燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 气温回暖&美伊局势紧张，美国气价回落，欧 洲气价微涨 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 2026 年 02 月 24 日 2026-02-02 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：气温回暖&美伊局势紧张，美国气价回落，欧洲气价微涨。 截至 2026/02/20,美国 HH/欧洲 TTF/东亚 JKM/中国 LNG 出厂/中国 LNG 到岸价周环比变动-3.4%/+1.1%/+1.4%/0%/+3.9%至 0.8/2.8/2.7/2.5/2.7 元 /方。 ◼ 供需分析 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the upcoming periods [40][41]. Core Insights - The carbon market in China is expanding, with a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 24% [4][5]. - The report highlights the shift in national policy towards carbon emission control, emphasizing the importance of carbon reduction initiatives, which are expected to create investment opportunities in the environmental sector [7]. - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline due to seasonal factors and increased supply, with the Henry Hub spot price dropping by 39.20% week-on-week to $4.37/mmBtu as of February 6 [12][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The carbon market's trading volume reached 865 million tons in 2025, with a transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan, despite a decrease in average transaction price to 62.36 yuan/ton, down 19.23% year-on-year [4][5]. - Key emission units in the carbon market include 3,378 entities, with the power sector comprising 2,087 units, indicating a strong awareness of carbon reduction among major emitters [4][5]. - Recommendations for investment include companies with diversified revenue sources such as Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and Huaneng International Power, which are expected to benefit from stable capacity income [7][8]. 2. Gas Sector - Natural gas prices have decreased significantly, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $4.37/mmBtu, reflecting a 39.20% drop week-on-week, while European prices also fell due to improved supply conditions [12][29]. - The report suggests that the recovery in macroeconomic conditions may lead to a rebound in gas companies' performance, recommending firms like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [31][32]. - LNG prices in Northeast Asia have also declined, with spot prices at $10.70/mmBtu, down 7.76% week-on-week, influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [24][29]. 3. Company and Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant developments in the energy sector, including the implementation of a capacity price mechanism for coal and gas power generation, which aims to enhance revenue stability for power plants [36][37]. - Key announcements from companies include performance forecasts indicating substantial profit growth, such as Datang Power's expected net profit increase of 51% to 73% year-on-year [38]. - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing infrastructure improvements and energy transition initiatives as part of the national economic development plan [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the carbon trading market and related sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for companies involved in power generation and environmental protection [2][9]. Core Insights - The carbon market in China is expanding, with a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. The trading volume for the year increased by approximately 24% year-on-year, although the average transaction price fell by 19.23% to 62.36 yuan per ton [2][6]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to carbon reduction, transitioning from energy control to carbon control, which is expected to create investment opportunities in the environmental sector [9]. - Natural gas prices have decreased due to a combination of supply-demand dynamics and seasonal factors, with significant price drops observed in various markets, including a 39.20% decrease in the Henry Hub spot price [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The carbon trading market is projected to continue expanding, with key emission units increasing awareness of carbon reduction. The number of units under management reached 3,378, with significant representation from the power, steel, cement, and aluminum industries [2][6]. - Recommendations for investment include companies with stable revenue sources such as Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng, which benefit from diversified income streams [9][11]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline, with the Henry Hub spot price at $4.37/mmBtu, reflecting a 39.20% week-on-week drop. The report notes that the supply-demand balance is improving, contributing to this price decrease [2][12]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower upstream resource costs and improved sales volumes [34][35]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report indicates that the power equipment and gas sectors outperformed the broader market during the review period from February 2 to February 6, 2026 [37]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the National Development and Reform Commission's notification on improving the capacity pricing mechanism for coal and gas power generation, which aims to enhance revenue recovery for power plants [39][40]. - Key company announcements include performance forecasts from major players like Datang Power and Shanghai Electric, indicating significant year-on-year profit growth [41]. 5. Valuation Tables - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the utility sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a warming trend in temperatures leading to a decline in gas prices in Europe and the US, while domestic gas prices remain stable [1][9] - It emphasizes the overall supply being relaxed, with domestic gas prices decreasing by 2.0% week-on-week [26] - The report suggests that the pricing mechanism is being rationalized, and demand is expected to increase [1] Price Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH down 31.5%, European TTF down 11%, East Asia JKM down 3.6%, China LNG ex-factory down 2%, and China LNG CIF down 11.6% [9][10] - The report notes that the average gas consumption in Europe for the first ten months of 2025 was 349.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the US natural gas market price decreased by 31.5% week-on-week due to a high base, with storage levels at 28,230 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [14] - In Europe, gas supply decreased by 5.2% week-on-week, with a notable drop in gas-fired power generation output by 10.9% week-on-week [15] - Domestic gas consumption for 2025 is projected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 433.2 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions affecting heating gas demand [26] Pricing Progress - The report states that 68% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [40] - The report anticipates continued pricing adjustments and improvements in profitability for city gas companies [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [1] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Co. [1] - The report highlights the importance of energy independence and recommends companies with gas production capabilities, such as Shouhua Gas [1]

Core Insights - Eurob and Shenzhen Gas Group have established a strategic partnership focusing on the "Eurob & Shenranji" dual-brand integrated air conditioning project, which will involve customized R&D, production, and comprehensive market promotion [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shenzhen Gas, a state-owned listed company in Shenzhen, is a leading comprehensive energy service provider in China, focusing on urban gas, integrated energy, and smart energy development [3]. - Eurob has been deeply engaged in the smart living sector and has launched an integrated air conditioning product featuring heat recovery technology, recognized as a pioneer in smart integrated air conditioning and the top seller of new-generation central air conditioning in China [3]. Group 2: Product Innovation - The global first home energy storage integrated air conditioner, ES400, will be launched in 2025, designed to efficiently store free electricity at a lower cost and smaller size, aligning with the national "dual carbon" strategy and new power system construction [5]. - The excellence in product innovation and technology application of integrated air conditioning serves as a crucial foundation for the deepening cooperation and joint development of the dual-brand project [5]. Group 3: Technical Synergy - Eurob possesses solid technical expertise in smart control, heat recovery, phase change energy storage, and whole-house energy management systems, while Shenzhen Gas has a strong foundation in gas-electric coupling technology, enhancing system efficiency and optimizing energy costs [7]. - The complementary technical routes of both companies provide robust support for constructing an efficient, stable, and low-carbon home energy system [7]. Group 4: Market and Channel Strategy - Eurob has a mature online marketing system and a complete smart home ecosystem operation capability, while Shenzhen Gas benefits from a wide-reaching offline service network and a strong local user base, offering unique advantages in terminal reach and installation operations [7]. - The collaboration between the two companies will accelerate the widespread adoption of high-quality comprehensive energy solutions [7].

Market Overview - The gas sector increased by 0.95% on February 3, with Wanqing Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] Gas Sector Performance - Wanqing Energy (002700) closed at 7.42, up 4.80% with a trading volume of 168,000 shares and a turnover of 124 million yuan [1] - Jiufeng Energy (605090) closed at 46.95, up 3.48% with a trading volume of 161,000 shares and a turnover of 746 million yuan [1] - Fuan Energy (002911) closed at 14.26, up 2.37% with a trading volume of 102,300 shares and a turnover of 14.5 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Zhongtai Co. (300435) up 2.27% and Delong Huineng (000593) up 2.19% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The gas sector experienced a net outflow of 11.71 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 31.79 million yuan [2] - The overall net outflow from retail investors was 20.09 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Fund Flow - Jiufeng Energy had a main fund net outflow of 56.56 million yuan, with retail outflow of 57.51 million yuan [3] - Zhongtai Co. saw a main fund net inflow of 17.05 million yuan, but a retail outflow of 42.90 million yuan [3] - Wanqing Energy had a main fund net inflow of 12.22 million yuan, with a retail outflow of 11.84 million yuan [3] - Shenzhen Gas (601139) had a main fund net inflow of 5.12 million yuan, while retail investors had a net inflow of 770,840 yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting stable revenue mechanisms and growth potential in consumption and pricing [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a refined capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and ensure fair compensation for various power sources [4][6]. - It notes that natural gas consumption is expected to grow, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved economic indicators, despite short-term price fluctuations [10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Improved Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new power system [4]. - The new mechanism aims to ensure that different types of power generation, including coal, gas, and new energy sources, receive fair compensation based on their peak supply capabilities [6][7]. - The report highlights that the refined pricing structure will lead to more predictable revenue for power generation companies, reducing volatility in earnings [7]. 2. Natural Gas: Continued Growth in Consumption - The report indicates that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, with December consumption reaching 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [29]. - It notes that the recent cold weather has supported high natural gas prices, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $7.18/mmBtu, while European prices remain elevated due to low inventory levels and geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The report suggests that the natural gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved pricing mechanisms, leading to a recovery in profitability for city gas companies [31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal-fired power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their stable revenue sources [8]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential to improve profit margins through reduced capital expenditures [8]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested for their growth potential as new units are approved [8]. - The report also recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies like ENN Energy and China Gas Holdings, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and increased sales [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to policy improvements and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent improvements in the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and enhance the profitability of various power sources [6][10]. - It notes a slight increase in natural gas consumption in 2025, with a projected growth of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand outlook for the gas sector [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Capacity Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new energy system [6]. - The new mechanism introduces differentiated pricing for various types of regulatory power sources, ensuring that their capacity value is adequately compensated [7]. - A unified compensation standard for peak capacity across different power sources is established, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [8][10]. 2. Gas Sector: Continued Growth in Natural Gas Consumption - Natural gas consumption in China is expected to reach 385.7 billion cubic meters by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [32]. - The report emphasizes the impact of cold weather on gas prices, with global prices remaining high, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which supports the profitability of gas companies [13][19]. - The report suggests that the gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved demand, particularly for city gas companies, with recommendations for several key players in the market [34]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the public utility, power, gas, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 24 to January 30, 2026 [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [43]. - The report includes various company announcements, highlighting performance forecasts and operational updates from key players in the energy sector [44].

Group 1 - Konka Group's former chairman Zhou Bin and former vice president Li Hongtao are under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law, following years of losses for the company [1] - The investigation is being conducted by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Huizhou Municipal Supervisory Committee [1] Group 2 - A 61-year-old female entrepreneur, Xiong Haitao, who controls three listed companies, is under investigation and has been placed under residential surveillance [2] - The investigation notice was issued by the Sichuan Provincial Supervisory Committee, raising suspicions about its relation to Dongcai Technology, which is based in Sichuan [2] Group 3 - Tang Shuo has officially been appointed as the youngest vice president of China Construction Bank, with the appointment approved by the National Financial Regulatory Administration [3][4] Group 4 - Porsche's China president, Pan Licheng, expressed the company's commitment to "win back China" during a recent dialogue, indicating a strategy to streamline dealerships and introduce five exclusive products for the Chinese market [5] Group 5 - Shenzhen Gas announced the resignation of vice president Zhou Yunfu due to job relocation, with the company reporting increased revenue but no profit growth last year [6][7] Group 6 - There are rumors regarding the resignation of Qian Zhonghua, chairman of Hengqin Life Insurance, which has not been officially confirmed by the company yet [8] Group 7 - Everbright Bank has welcomed new executives, with Yang Wenhua, chairman of Everbright Technology, now serving as a member of the bank's party committee [9] Group 8 - Zhang Jingchuan, deputy secretary of the party committee at Huizhou Rural Commercial Bank, is under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law, just over a year after being appointed [10]

Group 1 - Shenzhen Gas announced the resignation of Vice President Zhou Yunfu due to job relocation, effective immediately upon delivery of the resignation to the board [1] - The company stated that Zhou's departure will not impact daily operations, governance, or business activities, and the management team remains stable [1] - Zhou Yunfu served as Vice President from October 2023 and was an important member of the management team, with an annual salary of 790,700 yuan [3] Group 2 - Shenzhen Gas reported a revenue of 29.796 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.11%, driven by growth in gas resource and comprehensive energy segments [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.407 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.45% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced profitability in the smart services segment [3] - The company has a stable management team with experienced vice presidents overseeing core business areas, ensuring operational continuity [3]