Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tongkun Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.04% in its stock price, reaching 13.37 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 478 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.45%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 32.152 billion CNY [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is located in Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, and was established on September 27, 1999. The company was listed on May 18, 2011, and its main business involves the production and sales of various types of civil polyester filament and grey fabric [1] - The revenue composition of Tongkun Co., Ltd. includes: 61.10% from polyester pre-oriented yarn, 37.69% from purified terephthalic acid, 15.07% from polyester drawn yarn, 9.46% from polyester textured yarn, 2.90% from other sources, 2.89% from other business income, 0.34% from chips, and 0.27% from composite yarns [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, only one fund under Dongcai Fund has a significant position in Tongkun Co., Ltd. The Dongcai Industrial Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) increased its holdings by 4,000 shares in the second quarter, bringing the total to 90,000 shares, which accounts for 8.73% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The Dongcai Industrial Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) was established on December 30, 2022, with a latest scale of 10.2192 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 23.88%, ranking 3974 out of 8162 in its category; the one-year return is 21.86%, ranking 4241 out of 8015; and since inception, the return is 13.85% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price recently, with a year-to-date increase of 17.85% but a notable drop of 7.88% in the last five trading days and 11.15% over the past 20 days [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.097 billion yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.203 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of October 14, the stock price of Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 13.79 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 33.162 billion yuan. The trading volume was 153 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.46% [1]. - There was a net outflow of 12.0526 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 70,600, a slight decrease of 0.22%. The average circulating shares per person increased by 0.22% to 33,944 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 26.4554 million shares, a decrease of 7.3797 million shares, while Southern CSI 500 ETF increased its holdings by 3.4825 million shares to 24.9877 million shares [3].

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.85% on October 13, with Tongkun Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.5, down 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47, down 0.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Runbei Hangke: Closed at 33.30, up 3.10% with a trading volume of 38,500 lots [1] - Baomo Co., Ltd.: Closed at 6.10, up 1.67% with a trading volume of 531,800 lots [1] - Wanbangda: Closed at 6.57, up 1.23% with a trading volume of 345,700 lots [1] - Major decliners included: - Tongkun Co., Ltd.: Closed at 14.08, down 5.82% with a trading volume of 472,700 lots [2] - ST Shenhua: Closed at 3.60, down 5.01% with a trading volume of 3,756 lots [2] - Donghua Energy: Closed at 8.25, down 3.17% with a trading volume of 204,500 lots [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 168 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 66.34 million yuan [2] - However, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 234 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Petroleum: Main net inflow of 1.47 billion yuan, with a net outflow from speculative funds of 1.25 billion yuan [3] - China Petrochemical: Main net inflow of 95.17 million yuan, with a net outflow from speculative funds of 68.34 million yuan [3] - Tongkun Co., Ltd.: Main net inflow of 23.57 million yuan, with a net outflow from speculative funds of 21.57 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the decline in international oil prices, vitamin prices, and ethylene prices, suggesting a focus on the third-quarter report trends, undervalued industry leaders, and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [2][12] - It emphasizes the increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies under the current geopolitical context [2] Industry Dynamics - During the week of October 6-12, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 20 saw price increases, 32 experienced declines, and 48 remained stable. Month-over-month, 34% of products increased in average price, while 49% decreased [9][31] - The average price of ethylene decreased to 6,530 CNY/ton, down 3.26% from the previous week and down 16.22% year-to-date [12][33] - The report notes a significant drop in vitamin prices, with vitamin A averaging 59 CNY/kg (down 1.67% week-over-week) and vitamin E at 41.5 CNY/kg (down 5.68% week-over-week) [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the third-quarter earnings season, undervalued industry leaders, and the effects of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [12] - It recommends a long-term investment strategy centered on the oil price remaining at mid-high levels, the recovery of the oil service industry, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [12][19] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several technology firms in the electronic materials sector [12][19]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant pullback on October 13, with the chemical ETF (516020) declining by 3.19% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including Tongkun Co., Ltd., fell over 7%, while several others like Xin Fengming and Huafeng Chemical dropped more than 6%, negatively impacting the overall sector performance [1][2] - The chemical ETF has seen a capital inflow of over 80 million yuan in the last three trading days, indicating renewed interest from investors [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low in terms of profitability and valuation, with a profit margin of 4.14% for the chemical raw materials and products sector as of August 2025 [3] - The price-to-book ratio for the chemical ETF (516020) is at 2.4 times, which is in the 41.57 percentile of the last decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector has seen a decline for three consecutive quarters, confirming a supply turning point and indicating a potential improvement in the industry landscape [4] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors with significant profit elasticity, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament, which are expected to benefit from supply-side improvements [4] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [4] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (A class 012537/C class 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tongkun Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.08% drop in stock price, closing at 14.19 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 174 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.50%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 34.124 billion CNY [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is located in Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, and was established on September 27, 1999. The company was listed on May 18, 2011, and its main business involves the production and sales of various types of civil polyester filament and grey cloth [1] - The main revenue composition of Tongkun includes: polyester pre-oriented yarn (61.10%), purified terephthalic acid (37.69%), polyester drawn yarn (15.07%), polyester textured yarn (9.46%), other (2.90%), other business revenue (2.89%), chips (0.34%), and composite yarn (0.27%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Dongcai Fund has a significant position in Tongkun Co., Ltd. The Dongcai Industry Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) increased its holdings by 4,000 shares in the second quarter, holding a total of 90,000 shares, which accounts for 8.73% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The Dongcai Industry Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) was established on December 30, 2022, with a latest scale of 10.2192 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 26.35%, ranking 3752 out of 8234 in its category; the one-year return is 19.85%, ranking 4267 out of 8083; and since inception, the return is 16.12% [2] - The fund manager of Dongcai Industry Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund is Zhu Liang, who has been in the position for 2 years and 289 days, with a total asset scale of 21.2124 million CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 16.12%, while the worst return is -3.27% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the unprecedented scale of refinery shutdowns in Russia, leading to increased Ural crude oil exports. As of the end of September, 38% of Russia's refining capacity (approximately 338,000 tons per day) was offline, primarily due to drone attacks from Ukraine [3][4][5] - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, while day rates for jack-up rigs are increasing. Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.79% from the previous week [3][18] - The refining sector is seeing a drop in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are rising. The Singapore refining margin for major products was $20.06 per barrel, down $1.48 from the previous week [3][54] - The polyester sector shows signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand conditions improve [3][13] Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $62.73 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 2.79%. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.507 million barrels to 420 million barrels [3][20] - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 2 to 547, with a year-on-year reduction of 39 rigs [3][32] Refining Sector - The report notes a significant drop in Russian refining capacity due to drone attacks, with a 5.08% quarter-on-quarter decline in processing volume in Q3 2025 [3][9] - The report indicates that the domestic refining product spread has improved, but remains at a low level [3][51] Polyester Sector - The report indicates that PTA profitability has declined, while polyester filament profitability has increased. The average price of PTA in East China was 4,528.6 yuan per ton, down 1.69% week-on-week [3][13] - The report expresses optimism for leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, anticipating a gradual improvement in the industry [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [6][4]. Core Views - Recent price increases in titanium dioxide and significant rises in refrigerant long-term contract prices are noted, indicating a potential recovery in profitability for the titanium dioxide sector [6]. - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry is influenced by stable global GDP growth of 2.8%, with oil demand expected to rise despite some slowdown due to tariffs [6][7]. - The report suggests a strategic focus on sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, including textiles, agriculture, and export-related chemicals [6]. Industry Dynamics - Oil supply is expected to increase significantly, driven by non-OPEC production, while demand remains stable [7]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery phase, with improvements in supply-demand relationships and policy effects leading to price stabilization in various industrial products [9]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of key materials in the semiconductor and OLED sectors, as well as the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices [6][12]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the textile chain, agricultural chain, and export-related chemicals, such as: - Textile: Companies like Lu Xi Chemical and Tongkun Co. - Agriculture: Companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [6]. - Emphasis is placed on the potential for recovery in the titanium dioxide market, particularly with the easing of trade tensions and seasonal demand increases [6][4]. - The report also suggests monitoring the performance of companies in the fine chemicals sector, such as Xinhecheng and Juhua Co., as they may benefit from ongoing market trends [20].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government shutdown and its impact on economic data and market sentiment, alongside the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting in China, which will focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][2] - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, supported by positive domestic PMI data and expectations surrounding the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][2] - The report highlights a potential increase in foreign capital inflows in the fourth quarter, which could support the A-share market [4][2] - The core investment direction is likely to remain focused on technology assets in the near term [4][2] October Stock Picks - The October stock picks include: - China Southern Airlines (Transportation) - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers (Transportation) - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (Chemicals) - Yake Technology (Chemicals) - CATL (Electric New Energy) - Lingnan Holdings (Social Services) - Jinghe Integrated (Electronics) - Shenzhen South Circuit (Electronics) - GoerTek (Electronics) - Jieshun Technology (Computers) [9][10] September Performance Review - The September stock portfolio outperformed the market, with notable monthly returns exceeding 30% for CATL and Zhaoyi Innovation, and an absolute return of 4.64%, outperforming the market benchmark by 1.44 percentage points [5][6] Transportation Sector: China Southern Airlines - China Southern Airlines is a leading airline service provider with a significant market share and a robust hub network centered in Guangzhou and Beijing. The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 174.22 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.94% year-on-year growth [11][12] - The airline industry in China has seen a 172.8% growth in passenger transport over the past 15 years, with a projected domestic passenger transport volume of 730 million in 2024, a 17.86% increase [12][13] Transportation Sector: COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers - The company reported a 44.05% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 10.775 billion yuan, with a net profit of 825 million yuan, marking a 13.08% increase [14][15] - The demand for specialized vessels remains strong, particularly in the automotive shipping segment, which saw a 439.87% increase in revenue [15][16] Chemicals Sector: Tongkun Co., Ltd. - The company experienced an 8.41% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 44.158 billion yuan, with a notable decline in polyester filament prices due to fluctuating oil prices [16][17] - The gross profit margin improved to 6.76%, reflecting a 0.57 percentage point increase year-on-year [17][18] Chemicals Sector: Yake Technology - The company reported steady revenue growth driven by LNG and electronic materials, with a gross profit margin of 31.82% in the first half of 2025 [19][20] - The electronic materials segment saw a 15.37% year-on-year revenue increase, with significant contributions from semiconductor chemical materials [20][21] New Energy Sector: CATL - CATL is projected to achieve a net profit of 50.745 billion yuan in 2024, a 15.01% increase year-on-year, with a total revenue of 362.013 billion yuan [23][24] - The company maintains a leading position in the global battery market, with a 37.9% market share in 2024 [24][25] Social Services Sector: Lingnan Holdings - The company reported an 8.52% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 2.09 billion yuan, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, reflecting a 24.39% increase [26][27] - The opening of a city duty-free store is expected to enhance customer flow and boost related tourism industry growth [27][28] Electronics Sector: Jinghe Integrated - The company achieved a 28% year-on-year revenue increase in 2024, totaling 9.249 billion yuan, with a net profit of 533 million yuan, marking a 152% increase [29][30] - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and upgrading technology processes to maintain competitive advantages [30][31] Electronics Sector: Shenzhen South Circuit - The company reported a 25.63% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 10.453 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.36 billion yuan [32][33] - The PCB business saw a 29.21% year-on-year increase in revenue, driven by demand in communication and data center sectors [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. experienced a 2.33% decline in stock price on October 9, with a trading volume of 554 million yuan, indicating market volatility and investor sentiment [1] Financing Summary - On October 9, Tongkun Co., Ltd. had a financing buy-in amount of 89.26 million yuan and a net financing buy of 60.09 million yuan, with a total financing and margin balance of 1.973 billion yuan [1] - The current financing balance of 1.965 billion yuan accounts for 5.60% of the circulating market value, which is below the 10% percentile level over the past year, indicating a low financing level [1] - In terms of margin trading, 91,300 shares were repaid, and 1,300 shares were sold on October 9, with a margin balance of 7.48 million yuan, which is above the 50% percentile level over the past year, suggesting a relatively high margin trading activity [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported an operating income of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.097 billion yuan [2] - Since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 3.203 billion yuan in dividends, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 70,600, a slight decrease of 0.22%, with an average of 33,944 circulating shares per person, an increase of 0.22% [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 26.4554 million shares, a decrease of 7.3797 million shares compared to the previous period, while Southern CSI 500 ETF increased its holdings by 3.4825 million shares to 24.9877 million shares [3]