Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Among the bonds with discounted transactions, "25 Yungang Y4" had a large deviation in the valuation price. Among the bonds with rising net prices, "25 Datong C3" had a relatively high deviation in the valuation price. Among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "22 Bank of Communications Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B" had a large deviation in the valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 Agricultural Bank of China TLAC Non - capital Bond 02C(BC)" had a relatively high deviation in the valuation price. Among the bonds with a transaction yield higher than 5%, real - estate bonds ranked high [2]. - The changes in the valuation yield of credit bonds were mainly distributed in the [-5,0) interval. The transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds were mainly distributed between 2 and 3 years, with the highest proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 0.5 years. The transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds were mainly distributed between 4 and 5 years, with the highest proportion of discounted transactions for varieties within 1 year. In terms of industries, bonds in the national defense and military industry had the largest average deviation in valuation prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Charts Chart 1: Discounted Transaction Tracking - The table listed 30 bonds with large discounts, including "25 Yungang Y4", "25 Dongfang K1", etc., with information on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, and transaction scale. The industries involved included transportation, non - financial finance, and urban investment [4]. Chart 2: Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - The table showed 43 bonds with large positive deviations, such as "25 Datong C3", "25 Raofa 02", etc. It provided details on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, and transaction scale. The industries included non - financial finance, comprehensive, and public utilities [6]. Chart 3: Tracking of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bond Transactions - The table presented 40 Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, including "22 Bank of Communications Tier 2 Capital Bond 02B", "22 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Tier 2 Capital Bond 04B", etc., with information on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, bank classification, and transaction scale [7]. Chart 4: Tracking of Commercial Financial Bond Transactions - The table listed 29 commercial financial bonds, such as "25 Agricultural Bank of China TLAC Non - capital Bond 02C(BC)", "24 Agricultural Bank of China TLAC Non - capital Bond 01B(BC)", etc., providing details on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, bank classification, and transaction scale [8]. Chart 5: Bonds with a Transaction Yield Higher than 5% - The table showed 20 bonds with a high - yield transaction, including "21 Vanke 06", "23 Vanke 01", etc., with information on the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, and transaction scale. The industries involved included real estate, steel, and non - financial finance [10]. Chart 6: Distribution of Valuation Deviations in Credit Bond Transactions on the Day - The chart showed the distribution of changes in the valuation yield of credit bonds on the day, with the intervals [-10,-5), [-5,0), (0,5], and (5,10], and the number of bonds and transaction scale in each interval [13]. Chart 7: Distribution of Transaction Terms of Non - financial Credit Bonds on the Day - The chart presented the distribution of transaction terms of non - financial credit bonds on the day, including intervals such as within 0.5 years, 0.5 - 1 year, etc., and the corresponding transaction scale [15]. Chart 8: Distribution of Transaction Terms of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds on the Day - The chart showed the distribution of transaction terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds on the day, including intervals such as within 1 year, 1 - 1.5 years, etc., and the corresponding transaction scale [18]. Chart 9: Discounted Transaction Ratio and Transaction Scale of Non - financial Credit Bonds in Each Industry - The chart displayed the average valuation price deviation and transaction scale of non - financial credit bonds in various industries, including petroleum and petrochemicals, real estate, etc. The national defense and military industry had the largest average valuation price deviation [20].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Shanghai Free Trade Zone Free Trade Account Function Upgrade Implementation Measures (Trial)" on December 5 aims to enhance the cross-border trade and investment liberalization and facilitation levels in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone [1] Group 1: Bank Participation - Major Chinese banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications, along with foreign banks like HSBC China and Citibank China, successfully completed business operations on the same day the trial measures were implemented [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China processed its first cross-border RMB loan for an advanced manufacturing enterprise using the upgraded free trade account, facilitating cross-border fund flow [2] - Agricultural Bank of China completed two upgraded free trade account transactions for a leading semiconductor manufacturing enterprise, significantly improving fund transfer efficiency by allowing transactions based solely on payment instructions [3] Group 2: Business Operations - Bank of China assisted five enterprises in directly processing various transactions under the upgraded free trade account, covering industries such as semiconductor, petrochemical, and automotive [4] - China Construction Bank enabled multiple key enterprises to upgrade their free trade account functions, enhancing cross-border payment efficiency and supporting global operations [5] - Bank of Communications focused on selecting multinational corporate groups for the trial, ensuring compliance and assessing the overall operational capabilities of the enterprises involved [6] Group 3: Foreign Bank Initiatives - HSBC China opened an upgraded free trade account for a multinational enterprise in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, emphasizing the multiplier effect of the new policy on cross-border trade and investment [8] - Citibank China established upgraded free trade accounts for four corporate clients, highlighting its commitment to supporting China's financial market opening [8]

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of HKD 1.018 billion on December 10, with notable net buys in Xiaomi Group (HKD 619 million), Agricultural Bank (HKD 394 million), Alibaba (HKD 342 million), Meituan (HKD 320 million), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (HKD 269 million), and Pop Mart (HKD 179 million) [1] - The net sell included significant amounts in the Tracker Fund (HKD 1.559 billion), Tencent Holdings (HKD 605 million), China Construction Bank (HKD 123 million), and SMIC (HKD 118 million) [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Xiaomi for 9 days, totaling HKD 7.39843 billion, and Agricultural Bank for 3 days, totaling HKD 993.02 million [3] - In November, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.321 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0%; Xiaomi's automotive sales reached 46,249 units, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7% [4] - Morgan Stanley highlighted concerns regarding the asset quality risk related to Vanke's bond extension, noting that Vanke's bank loans account for only 0.10% of total loans in China's banking sector [4] Group 3 - Alibaba has established a new C-end business group, aiming to develop a super app as the primary entry point for users in the AI era [4] - Tencent repurchased approximately 1.06 million shares for about HKD 636 million, with repurchase prices ranging from HKD 595.5 to HKD 603 [4] - China Construction Bank announced a capital increase from RMB 250.011 billion to RMB 261.6 billion through a specific issuance of approximately 11.589 billion A-shares [5] - SMIC's monthly wafer production capacity is expected to exceed 1 million pieces by Q3 2025, with a utilization rate increase of 3.3 percentage points to 95.8%, indicating strong industry demand [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [40]. Core Insights - The growth of M2 is primarily driven by government and corporate leverage, with government leverage's contribution increasing from 23.9% in 2015 to 45.5% in 2025, while corporate leverage is expected to contribute 63.6% to M2 growth in 2025 [5][14]. - The report highlights a divergence between the social financing (社融) and M2 growth rates, indicating a liquidity accumulation in the financial system when the demand for financing from the real economy is insufficient, which can lead to a decline in bond yields [5][19]. - The expected social financing-M2 differential for 2026 is projected to be 0.56%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33 basis points [32]. Summary by Sections M2 and Liquidity Analysis - M2 includes cash, personal deposits, corporate deposits, non-bank deposits, and deposits from non-deposit financial institutions. The main contributors to M2 growth are government and corporate leverage [5][13]. - The report discusses the relationship between the social financing-M2 differential and bond market performance, noting a shift in correlation since the second half of 2022 [5][19]. Social Financing Projections - For 2026, the report forecasts a total of 16.3 trillion yuan in new loans under the social financing framework, with a growth rate of 8.11% [32][34]. - The report anticipates that the net issuance of government bonds will reach 14.8 trillion yuan in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a proactive fiscal policy [34]. M2 Growth Forecast - The M2 growth rate for 2026 is projected at 7.55%, influenced by factors such as net fiscal deposits, the strengthening of the equity market, and cross-border capital flows [32][36].

12月10日，欢迎关注《银行今十条》，今日银行重要资讯一览： 2、长沙、深圳等地创新优化住房公积金政策 近期长沙、深圳、遵义、咸阳等多地优化调整住房公积金政策，在贷款套数认定、提取范围拓展、"商 转公"业务优化等方面推出举措，助力释放刚性和改善性住房需求。深圳将购房税款纳入公积金提取范 围的做法颇具突破性，业内人士认为此类政策持续宽松住房消费市场环境，有效降低了居民住房消费的 成本与门槛。 3、严正声明！有企业侵犯"国开行""开行"字号、商标的权益 国家开发银行公众号9日发布严正声明，指出国开发展基金有限公司发现不法分子通过非法手段将"江西 中辉宏信科技发展有限公司"虚假登记为相关公司全资子公司，后者设立的多家子公司及关联公司涉嫌 虚假宣传，侵犯"国开行""开行"字号和商标权益；声明明确公司与该涉事公司无任何股权、隶属等关联 及授权关系，涉事关联企业的市场活动与公司及国开行无关，并提醒各方合作前仔细甄别主体身份以防 损失。资料显示，国开发展基金有限公司是国家开发银行2015年设立的政策性投资主体，主要支持重点 领域项目建设。 4、六大行中期分红总额预计超2000亿元 多家国有大行近期陆续披露并落地2025年中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from major state-owned banks regarding capital replenishment reflect a broader trend of capital enhancement among these institutions, with China Construction Bank (CCB) completing a significant issuance of A-shares to increase its registered capital [1][7]. Group 1: Capital Increase Details - China Construction Bank announced on December 9 that it completed the issuance of approximately 11.589 billion A-shares, raising its registered capital from RMB 2500.11 billion to RMB 2616.00 billion [1][4][7]. - The issuance was approved by the National Financial Regulatory Administration, allowing CCB to increase its registered capital by RMB 115.89 billion [4][7]. Group 2: Context of Capital Replenishment - The capital increase is part of a collective effort by major state-owned banks to enhance their capital bases, as highlighted in the government's work report which proposed issuing special government bonds worth RMB 500 billion to support these banks [7][15]. - In March, four major banks, including CCB, announced plans to issue A-shares to raise a total of RMB 4.1 trillion, with CCB aiming to raise up to RMB 1650 billion [7][15]. Group 3: Implications for Capital Adequacy - The capital increase is expected to directly improve the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of CCB and other banks, which is crucial for risk management and supporting the real economy [7][16]. - While the increase in share capital may dilute earnings per share in the short term, it is anticipated to enhance the banks' competitive edge and long-term return expectations for investors [8][16].

近日，国有大行资本补充工作陆续迎来关键进展。 12月9日，建设银行（601939）发布公告称，该行于2025年6月完成向特定对象发行约115.89亿股A股股票，该行注册资本由人民币2500.11亿元增加至人 民币2616.00亿元。 公告显示，近日该行收到国家金融监督管理总局行政批复，同意该行注册资本增加115.89亿元人民币，由2500.11亿元增加至人民币2616.00亿元。 股票代码:601939 公告编号:临 2025-069 山国 长 前 ： China Construction Bank 中国建设银行股份有限公司 关于注册资本变更获 国家金融监督管理总局核准的公告 本行董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 中国建设银行股份有限公司(以下简称本行)于2025年6月完 成向特定对象发行 11.589.403.973 股 A 股股票,本行注册资本由人民 币 250.010.977.486 元增加至人民币 261.600.381.459 元，详情请参见 登载于上海证券交易所网站(www.sse.com.cn)的相关内容 ...

Group 1 - The banking industry in 2026 will face a mixed external environment with strong macroeconomic resilience but insufficient effective demand, leading to continued moderate monetary policy and challenges in asset allocation due to a low interest rate environment [4][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a financial powerhouse, urging banks to leverage their resource endowments and deepen their strategic initiatives over the next five years [4][10][22] - The overall financial performance of listed banks is expected to improve in 2026, driven by the recovery of net interest income and non-interest income, with a projected net profit growth of 2.4% year-on-year [4][27] Group 2 - The net interest margin is expected to narrow by 6 basis points in 2026, with net interest income growth projected to rise to 4% compared to 0.3% in 2025 [4][27] - Non-interest income is anticipated to continue improving due to the recovery of wealth management opportunities and the fading impact of fee reductions from previous years [4][27] - The overall asset quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring risks in the retail sector [4][27] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes high dividend yields as a protective measure, with the banking sector's average dividend yield at 3.94%, providing a significant premium over ten-year government bonds [4][27] - Specific banks such as Chengdu Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Shanghai Bank are highlighted for their strong regional advantages and potential for continued dividend growth [4][27][34] - The report suggests that the active capital market will provide a potential boost to quality retail banks, enhancing their recovery prospects [4][27]

责任编辑：曹睿潼 来源：今日建行 来源：今日建行 近日，中国建设银行2025年第三期二级债成功定价发行，规模400亿元，票面利率2.24%。本次发行 后，建设银行资本充足率预计将提升约0.2个百分点，有助于进一步夯实资本实力，提升服务实体经济 质效。 前期，建设银行积极稳妥推进发行筹备工作，发挥集团多牌照优势，广泛覆盖市场化投资机构，全面夯 实发行基础，以较强的市场化定价水平高效落地本次发行。 下一步，建设银行将继续扎实做好资本精细化、集约化管理，稳妥有序开展外部资本补充，增强资本韧 性，为更好服务国家重大战略、支持经济高质量发展、防范化解金融风险提供有力保障。 责任编辑：曹睿潼 近日，中国建设银行2025年第三期二级债成功定价发行，规模400亿元，票面利率2.24%。本次发行 后，建设银行资本充足率预计将提升约0.2个百分点，有助于进一步夯实资本实力，提升服务实体经济 质效。 前期，建设银行积极稳妥推进发行筹备工作，发挥集团多牌照优势，广泛覆盖市场化投资机构，全面夯 实发行基础，以较强的市场化定价水平高效落地本次发行。 下一步，建设银行将继续扎实做好资本精细化、集约化管理，稳妥有序开展外部资本补充，增强资本 ...

岁末年初的银行业"开门红"旺季营销，今年迎来显著变革。多家国有大行、股份制银行及区域中小银行 于11月便抢先启动布局，较传统12月启动节点提前整整一个月。金融界银行研究院陈国汪院长指出，这 一调整并非单纯的时间前移，而是银行业在净息差持续收窄、市场竞争加剧背景下，向财富管理转型的 战略选择，其核心目标是通过拓展中间业务，破解盈利增长难题。 其一，积极布局资产管理相关牌照。目前国内已有32家理财公司，形成较为成熟的资管生态。对于未获 得相关牌照的银行业金融机构，可按照监管"一省一家"的原则参与理财公司发起设立，通过持股方式依 托理财公司发行理财产品，既能有效留住客户资金，又能稳定获取中间业务收入。而对于规模较大、综 合实力较强的银行，可考虑组团发起设立注册规模达100亿元的金融资产投资公司，进一步拓展投行业 务与投贷联动业务，以投行收益弥补息差收窄带来的盈利压力。 其二，深化与第三方机构的业务协同。当前银行自身产品体系难以完全满足客户多元化财富管理需求， 需通过与基金、保险、信托等第三方专业机构建立深度合作，丰富代销产品矩阵。从行业实践来看，头 部银行已通过此类合作实现非息收入稳步增长，而中小银行可借助合作快速 ...