证券研究报告 宏观视角 金价近五千、银价破一百的启示 华泰研究 2026 年 1 月 25 日│美国 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 2023 年来，我们始终看好以黄金为代表的贵金属价格重估（参见《全球央行购金百年史：任重而道远》，2024/5/10）。 随着全球地缘政治重构和财政可持续性恶化均驶入"快车道"，我们持续看好这类有一定"货币属性"的商品的长期 配置价值。但随着贵金属重估进入"共识"阶段，我们也进一步探讨这一趋势对更广义资产配置的启示，①全球变局 下黄金、白银的走势提醒我们，货币"含金量"下降、"估值锚"快速向上漂移，我们对供给稀缺实物资产和核心股 权资产的定价体系或许需要有所调整。②全球大宗商品、包括 AI 和国防军工航天等领域稀缺关键商品的供需平衡变化 可能持续推动更广义的商品、资源品价格重估，鉴于 2026 后与 2025 年前相比，全球投资周期将更为"耗材"，且 AI 基建及国防军工等核心需求增量的价格敏感度较低；同时，中国地产相关耗材量下降接近尾声，全球资源品需求不再 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese asset management industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "structural optimization and quality improvement" under national strategies such as financial services for the real economy and the development of pension finance [1][35] - The "Jianan Star Awards" ceremony and private equity fund high-quality development forum were held to explore development trends and share insights among leading asset management institutions and media [1][35] - The event recognized outstanding asset management firms and introduced a new evaluation track for private equity funds [1][35] Group 1: Event Overview - The "Jianan Star Awards" ceremony was co-hosted by Jianan Jinxin and Huatai Securities, featuring over 100 asset management executives and media leaders [1][36] - The awards aimed to foster an open, collaborative, and win-win financial ecosystem [1][35] - The event highlighted the importance of collaboration among banks, securities firms, private equity, and rating agencies in the asset management ecosystem [4][38] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Jianan Jinxin, as an independent third-party institution, emphasizes fairness and transparency in its rating and award processes to promote healthy industry development [2][36] - The awards are supported by various research institutions, including Renmin University and Shanghai Financial Development Laboratory, showcasing a collaborative effort in the asset management sector [2][36] Group 3: Industry Trends - Huatai Securities is focusing on a technology-driven, customer-centric approach, aiming to enhance wealth management services through AI and a global service network [6][40] - The firm has launched the "Private Equity High Ground" initiative to support the private equity industry and improve service efficiency [7][41] - The low-interest-rate environment is prompting financial institutions to shift from scale expansion to quality improvement and diversified income structures [15][49] Group 4: Future Directions - The asset management industry is expected to face challenges and opportunities due to the evolving financial landscape, with a focus on serving key sectors like technology, green finance, and pension management [16][50] - The "Private Equity Public Evaluation" system aims to empower private equity managers and enhance their competitiveness in the market [9][43] - The discussions at the forum indicated a shift towards performance verification in the stock market and a return to fundamental logic in the bond market [13][47]

| 离任高级管理人员职务 | 副总经理 | | --- | --- | | 离任高级管理人员姓名 | 朱前 | 瑞财经 王敏 1月26日，华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司（以下简称"华泰资管"）高级管理人员变更公告，江晓阳正式出任董事长，朱前 升任总经理，刘博文兼任首席风险官。 江晓阳于2001年进入华泰证券股份有限公司，曾在华泰证券股份有限公司广州体育东路证券营业部、北京月坛南街证券营业部、金融创新 部、证券投资部等部门任职。 | 离任高级管理人员职务 | 总经理 | | --- | --- | | 离任高级管理人员姓名 | 江晓阳 | | 离任原因 | 职务调整 | | 离任日期 | 2026年1月23日 | | 转任本公司其他工作岗位的说明 | 董事长 | 2024年1月，江晓阳进入华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司，现任华泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司董事长（代）、董事、总经理。 2025年上半年，华泰资管企业ABS发行数量77单，排名行业第一，发行规模为589.46亿元，排名行业第四。 | 离任原因 | 职务调整 | | --- | --- | | 离任日期 | 2026年1月23日 | | 转任本公 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京1月27日电华泰证券最新研报指出，2026年1月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势再次 引发市场供应风险担忧，1月23日WTI/Brent期货价格收于61.07/65.88美元／桶，较12月末上涨 6.4%/8.3%。地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，2026年第二至第 三季度油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调2026 年布伦特原油均价为65美元／桶（前值62美元／桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利重于 量"诉求，油价中枢存60美元／桶底部支撑。具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的能源龙头企业或将 显现配置机遇；油价筑底后库存损失减少，炼化有望迎来盈利低迷下的景气反转。 ...

｜2026年1月27日 星期二｜ NO.1 券商资管公司公募管理规模去年增长显著，千亿元级阵营扩容至5家 近日，随着公募基金2025年四季报披露完毕，各家券商及券商资管公司（以下统称"券商资管"）的最新 公募基金管理规模也浮出水面。截至2025年末，共有5家券商资管公司公募基金管理规模在千亿元以 上。其中，东方红资产管理以2162.68亿元的管理规模居于榜首，较2024年末增长30.05%。其次是华泰 证券资管，管理规模为1808.28亿元，较2024年末增长29.15%。中银证券、财通资管的管理规模也排名 居前，分别为1339.33亿元、1197.6亿元，均较2024年末出现小幅下滑，降幅分别为1.88%、7.47%。得 益于并购整合，国泰海通资管管理规模为1110.58亿元，跻身管理规模千亿元行列，较2024年末增长 37.6%。长江资管、山证资管管理规模分别为390.98亿元、370.83亿元，较2024年末增长47.39%、 49.04%。 点评：券商资管公募规模扩容凸显财富管理转型成效，龙头机构凭借品牌效应持续吸纳资金，头部效应 强化。并购整合加速行业洗牌，中小机构需差异化竞争。长期看，资管业务实力 ...

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【地缘紧张致油价反弹，华泰上调2026年布油均价】2026年1月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势 重燃市场对供应风险的担忧。1月23日，WTI/Brent期货价格收于61.07/65.88美元/桶，较2025年12月末上 涨6.4%/8.3%。 华泰证券指出，地缘溢价使淡季油价筑底反弹。随着需求回升和全球性储备性累库， 2026年二季度至三季度油价有望见底上探。 叠加美联储降息拉动需求，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气 上行。华泰上调2026年布伦特均价至65美元/桶，前值为62美元/桶。 ...

Group 1 - Huatai Securities indicates that since mid-January, despite high outflows from broad-based ETFs, there remains incremental investment from insurance funds and an arbitrage demand from investors, suggesting continued market momentum [1] - The rotation of investment focus is expected to shift from thematic stocks to those with performance verification, particularly in industries with sustainable recovery capabilities, such as the price increase chain, high-end manufacturing, and AI chain [1] - Specific sectors to consider for allocation include electric equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment, with a moderate increase in allocation towards cyclical dividends [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reports that the Indonesian government is expected to reduce nickel ore production quotas for 2026 to 250 million to 260 million tons, a significant decrease from 2025 [2] - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output may decline to 2.6 million to 2.7 million tons, leading to a global nickel supply shortage of 200,000 tons, which could push LME nickel prices up to $22,000 per ton [2] - The tightening regulatory stance of Indonesia towards the mining industry is likely to slow the growth rate of nickel production, indicating a gradual recovery in nickel prices from the bottom [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause interest rate cuts in January, maintaining its forward guidance for December 2025, with limited new information expected [3] - Attention is drawn to Powell's statements regarding the interest rate path, the independence of the Federal Reserve, and whether he will remain as a board member [3]

Group 1 - The public fund market has seen rapid growth, with total net asset value reaching 37.49 trillion yuan as of January 26, 2025, a 14.03% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - Five brokerage asset management companies have surpassed 100 billion yuan in public fund management scale by the end of 2025, with Dongfanghong Asset Management leading at 216.27 billion yuan, a 30.05% increase from 2024 [2] - Several smaller brokerage asset management firms have shown significant growth, with Changjiang Asset Management and Shanzheng Asset Management increasing their management scales by 47.39% and 49.04%, respectively [2][3] Group 2 - Different institutions have distinct product structures, with non-monetary market funds dominating the management products of Dongfanghong Asset Management, Zhongyin Securities, and Caitong Asset Management, while Huatai Securities has over 85% of its products in monetary market funds [3] - Brokerages are actively exploring differentiated development paths in the public fund sector, with some increasing their stakes in public fund companies to enhance control and improve business synergy [4] - Companies are focusing on expanding their product lines and enhancing their capabilities in active equity products, with a particular emphasis on technology themes and the STAR Market [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7] Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown weak overall performance this week, but some companies have disclosed high profit growth forecasts for 2025. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to promote the return to fundamentals in the public offering securities investment fund industry, which is expected to drive long-term stable development [2][4] - The market trading volume has decreased, yet remains at historically high levels. The report suggests monitoring the sector's future performance [4] - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports have confirmed the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs. The certainty of ROE improvement has increased, and valuations are expected to accelerate recovery [4] - The report highlights the increasing cost-effectiveness of overall allocations and ongoing revaluation in the sector [4] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Sector Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.5% this week, with an underperformance of 0.8% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 31 sectors [5] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has decreased by 1.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.1% [5] Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 27,988.78 billion yuan, down 19.23% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.68%, down 68.47 basis points [5] - The leverage capital scale has rebounded, with a margin balance of 2.72 trillion yuan, up 0.23% [5] Insurance Sector Insights - The cumulative insurance premium income for November 2025 reached 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [23] - Life insurance income was 41,472 billion yuan, up 9.06% year-on-year, while property insurance income was 16,157 billion yuan, up 3.88% [24] Company Recommendations - The report recommends companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, due to their strong business models and market positions [4] - Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4]

Core Insights - The launch of Huatai Securities' AI Zhangle 1.0 marks a significant step towards creating a new AI investment ecosystem, attracting attention from industry leaders and investors alike [1] Group 1: Product Features - AI Zhangle aims to provide retail investors with access to professional institutional financial services, utilizing AI to build proactive reasoning capabilities through the integration of industry maps and valuation models [2] - The platform has completed dynamic valuation calculations for over 1,000 companies and constructed over 30,000 event transmission models to address complex market event inquiries [2] - Key functionalities include "Early Listening," which provides users with critical information before market opening, "Special Reminders" for personalized alerts, and "Task Assignment" for executing complex trading operations [3] Group 2: Technical Development - The development of AI Zhangle faced challenges that were addressed by using reliable professional data and integrating various dialogue types, enhancing the model's expertise [4] - A robust data flywheel was established, incorporating automated processes and a human-machine collaboration evaluation system to improve response speed and reduce mainline pressure [4] Group 3: Industry Impact - The release of AI Zhangle 1.0 injects new vitality into the smart investment sector, simplifying complex functionalities and offering a novel investment experience for users [4]