Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the securities sector, with the National Securities Leading Index (399437) rising by 0.86% and several constituent stocks, including Industrial Securities (601377) and Huatai Securities (601688), showing significant gains of 2.60% and 2.57% respectively [1] - The Securities ETF Leader (159993) has also seen an increase of 0.87%, with the latest price reported at 1.27 yuan, indicating strong market interest [1] - Over the past week, the Securities ETF Leader has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 52.51 million yuan, totaling 107 million yuan in net inflows, averaging 15.22 million yuan daily [1] Group 2 - In terms of fiscal performance, the national stamp duty revenue reached 378.1 billion yuan in the first ten months of this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.5%, with securities transaction stamp duty contributing 162.9 billion yuan, marking an impressive 88.1% increase [1] - The announcement of the merger between CICC and Dongxing Securities, as well as Xinda Securities, is expected to significantly enhance comprehensive strength and improve asset efficiency through synergies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] - The ongoing supply-side reforms are viewed as a crucial long-term change in the industry, with expectations for valuation recovery in the sector driven by market activity and potential inflows from retail investors [1]

利率 | 股跌了，债为什么不涨？ 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2025.11.23 核心观点 相关报告 1. 《流动性 | 月 末 资 金 的 规 律 ？ 》 2025-11-22 2. 《高频｜杭州新房销售回暖，开工率大多 下行 》 2025-11-22 3. 《固收 + ，加什么？ — — 资产篇》 2025-11-19 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 ❖ 今年三季度股债跷跷板效应十分显著，但近期股市下跌时债市依旧较弱，为 什么？从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确是主要原 因；从机构行为角度，一方面是保险赎回固收+产品，另一方面是券商和农商 砸盘。展望未来，货币政策的基调是动态的，我们认为明年初降准降息的可 能性较高，而且从历史出发，无论是 12 月还是中央经济工作会议的日历效应 都很清晰，未来 1-3 周利率行情可能正式开启，建议把握做多机会。 ❖ 股市下跌主因：一是外围因素，隔夜美股大跌，再度引发全球市场对 AI 泡沫 的担忧 ...

Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a general decline, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices falling by 1.9%, 1.9%, and 2.7% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, major overseas markets saw a decrease in yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by 8 basis points [2][3] - Commodity prices showed volatility, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.5% while Brent crude oil fell by 0.3%, and London gold prices decreased by 0.4% [2][3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% [2][3] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve's stance on a potential rate cut in December remains uncertain, with mixed opinions among officials regarding the necessity of a 25 basis point cut [4] - Some officials express caution about further rate cuts due to concerns over inflation, while others see the possibility of a cut if economic data aligns with expectations [4] - The European Central Bank is considering reassessing its interest rate path in response to potential risks to financial stability and inflation from stablecoin market dynamics [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. labor market showed signs of stabilization in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [8] - Job growth was primarily supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, while government employment may decline significantly due to federal employees leaving [8] - Housing demand in the U.S. is recovering, with existing home sales rising to an annualized total of 4.1 million in October, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone inflation showed signs of cooling, with the October CPI year-on-year growth rate at 2.1%, marking a second consecutive month of decline [12] - Germany's government announced an industrial revitalization plan, including electricity price subsidies and a fund to support small and medium enterprises, aiming to enhance global competitiveness [12] - Japan's government approved a substantial economic stimulus package totaling 21.3 trillion yen, which includes fiscal spending and tax cuts [13]

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with a consensus emerging that A-shares present structural opportunities and that the macroeconomic environment will continue to show signs of recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Major securities firms predict China's economic growth for 2026 will be in the range of 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern expected [3]. - The overall judgment from economists is that the macroeconomic environment will be "stable and improving, with structural optimization" [2][3]. - Export resilience and ongoing industrial upgrades are viewed as key supports for the macroeconomy, with expectations of strong export performance in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The core direction for policy in 2026 will focus on structural optimization and a balanced approach to supply and demand [3]. - There is an expectation of moderate expansion in fiscal policy, which will support the conclusion of the deleveraging cycle [2][3]. - The need to address weak domestic demand remains a critical issue for 2026, with price stability being essential for growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The investment focus for A-shares in 2026 is expected to shift from being driven by sentiment, funds, and valuation to being driven by performance verification [5]. - Key areas of interest include technology growth, external demand breakthroughs, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - The AI revolution is entering a critical application phase, which is anticipated to support the performance of Chinese assets [6]. Group 4: Sectoral Insights - Three main structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends particularly in AI, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6][7]. - The potential for Chinese companies to improve their position in the global value chain is highlighted, with a focus on upgrading traditional manufacturing and expanding global presence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with consensus emerging around structural opportunities in the A-share market and a continued recovery in the macro economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Innovation - The annual strategy meetings of various securities firms highlight "new" and "seizing opportunities" as high-frequency keywords, reflecting insights into new market trends and opportunities [2]. - Themes from different firms include "Embarking on a New Journey" by CITIC Securities and "Riding the New Wave" by Huatai Securities, indicating a collective focus on innovation and market dynamics [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Securities firms express a consensus on a "stable and improving, structurally optimized" macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of strong export resilience and continued industrial upgrades [3][4]. - Economic growth predictions for 2026 range from 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a moderately expansionary stance, supporting the end of the deleveraging cycle [3]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The A-share market is expected to shift from being driven by "sentiment, funds, and valuation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, external demand, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize that the "performance is king" narrative will dominate, with a potential for the A-share market to reach new highs due to increased allocations from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6]. - Key investment themes include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6].

Core Insights - Lenovo Group reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2 of FY2025/26, reaching 146.4 billion RMB, marking a historical high for the quarter [1] - Adjusted net profit increased by 25% year-on-year to 3.66 billion RMB, exceeding expectations [1] - The performance was driven by accelerated penetration of AI PCs [1] Segment Summaries IDG (Intelligent Devices Group) - AI PC penetration accelerated, with Motorola smartphone sales reaching a historical high, generating revenue of $15.11 billion, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.7% [2] - Year-on-year growth of 11.8% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.2% were reported [2] - Operating profit margin stood at 7.3%, in line with Bloomberg's expectations [2] ISG (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - Strong order backlog for AI infrastructure, with revenue of $4.09 billion, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9% [2] - Year-on-year growth of 23.7% was achieved, although there was a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.7% [2] - Operating profit margin was -0.8%, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 0.54 percentage points, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [2] - Revenue from liquid cooling solutions grew by 154% year-on-year [2] SSG (Solutions and Services Group) - Quarterly revenue reached a new high, achieving double-digit growth for 18 consecutive quarters, with revenue of $2.56 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's expectations by 3.2% [2] - Year-on-year growth of 18.1% was reported, with an operating profit margin of 22.3%, exceeding expectations by 3.1 percentage points [2] - The group benefits from favorable conditions in high-growth sectors, including hybrid cloud, AI, and digital workplace solutions, indicating a robust long-term outlook [2] Investment Outlook - Future adjusted net profit growth is projected at 16.9%, 9.9%, and 13.3% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, translating to $1.68 billion, $1.85 billion, and $2.10 billion respectively [3] - Corresponding PE ratios for FY25/26 to FY27/28 are estimated at 9.2X, 8.4X, and 7.4X [3] - The recommendation to maintain an "overweight" rating is upheld [3]

Group 1 - Lenovo Group reported a record high revenue of 146.4 billion RMB for Q2 of FY2025/26, representing a 15% year-on-year growth, with adjusted net profit increasing by 25% to 3.66 billion RMB [1] - The AI PC segment is accelerating its penetration, contributing to strong performance in the smartphone business, which achieved a historical high in sales with revenue of 15.11 billion USD, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.7% and showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [2] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported strong order reserves, with revenue of 4.09 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, although it fell short of Bloomberg's expectations by 3.9% [2] Group 2 - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved record quarterly revenue of 2.56 billion USD, marking an 18.1% year-on-year growth and exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.2% [2] - The company anticipates adjusted net profit growth of 16.9%, 9.9%, and 13.3% for FY25/26 to FY27/28, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.2X, 8.4X, and 7.4X, maintaining an "overweight" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - The number of penalties in the securities industry has increased recently, but the total for the year remains significantly lower than the previous year, with 310 penalties issued so far, representing 61.63% of last year's total [1] Summary by Sections Penalty Statistics - As of November 19, 310 penalties have been issued this year, which is 61.63% of the 503 penalties from the same period last year [1] - In the fourth quarter alone, 37 penalties have been issued, down from 78 in the same period last year [1][4] Types of Violations - The main types of violations in the fourth quarter include: - Employee violations of trading regulations - Breaches of integrity in the workplace - Failures in ongoing supervision - Violations in client solicitation - These categories account for 59.46% of all penalties issued [1][6] Specific Cases - The highest number of penalties was issued to Shanghai Securities, totaling 6, followed by Caixin Securities and Founder Securities with 3 each [5] - Notably, some penalties are linked to "penetrating" regulatory enforcement, where multiple entities within a firm are penalized for the same violation [5] Regulatory Environment - Despite a decrease in total penalties, the regulatory environment remains strict, with a focus on effective enforcement and deterrence against violations [8] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the need for a more resilient and robust market, with improved compliance monitoring and training [9]

Core Viewpoint - Daying Electronics has shown a significant increase in stock price, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor interest in the company's growth potential in the automotive parts sector [1]. Company Overview - Jiangsu Daying Electronics Co., Ltd. is a leading domestic supplier of automotive parts, established on August 12, 1998, and listed on June 27, 2017. The company specializes in automotive wiring harnesses, washing systems, automotive electronics, and precision injection molding [1]. - The company has a strong focus on research and development, expanding its product offerings to include intelligent washing systems, high-speed transmission harnesses, 360-degree panoramic systems, and various automotive sensors [1]. - The revenue composition of Daying Electronics is as follows: automotive parts 47.62%, short transportation parts 32.95%, smart home sensors 13.13%, others 4.10%, and spare parts 2.20% [1]. Shareholder Information - Financial data indicates that a fund under Caitong Securities Asset Management has entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Daying Electronics, holding 1.1861 million shares, which accounts for 1.03% of the circulating shares [2]. - The fund, Caitong Asset Management Advanced Manufacturing Mixed Initiation A (021985), has achieved a year-to-date return of 57.9% and a one-year return of 53.09%, ranking 444 out of 8136 and 512 out of 8056 respectively in its category [2]. Fund Management - The fund manager of Caitong Asset Management Advanced Manufacturing Mixed Initiation A is Xu Jingze, who has been in the position for 1 year and 38 days. The fund's total asset size is 1.379 billion yuan, with the best return during his tenure being 64.73% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to recover as the trend of reducing competition continues, with a focus on companies like YTO Express, ZTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, which show potential for growth and valuation recovery [1] Industry Volume and Price - As of October 2025, the express delivery industry's business volume growth rate is 7.9%, surpassing the growth rate of physical online retail sales at 4.9% and social consumer goods retail sales at 2.9% [1] - The average revenue per delivery in the express delivery industry is 7.48 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.00% and a month-on-month decline of 0.85%, influenced by the trend of smaller packages and localized price competition [1] Regional Volume and Price - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for express delivery business volume in different regions are +6.7% for Class I areas, +12.6% for Class II areas, and +23.2% for Class III areas, with non-grain-producing areas showing significantly higher growth than grain-producing areas [2] - The year-on-year growth rates for average revenue per delivery in these regions are -2.5% for Class I areas, -5.0% for Class II areas, and -12.3% for Class III areas, indicating a notable easing of price competition in grain-producing areas [2] Company Volume and Price - In October 2025, the year-on-year business volume growth rates for major companies are as follows: YTO Express +12.82%, Yunda Express -5.11%, Shentong Express +3.98%, and SF Express +26.26%, with YTO Express and SF Express outperforming the industry average [3] - The year-on-year revenue per delivery growth rates for these companies are: YTO Express -3.46%, Yunda Express +4.46%, Shentong Express +7.39%, and SF Express -9.97%, indicating a significant price recovery in the context of reduced competition, particularly for Yunda Express and Shentong Express [3]