证券研究报告 宏观 图说日本宏观月报 | 2025 年 8 月 第十三期 概览：关税拖累出口，但整体看日本经济维持复苏态势：二季度日本 GDP 超预期增长，8 月制造业 PMI 超预期回升，消费增速回升，投资维持韧性， 而通胀边际降温。日央行加息预期小幅上行，美日利差收窄、日元升值；美 日达成关税协议等多重因素推动日股上涨，日经 225 创历史新高；市场对 日本财政可持续性的担忧加剧，推动日本 30 年期国债收益率升破 3.2%。 1. 实体经济走势：经济维持修复态势，通胀边际降温 日本 8 月制造业 PMI 上行，显示制造业周期延续修复。日本 8 月综合 PMI 升至 51.9，其中制造业 PMI 升至 49.9 接近荣枯线，服务业 PMI 则从 53.6 回落至 52.7，但仍维持在扩张区间。 劳工市场边际走强，消费增速回升。就业市场边际走强：6 月正式员工人数 上升，新增岗位空缺和申请人数之比回升至 2.2，名义工资增速回升至 2.2%， 失业率持平于 2.5%。居民收入推动消费增速有所回升。6 月日本零售总额 环比（季调后）回升至 0.9%，食品、服装和一般商品零售环比均明显回升， 同时消费者活动预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 214 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 million yuan, down 93.84% year-on-year. The company faces significant pressure in product sales but may see acceleration in core urban renewal projects as their importance increases [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 remained stable year-on-year, with operational business serving as a crucial stabilizing factor. The company did not generate real estate sales revenue in the first half due to the industry's ongoing stabilization, but rental income from real estate reached 146 million yuan, up 5% year-on-year, and hotel revenue was 68 million yuan, up 1% year-on-year, collectively accounting for 99.6% of total revenue [1][2]. - The decline in profit was primarily due to reduced interest income and losses from fair value changes [1]. Group 2: Project Development and Growth Strategy - The core project "Yupin Luanshan" has made progress, completing the zero-level target in May and reaching eight floors by the end of August, with plans to open a marketing showroom and model room in September, aiming for a launch within the year [2]. - The "Hualian Nanshan A District" project is still in the preliminary stages, but recent political meetings have highlighted urban renewal, which may benefit the project's advancement [2]. - The company is actively cultivating a second growth curve through investments in strategic emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, and new technologies, with ongoing projects like Shenzhen Juneng and Zhuhai Juneng [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Value and Valuation - The company completed a share repurchase plan, buying back 0.57% of its shares for approximately 30 million yuan, enhancing shareholder equity. The remaining shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans to promote sustainable development [2]. - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 80 million, 90 million, and 190 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.06, 0.07, and 0.13 yuan. The estimated BPS for 2025 is 3.67 yuan [2]. - The target price has been adjusted to 4.53 yuan based on a 1.1x price-to-book ratio, reflecting an increase in comparable company valuations [2].

华泰证券发表研究报告指，中国海洋石油上半年实现营业收入2076亿元，按年降8%，实现归母净利润 695亿元，按年降13%。需求侧方面，伴随北半球进入传统旺季，夏季出行及发电对全球石油需求形成 较好支撑，中国、美国和欧洲等地区炼厂吞吐量明显提升，但考虑该集团持续超产，认为实际产量增长 或低于目标；又考虑全球新能源替代稳步推进，叠加中海油协同意愿显著趋弱，以及南美、非洲等低成 本增量集中释放，该行维持今明两年布伦特原油均价预测分别为每桶68美元、62美元。该行又考虑公司 原油产量占比较高，受油价下跌影响较大，给予公司2025年12.5倍、9倍市盈率，中海油A股目标价为 34.75元、H股目标价27.49港元，均维持"买入"评级。 ...

8月27日至28日，华泰证券2025年秋季投资峰会在上海举行，本届峰会以"谋划长远，破卷立新"为主 题，对2025年下半程全球宏观环境与市场行情进行了探讨与展望。 华泰证券表示，预计四季度国内流动性宽松环境仍较为明确，市场在经历估值与情绪修复后，关注重点 将转向企业业绩的兑现情况。整体而言，中国资产价值重估进程仍在持续，应对其长期重估趋势保持信 心。 中国资产价值重估仍在演进之中 商品市场方面，黄金大周期上行告一段落，建议投资者以观望为主，不过其依然具有一定的避险价值。 汇率方面，美股、大宗商品都处于阶段性高位，美元阶段性见底。铜价目前处于高位，如果接下来全球 经济进入下行周期，可能会转入下行。黑色系和原油目前处于相对低的位置，将以宽幅震荡为主。 针对本轮A股行情的持续性、季度行业配置策略及长期左侧布局方向，华泰证券研究所策略首席兼金融 工程联席首席何康表示，本轮行情介于2006年-2007年基本面驱动和2014年-2015年流动性驱动之间，当 前流动性相对充裕，基本面还在磨底过程中，预期ROE的拐点在今年四季度出现，对市场从信心提振、 生态优化、流动性驱动转为基本面驱动持乐观态度。 行业配置层面，何康建议在 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Autumn Investment Summit held by Huatai Securities focused on long-term planning and new opportunities in growth sectors such as digital assets, AI+, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Huatai's Chief Macro Economist Yi Han indicated that domestic fiscal policy will maintain diversity and that the U.S. may continue a trend of monetary easing, contributing to global economic resilience [1] - Yi Han warned investors about the declining credibility of the U.S. dollar and suggested a more open attitude towards asset allocation, particularly in scarce assets like equities [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' Head of Research Zhang Jiqiang noted that the price-performance ratio between stocks and bonds is narrowing, with a focus on whether corporate earnings can follow market recovery [2] - Zhang expressed confidence in the long-term revaluation of Chinese assets, despite potential volatility in the stock market [2] - From a quantitative perspective, Huatai's Chief of Financial Engineering Lin Xiaoming advised caution regarding U.S. equities, which are at a cyclical high, while suggesting opportunities in U.S. Treasuries as the economic cycle shifts [2] Group 3 - The commodity market is experiencing a pause in the long-term upward trend of gold, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, while still recognizing its hedging value [3] - Copper prices may decline if the global economy enters a downturn, while black commodities and crude oil are currently at relatively low levels, expected to experience wide fluctuations [3] Group 4 - Huatai's Chief Strategist He Kang suggested that the A-share market may see a return on equity (ROE) turning point in the fourth quarter, with a shift from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven market dynamics [4] - He recommended focusing on sectors that have shown signs of overbuying while reserving some capital to manage potential future volatility [4] Group 5 - Huatai's Analyst Li Yujie highlighted the increasing importance of the Hong Kong stock market, emphasizing that it should not be viewed merely as an extension of the A-share market but as a distinct market with core and scarce assets [5] - The advantages of the Hong Kong market lie in sectors such as internet and software, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are currently experiencing positive trends [5]

Core Insights - The report from Huatai Securities highlights that "AI+" is driving unprecedented changes, particularly in the consumer sector, with smart hardware companies actively seizing opportunities [1] - The introduction of the "Opinions on Deepening the Implementation of the 'Artificial Intelligence+' Action" is expected to accelerate the development of related industries [1] Investment Themes - **"AI+" Hardware**: The report identifies five key areas for investment: AI glasses, robotic vacuum cleaners, panoramic cameras, NAS (Network Attached Storage), and 3C accessories [1] - **"AI+" Infrastructure**: The growing demand for AI among the public is anticipated to drive investments in computing power infrastructure [1]

Group 1 - The core theme of the Huatai Securities 2025 Autumn Investment Summit is "Planning for the Long Term, Breaking the Mold and Innovating" with a focus on the global macro environment and market trends for the second half of 2025 [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates a clear liquidity easing environment in China for the fourth quarter, shifting market focus from valuation and sentiment recovery to corporate performance [1][3] - The ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets is expected to continue, with confidence in the long-term revaluation trend [3][5] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' Institutional Business Committee Chair Liang Hong notes a trend towards more diversified global asset allocation, driven by pragmatic policies stabilizing the economy and restoring market confidence [2] - The upcoming October meetings are seen as a critical policy window for observing China's economic direction for the next five years, emphasizing the need for deep structural reforms to successfully transition to a consumption-driven growth model [2] - Huatai's Chief Macro Economist Yi Han highlights that the more proactive fiscal policies in China this year have exceeded expectations, with a continued focus on growth stabilization [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities' Chief Fixed Income Analyst Zhang Jiqiang indicates that the market will focus on whether corporate earnings can follow the recovery in valuations and sentiment [3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" and policies to combat "involution" are key topics for market attention, alongside potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Zhang also mentions that the current stock-bond valuation ratio is narrowing, and the performance of different sectors will be crucial in determining market outcomes [3] Group 4 - From a quantitative model perspective, Huatai's Chief Financial Engineer Lin Xiaoming advises caution regarding U.S. equities, which are at a high point in their cycle, while suggesting opportunities in U.S. Treasuries as the U.S. economy enters a downturn [4] - The A-share market is currently in an upward cycle, with a relatively optimistic outlook compared to the U.S. market [4] - Lin notes that commodity markets, particularly gold, should be approached with caution, while black commodities and crude oil are expected to experience wide fluctuations [4] Group 5 - Huatai's Strategy Chief He Kang emphasizes the importance of being aware of potential market volatility while focusing on the main investment themes [5] - He sees opportunities for left-side positioning in the consumer sector, driven by long-term factors such as business cycle recovery and high dividends [5] - The relative performance of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares is slowing, with a focus on sector-specific opportunities rather than broad index performance [5]

Group 1 - The core theme of the Huatai Securities 2025 Autumn Investment Summit is "Planning for the Long Term, Breaking the Mold and Innovating" with a focus on the global macro environment and market trends for the second half of 2025 [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates a clear environment of liquidity easing in the fourth quarter, with market focus shifting towards corporate performance after valuation and sentiment recovery [1][2] - The ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets is supported by pragmatic policies that stabilize the economy and restore market confidence, alongside a global reassessment of China's technological innovation potential [1][2] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' Chief Macro Economist, Yi Han, indicates that the fiscal policy in China has exceeded expectations in its richness and diversity, with a continued focus on growth stabilization [2] - The U.S. tariff policy's impact on global economic growth remains manageable, with a weaker dollar providing a buffer for global growth momentum [2] - The upcoming October meetings are seen as a critical policy window for observing China's economic direction over the next five years [1][2] Group 3 - The current market environment shows a slight convergence in the cost-effectiveness of stocks and bonds, with limited impact on the bond market as corporate performance remains to be validated [3] - Huatai Securities' analysts suggest that the A-share market is currently in an upward cycle, lagging behind overseas markets, and presents a relatively optimistic outlook [3] - The commodity market is advised to be approached with caution, particularly regarding gold, which has reached a cyclical peak, while black commodities and crude oil are expected to experience wide fluctuations [3] Group 4 - The current A-share market is characterized by a blend of fundamental and liquidity-driven factors, with expectations for a turning point in return on equity (ROE) in the fourth quarter [4] - The consumption sector is highlighted as a key area for left-side layout opportunities, driven by underlying economic cycles and foreign capital inflows [4] - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a new phase of asset revaluation, focusing on industry allocation and structural opportunities [5]

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The 2025 Autumn Investment Summit by Huatai Securities focused on global macroeconomic and market outlooks for the second half of 2025, discussing opportunities in growth sectors such as digital assets, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Huatai's Chief Macro Economist Yi Han anticipates that domestic fiscal policy will maintain diversity and a proactive stance, with a focus on steady growth in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3] - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to provide a buffer for global growth, with the US likely to continue a trend of monetary easing [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The trend of stocks outperforming bonds may continue, but the focus will shift to whether corporate earnings can keep pace with market valuations [5] - The current stock-bond valuation ratio has slightly converged, and while the bond market faces limited impact, the performance of stock sectors will be crucial [5] - Huatai's strategy suggests that the A-share market is in an upward cycle, with a relatively optimistic outlook compared to the US market, which is expected to face greater risks in the coming months [5] Group 3: Sector and Asset Allocation - The A-share market may see a return on equity (ROE) turning point in Q4, presenting opportunities for left-side positioning in consumer sectors [7] - The Hong Kong stock market is gaining importance, with advantages in sectors like internet, software, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as local stocks benefiting from easing monetary and trade conditions [9] - Investors are advised to remain cautious in the commodity market, particularly with gold and copper, while black metals and crude oil are expected to experience wide fluctuations [6]

Group 1 - The 2025 Autumn Investment Summit held by Huatai Securities focused on long-term planning and new opportunities in growth sectors such as digital assets, AI+, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Huatai Securities anticipates a clear domestic liquidity environment in Q4 2023, with a shift in market focus towards corporate earnings realization after valuation and sentiment recovery [1][2] - The global asset allocation is becoming more diversified, with domestic policies supporting economic stabilization and restoring market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' Chief Macro Economist noted that proactive fiscal policies in China are expected to maintain diversity and support growth, while the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global growth remains manageable [2] - The current investment environment suggests a cautious approach towards U.S. equities, which are at a cyclical high, while opportunities in U.S. Treasuries may arise as the economic cycle shifts [3] - The A-share market in China is currently in an upward cycle, presenting a relatively optimistic outlook compared to the lagging U.S. market [3] Group 3 - In terms of industry allocation, there are signs of market overbuying, and it is advised to reserve some positions for potential future volatility [4] - The consumer sector presents left-side layout opportunities, driven by underlying factors such as bottoming operating cycles and high dividends [4] - The relative performance of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares has slowed, with a focus on specific sectors like internet, software, and innovative pharmaceuticals showing positive trends [4]