Core Viewpoint - The company's Q1 2025 net profit exceeded previous expectations, while 2024 revenue and profit were slightly below prior forecasts. The company aims for aggressive targets in 2025, focusing on the execution pace and effectiveness of new projects [1] Investment Highlights - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.51, 0.54, and 0.65 yuan respectively. Considering the industry average PE of 34 for 2025, the company is assigned a 30X PE valuation, raising the target price to 15.3 yuan and maintaining a buy rating [2] - 2024 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 536 million yuan (down 14.87%) and net profit of 105 million yuan (down 28.80%). The decline was attributed to operational disruptions from hotel renovations and rigid cost pressures [2] - Q4 2024 revenue was 132 million yuan, down 6.9% quarter-on-quarter and down 15.2% year-on-year, with net profit of 19 million yuan, down 41.5% quarter-on-quarter and down 28.6% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 105 million yuan (down 1.6%), but net profit rose to 14 million yuan (up 26.45%) [2] Core Scenic Areas and Hotel Performance - Revenue from core scenic areas in 2024 was 282 million yuan (down 13.0%), with a gross margin of 70.4% (down 0.8 percentage points). Hotel revenue was 159 million yuan (down 23.1%), with a gross margin of 21.4% (down 8.5 percentage points) [3] - The company is enhancing growth through the renovation and new construction of scenic areas, such as the Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II project, to improve brand appeal and market competitiveness [3] 2025 Operational Plan - The company plans to achieve revenue of 580 million yuan and profit of 149 million yuan in 2025, focusing on innovative operations, quality improvement, and project development to leverage its one-stop tourism destination advantage [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with a slight recovery in Q1 2025, indicating challenges in the external environment affecting various business lines [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 536 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.87%, and a net profit of 101 million, down 27.77% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 105 million, a decrease of 1.6%, but net profit increased by 34.46% to 13 million [1][3]. - The overall gross margin in 2024 decreased by 1.92 percentage points to 52.42%, while the net margin fell by 4.17 percentage points to 22.55% [2]. Business Segment Analysis - Revenue from various business lines declined due to external environmental factors, with the water park segment experiencing the most significant drop of 41.28% [2]. - The revenue changes for 2024 by business line were as follows: scenic area business down 13.03%, water world down 41.28%, hot spring business down 10.4%, hotel business down 23.1%, and travel agency business down 4.54% [2]. Profitability and Cost Management - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved by 3.27 percentage points to 41.44%, while the expense ratio increased by 1.49 percentage points to 21.24% [3]. - The company’s strategic focus includes seeking quality acquisition opportunities and upgrading existing projects, such as the Yushui Hot Spring and Longxing Island projects [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the scenic area sector, with plans for future growth through new projects and geographical expansion [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 126 million, 144 million, and 161 million, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 26X, 23X, and 20X [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights three main investment directions: 1) Technology AI+ led by Deepseek breakthroughs and open-source initiatives, 2) Valuation recovery and gradual revival of consumer stocks, 3) The rise of undervalued dividends [2] - Overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as machinery, food and beverage, non-bank financials, real estate, environmental protection, and retail, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, banking, and public utilities are trending downward [2][20] - The report predicts strong performance in specific sub-industries over the next four weeks, emphasizing automotive services, general equipment, logistics, components, specialized equipment, paper, semiconductors, wind power equipment, consumer electronics, motors, textiles, optical electronics, photovoltaic equipment, jewelry, and infrastructure [2][20] Group 2 - In the agriculture sector, there is a strong short-term pig price due to a supply gap and inventory demand driven by state storage and increased channel inventory [3] - The report indicates a growing pressure on pig supply due to increasing inventory levels, with a notable rise in the number of small pigs stored [3] - The report recommends leading breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and New Hope, while suggesting attention to flexible stocks like Shennong Group and Dekang Animal Husbandry [3] Group 3 - The aerospace industry is experiencing growth, with the domestic C919 aircraft entering commercial operation, leading to increased orders and production capacity [4][7] - The report anticipates significant benefits for the company as a key supplier in the aerospace engine industry, particularly with the development of advanced fighter jets and drones [4][7] - Revenue projections for the company are set at 44.84 billion, 54.48 billion, and 68.54 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price of 33.96 per share [7] Group 4 - The home appliance sector is seeing a return to growth, with new business and scenarios contributing to revenue despite short-term profitability pressure [8][29] - The company reported a revenue of 19.1 billion in 2024, with a slight increase in sales from industrial pumps and significant growth in the commercial pump segment [8][29] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, projecting net profits of 2.7 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.8 billion for 2025-2027 [29] Group 5 - The report on the food and beverage sector indicates a stable performance for Laobai Ganjiu, with revenue and net profit showing slight increases [10][14] - The company is benefiting from market dynamics in Hebei and Hunan, with a positive outlook for future sales growth [10][14] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 8.87 billion and 10.27 billion, reflecting a cautious but optimistic view of the market [14] Group 6 - The cosmetics and personal care sector is experiencing a temporary performance pressure, but the color cosmetics business is showing remarkable growth [14][15] - The company reported a revenue of 57.36 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in color cosmetics sales [14][15] - The report anticipates a revenue growth trajectory for 2025-2027, with adjusted profit expectations reflecting competitive pressures in the market [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within six months [9][16]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 540 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 14.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 100 million yuan, down 28.8% year-on-year due to external market conditions [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 100 million yuan, a slight decline of 1.6% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 26.45% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [1][3]. - The company aims for a revenue of 580 million yuan in 2025, representing an 8.6% growth, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 22.8% year-on-year [4]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the scenic area business is projected to generate 280 million yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year, with specific declines in revenue from various attractions [2]. - The hotel business is expected to see a revenue drop of 23.1% to 160 million yuan, while the water world business is anticipated to decline by 41.3% to 7.46 million yuan [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 is forecasted at 52.4%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with various business segments experiencing declines in gross margins [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 41.4%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting better cost management [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 140.59 million yuan for 2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 21, and 18 for the years 2025 to 2027 [4][6]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the years 2025 to 2027 are 8.94%, 9.31%, and 9.52%, respectively [6].

[Table_Summary] 2025Q1，公司实现营业收入 1.05 亿元，同比下降 1.6%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.13 亿元，同 比增长 34.46%。远期来看，公司仍为景区板块中组织治理最优、成长逻辑最顺公司。 新项目 维度，未来三年溧阳"根据地"将以"零星增量完善功能+动物王国重磅项目落地"为主线，同 时异地扩张上有望取得突破，在地方国资扶持下成长为全国性休闲旅游龙头。预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为 1.26/1.44/1.61 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 26X/23X/20X，维持"买入" 评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨天目湖（603136.SH） [Table_Title] 2024 年年报暨 2025 年一季报点评：新老项目 稳步推进，2025 年业绩韧性复苏 报告要点 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 天目湖（603136.SH） ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 4 月 28 日 603136.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 12.39 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 7.6 1.5 7.9 (37.0) 相对上证综指 6.6 3.7 6.6 (44.9) (27%) (19%) (11%) (3%) 4% 12% Apr-24 May-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 天目湖 上证综指 | 发行股数 (百万) | 270.13 | | --- | --- | | 流通股 (百万) | 270.13 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 3,346.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 86.08 | | 主要股东持股比例（%） | | | 溧阳市城市建设发展集团有限公司 | 26.86 | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 4 月 25 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《天目湖》2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 26% in net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in performance [1][4] - The company is actively advancing its project pipeline, including the successful bid for the first phase of the Animal Kingdom project, which is expected to contribute to future growth [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 536.20 million yuan, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104.66 million yuan, down 28.80% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 132 million yuan, a decline of 15.18% year-on-year, with a net profit of 19 million yuan, down 28.64% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.235 yuan per share, totaling 63 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 60.65% [4] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from various segments was as follows: scenic spots 282 million yuan, hotels 159 million yuan, hot springs 42 million yuan, travel agencies 9 million yuan, and water world 7 million yuan, all experiencing declines due to external factors [4] Future Projections - For 2025, the company forecasts a net profit of 137.89 million yuan, representing a growth of 31.75% year-on-year, with an expected revenue of 585.94 million yuan, a growth of 9.27% year-on-year [2][4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.51 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.92 [2][4] Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading one-stop tourism service provider in the Yangtze River Delta, with a robust product development and operational capability in the full tourism industry chain [4] - The opening of the Hushu Lake high-speed railway is anticipated to boost customer traffic, while state-owned capital control is expected to enhance resource allocation [4]

Core Insights - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, with performance in line with expectations [1] - Revenue for 2024 was 536 million, a decrease of 14.87% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 105 million, down 28.8% due to extreme weather and external market conditions [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was 105 million, a decline of 1.6% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.45% to 14 million [1] Financial Performance - The company's sales and management expense ratios for 2024 were 8.41% and 14.68%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.83 and +0.99 percentage points [1] - For Q1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios were 5.67% and 17.15%, with year-on-year changes of +0.86 and +0.15 percentage points [1] Core Business Stability - The core scenic area business remained robust, with Tianmu Lake's main attractions generating revenues of 148 million and 135 million, down 17.47% and 7.58% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Gross profit margins for these attractions were 69.72% and 71.22%, indicating strong profitability [1] - The company effectively mitigated seasonal revenue fluctuations by developing secondary consumption scenarios and complementary seasonal products [1] Growth Initiatives - Scenic area renovations and new projects are driving organic growth, with ongoing projects like Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II and Night Park enhancing visitor experience and brand appeal [2] - The company is expanding its hotel business through new constructions and renovations, improving reception capacity and service quality [2] - The opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway at the end of 2024 will reduce travel time from Shanghai to Liyang to about one hour, potentially boosting visitor traffic [2] Shareholder Returns - The company implemented a profit distribution plan for 2023, distributing 5.36 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 100 million yuan [2] - The board approved a profit distribution proposal for 2024, planning to distribute 2.35 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), expected to total 63 million yuan [2] - The cash dividend policy aligns with company regulations, ensuring the protection of minority shareholders' rights [2] Investment Outlook - The company is focused on a "one-stop tourism" development model, with unique and competitive products [3] - Following the opening of the Hushu Lake High-speed Railway, there is significant marketing flexibility [3] - Upcoming projects include the planning and construction of Nanshan Xiaozhai Phase II, the planning of Pingqiao characteristic leisure tourism area, and the third phase of Yushui Hot Spring [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 134 million and 153 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 170 million [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is projected to experience revenue growth from 536.20 million in 2024 to 698.00 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.00% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 104.66 million in 2024 to 180.91 million in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8] - The EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 257.55 million in 2024 to 464.40 million in 2027, showcasing improved operational efficiency [8] Financial Summary - **Income Statement**: - Revenue is expected to grow from 536.20 million in 2024 to 698.00 million in 2027, with a projected net profit increase from 120.91 million to 201.01 million over the same period [8] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 52.42% in 2024 to 57.02% in 2027 [8] - **Balance Sheet**: - Total assets are projected to grow from 1781.65 million in 2024 to 2395.60 million in 2027, indicating a solid asset base [7] - The company’s total liabilities are expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 314.22 million in 2024 to 385.54 million in 2027 [7] - **Cash Flow Statement**: - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase significantly from 192.05 million in 2024 to 471.71 million in 2027, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [7] - The net cash increase is expected to rise from 79.29 million in 2024 to 214.29 million in 2027, indicating improved liquidity [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 536 million yuan for the year 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 15%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 105 million yuan, down 29% year-over-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 105 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2% year-over-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27% year-over-year to 14 million yuan [1] Business Structure Analysis - For the year 2024, the company's revenue from the scenic area business was 282 million yuan, down 13% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 70.43%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [2] - The water world business generated 7 million yuan in revenue, a significant decrease of 41% year-over-year, with a gross margin of -43.40%, down 50 percentage points [2] - The hot spring business achieved a revenue of 42 million yuan, down 10% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 46.98%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points [2] - The hotel business reported a revenue of 159 million yuan, down 23% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 21.40%, an increase of 8 percentage points [2] Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to achieve a revenue of 582 million yuan in 2025, an increase of 8.6% year-over-year, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, up 42% year-over-year [3] - The company aims to focus on its core business and enhance compounding effects through targeted strategies for sightseeing and vacation products, as well as regional collaboration [3] - The company is accelerating organizational transformation and leveraging technology to improve efficiency, including management information system upgrades and AI operations [3] - Strategic projects such as the upgrade of Yushui Hot Spring and the renovation of Longxing Island Butterfly Valley are being prioritized for sustainable development [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 582 million, 641 million, and 692 million yuan, respectively, with net profits of 143 million, 159 million, and 170 million yuan, indicating growth rates of 37%, 11%, and 7% [3]