看好证券保险岁末年初行情！20251207 摘要 监管鼓励券商整合，支持并购重组，旨在提升行业集中度和竞争力，头 部券商如国泰海通的并购案例显示出规模效应，预示行业整合加速。 监管提倡价值竞争，转变过去的价格竞争模式，通过提供高质量服务获 客，稳定费率，促进券商行业健康发展，公募基金费率改革已落地，券 商轻资产业务费率预期触底。 险资偿付能力新规调整风险因子，降低了沪深 300、科创板股票及出口 信用保险业务的风险权重，支持长期资金入市，缓解了中小保险公司的 资本补充压力。 截至 2025 年 9 月末，险资二级市场权益配置规模达 5.59 万亿元，较 2024 年末增加 1.49 万亿元，配置比例接近 15%，提升 2.6 个百分点， 险资入市进程超预期。 调降股票投资风险因子预计为 A 股上市险企带来 789 亿元的股票增配空 间，并优化最低资本 200 亿元，核心和综合偿付能力充足率平均提升 1.5 和 2.1 个百分点。 末已大幅消除。此外，中金办理发行股份收购信达中心等并购事件也推动了整 个板块的表现。 吴清主席强调监管逐步回暖，并充分肯定过去四年多来证券公 司的整体发展，包括总资产、净资产及服务实 ...

人民财讯12月8日电，中金公司（601995）研报指出，展望2026年，判断机械行业中科技创新板块仍具 备显著投资机会；其次，出口端虽面临不确定性，但随着国际化进程推进，叠加美联储降息落地等，中 金公司认为外需存结构性机遇；内需层面，下游短期难见大范围产能扩张，但随着产能出清和通用企业 向成长行业转型，股价有望反弹。 ...

证监会主席吴清近日明确提出对优质券商"适度松绑"，进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间和杠杆 限制。这一表态被市场视为券商行业政策环境转向积极的重要信号。 12月6日，中国证监会主席吴清在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上表示，各证券公司要立足自身资源 禀赋，发挥好比较优势，从价格竞争加快转向价值竞争。头部机构要保持时不我待、不进则退的紧迫 感，在市场竞争力、客户和投资者服务、风险管理等方面树标杆做表率，要进一步增强资源整合的意识 和能力，用好并购重组机制和工具，实现优势互补、高效配置，力争在"十五五"时期形成若干家具有较 大国际影响力的头部机构。 "需要强调的是，一流投行不是说就是头部机构的专属，中小机构也要把握优势、错位发展，在细分领 域、特色客户群、重点区域等方面集中资源，深耕细作，努力打造'小而美'的精品投行、特色投行和特 色服务商。"吴清说。 吴清表示，证监会将着力强化分类监管、扶优限劣，对优质机构适当松绑，进一步优化风控指标，适度 打开资本空间和杠杆限制，提升资本利用效率；对中小券商、外资券商在分类评价、业务准入等方面， 探索实施差异化监管，促进特色化发展；对少数问题券商要依法从严监管，违法的要依法从 ...

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the expectation of a robust economic start in 2026 driven by proactive macro policies and structural reforms as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][5] - The appreciation of the RMB is anticipated to improve, nearing the "7" mark against the USD [1][19] Focused Commentary - Wu Qing highlights the importance of enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of capital market systems during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on public fund reforms and aligning investor interests [3] - The article discusses the need for a binding mechanism for public funds to ensure investor profit and loss are core to assessments, promoting the development of equity funds and index investments [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities predicts a more proactive policy direction in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, with a focus on consumption expansion, technological innovation, and real estate risk mitigation [5] - Huaxia Fund suggests that the "spring rally" may start earlier due to key meetings, improved macro liquidity, and easing of funding pressures, recommending a focus on AI, domestic demand recovery, and resource sectors [6] -招商证券 notes that December's market will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meetings and domestic conferences, with a preference for large-cap stocks and blue-chip dividends [7] Industry Research - Galaxy Securities indicates that the power industry will see opportunities for capacity upgrades during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on stable profitability in thermal power and growth in nuclear power [12] - Harvest Fund expresses optimism for the energy storage sector, highlighting its transition to a growth phase driven by policy and technological advancements [13] - CITIC Construction Investment Securities sees significant growth potential in the low-altitude economy, predicting a market size exceeding one trillion by 2030 [14] Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities anticipates a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with a forecast of 6.82 against the USD by the end of 2026, driven by strong export growth and seasonal currency settlement peaks [19] - Bosera Fund notes a cautious sentiment in the bond market, with a need for clearer signals of policy easing to boost demand [20] - Guotai Fund believes that the bond market may see a recovery opportunity following recent volatility, suggesting it could be a good time for long-term positioning [21] Asset Allocation - CICC recommends maintaining a "barbell" strategy in asset allocation, combining dividend stocks with technology investments, while adjusting weights based on market conditions [23]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference on the macroeconomic landscape [2][4] - It highlights the expected changes in dollar liquidity and the reasons behind the recent strength of the Renminbi [4][5] - The article emphasizes the anticipated shift in global liquidity favoring AH shares and the revaluation of Renminbi assets, alongside the potential for a bull-bear transition in the US stock market [7][8] Group 2 - The analysis includes projections for the agricultural product market, questioning whether a global upcycle is beginning and identifying trading opportunities in grains, oils, cotton, sugar, and live pigs [10] - It estimates that the reallocation of household assets could bring approximately 5.4 to 12.0 trillion yuan of incremental funds to the A-share market by 2030 [12] - The potential incremental funds from insurance capital entering the A-share market are projected to be around 6.0 to 9.6 trillion yuan by 2026 [13]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the REITs sector [5] Core Insights - The REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, recognizing the value of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [4][5] - The C-REITs secondary market has shown a general pullback, with only the data center sector performing positively, while other sectors like transportation and consumer infrastructure have seen significant declines [12][4] REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index decreased by 0.85% this week, closing at 1031.5 points, while the CSI REITs index fell by 0.98% to 801.2 points [10][11] - Year-to-date, the CSI REITs total return index has increased by 6.57%, ranking fourth among major indices [2][10] Secondary Market Performance - As of December 5, the total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 217.37 billion yuan, with an average market cap of about 2.8 billion yuan per REIT [12] - This week, 17 REITs increased in value while 58 declined, with an average weekly decline of 0.86% [12] Trading Activity - The data center sector exhibited the highest trading activity, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.6% [3] - The average daily trading volume for listed REITs was 121.9 million shares, with a turnover rate of 0.4% [3] Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs has shown significant differentiation, with the top three being China Communications Construction REIT (9.7%), Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT (9.6%), and E Fund Guangkai Industrial Park REIT (8.8%) [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, with the highest being 1.8 for Harvest Wumei Consumer REIT [3]

行业周报 | 非银金融 险资股票因子下调，看好券商板块盈利修复 金融行业周报（2025/12/7） 核心结论 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为 2.27%，跑 赢沪深 300 指数 0.99pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元金融 指数涨跌幅分别为+1.14%、+5.08%、+0.49%。 2）本周银行（申万）涨跌幅 为-1.18%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.46pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、 农商行本周涨跌幅分别为-2.67%、-0.50%、-0.86%、+0.41%。 投资观点：保险：本周五保险指数大涨 5.80%，我们认为主要系以下几个因 素形成合力：1）长期股票持仓风险因子调降，虽短期对偿付能力改善有限， 但长期资金入市态度明确，点燃市场做多情绪；2）开门红预计将超预期： 在居民"挪储"需求背景下，分红险优势凸显，成为头部险企主力产品，明 年负债端稳健增长开始被市场交易； 3）12 月美国降息概率提升，全球流动 性改善利好保险等高弹性品种。我们认为，保险将是产业结构转型中金融业 最具成长性的方向，一旦总量政策进一步发力，通胀趋势加强，那么保险的 估值修复 ...

非银金融 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 非银金融 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《监管态度转向积极，看好券商板块 行情—吴清主席在中证协大会的致辞 学习》-2025.12.7 《大国崛起需建设金融强国，券商海 外业务迎发展良机—券商海外业务深 度研究》-2025.11.30 《公募 REITs 试点纳入商业不动产， 险企开门红向好 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 ——行业周报 lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：券商杠杆上限有望松绑，险企调降风险因子释放资金 证监会主席吴清表态积极且超预期，保险投资端松绑政策符合预期。券商和保险 行业业务端景气延续，叠加政策端向好和全年相对滞涨，看好非银板块布局机会。 券商：监管表态积极，行业有望进入"政策宽松期"，杠杆上限提升助力 ROE 12 月 6 日证监会主席吴清在中证协第八次会员大会上致辞，表态积极，核心 ...

罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 甲万宏源研究微信服务 相关研究 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 券商板块信心提振, 零步兑现 非银金融行业周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/5） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 El RESERVE 2025 年 12 月 07 日 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 1.14%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.14pct。中证协第八次会员大会上吴清主 席讲话扭转市场对券商板块预期，证券业中长期 ROE 中枢上移确定性强。1）适度拓宽优质券商资本空间 与杠杆上限： 会上，吴清主席提到" 在监管政策上，我们将着力强化分类监管、 "扶优限劣" 。对优质机 ，构适当 "松绑" ， 进一步优化风控指标，适度打开资本空间和杠杆限制，提升资本利用效率 "。过去在重 资产化经营趋势 ...

12月6日，在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上，选举产生了会 、专职副会 、兼职副会 。其中，常务 理事、会长为国泰海通证券董事长朱健。其余9位兼职副会长中有8位在证券公司任职，分别为中信建投 （601066）证券刘成、申万宏源证券（000562）刘健、中信证券邹迎光、国信证券张纳沙、中金公司 （601995）陈亮、广发证券林传辉、华泰证券周易、招商证券霍达。 ...