Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of last Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.02% [1] Investment Strategies - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in current market conditions, suggesting that the market adjustment has begun to show potential for recovery [2] - The firm noted that the current market valuation is close to a "reasonable" central point, and if there is an overshoot, investors could consider increasing their positions [2] - Recommended sectors include low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while continuing to hold large financial stocks to reduce volatility [2] Monetary Policy Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the recent issuance of offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong aims to stabilize the offshore RMB exchange rate and curb speculative trading [3] - The issuance is intended to tighten offshore RMB liquidity, thereby increasing the cost of short-selling and preventing a consensus on unilateral depreciation [3] - The central bank's strategy is based on three considerations: managing liquidity to avoid excessive market fluctuations, enhancing the competitiveness of the offshore RMB bond market, and preventing abnormal cross-border capital flows to maintain financial stability [3] Policy Focus - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the current "anti-involution" policies are likely to focus more on key sectors with global "rare earth-like" characteristics, particularly in industries like photovoltaics, batteries, and automobiles, where low-price competition has intensified [4] - The characteristics of these key sectors include holding dominant capacity and technology in the global market, facing challenges from disorderly expansion and low-price competition, and having potential for long-term growth driven by external demand [4] - The policies aim to ensure healthy industry development and leverage these sectors as strategic tools or bargaining chips between nations [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% last Friday [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion, an increase of 257.5 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Key sectors showing gains included the shipbuilding sector and AI applications, while battery, silicon energy, and lithium mining sectors faced declines [1] Group 2: Securities Insights - Huatai Securities emphasized the importance of focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in current market conditions [1] - CITIC Securities noted that the central bank's issuance of offshore central bank bills in Hong Kong could help stabilize the offshore RMB exchange rate [2] - Zhongtai Securities indicated that the current "anti-involution" policies may increasingly focus on key areas with global "rare earth-like" characteristics, particularly in industries facing low-price competition [3] Group 3: Policy Implications - The issuance of offshore central bank bills is aimed at tightening offshore RMB liquidity, increasing short-selling costs, and stabilizing exchange rate expectations [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to address industries that dominate global capacity and technology, face chaotic expansion, and have long-term growth potential driven by external demand [3]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华泰证券认为，近期市场波动率上升，流动性、情绪和风险偏好是主要原因。在市场波动放大的情 况下部分投资者再度担忧转弱的经济数据与股市之间"背离"问题，我们对此并不悲观。国内资产重估主 线脉络未变，资金寻找核心资产的诉求也未变，但估值向盈利的切换和内外资的重新平衡要求配置思路 需要更加去伪存真。港股本轮调整相对A股更早、跌幅也更深，当前位置已经开始具备性价比。1、短 期资金避险和高低切可能延续，建议关注今年以来表现排名靠后的消费者服务、建筑、纺织服装、家 电。2、8月以来的第三轮重估中，部分行业涨幅有限但近期跌幅反而较大，有更大被"错杀"概率，关注 电子、医药、汽车、轻工制造等。3、港股科技近期回调较多，在风险偏好回落下对正面催化敏感度下 降，流动性环境改善后仍有重估机会。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances have contributed to increased market volatility. The current market adjustment appears to have established a preliminary sense of space, with strong support expected around the market's central position in late September. Future improvements in overseas liquidity expectations, reduced domestic funding pressures, and further digestion of market sentiment may lead to a healthier market environment [1]. Group 1 - The market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, suggesting that if there is an overshoot, it may be appropriate to increase positions [1]. - The focus for investment should be on mid-term themes, emphasizing safety margins, and paying attention to low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1]. - Continuing to hold large financial stocks is recommended to mitigate volatility [1].

Core Viewpoint - The demand from oil-producing countries remains focused on "value over volume," with OPEC+ likely to sacrifice prices in the short term to gain market share, which may lead to a new round of collaboration [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The pressure for rebalancing in the oil market is expected to drive new collaborative efforts among OPEC+ members [1] - The Brent crude oil price is anticipated to be supported around the $60 per barrel mark before the release of supply increments from South America and the acceleration of global energy transition [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - High-dividend energy leaders with the capability to increase production and reduce costs, along with growth in natural gas business, may present attractive investment opportunities [1]

人民财讯11月24日电，华泰证券发布港股策略研报称，近期市场波动率上升，流动性、情绪和风险偏好 是主要原因。在市场波动放大的情况下部分投资者再度担忧转弱的经济数据与股市之间"背离"问题，华 泰证券对此并不悲观。国内资产重估主线脉络未变，资金寻找核心资产的诉求也未变，但估值向盈利的 切换和内外资的重新平衡要求配置思路需要更加去伪存真。港股本轮调整相对A股更早、跌幅也更深， 当前位置已经开始具备性价比。1.短期资金避险和高低切可能延续，建议关注今年以来表现排名靠后的 消费者服务、建筑、纺织服装、家电。2.8月以来的第三轮重估中，部分行业涨幅有限但近期跌幅反而 较大，有更大被"错杀"概率，关注电子、医药、汽车、轻工制造等。3.港股科技近期回调较多，在风险 偏好回落下对正面催化敏感度下降，流动性环境改善后仍有重估机会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities has released a report indicating that recent debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances have contributed to increased market volatility. The current market adjustment shows initial signs of having sufficient space for recovery, with strong support expected around the market center in late September. [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report highlights that the market is currently experiencing adjustments that may have reached a preliminary level of support, suggesting a potential for recovery. [1] - It is anticipated that improvements in overseas liquidity expectations and a reduction in domestic funding pressures will lead to a healthier market environment as sentiment further stabilizes. [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" central level, and if there are any significant deviations, it may be appropriate to increase positions. [1] - The report emphasizes focusing on mid-term themes and maintaining a safety margin in investments, particularly in sectors such as low-level domestic consumption, domestic computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. [1] - Continuing to hold large financial stocks is recommended to mitigate volatility in the market. [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent market adjustments are attributed to debates surrounding AI narratives, tightening liquidity, and geopolitical disturbances, which have collectively increased market volatility [2][3]. Market Adjustment Factors - The market correction is driven by multiple factors: 1) Growing skepticism among global investors regarding sustained capital expenditure in AI, exacerbated by Nvidia's unexpected earnings report leading to a decline in its stock price, heightening investor concerns and market deleveraging [2][3]. 2) Year-end profit preservation sentiment among investors and tightening dollar liquidity expectations have disturbed global risk assets, with the Fed's rate cut expectations dropping to about 30% [2]. 3) Increased geopolitical tensions have accelerated a risk-off sentiment in the market, reflected in declines across various asset classes including stocks, bonds, and gold [2]. A-shares Market Valuation - Current A-share market adjustments indicate a preliminary sense of space, with a model predicting a reasonable forward PE TTM of approximately 13.6x for the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting strong support around the market's central position in late September [3]. Liquidity Improvement Signals - Positive signals for liquidity include: 1) A potential reduction in leverage among financing funds, with the average guarantee ratio in the margin trading market falling to early August levels [4]. 2) A continued upward trend in private equity fund registrations [4]. 3) Investor sentiment, as measured by the breadth index, has declined to near yearly lows, indicating a potential recovery foundation [4]. 4) The peak of stock unlocks has passed, alleviating supply-side pressures [4]. Investment Strategy and Focus Areas - Emphasis on safety margins in investment strategies, focusing on: 1) Identifying stocks with low valuation and low crowding, particularly in sectors like seasoning and fermentation, leisure food, and communication services [5]. 2) Basic fundamentals, targeting sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, such as textiles, commercial vehicles, and rare metals [5]. 3) High-dividend assets, as market risk appetite declines, with a focus on cyclical dividends in coal, chemicals, and steel, as well as potential dividends in railroads, food processing, and construction materials [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the volatility of global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on AI narratives, leading to necessary valuation corrections when industrial development lags behind market expectations [1] - The recent adjustments in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets may present opportunities for investors to reallocate towards equities, particularly in traditional manufacturing and resource sectors [1][5] - The market is currently experiencing a "three-phase overlap," characterized by a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a critical period for verifying economic conditions, and a policy vacuum affecting performance [3] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to stabilize and potentially rally in the coming months, with a focus on AI applications, robotics, and domestic consumption as key themes [2] - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are attributed to weak domestic economic data, a strong dollar, and year-end profit-taking, with expectations for a recovery following important policy meetings in December [5][10] - The current market environment is marked by high volatility, necessitating a focus on safety margins in investment strategies, particularly in sectors like food and beverage, textiles, and cyclical industries [4][11]

证券研究报告 建议择机入场 2025 年 11 月 23 日│中国内地 量化投资周报 本周观点：建议择机入场 上周，受全球流动性压力、美联储降息预期反复以及 AI 叙事松动多重因素 影响，全球风险偏好下降——VIX 指数攀升至近三个月高位，各类风险资产 均承压，其中比特币、微盘股等对流动性和风偏更敏感的资产领跌。我们的 模型认为 A 股经过上周的调整，整体上消化了过高的估值，观点由防御转 为看平。叠加周五美联储释放了略积极的降息信号，Nowcasting 模型预测 11 月 CPI 或将继续上行至 3.7%-3.8%，但核心 CPI 预计保持平稳，或有利 于市场风偏的恢复。建议择机入场，优选低位防御板块，本周行业轮动模型 加大了对低位消费板块的押注，风格上仍看好红利。 A 股大盘择时模型：上周回调消化了高估值压力，可择机入场 我们以万得全 A 指数作为 A 股大盘代理，从估值、情绪、资金、技术四个 维度对 A 股大盘进行整体方向性判断。今年以来，模型多空择时的扣费后 收益 43.84%，同期 A 股大盘涨跌幅为 20.09%，超额收益为 23.76%；上周 模型超额收益为 10.41%。上周，受全球流动性压力 ...