) 70,835.57 业协会，2023 年及 2024 年 Q1，挖机行业销量分别约为 19.5、 总股本(百万股) 1,340.82 5.0 万台，分别同比-25%、-13.1%。行业持续下行阶段，公司通 流通股本(百万股) 1,340.82 过多元化产品批量，叠加挖机领域市占率提升，公司收入表现优 12个月价格区间 48.51/71 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth is driven by non-excavator products, despite a decline in excavator sales [8]. - The company has shown resilience with a revenue of 8.985 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit of 2.499 billion yuan, up 6.66% [7][9]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with new products and production capacity coming online [8]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 51.08 yuan - One-year high/low: 73.33/47.41 yuan - Market capitalization: 3,088.64 million yuan [2]. Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 89.85 billion yuan, up 9.61% year-on-year - 2023 net profit: 24.99 billion yuan, up 6.66% year-on-year - 2024 Q1 revenue: 23.62 billion yuan, down 2.70% year-on-year - 2024 Q1 net profit: 6.02 billion yuan, down 3.77% year-on-year [7][9]. Product Performance - Revenue from hydraulic cylinders: 4.693 billion yuan, up 2.37% - Revenue from hydraulic pumps and valves: 3.268 billion yuan, up 18.64% - Revenue from hydraulic systems: 292 million yuan, up 15.09% - Revenue from parts and castings: 672 million yuan, up 17.13% [8]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin for 2023: 41.90%, up 1.45 percentage points - Net margin for 2023: 27.87%, down 0.79 percentage points - Sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for 2023: 2.07%, 4.50%, 7.73%, -4.10% respectively [8]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its product lines and production capabilities, with new products and facilities expected to enhance long-term growth potential [8]. - Revised profit forecasts for 2024-2026: 28.49 billion, 33.78 billion, and 40.36 billion yuan respectively [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - Despite the downturn in the excavator industry, the company's excavator segment outperformed the industry, with strong support from non-excavation businesses. In 2023, the sales of non-excavation hydraulic cylinders, pumps, valves, and motors achieved rapid growth year-on-year. The company's internationalization strategy is progressing, with foreign revenue increasing by 10% year-on-year, accounting for approximately 21% of total revenue, and gross margin improving by 3.17 percentage points to 37.45%. The hydraulic component production base in Mexico is expected to begin trial production in Q2 2024, which is likely to further enhance overseas market share. The increase in the proportion of non-standard product revenue has led to a slight rise in the company's gross margin in 2023. Looking ahead, the ongoing diversification and internationalization strategies are expected to contribute to incremental growth, with structural optimization and cost reduction efforts likely to enhance the company's profitability [5][6][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 89.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.99 billion yuan, up 6.66% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 24.47 billion yuan, an increase of 9.67% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 26.40 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.95%, and a net profit of 7.45 billion yuan, up 25.56% year-on-year [5][6]. Business Segments - The non-excavation business showed remarkable growth, with non-standard hydraulic cylinders, pumps, valves, and motors achieving year-on-year sales growth of 6.06%, 410.23%, 43.76%, and 119.18%, respectively. The company is also testing new products such as ball screws and guide rails, which are expected to open new growth avenues in 2024 [5][6]. International Expansion - The company's international market share is gradually increasing, with foreign sales revenue growing by 10% year-on-year, representing about 21% of total revenue. The gross margin for international sales improved by 3.17 percentage points to 37.45%. The establishment of a hydraulic component production base in Mexico is expected to enhance global competitiveness [5][6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin slightly increased by 1.35 percentage points to 41.90% in 2023, primarily due to the rising proportion of new products in non-engineering machinery, which have higher profitability than traditional engineering machinery products. The company has actively pursued cost reduction initiatives, with 343 effective cost reduction projects yielding a total savings of 88.03 million yuan [6][10]. Future Outlook - The domestic engineering machinery industry is expected to stabilize in 2024, with the company's excavator business performing steadily. The ongoing diversification and internationalization strategies are anticipated to continue contributing to growth, while structural optimization and cost reduction efforts are likely to enhance profitability. The company is projected to achieve net profits of 27.27 billion yuan and 32.87 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25 times and 21 times [6][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set above the current price of 51.36 CNY [3] Core Views - The company reported steady performance in its annual and quarterly reports, with 2023 revenue reaching 8.985 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, and a net profit of 2.499 billion CNY, up 6.66% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is diversifying its product offerings and markets, with significant growth in new products outside the traditional engineering machinery sector, which are showing higher profitability [2] - The company is also expanding internationally, with a hydraulic parts production base in Mexico expected to begin trial production in Q2, and a nearly 20% sales growth in its European subsidiary [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.64 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 15.95%, and a net profit of 745 million CNY, up 25.56% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.362 billion CNY, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 602 million CNY, down 3.77% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 41.90%, with a net margin of 27.87% [1] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 2.764 billion CNY, 3.281 billion CNY, and 3.948 billion CNY respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 24.91, 20.99, and 17.44 [2][5]

加冰所 所表述的意见均不构成浙商证券研究所研究观点如果嘉宾发布的观点和浙商研究所发布的观点有分歧或不一致这也仅作为一种不同的研究视角供投资者参考三依照监管要求和保密原则未经合法授权严禁录音记录转发感谢您的理解和配合若本次交流内容不慎流出或涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留追究法律责任的权利再次感谢您对浙商证券的理解和配合谢谢 各位领导 大家上午好 我是浙江政签 机械国防行业首席分析师王华钧今天我们非常荣幸地邀请到了恒力液压的政签事务代表周总来给我们介绍一下恒力液压23年的年报 还有24年一季报的一些交流我们团队这段时间是在加大推荐整个工程机械板块我们认为整个工程机械板块核心的逻辑有两个一个就是最重要的还是全球化 还是中国的工程机械企业想走出去类似于新能源车中国目前已经是全球第一大新能源车的出口国一样我们的挖掘机 我们的启动机 高空作业平台等这些主流的一些主要的工程机械产品与这个非常优异的性价比的优势我们认为走出去这个是大的趋势所以目前的话很多的工程机械企业在海外的这个业绩占比有一些公司的业绩占比在毛利的占比可能已经超过60% 所以海外是一个我们的工程机械产品的市占率会持续提升这样的话也会带动像我们的这个像恒利的一些 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.98 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated steady growth in 2023, achieving a revenue of 8.98 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, and a net profit of 2.50 billion CNY, up 6.7% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 2.64 billion CNY, a 16.0% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 750 million CNY, up 25.6% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2024 reported a revenue of 2.36 billion CNY, down 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 600 million CNY, down 3.8% year-on-year [2][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the domestic hydraulic components industry, having evolved from a single hydraulic cylinder manufacturer to a diversified enterprise with a comprehensive product range including high-pressure cylinders, pumps, valves, and precision castings. It has established manufacturing bases and expanded its global market presence through acquisitions and strategic partnerships [11][14]. 2. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 41.9% in 2023, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs. The net profit margin was 27.8%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, attributed to increased business expansion costs. The first quarter of 2024 saw a gross margin of 40.1% and a net profit margin of 25.5% [2][22][36]. 3. Business Segments - The hydraulic cylinder segment generated a revenue of 4.69 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The sales volume of excavator cylinders decreased by 3.4%, while non-standard cylinders saw a 16% increase. The hydraulic pump and valve segment achieved a revenue of 3.27 billion CNY, up 18.6% year-on-year, with significant growth in non-excavator applications [2][21][22]. 4. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a dominant market share in various hydraulic components, with over 50% in small excavator pumps and valves. It is actively expanding into non-excavator markets, including agricultural machinery and industrial applications, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [2][11][20]. 5. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 2.77 billion CNY, 3.25 billion CNY, and 3.85 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% over the next three years. The target price reflects a 33x PE ratio for 2024 [2][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 annual performance met expectations, while the first quarter of 2024 slightly fell short of expectations [1] - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 8,985 million yuan (+9.6%), with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2,499 million yuan (+6.7%) [1] - The comprehensive gross profit margin for the year was 41.9%, a slight increase from 40.55% in 2022 [1] - The company is expanding its international strategy, with overseas market share gradually increasing [1] - The company is also focusing on the electric drive sector, with initial results from long-term strategic layouts [1] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2,362 million yuan (-2.7%) and a net profit of 602 million yuan (-3.8%) [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 was 40.1%, close to 40.86% from the same period last year [1] - The company expects a rebound in the engineering machinery industry in 2024 due to equipment renewal cycles and policy-driven large-scale updates [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 9,641 million yuan, 11,118 million yuan, and 12,821 million yuan respectively [2][4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 2,761 million yuan, 3,189 million yuan, and 3,680 million yuan respectively [2][4] Market Expansion and Product Development - The company has seen stable growth in non-standard hydraulic cylinder sales, particularly in high-altitude work platforms and industrial applications [1] - The company has developed 103 new products in non-engineering machinery sectors throughout 2023 [1] - The establishment of subsidiaries in Singapore and Brazil is part of the company's strategy to expand its overseas service network [1] Long-term Strategic Initiatives - The electric drive project is progressing, with various infrastructure components completed and initial production expected in Q1 2024 [1] - The company is focusing on providing cost-effective, one-stop system solutions to gain market share [1] - The company anticipates accelerated overseas market expansion following the commissioning of its Mexican factory [1]