证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券发布A股策略研报称，对政策及降息降准的期待构成了上周市场反弹的基 底，市场短期或呈现"上有顶、下有底"的状态，交易上需警惕高位板块。 交易性资金热度仍较高，且对市场整体风险偏好修复形成一定支撑，但考虑其消耗属性与反身性，对反 弹支撑的持续性有赖于是否有新催化因素出现，配置型资金仓位暂未显著回暖，仍在寻找经济与企业盈 利的预期锚，关键锚点建议关注：1）本周中央经济工作对经济形式的定调与政策表态，在通胀及汇率 方面是否有新的提法、是否有新的产业方向提出；2）明年初美国新政府正式上台后关税、中美关系等 新进展；3）明年3月政府两会对增长目标和赤字率的最终定调等。 ...

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报认为，轻量化助力机器人提高性能与续航，重视铝镁合金的应用机 会。 人形机器人轻量化利于提高其运动性能、延长续航时间、获得更大的可操作性空间，对于精细灵活的任 务执行具有重要意义，其轻量化为系统化工程，一般采取材料轻量化（如采用铝合金/镁合金/工程塑料 等小密度材料）以及结构轻量化（如优化关节模组结构/改变机器人结构形状等），其中材料轻量化为 经济性强的理想方案。 当前镁锭报价低于铝锭，更凸显经济优势，或成为人形机器人轻量化的优良方案。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huatai Securities with a **Buy** rating, setting a target price of **24.52 RMB** for 2025 based on a 1.10x PB valuation [2][4] Core Views - Huatai Securities has achieved rapid growth through continuous mergers and acquisitions, with its wealth management business driving revenue growth, accounting for **41.78%** of total revenue in H1 2024, up **4.9pct** from 2019 [1] - The company maintains a leading position in wealth management, with a **6.30%** market share in commission-based trading and a **37.16 trillion RMB** stock and fund trading volume in 2023 [1] - Huatai's proprietary trading business shows promising prospects, with assets under management reaching **3719.04 billion RMB** by the end of 2023, ranking second in the industry [1] - International business has become a significant revenue driver, contributing **37.22%** of total revenue in H1 2024, up **26.5pct** from 2019 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from **36.578 billion RMB** in 2023 to **47.754 billion RMB** in 2026, with a CAGR of **13.28%** [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from **12.751 billion RMB** in 2023 to **15.178 billion RMB** in 2026, with a CAGR of **10.64%** [3] - The company's ROE is forecasted to rise from **7.28%** in 2023 to **7.19%** in 2026, while PB ratio is expected to decline from **0.90x** in 2023 to **0.75x** in 2026 [3] Wealth Management Business - Huatai's wealth management business remains a core driver, with **37.16 trillion RMB** in stock and fund trading volume in 2023 and a commission rate of **0.0197%** [1] - The company's digital platform, "Zhang Le Wealth Connect," has achieved **74.01 million** cumulative downloads and **9.06 million** average monthly active users by the end of 2023 [1] - Huatai's margin financing business has grown significantly, with a balance of **1055.54 billion RMB** in H1 2024, ranking first in the industry [1] Proprietary Trading and Derivatives - Huatai's proprietary trading assets reached **3719.04 billion RMB** by the end of 2023, with equity assets accounting for only **7%** of the total, reflecting a conservative investment strategy [1] - The company's over-the-counter derivatives business has grown rapidly, with a total notional principal of **2577.44 billion RMB** in H1 2024, up **55.14%** annually since 2019 [1] - Huatai is a leading player in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board market-making business, with **123** stocks under market-making by H1 2024 [1] International Business - Huatai's international business has expanded significantly, contributing **37.22%** of total revenue in H1 2024, up **26.5pct** from 2019 [1] - The company has established subsidiaries in Singapore and Vietnam, and sold AssetMark in September 2024, further diversifying its international presence [1] Investment Banking - Huatai's investment banking business has shown resilience, with a **8.84%** market share in equity underwriting in H1 2024, up from **3.66%** in 2019 [1] - The company's bond underwriting business has grown rapidly, with a **8.83%** market share in H1 2024, ranking third in the industry [1] Asset Management - Huatai's asset management business has shifted towards active management, with ABS issuance consistently ranking in the top three in the market [1] - The company's private equity arm, Huatai Zijin Investment, manages **62.18 billion RMB** in assets under management as of H1 2024, ranking third in the industry [1]

e公司讯，华泰证券研报称，24年11月20日，工信部发布《光伏制造行业规范条件》和《光伏制造行业 规范公告管理暂行办法》，相较于今年7月的征求意见稿，提升了新建和改扩建硅料项目电耗要求，有 望抑制新建产能规划，叠加近期川滇地区项目开始减产，CPIA限价倡议取得积极进展，财政部、国家 税务总局下调部分光伏产品出口退税率，我们判断政策转向已清晰，产业链价格有望触底回升，继续看 多光伏板块。 ...

证券时报网讯，华泰证券研报指出，上周海外地缘政治扰动及国内对于交易性资金的关注构成了市场回 调的底色，杠杆、散户等交易性资金交易热度有所回落。 向后看，美元指数的走强或对近期市场风险偏好修复形成一定扰动，但A股在10月底点位或仍具备一定 支撑，彼时投资者对地产修复预期偏中性，与宏观变量指引的合理PE基本相当。 短期市场中枢震荡或仍为基准情形。 配置上短期建议维持哑铃策略，红利、成长内部寻找性价比较优板块，中期建议关注内外需盈利剪刀差 反转、产能出清现拐点两条配置线索。 校对：吕久彪 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that lithium carbonate prices are rebounding due to a sustained recovery in downstream demand, driven by factors such as the election of Donald Trump and subsidies for trade-in policies [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that the recent market sentiment has improved primarily because the demand for lithium batteries during the off-season has exceeded market expectations, leading to a short-term supply-demand mismatch [1] - The current surge in demand is likely to continue until the end of the year, which may further push lithium prices upward [1] Group 2 - However, in the long term, Huatai Securities projects that the global static supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026 will still be in surplus, suggesting that lithium prices may continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom in 2025 [1] - The turning point for the lithium industry is expected to arrive in 2026, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1]

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，全国人大常委会审议通过近年来力度最大化债举措，地方政府 的化债压力和现金流将大为改善。 环保板块自2020年来基本面和估值双杀，主要是受到地方财政支出的负面影响，应收账款居高不下，收 入/利润增速放缓甚至下滑。 当前阶段使用者付费往往难以覆盖实际成本，环保公司大部分收入直接或间接来自中央/地方财政。 华泰证券判断，化债推动下，长期困扰行业的应收账款问题有望显著改善，从而使环卫、设备、水务及 部分检测公司的现金流、订单、盈利进入正向循环。 ...

2024 年 11 月 06 日 评级 买入 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-------------| | 评级变动 交易数据 | 维持 | | 当前价格（元） | 19.50 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 11.88-19.66 | | 总市值（百万） | 166279.40 | | 流通市值（百万） | 142239.50 | | 总股本（万股） | 902730.30 | | 流通股（万股） | 901337.70 | | | | 涨跌幅比较 -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 2023-11 2024-02 2024-05 2024-08 2024-11 华泰证券 证券Ⅱ | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|-------| | % | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 华泰证券 | 11.75 | 58.28 | 23.57 | | 证券Ⅱ | 12.12 | 55.19 | 32.85 | 周策 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519020001 zhouce6 ...

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，地方隐性债务一揽子化债组合拳靴子落地。 11月8日，全国人大常委会批准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议 案》。 新一轮化债方案旨在2028年底前通过三项政策工具，将地方政府隐性债务总额从14.3万亿降至2.3万亿： 1）3年6万亿元置换额度；2）5年4万亿元专项债化债额度；上述两项共计10万亿元。 华泰证券认为，整体化债方案符合预期，化债思路更加务实，置换后地方政府的化债压力和现金流将大 为改善，五年累计可节约6000亿元左右利息支出。 华泰证券认为，化债思路的底层逻辑更多体现"托底防风险"，而非"强刺激"思路。 当前外部地缘政治风险抬升，外需或进一步承压；市场期待下一步财政政策更多聚焦房地产纾困，扩大 消费需求，助力修复地方政府、企业、居民三大资产负债表。 化债有三重目标：①解决地方"燃眉之急"；②推动解决地方各类"三角债"问题，降低金融机构呆坏账损 失。 ③扭转存量债务过度占用财政资源的困境。 化债三个基本原则并没有改变：①不改变地方政府的偿债责任。 底层逻辑仍是"谁家的孩子谁抱"。 ②坚决遏制新增隐性债务，避免处理完"旧账"，又增"新账"。 ...

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，预计上市银行2025年业绩有望企稳，但息差和信用成本或为主 要扰动变量。 稳增长政策持续，助力银行信贷稳健投放；央行多次表态呵护银行盈利空间，负债端成本改善效应逐步 显现，息差降幅有望逐步收窄；随资本市场回暖，中收有望自低基数回升。 资金风险偏好回暖下，银行选股逻辑从股息避险转向绩优+低估值弹性个股，稳健高股息仍有配置价 值。 ...