Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a certain recovery trend in domestic demand during the first half of the year, with significant potential for improvement in consumer spending, especially in the context of uncertainties in exports for the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Domestic Demand and Consumer Spending - Domestic demand has shown signs of recovery in the first half of the year [1] - There remains considerable room for improvement in resident consumption [1] - The government is expected to continue implementing policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [1] Group 2: Policy and Consumption Opportunities - Incremental consumption policies are anticipated to positively impact consumer behavior [1] - There is a recommendation to focus on structural opportunities in "new consumption" [1] - Traditional consumption is expected to see a bottoming out and gradual recovery in fundamentals [1]

贵州茅台半年报 | | | | 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本报告期 | | 本报告期比 | | 主要会计数据 | (1-6月) | 上年同期 | 上年同期增 | | | | | 成(%) | | 营业收入 | 89, 389, 354, 416. 84 | 81, 930, 977, 667. 75 | 9. 10 | | 利润总额 | 62, 778, 000, 766. 82 | 57.578, 281, 653. 44 | 9. 03 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 45, 402, 962, 298. 10 | 41.695,610.983.37 | 8. 89 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经 | 45. 390. 247. 623. 82 | 41.670.097.819.99 | 8. 93 | | 常性损益的净利润 | | | | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 | 13.119.061.031.33 | 36.621,833,812.63 | -64. 18 | | | 本报告期末 | 上年度末 | 本报告期末 | | ...

部分消费主题基金"吊车尾" 在结构性行情持续演绎的市场中，今年以来，部分医药主题基金涨幅已经翻倍，而有些消费主题基金还 在负收益的泥潭中苦苦挣扎。 Wind数据显示，今年以来，截至8月11日，近8000只（不同份额分开计算）主动偏股型基金中，95%以 上的基金取得了正回报。而在300多只今年以来出现负收益的产品中，出现了多只消费主题基金的身 影。 截至8月11日，国融融信消费严选C和国融融信消费严选A今年以来的回报率分别为-15.20%和-15.10%， 在同类4521只基金中排名靠后。翻看国融融信消费严选的二季报，这只基金的前五大重仓股中有两只白 酒股，分别为第一大重仓股五粮液和第四大重仓股贵州茅台，这两只白酒股占基金资产净值的比例分别 为4.66%和4.42%。今年以来，贵州茅台、五粮液股价表现均不尽如人意。一季报显示，上述两只白酒 股也在这只基金的前十大重仓股之中，分别位列第四、第六大重仓股。此外，二季度末，在这只基金的 前十大重仓股中，还出现了美的集团、北大荒、孩子王、伊利股份等消费股。由此可见，该基金是一只 重仓传统消费股的基金。 今年以来A股市场结构性行情持续演绎，超95%的主动偏股型基金实现正收 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a structural market trend, with over 95% of actively managed equity funds achieving positive returns this year, while consumer-themed funds show a significant performance divergence [1][2] - Some consumer-themed funds have underperformed, with notable examples being Guorong Rongxin Consumer Select C and A, which reported returns of -15.20% and -15.10% respectively, largely due to heavy investments in traditional consumer stocks like liquor [2][3] - Conversely, funds like Haitong Consumer Select A have excelled, achieving a return of 60.13% this year by focusing on new consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market [3][4] Group 2 - The performance disparity among consumer funds highlights the growing popularity of new consumer sectors, while traditional consumption remains sluggish without clear signs of recovery [4][5] - Fund managers emphasize the need to adapt to new trends and categories in consumer investment, suggesting that success will depend on capturing these changes effectively [4][5] - The competitive landscape for domestic brands against international ones is intensifying, necessitating improvements in product quality, particularly in sectors like personal care, jewelry, and daily chemicals [4]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June shows a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, indicating a stable recovery in consumer confidence despite recent fluctuations [1] - The CPI data reflects a significant change from the previous year's trend of sharp declines and volatility, suggesting a rare stability and signs of recovery in the last four months [1] - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is positively reflected in consumer spending, with expectations for a stable economy in the second half, especially if trade conditions improve [2] Group 2 - A-shares experienced a sudden drop in the afternoon session, despite the index showing an upward trend earlier, indicating a lack of strong market sentiment [4] - The drop was primarily triggered by the securities sector, where a lack of upward momentum led to a collective decline in major indices [5] - The 3500-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index is seen as a critical threshold, with historical trends suggesting difficulty in maintaining levels above this point, yet current market dynamics may challenge this pattern [7]

Core Insights - The report from Bank of America compares Labubu, a trendy IP, to the traditional liquor giant Moutai, highlighting the differences in their social currency attributes and consumer engagement [1][2] - Labubu's appeal is rooted in the interests and values of the younger generation, while Moutai's social function is tied to power and hierarchy, reflecting a shift from traditional to new consumption patterns [1][2] Group 1: Social Currency and Consumer Behavior - Labubu and Moutai both possess social currency but differ in generational appeal; Moutai serves as a "social/business lubricant," while Labubu caters to emotional value in a digital social media context [2] - The transition from an investment-driven model to a consumption-driven model in China is indicated by Labubu's success, which aligns with global trends [2] Group 2: IP Lifecycle and Investment Attributes - Both Bubble Mart and Moutai face challenges related to IP lifecycle and investment attributes, with the potential for slowed global growth if there is a long gap between Labubu and the next hit IP [3][4] - The historical resilience of Moutai, with its centuries of legacy, contrasts with the relatively short histories of Bubble Mart and Labubu, which are 15 and 10 years old respectively [4] Group 3: Regulatory and Market Risks - Regulatory risks are significant for both Moutai and Bubble Mart, with the latter facing scrutiny as its consumer base diversifies; however, its growing overseas business may mitigate some risks [7] - The phenomenon of "crowded trades" in capital markets, similar to the influx of funds into Moutai from 2016 to 2021, is now observed in the new consumption sector represented by Bubble Mart [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior in China, highlighting the rise of "new consumption" and its contrast with traditional consumption, emphasizing the emotional value and social aspects of modern purchasing decisions [1][4][21]. Group 1: Current Consumption Landscape - Domestic consumption has become a primary focus for the economy, with various government initiatives like subsidies and consumption vouchers aimed at boosting spending [1][2]. - China's household consumption accounts for less than 40% of GDP, significantly lower than the 70% in the US and 60% in Japan, indicating substantial growth potential [3]. - There is a notable disparity in the consumption market, with traditional sectors declining while new consumption categories are thriving [4]. Group 2: Traditional vs. New Consumption - Traditional dining sectors are struggling, with significant losses reported by established brands, while new beverage brands like Mixue Ice City are rapidly expanding [5]. - Traditional retail channels are experiencing a decline, with hypermarkets down 11.4% for four consecutive years, while snack stores are booming [7][8]. - The high-end liquor market is facing challenges, with prices for premium brands like Moutai dropping significantly, reflecting inventory pressures [9]. Group 3: Emotional and Social Aspects of New Consumption - New consumption is characterized by a shift from basic needs to "self-pleasing" demands, focusing on emotional value rather than practical utility [21][22]. - The success of products like LABUBU from Pop Mart illustrates the importance of social media and emotional marketing in driving consumer interest [30][31]. - Over 40% of young consumers prioritize emotional value in their purchases, with a significant portion seeking to please themselves through spending [35][36]. Group 4: Evolution of Consumer Behavior - The article outlines the historical evolution of consumer behavior in China, indicating three major shifts in consumption patterns since the 1990s [47][48]. - The emergence of the third consumption era reflects a transition towards valuing symbolic meanings over practical use, aligning with global trends [52][53]. - As consumer needs evolve, there is a potential shift towards a fourth consumption era, characterized by rational consumption and a focus on value [68][72]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The new consumption trend is expected to continue growing, particularly in sectors like pet economy and new consumer electronics, despite potential market corrections [62][63]. - The interplay between traditional and new consumption is seen as a driver for domestic demand recovery, supported by policy initiatives [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior in China, highlighting the rise of "new consumption" and its contrast with traditional consumption, emphasizing the importance of emotional value in purchasing decisions [1][2][4][30]. Group 1: Current Consumption Landscape - Domestic consumption in China accounts for less than 40% of GDP, compared to 70% in the US and 60% in Japan, indicating significant growth potential [3]. - There is a notable disparity in the consumption market, with traditional sectors declining while new consumption categories are thriving [4][5]. - Traditional dining categories are struggling, with brands like 湊湊火锅 closing 73 stores and incurring losses exceeding 3.5 billion yuan, while new tea beverage brands like 蜜雪冰城 are rapidly expanding [6]. Group 2: Traditional vs. New Consumption - Traditional consumption focuses on essential daily needs, while new consumption shifts towards "self-pleasing" demands [21][22]. - The rise of "emotional consumption" is evident, with over 40% of young consumers prioritizing emotional value in their purchases [31]. - The concept of new consumption encompasses various sectors, including snack retail and new tea beverages, reflecting a broader trend towards personalized and emotional purchasing [34]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The article notes that new consumption trends are not merely a passing fad but are rooted in changing consumer environments and behaviors [54]. - Despite the current enthusiasm for new consumption, many companies are experiencing stock price corrections, indicating potential overvaluation [52][53]. - Long-term prospects for sectors like pet economy and new consumer electronics appear promising, with emerging trends suggesting continued growth [55][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural differentiation and paradigm shift in the current Chinese consumer market, highlighting the rapid growth of new consumption sectors compared to the stagnation of traditional consumption sectors like high-end liquor [2][10]. Group 1: Comparison of New and Old Consumption Markets - Traditional consumption, exemplified by Wuliangye, faces challenges due to policy restrictions, shrinking demand, and valuation corrections. The 2025 policy prohibits government agencies from providing alcohol at official receptions, impacting high-end liquor consumption [3][4]. - Economic deflation and consumption downgrade are evident, with CPI showing negative growth for two consecutive quarters in 2025, leading consumers to prefer more cost-effective products. The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped below 2000 yuan per bottle, weakening the "face-saving" function of high-end liquor [3][4]. - The valuation bubble in the liquor sector has burst, with a 200% increase in the sector from 2020 to 2024, leading to concerns about whether Wuliangye's earnings growth can match its valuation as the dynamic P/E ratio falls to 7.8 times [3][4]. - High inventory levels and weak demand in traditional consumption scenarios, such as weddings and business banquets, have resulted in a revenue growth slowdown for major liquor companies, with growth rates dropping to 5%-10% in Q1 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Explosive Logic of New Consumption - New consumption, represented by Pop Mart, thrives on emotional value and the needs of Generation Z, utilizing blind box strategies to create uncertainty and surprise, achieving a gross margin of 50.9% in 2024, significantly higher than traditional sectors [4][5]. - Pop Mart has established an IP ecosystem and global expansion strategy, planning to increase overseas stores by 80% to 230 by 2025, enhancing cultural output [5]. - The company has built supply chain and channel barriers, rapidly expanding production capacity and enhancing user engagement through a combination of direct stores and robotic shops [5]. - The influx of southbound capital exceeding 610 billion HKD and policies promoting "old-for-new" exchanges are stimulating the new consumption sector, with the toy market expected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 20% [5][6]. Group 3: Core Drivers of Market Transformation - The shift in consumer behavior is characterized by a focus on "quality-price ratio" and "emotional-price ratio," with new consumption companies experiencing a revenue growth rate of 65% in 2024, compared to just 2.4% for traditional consumption [6]. - Technological advancements and data-driven strategies are facilitating the rapid response of new consumption companies to market demands, with online retail accounting for 26.8% of total retail sales in 2024 [6]. - Policy support and capital inflow are crucial for the recovery of traditional consumption, which relies on further policy measures to stimulate growth [6]. Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - Traditional consumption companies like Wuliangye have potential for valuation recovery, but face short-term risks from policy restrictions and high inventory levels. Long-term prospects depend on economic recovery and policy easing [7][8]. - New consumption companies like Pop Mart exhibit strong growth potential due to their IP ecosystem, global expansion capabilities, and increasing emotional economic penetration, with overseas revenue expected to grow by 259.6% year-on-year in 2025 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of new consumption, driven by technology and policy, is reshaping consumer behavior and market dynamics, particularly among the Z generation [1][2]. Group 1: Drivers of New Consumption - The dual drivers of policy and technology, including the "trade-in" policy and the application of AI and big data, are accelerating the integration of online and offline channels [2]. - The demand for consumption upgrades, particularly from the Z generation, is pushing the growth of emotional value sectors such as trendy toys and pet economy [2]. - The potential of lower-tier markets is being unlocked, with high-cost performance domestic brands optimizing supply chains to penetrate these areas, leading to significant growth for certain industries and companies [2]. Group 2: Differences from Traditional Consumption - New consumption is characterized by a focus on "emotional value" and "supply creating demand," catering to the self-satisfaction and social needs of the Z generation, contrasting with traditional consumption that relies on material needs and demographic dividends [3]. - In terms of valuation methods, new consumption's high growth potential supports higher valuations, while traditional consumption is anchored by stable cash flows and dividend yields [4]. - The risk characteristics differ, with new consumption being highly volatile and sensitive to market emotions, whereas traditional consumption is more defensive but shows weak demand growth [4].