证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 商贸零售行业 1 月投资策略 优于大市 政策支持有望进一步加码，板块龙头蓄势待发 2025 年行情复盘：2025 年，SW 商贸零售指数上涨 11.6%，跑输沪深 300 指 数 6.1pct，由于 24 年底涨幅较大的调改主线标的，业绩兑现仍需时间，导 致走势相对平淡。SW 美容护理指数上涨 0.4%，跑输沪深 300 指数 17.35ct。 上半年再新消费行情支撑下一度表现较好，但进入下半年受整体大盘风格切 换聚焦科技主线下，新消费主题热度逐步退却，受此影响而回调较为明显。 25 年消费行业整体基本面相对平稳，但也呈现出一定结构性亮点，而在在当 前政策促消费预期逐步明朗背景下，也积蓄了较强的反弹势能。 2026 年两大主线展望：1）新消费产业趋势把握：2025 年初新消费行情表现 突出，在技术瓶颈、经济压力等背景下，叠加年轻群体消费心态变化，消费 品类呈现出了"低成本获取情绪价值"的特征，且相关新消费企业在 H 股密 集上市后也带动了板块交易热情，相关产业逻辑在 2026 年仍有延续性。但 随着后期相关企业增长驱动因素进一步捋清，行情预计将聚焦于具备长期投 资价值 ...

走进潮玩店，挑选新款盲盒挂件，然后逛逛饰品店，再去奶茶店购买一杯饮品，这不只是当代年轻人的娱乐路 子，也是基金经理周文波常常体验的日常之一。 对他来说，消费不是报表里的数字与一页页 ppt ，而是发生在街头巷尾、门店货架中的真实变化。 这种对新鲜事物的敏感，贯穿了周文波十多年的投研生涯。作为富国消费精选 30 的基金经理，他早早意识 到 Z 世代消费市场的潜力，在过去两年消费整体承压、估值回归的背景下，通过前瞻布局依然取得了相对 突出的表现，其在管产品近一年、近三年同类排名均位居第一。（指富国消费精选 30 ，排名来自银河证 券，截至 2025/11/30 ，同类指消费行业股票型基金 (A 类 ) 。） " 任何事情都有可能性，虽然 说消费很多是 ' 老登股 ' ，但 我们 心态不能 ' 老登 ' 。 " 周文波说道。 根据数据统计，周文波目前在管富国消费精选 30 ，截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日，规模达 34.26 亿。 A 类份 额近一年净值增长率为 36.20% ，同期业绩比较基准收益率 11.92% ，超额收益达 24.28% 。 「注：基金同类排名数据来自银河证券，规模、净值等数据来源基金三 ...

近日，A股市场迎来强劲上涨，沪深两大股指持续攀升，在权重股与热门板块的轮动带动下，指数上行获得有力支撑，众多跟踪大盘的基金产品也实现了显 著的净值增长。然而，在市场普遍向好的氛围中，华安基金旗下由知名基金经理陈媛管理的部分产品，其业绩表现却与市场整体走势出现明显背离。 最明显的当属成立于2020年12月11日的华安新兴消费混合A，发行期共募集62.68亿元，受到市场广泛关注，基金经理陈媛作为华安基金自主培养的消费投资 专家，也因其出色的业绩被称为"消费女神"。截至2026年1月9日，这只基金单位净值仅为0.6159元，自成立以来收益率为-38.41%，在同类基金中排名靠 后。 | 华安新兴消费混合A(010554) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 单位净值(2026-01-09) | 累计净值 | | | 0.6159 1.25% | 0.6159 | | | 近1月: 4.00% | 近3月: -6.48% | 近6月: 6.85% | | 近1年: 25.75% | 近3年: -15.96% | 成立来: -38.41% | | 类型：混合型-偏股 中高风险 | 规模：17.20亿 ...

Summary of the Food and Beverage Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is entering a pivotal year in 2026, characterized as a "starting point for a big year" with expectations for absolute returns across the sector [2][3] - The industry has seen a decline in valuations to reasonable levels, with performance being the core issue [3] Key Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Demand Trends**: Anticipated L-shaped recovery in consumer demand driven by the repair of household balance sheets and economic structural transformation [3] - **Traditional vs. New Consumption**: Both traditional and new consumption are expected to coexist, with traditional consumption showing signs of bottoming out and potential recovery [2][8] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Prioritize investments in frozen food companies, followed by the liquor sector [5] - Companies like Anjuke, Qianqianwei, and Sanquan in the frozen food sector are expected to optimize competition through B-end transformations [5] - High market share beer companies such as Yanjing and Zhujiang are seen as having good growth potential [5] New Consumption Opportunities - The new consumption sector is expected to benefit from structural dividends, with significant growth potential for companies like New Dairy and Yanjing Zhujiang [4][10] - New channels and product categories are anticipated to drive performance growth in beverages and snacks, even in the current economic environment [6][12] Liquor Industry Insights - The liquor sector, characterized by strong commercial barriers and high inventory accumulation, is expected to see improvements in Q1 2026 as inventory levels decrease [7] - The stability of liquor prices or an L-shaped trend is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity, with companies like Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Moutai being highlighted as good choices [7][9] Market Characteristics and Future Outlook - The future consumer market in China is expected to exhibit three main characteristics: large market size, high innovation in channels and categories, and a trend towards international expansion to address supply-demand imbalances [11] - Structural dividends are anticipated to arise from new channels, new product categories, and new markets [11] Specific Investment Targets - In the snack sector, companies with strong channel adjustment and category expansion capabilities, such as Weilong and Yanjin, are recommended [12] - In the beverage sector, functional drinks and sugar-free tea segments are highlighted, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu Spring expected to maintain leading growth [12] Strategic Recommendations - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes that the food and beverage sector is likely to rise, with a focus on performance recovery, particularly in the liquor sector [13] - The strategy includes holding traditional consumption while embracing new consumption, indicating a balanced approach to investment [14]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.34%, while the Hong Kong consumer sector showed slight recovery with the consumer ETF (513230) experiencing a minor increase [1] - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued a notification on December 14, proposing 11 policy measures to boost consumption across various sectors including goods, services, and new consumption [1] - Galaxy Securities noted a slight pullback in the food and beverage index in early December, attributing it to a minor slowdown in monthly sales data, influenced by the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities highlighted the growing significance of the ice and snow economy, which encompasses ice sports, tourism, equipment, and culture, as a new economic growth driver [2] - The ice and snow economy is characterized by a long industrial chain, significant diversion effects, and high social benefits, contributing to regional economic development and urban-rural integration [2] - The increasing popularity of ice sports and tourism in China is transforming "cold resources" into a "hot economy," leading to rapid growth in the ice industry [2] Group 3 - Related popular ETFs include: Tourism ETF (562510) benefiting from holiday catalysts and the ice and snow economy, Food and Beverage ETF (515170) aimed at boosting domestic demand in undervalued sectors, and Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) focusing on e-commerce leaders and new consumption [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations on December 2, with all three major indices closing lower. The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) saw a trading volume exceeding 150 million yuan, with several constituent stocks such as Xiwang Food, Babi Food, and Yanjing Beer rising [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in the high-end and sub-high-end liquor sectors, while also covering leading stocks in beverages, dairy, condiments, and beer. The top ten weighted stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1] - Fujian Province has recently formulated policies to support cross-strait integration development, including measures to assist Taiwanese residents in opening Shaxian snack stores [1] Group 2 - In November, the food and beverage index continued to recover, achieving excess returns compared to the broader market, driven by a shift in market style and a positive CPI growth rate. Within the sector, pre-processed foods, baked goods, and dairy products saw the highest increases [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the core view is that new consumption will remain sustainable but will experience internal rotation, while traditional consumption is expected to see bottom improvement [2] - Since early 2025, the food and beverage sector has significantly underperformed the broader market due to changes in the consumption environment and market style. However, the sector's fundamentals are at a low point, and the valuation has declined, indicating no need for pessimism. The expectation for 2026 is a recovery in the food and beverage industry, with hopes for resilient consumer spending and increased business activity [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the importance of building a strong domestic market and boosting consumption, which is increasingly influenced by demographic trends such as aging populations and new consumption patterns [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Market and Consumption - The focus on consumption has shifted from traditional definitions to considerations of aging demographics and emerging consumption trends [2]. - A comparison between China and Western countries shows that China's per capita consumption has surpassed that of Western nations [2]. - The example of the traditional liquor industry illustrates this shift: China's liquor consumption dropped from 15 million tons a decade ago to only 4 million tons now, indicating that relying solely on traditional consumption for growth is unrealistic [2]. - Future consumption stimulation strategies must align with the realities of an aging population and the changing habits of younger consumers [2].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector has shown significant upward momentum, with specific stocks reaching their daily limits and others experiencing notable gains, driven by market style shifts and positive CPI growth [1] Sector Performance - As of November, the food and beverage index has been recovering, outperforming the broader market due to a change in market style and a positive CPI growth rate [1] - Within the sector, pre-processed foods, baked goods, and dairy products have seen the highest increases [1] Investment Insights - Xiangcai Securities highlights that the current valuation of the sector is at historical lows, indicating potential for relative gains as market styles shift [1] - The report suggests focusing on opportunities for recovery and valuation repair following the release of fundamental pressures [1] - It emphasizes the importance of innovation in categories, channels, and consumption scenarios, while also recognizing opportunities in traditional consumption sectors that are actively seeking change and are undervalued [1] Strategic Recommendations - Two main investment lines are recommended: 1. Leading companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance [1] 2. Companies actively developing new products, channels, and scenarios to capture high-growth markets, particularly those with strategic foresight and execution capabilities [1]

Core Insights - The food and beverage index in early November showed a recovery, outperforming the broader market due to a shift in market style and a positive CPI growth rate [1][3] - The pre-processed food, baked goods, and dairy products sectors experienced the highest gains [1][3] - The konjac snack industry is expected to be highly prosperous in 2025, with a focus on the sustainability of this trend in 2026 [1] Group 1: Konjac Snack Industry - The konjac snack industry is projected to have strong growth in 2025, with companies like Salted Fish (002847) and Wei Long achieving significant revenue and stock price increases compared to the overall snack market [1] - The growth of konjac snacks is supported by health and taste trends, with potential for increased market penetration and innovation in "konjac+" products to attract new customers and boost repeat purchases [1] - The competitive landscape is favorable for leading companies, which are expected to maintain or increase market share through product innovation and supply chain capabilities [1] Group 2: Alcohol Industry Pricing - As of mid-November, the wholesale prices of Moutai have stabilized, with slight increases compared to the end of October, but still lower than the same period last year [2] - The prices of packaging materials have shown a mixed trend, with glass and PET prices decreasing, while aluminum and cardboard prices have increased [2] - Raw material prices for sugar, flour, palm oil, pork, and sunflower seeds have decreased year-on-year, while quail eggs and soybean prices have increased [2] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector Performance - From November 1 to November 17, the food and beverage sector rose by 2.6%, matching the excess return of the overall A-share index [3] - Nine out of ten sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry reported positive returns, with pre-processed foods, baked goods, and dairy products leading the gains at 9.4%, 7.6%, and 4.5% respectively [3]