2025 年 1 月 2 日，桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股 份"或"本公司"）在全国银行间市场发行了 2025 年第一期超短期 融资券（科创票据）（简称：25 桐昆 SCP001（科创票据）），发行 总额为 5 亿元人民币，期限 270 天，发行利率为 1.95%，到期一次还 本付息。募集资金已于 2025 年 1 月 3 日全额到账。 现本公司 2025 年第一期超短期融资券已于 2025 年 9 月 30 日到 期，本公司于 2025 年 9 月 30 日兑付完成该期超短期融资券本息，本 息兑付总额为人民币 507,212,328.77 元。 特此公告。 股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-056 桐昆集团股份有限公司 关于 2025 年第一期超短期融资券到期兑付的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 桐昆集团股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 10 月 10 日 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the growth and current status of China's synthetic fiber industry, highlighting production statistics and future trends [1] Industry Overview - In August 2025, China's synthetic fiber production reached 6.8 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of synthetic fibers in China was 52.773 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 5.7% [1] Companies Mentioned - The article lists several companies involved in the synthetic fiber industry, including Hengyi Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xin Fengming, Tongkun Co., Hengli Petrochemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, Huafeng Chemical, Aoyang Health, Taihe New Materials, and Jiangnan High Fiber [1] Research Report - The insights are based on a report by Zhiyan Consulting titled "2025-2031 China Synthetic Fiber Industry Market Status Investigation and Development Trend Judgment Report" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [4]. Core Insights - The global natural decline rates of oil and gas fields show significant differentiation, leading to a more concentrated future supply of oil and gas [4]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the average annual decline rate for conventional oil is 5.6%, while for natural gas it is 6.8%. Without new investments, oil production is expected to decline by 8% annually over the next decade, and natural gas by 9% [5][12]. - The report highlights that nearly 90% of upstream investments are currently aimed at offsetting declines rather than meeting growth, indicating a need for substantial new investments to maintain current production levels [14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.53 per barrel, down 7.99% week-on-week, while WTI futures closed at $60.88 per barrel, down 7.36% [24]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased by 7 to 549, although this is a decrease of 38 compared to the previous year [37]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend for crude oil, with expectations of downward pressure on prices, but a medium to high price range due to OPEC cuts and shale oil cost support [4]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore rose to $21.72 per barrel, an increase of $8.14 from the previous week [59]. - The report suggests that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices adjust, with a gradual recovery anticipated as economic conditions stabilize [4]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a recovery expectation for the polyester sector, with potential upward movement in profit margins as supply-demand dynamics improve [17]. - Key companies to watch include Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Wankai New Materials, which are expected to benefit from this recovery [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co., Ltd. and Wankai New Materials, as well as high-quality refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [17]. - It also highlights the resilience of upstream exploration and development companies, particularly offshore service companies, which are expected to see performance improvements [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1][5][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some products like synthetic ammonia and lithium battery electrolytes seeing price increases, while others like natural gas and sulfuric acid are declining [6][20] - The report suggests that the international oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and economic conditions [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-dividend stocks such as Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC due to their asset quality and dividend yield [5][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The chemical industry has shown varied performance over the past month, with a 0.3% increase in the basic chemical sector compared to a 2.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [1] - Key products that saw price increases include synthetic ammonia (up 8.58%) and lithium battery electrolytes (up 5.71%), while natural gas saw a significant decline of 7.90% [6][20] Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are likely to enter a growth cycle, such as glyphosate, and emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential [7][20] - Specific companies recommended include Jiangshan Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in the glyphosate sector [7][20] - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and pesticide sectors, suggesting companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Xin Yangfeng as potential investment opportunities [20] Price Trends - The report notes that while some chemical products are rebounding in price, the overall industry remains under pressure due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [6][20] - The report indicates that the PTA market is experiencing downward pressure, with prices declining due to weak demand from downstream polyester sectors [33][34] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts and investment ratings, including Xin Yangfeng, Senqilin, and Ruifeng New Materials, all rated as "Buy" [9][10][20]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the commercialization of AI applications is approaching a critical turning point, with a focus on domestic computing power and rapidly advancing application verticals [6][7][8] - The demand for AI applications is reflected in the significant increase in Tokens consumption, indicating a rapid expansion of AI application needs across various sectors such as AI programming, AI multimodal, AI advertising, AI education, and AI healthcare [7][8] - The report highlights the strong performance of the overseas computing power chain, with a 255% increase since April 9, 2025, while domestic computing power, particularly the Huawei chain, has seen a more modest increase of 71% [9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.90%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.05% to 13479.43 [3] - The performance of various industry indices shows that non-bank financials increased by 3.84%, and metals by 3.78%, while coal and oil sectors experienced declines [4] Industry Focus - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the domestic computing power and AI application sectors, particularly those related to Huawei's computing power and software chains, which are expected to yield favorable performance in the near term [9] - The AI application business model is transitioning from concept validation to revenue generation, with a clear need for established overseas business models to guide domestic market development [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown mixed financial performance with a decrease in revenue but an increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating potential resilience in profitability despite revenue challenges [2]. Financing and Trading Activity - On September 29, 2023, Tongkun's stock price increased by 0.13% with a trading volume of 467 million yuan. The financing buy-in amount was 26.94 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 52 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 25.06 million yuan. The total financing and securities balance reached 1.92 billion yuan [1]. - The current financing balance of 1.91 billion yuan represents 5.32% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10% percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing level [1]. - On the same day, the company repaid 48,600 shares in securities lending, with no shares sold, resulting in a securities lending balance of 1.24 million yuan, which is above the 90% percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level of securities lending [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongkun reported operating revenue of 44.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.10 billion yuan [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Tongkun has distributed a total of 3.20 billion yuan in dividends, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongkun was 70,600, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 0.22% to 33,944 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the seventh largest with 26.46 million shares, a decrease of 7.38 million shares from the previous period. Southern CSI 500 ETF is the eighth largest with 24.99 million shares, an increase of 3.48 million shares, while HSBC Jintrust New Power Mixed A is the ninth largest with 22.89 million shares, marking a new entry [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is expected to see a cyclical bottoming out, with leading companies discussing coordinated production cuts to improve supply-demand dynamics [27][28] - The domestic PTA capacity has rapidly expanded from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.28 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.5% [27] - The report highlights the potential for a new cyclical upturn in the PTA market, driven by the exit of older, high-cost production capacities and a stabilization in domestic and international textile demand [28][29] Market Performance - The basic chemical sector underperformed the market, with the industry index declining by 1% during the week of September 19-26, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2% [15][20] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 22.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8 percentage points [15][21] Key News and Company Announcements - Recent discussions among leading PTA companies regarding coordinated production cuts are expected to enhance industry self-discipline and avoid disorderly competition [26][27] - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber announced a planned shutdown of 31,200 tons of viscose filament capacity for maintenance starting October 1, 2025, which is anticipated to tighten supply in the viscose filament market [26][29] Price and Margin Analysis - The report notes that the price difference for PTA has narrowed to within 200 RMB/ton, indicating significant pressure on profitability for many companies [27] - The viscose filament industry is expected to see price increases driven by seasonal demand and coordinated actions among leading companies [29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xinfonming, which are well-positioned to benefit from the expected improvements in the PTA market [28][29] - For viscose filament, attention is drawn to Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber, which may experience profit elasticity due to potential price increases [29]

Core Insights - The basic chemical industry experienced a decline of 0.95% during the week of September 22-28, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index [1][3] - The oil and petrochemical industry saw a smaller decline of 0.12%, ranking 10th in the same index [1][3] - In terms of product prices, out of 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 43 experienced declines, and 32 remained stable [1][3] Industry Dynamics - The average price of 34% of tracked products increased month-on-month, while 52% decreased, and 14% remained unchanged [1][3] - The top gainers in weekly average prices included liquid ammonia, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, and aniline, while the largest decliners included sulfuric acid and vitamin E [3] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude futures closing at $65.72 per barrel (up 4.85%) and Brent crude at $70.13 per barrel (up 5.17%) [4] - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.50 million barrels per day, an increase of 30,100 barrels compared to the same week last year [4] - Natural gas futures closed at $2.84 per mmbtu, with a weekly decline of 1.73% [5] Price Trends - Vitamin prices have been declining due to weak downstream demand, with vitamin A averaging 60 yuan/kg (down 1.64% week-on-week) and vitamin E at 46 yuan/kg (down 7.07%) [6] - Nylon prices also fell, with PA6 chip prices averaging 9,325 yuan/ton (down 2.36% week-on-week) [7] Investment Recommendations - As of September 28, the price-to-earnings ratio for the basic chemical sector was 25.20, while the oil and petrochemical sector stood at 11.52 [8] - Suggested areas of focus include the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, undervalued industry leaders, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][9] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, the growth of new materials, and the recovery of demand supported by policy initiatives [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of rising international oil prices and the decline in prices of vitamins and nylon [2] - Key areas of focus for September include the effects of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, undervalued industry leaders, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Industry Dynamics - The basic chemical industry experienced a decline of 0.95% in the week of September 22-28, ranking 17th among 31 primary industries [9] - The oil and petrochemical industry saw a smaller decline of 0.12%, ranking 10th [9] - Among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 43 saw declines, and 32 remained stable [9] - The average price of 34% of products increased month-on-month, while 52% decreased [9] - The report notes significant fluctuations in the prices of various chemicals, with liquid ammonia and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid showing notable price increases [9] Price Trends - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude futures closing at $65.72 per barrel, a weekly increase of 4.85%, and Brent crude at $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% [9] - The report indicates a potential for oil prices to remain high due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ interventions, despite pressures from tariff policies and increased production [9] - The report also notes a decline in vitamin prices due to weak downstream demand, with vitamin A and E prices dropping significantly compared to last year [9][12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the oil and gas sector, particularly those with stable dividend policies and strong performance in the upstream capital expenditure [12] - It recommends monitoring developments in new materials, especially in electronic materials and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to see significant growth [12] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several technology firms in the semiconductor and electronic materials sectors [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors [6]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in prosperity due to the implementation of the "Stabilization Growth Work Plan" for 2025-2026, which aims to enhance high-end supply and optimize capacity in various sub-sectors [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of controlling new capacity for key products such as refining, ethylene, PX, and coal-to-methanol, which is anticipated to improve the supply structure [2]. - The focus on fertilizer production stability and the development of new types of fertilizers is expected to continue, with recommendations for companies in this sector [3]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of new materials and emerging technologies in the chemical industry, driven by policy support for high-end supply and digital transformation [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Growth Policies - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan to stabilize growth in the petrochemical industry, focusing on high-end supply and project management [1]. - The plan includes measures to enhance supply optimization and support the development of high-end chemical materials in electronics, new energy, and medical equipment [1]. Section 2: Capacity Control and Supply Optimization - The plan specifies strict control over new refining capacity and reasonable planning for the addition of ethylene, PX, and coal-to-methanol capacities, supporting the replacement and upgrading of old facilities [2]. - In 2024, China's refining, PX, and methanol capacities are projected to decrease by 1%, remain unchanged, and increase by 2% respectively, indicating a significant slowdown in capacity growth [2]. Section 3: Fertilizer Production Stability - The plan aims to optimize the production management of key fertilizer companies and ensure stable raw material supply through long-term contracts [3]. - The report notes that the prices of some upstream raw materials have risen significantly, which may impact fertilizer production [3]. Section 4: Development of New Materials and Technologies - The report anticipates accelerated development of high-end chemical materials and emerging technologies, including carbon capture and green ammonia applications [4]. - It encourages the development of new materials in sectors such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical devices, with a focus on innovation and domestic substitution [4]. Section 5: Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their potential to benefit from the outlined policies, including: - **Buy**: Yun Tianhua, Dongcai Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical [7]. - **Overweight**: Hengli Petrochemical, Huayi Group, Tongkun Co., Guangwei Composite, Xinfeng Group, and Wanwei High-tech [7].