Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector has experienced significant volatility, with recent trading showing both sharp declines and substantial gains in stock prices, indicating a highly speculative environment driven by market sentiment and news events [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The aerospace sector saw a notable decline with the aerospace index dropping by up to 9.37% and specific stocks like Aerospace Science and Technology falling by 10% [1]. - Conversely, on the previous day, the commercial aerospace index surged over 6%, with more than 90 related stocks hitting their daily price limits or increasing by over 10% [3]. - Several major commercial aerospace stocks have reported significant price increases over the past two months, with Aerospace Huan Yu and Aerospace Electronics seeing increases of 265.82% and 194.40%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Risk Warnings - Multiple commercial aerospace companies issued risk warnings due to the extreme volatility in their stock prices, with some indicating potential stock suspensions if prices continue to rise abnormally [3][4]. - The day marked the highest concentration of risk warnings since the recent surge began in late December, highlighting the speculative nature of the current market [4]. Group 3: Industry Developments - A significant driver of the recent market activity was the announcement from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) regarding China's application for frequency and orbital resources for over 203,000 satellites, marking the largest such application to date [5]. - This application is seen as elevating satellite networking to a national strategic level, potentially leading to a surge in orders for upstream supply chains and commercial rocket companies [5]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - Industry experts caution that the commercial aerospace sector is still in a "storytelling" phase, with challenges in satellite manufacturing costs and the need for successful reusable rocket technology [6]. - The integration of satellite applications into consumer services remains incomplete, indicating that further exploration is needed to align satellite services with public demand [6]. - Experts emphasize the importance of a rational perspective on the recent developments, noting that the satellite system's implementation will take considerable time and that the current phase is still in its early stages [7].

行 业 及 产 业 国防军工 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 13 日 商业航天催化持续，继续加大军工 行业关注度 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2026 年第 2 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 13.63%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 15.29%，同期上证综指 上涨 3.82%，沪深 300 上涨 2.79%，创业板指上涨 3.89%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创 业板指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑输军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上 周国防军工板块 13.63%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 2 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market opened higher but fell back, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.31%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.83% as of midday trading [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 215.7 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The AI application, lithium mining, gold, and CRO concept stocks were active, while the commercial aerospace sector experienced a significant decline [4] - The commercial aerospace sector saw a sharp adjustment, with many stocks dropping over 10%, including Aerospace Zhizhuang and Platinum Technology, while China Satellite Communications hit the daily limit down [4] - The AI application sector continued to perform strongly, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yidian Tianxia and Zhiding Mai [5][6] Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures broke through the 170,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching a new high since October 2023, with a price increase of approximately 12% [9] - The recent price surge is driven by expectations of downstream stocking due to adjustments in battery export tax policies, which are expected to impact corporate profitability [10] - Demand from the new energy commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors has significantly exceeded expectations, shifting market sentiment from "oversupply" to "tight balance" [10] Gold Market - The gold market experienced slight fluctuations, with spot gold down 0.02% to $4,596.12 per ounce, while silver rose by 0.81% [12] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced changes to the margin requirements for gold and silver contracts, moving to a percentage of the contract's nominal value [14]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a significant downturn on January 13, following a period of rapid growth, with many stocks in the sector dropping over 10% after multiple companies issued risk warnings [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - As of January 13, at 9:57 AM, stocks in the commercial aerospace sector saw widespread declines, with key companies like Aerospace Zhizhuang (航天智装) and Platinum Special (铂力特) falling over 10% [1]. - Major stocks such as Aerospace Electronics (航天电子) and China Satellite Communications (中国卫通) hit their daily limit down, indicating a sharp market correction [1]. - The WenDe Commercial Aerospace Theme Index recorded a drop of 8.14%, closing at 3628.42, reflecting the overall market sentiment [4]. Group 2: Risk Warnings - On January 12, multiple companies, including Aerospace Hanyu (航天环宇) and Leike Defense (雷科防务), issued risk warnings, suggesting potential stock suspensions if prices continued to rise abnormally [1][2]. - Companies like Ligong Navigation (理工导航) and North Navigation (北方导航) acknowledged the significant risks associated with their stock price surges, indicating that their commercial aerospace contributions were minimal [2]. - Experts have raised concerns about the speculative nature of the sector, emphasizing the need for companies to disclose critical information regarding their commercial aerospace business to mitigate information asymmetry risks [2][3]. Group 3: Sector Performance - Since 2026, the commercial aerospace sector has seen substantial growth, with the WenDe Commercial Aerospace Theme Index reporting a cumulative increase of 33.38% as of January 12 [2]. - Key stocks in the sector, including China Satellite Communications and Aerospace Hanyu, have experienced over 130% growth in the past month, highlighting the volatility and speculative interest in the sector [2]. - Analysts have pointed out that the current market enthusiasm is primarily driven by policy support, with many companies having small market capitalizations that make them susceptible to speculative trading [2][3].

1月13日，东方电热开盘大涨2%后，持续下跌，截至发稿跌超1%报5.47元/股，总市值80.8亿元。 值得注意的是，当前A市场商业航天概念火热，自开年以来，该板块一路攀升，截至1月12日，商业航天主题指数今年累计涨幅已高达33.38%。不过昨日 晚间，多只被市场视为商业航天概念股的上市公司发布紧急提示。 航天工程（603698）(603698.SH)公告称，公司专业从事煤气化技术及关键设备的研发、工程设计、技术服务、设备成套供应及工程总承包，公司产品及 技术主要应用于煤炭洁净高效利用领域，客户主要集中在化工企业，不涉及商业航天及航天相关业务。 1月13日早盘，商业航天概念股跳水，航天环宇跌超12%，航天宏图、航天智装（300455）跌逾10%，北斗星通（002151）、中国卫通（601698）、航天 电器（002025）跌停。 | 名称 | 现价 | 消時 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 航天智装 | 34.58 | -5.52 | -13.77% | | 航天环宇 | 78.28 | -12.48 | -13.75% | | 广联航空 | 38.81 | -5.5 ...

一、全球卫星发射热潮：繁荣下的供需失衡与轨道危机 国际电信联盟（ITU）下属的宽带促进可持续发展委员会，于2025年8月发布的《2025年全球卫星宽带状况报告》指出，自2018年起，全球卫星发射 正式步入爆发期。尤其是低轨卫星星座计划的密集推进，推动卫星发射数量呈现指数级增长态势，预计到2030年，全球活跃卫星数量或将达到5万 颗，且绝大多数位于近地轨道（LEO）。 但热潮背后，行业潜藏的供需失衡风险正逐步凸显。从实际供需匹配情况来看，近年来发射的卫星中，近70%为低轨通信卫星，然而与之配套的地 面终端部署、频段协调等设施建设进展却明显滞后，导致大量卫星陷入"在轨闲置"的尴尬局面，资源浪费问题十分突出。 文 | ICT解读者—老解 当我国向国际电信联盟（ITU）申报超20万颗卫星频轨资源的消息一经传出，A股市场中已热炒数周的商业航天板块，仿佛再度注入一剂强心针：卫 星ETF在不足三个月内实现翻倍涨幅，中国卫通、中国卫星等相关企业股价更是创下历史新高，市场热情持续攀升。 然而，在这股狂热浪潮之下，投资者更需保持清醒理性。结合国际权威报告数据与国内龙头企业实际业绩来看，这场看似盛大的20万颗卫星"饕餮 盛宴"，实 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher on January 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.59% [1] - In the Hong Kong market, all three major indices rose by over 1%, with notable gains in stocks like Alibaba Health, BYD, and Xpeng Motors [1] AI Medical Sector - AI medical stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Hongbo Pharmaceutical, Prusis, and Dian Diagnostics achieving a 20% limit-up, while Meien Health recorded three consecutive trading limits [3][4] - Nvidia announced a $1 billion investment with Eli Lilly to establish an AI drug laboratory over the next five years, focusing on accelerating medical discoveries and production [5] Cultural Media Sector - The cultural media and AIGC sectors also saw significant gains, with Tianlong Group achieving a 20% limit-up, and other companies like People's Daily and Xinhua News also hitting their trading limits [5][6] Commercial Aerospace Sector - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a sharp decline, with stocks like Aerospace Hanyu hitting a 20% limit-down, and other companies such as Aerospace Development and China Satcom also facing significant drops [7][8] - A number of companies, including Aerospace Hanyu and China Satellite, issued risk warnings regarding stock price volatility and potential trading suspensions due to abnormal trading activities [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant decline in commercial aerospace stocks, with many companies experiencing a drop of over 10% [1] - Companies such as Aerospace Huanyu and Shaoyang Hydraulic fell by more than 14%, while others like Platinum Special and Aerospace Intelligence fell over 12% [1] - Multiple commercial aerospace companies issued risk warning announcements, indicating potential short-term stock price volatility [1] Group 2 - China Satellite Communications stated that its fundamentals have not changed significantly, but there is a risk of a sharp decline in stock prices [1] - Western Materials mentioned that the recent stock price increase may be due to irrational speculation [1] - Aerospace Huanyu and Leike Defense announced that they may apply for a trading suspension if their stock prices continue to rise abnormally [1]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace stocks in the A-share market experienced significant declines, with many stocks hitting the daily limit down, following risk warnings issued by several companies in the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Major commercial aerospace stocks such as Aerospace Huanyu and Shaoyang Hydraulic fell over 14%, while others like Plittech and Aerospace ZhiZhuang dropped over 12% [1] - A total of 10 stocks, including Changjiang Communication and Shunhao Co., hit the 10% daily limit down [1] Group 2: Risk Warnings - Multiple commercial aerospace companies issued risk warning announcements, indicating potential short-term risks for their stocks [1] - China Satellite Communications stated that there has been no significant change in its fundamentals, but there is a risk of a sharp decline in its stock price [1] - Western Materials mentioned that its stock had risen significantly in the short term, suggesting possible irrational speculation [1] - Aerospace Huanyu and Leike Defense announced that they might apply for a trading suspension if their stock prices continue to rise abnormally [1]

Market Overview - On January 13, the commercial aerospace concept stocks experienced a significant decline, with the sector index dropping over 6% [1] - The commercial aerospace index closed at 23,568.27, down 1,530.82 points or 6.10% from the previous close [2] Stock Performance - Several stocks within the commercial aerospace sector hit their daily limit down, including Aerospace Development, Aerospace Science and Technology, China Satellite Communications, Beidou Star, Aerospace Changfeng, and Aerospace Power [1] - Notable declines in individual stocks include: - Aerospace Universe: -16.58% [3] - Aerospace Intelligent Equipment: -13.77% [3] - Sree New Materials: -13.38% [3] - Aerospace Hongtu: -13.05% [3] - Guolian Aviation: -12.52% [3] - Other significant declines include Aerospace Electronics, China Satellite Communications, and Aerospace Longfeng, all down by 10% [4] Risk Announcements - Following the market downturn, multiple commercial aerospace companies issued risk warning announcements, clarifying that their main business does not involve commercial aerospace activities. Companies such as Aerospace Power, Aerospace Engineering, Xinghuan Technology, and Aerospace Changfeng were among those that made these disclosures [5]