Quantitative Factor and Model Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction 1. **Model Name**: GAN_GRU Model **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for generating realistic price-volume sequential features and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) for encoding these sequential features into predictive signals for stock selection [2][9]. **Model Construction Process**: - **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 price-volume features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate [10][13]. - Training data consists of the past 400 trading days' features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 feature matrix to predict the cumulative return over the next 20 trading days [14]. - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and standardization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels [14]. - The GRU network consists of two layers (GRU(128, 128)) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet) [18]. - **GAN Component**: - The generator (G) uses an LSTM model to preserve the sequential nature of the input features, while the discriminator (D) employs a CNN to process the two-dimensional price-volume feature "images" [29][32]. - The generator's loss function is: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability [20][21]. - The discriminator's loss function is: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data [23][25]. - Training alternates between updating the discriminator and generator parameters until convergence [26]. **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both sequential and cross-sectional price-volume features, leveraging the strengths of GANs and GRUs for stock selection [2][9][29]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU factor is derived from the GAN_GRU model's output, representing the encoded price-volume sequential features as a stock selection signal [2][9]. **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is derived from the predicted return (pRet) output of the GAN_GRU model [18]. - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, followed by standardization [18]. **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent performance in both IC and excess returns [36][40]. --- Model Backtest Results 1. **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.54% - **ICIR**: 0.89 - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83 - **Recent IC**: 8.34% - **1-Year IC Mean**: 11.09% - **Annualized Return**: 37.71% - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.95% - **IR**: 1.56 - **Max Drawdown**: 27.29% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 24.95% [36][37]. --- Factor Backtest Results 1. **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.54% - **ICIR**: 0.89 - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83 - **Recent IC**: 8.34% - **1-Year IC Mean**: 11.09% - **Annualized Return**: 37.71% - **Annualized Volatility**: 24.95% - **IR**: 1.56 - **Max Drawdown**: 27.29% - **Annualized Excess Return**: 24.95% [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.80 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the Xinjiang explosives market and has a unique position as the only ammonium nitrate producer in the region, which provides a significant competitive advantage [7][9]. - The report anticipates sustained high prices for explosives due to the growth of the Xinjiang coal industry, with projections indicating a potential market for blasting services exceeding 10 billion CNY by 2030 [7][9]. - Following the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda, the company is expected to see significant capacity injections and operational efficiency improvements, enhancing its growth prospects [7][9][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 6,101 million CNY, 6,619 million CNY, 7,302 million CNY, and 8,019 million CNY respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -13.1%, 8.5%, 10.3%, and 9.8% [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 668 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 1,080 million CNY by 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of -21.7%, 3.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6% [2]. - Earnings per share are expected to rise from 0.62 CNY in 2024A to 1.01 CNY in 2027E, with price-to-earnings ratios decreasing from 15x in 2024 to 9x in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain that includes upstream natural gas transportation, liquefaction, and deep processing, as well as downstream explosive products and blasting engineering services [18][25]. - The company’s explosive production capacity is projected to reach 119,500 tons by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 100% [35]. - The company’s ammonium nitrate production capacity is 660,000 tons per year, with a current utilization rate of approximately 68% [7][25]. Market Position - The company controls a significant portion of the explosive distribution in Northern Xinjiang, holding stakes in 11 out of 25 distribution companies in the region [17]. - The report highlights the expected stability in the market structure for mixed explosives, with the company positioned to benefit from the high demand driven by the coal industry [7][9]. Growth Drivers - The anticipated injection of at least 150,000 tons of explosive capacity from Guangdong Hongda over the next three years is expected to significantly enhance the company's growth trajectory [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for cost reductions in natural gas procurement, which could substantially increase profit margins [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.80 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in the Xinjiang explosives market, with a unique position as the only ammonium nitrate producer in the region. The report highlights the company's strong growth potential driven by the rising coal production in Xinjiang and the expected increase in explosive prices [7][9]. - The acquisition by Guangdong Hongda is expected to enhance production capacity and operational efficiency, providing significant growth opportunities for the company [7][9]. - The report forecasts profit expectations of 689 million CNY, 888 million CNY, and 1.08 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 11x, and 9x [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to be 6,101 million CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 13.1%. However, growth is expected to resume in subsequent years with increases of 8.5%, 10.3%, and 9.8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 668 million CNY in 2024, with a significant decline of 21.7%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 3.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6% in the following years [2]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.62 CNY in 2024 to 1.01 CNY in 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established a comprehensive industrial chain that includes upstream natural gas transportation, liquefaction, and deep processing, as well as downstream explosive products and blasting engineering services [18]. - The company’s explosive production capacity is expected to reach 119,500 tons by the end of 2024, with a utilization rate of 100% [35]. - The report emphasizes the scarcity of the company's ammonium nitrate production capacity, which is currently at 660,000 tons per year, with a utilization rate of approximately 68% [7][9]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a key player in the Xinjiang coal chemical industry, benefiting from the expected doubling of the local explosives market during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [12][24]. - The report notes that the company controls a significant portion of the explosive distribution in Northern Xinjiang, which positions it well to capitalize on the high demand for explosives in the region [17][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the mining explosives industry, highlighting ongoing mergers and acquisitions that are expected to enhance the scale and bargaining power of leading companies [4][5]. Core Insights - The mining explosives industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with leading enterprises expected to significantly increase their scale and bargaining power. The industry is characterized by high regulatory barriers and a low level of marketization, with ongoing government initiatives since 2000 aimed at supply-side reforms through mergers and restructuring [4][6]. - Demand for mining explosives is being driven by high mineral prices, with over 70% of demand coming from the mining sector. The integration of mining services and explosives is seen as a key growth strategy, with significant market potential remaining [7][8]. - Regions such as Xinjiang and Tibet, along with the Belt and Road Initiative, are expected to continue experiencing high demand for mining explosives due to their rich mineral resources and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Mining Explosives: Industry Structure Improvement and Capacity Integration - The mining explosives industry is heavily regulated, with a strict licensing system creating natural barriers to entry. The industry has a clear supply chain, with raw materials like ammonium nitrate being crucial for production [17][18]. - Government policies are driving industry consolidation, with expectations that the number of production enterprises will decrease to fewer than 50 by 2025, while the top 10 companies will account for over 60% of the industry's production value [23][24]. - The profit margins of mining explosives companies are expected to improve, with production value projected at 41.695 billion yuan in 2024, despite a year-on-year decline of 4.5% [31][36]. 2. Mining Services: A Key to Long-Term Growth - The mining services market is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan, with mining companies increasing capital expenditures significantly. The integration of mining services and explosives is seen as a critical growth driver [59][62]. - The report emphasizes that the penetration rate of mining services by explosives companies remains low, indicating substantial growth potential as the industry shifts towards integrated service models [59][62]. 3. Regional Insights and Opportunities - Xinjiang is becoming a new center for coal production, with a projected output of 540 million tons in 2024, benefiting the local mining explosives market [4][5]. - Tibet's rich hydropower resources and copper mining potential are highlighted as areas of significant growth, with expected high demand for mining explosives [4][5]. - The Belt and Road Initiative is opening up new opportunities for mining explosives companies, as domestic firms expand their operations overseas [4][5]. 4. Recommended Companies - Key companies to watch include Xuefeng Technology, Guangdong Hongda, Jiangnan Chemical, Yipuli, and Yahua Group, all of which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth and consolidation trends [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][11]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand in the Xinjiang civil explosives market, being the only producer of ammonium nitrate in the region, which provides both supply and licensing advantages [3][9]. - Following the acquisition by Guangdong Hongda, the company is expected to receive additional civil explosive capacity and optimized regional layout, leading to significant revenue and profit elasticity [3][9]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated to reach 750 million, 890 million, and 940 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][9]. Company Overview - The company operates in the civil explosives and chemical sectors, covering the entire civil explosives industry chain, including upstream natural gas transportation, LNG, and ammonium nitrate production, as well as downstream blasting engineering and mining services [6][20]. - The company was established in 1958 and has undergone several transformations, becoming a joint-stock company in 2011 [20][21]. Civil Explosives Sector - The civil explosives market in Xinjiang is experiencing rapid growth due to the release of coal production capacity, with the company benefiting from its comprehensive industry chain [7][54]. - The company has a production capacity of 119,500 tons of industrial explosives and is the only producer of ammonium nitrate in Xinjiang, with a capacity of 660,000 tons per year [7][22]. - The market share of leading companies in the civil explosives industry is increasing, with the CR10 rising from 44% in 2017 to 62% in 2024 [7][59]. Chemical Sector - The company has expanded its chemical production capabilities through the acquisition of Xinjiang Yuxiang HuYang Chemical Co., which includes products like compound fertilizers, melamine, and ammonium nitrate [8][24]. - By the end of 2024, the company’s production capacities for melamine, urea, nitro compound fertilizer, and ammonium nitrate are projected to reach 210,000, 600,000, 900,000, and 660,000 tons per year, respectively [8][25]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown fluctuations, with a significant increase in revenue from 2.61 billion yuan in 2021 to 6.90 billion yuan in 2022, followed by a decline in 2024 due to low prices of bulk chemicals [31][37]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.10 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 670 million yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year [31][41]. Market Dynamics - The demand for civil explosives is primarily driven by mining activities, with coal mining accounting for a significant portion of the demand [59][65]. - Xinjiang's coal production is expected to continue growing, supported by national policies and the region's rich coal resources, which will further drive the demand for civil explosives [69][73].

Core Viewpoint - Urumqi, as the capital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, is a strategic hub for the "Belt and Road" initiative and is focusing on building a modern industrial system through the "Industrial Strong City" strategy, emphasizing advanced manufacturing, modern services, and urban agriculture [1][4][15]. Group 1: Economic Performance - Urumqi's GDP for 2024 is projected to reach 450.216 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, surpassing the national average [4][5]. - The primary industry is expected to achieve an added value of 32.47 billion yuan, growing by 6.6%; the secondary industry is projected to reach 1,327.33 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.8%; and the tertiary industry is anticipated to add 3,142.36 billion yuan, growing by 3.3% [5][7]. Group 2: Industrial Development - Urumqi is implementing the "5+2" modern industrial system, focusing on energy and chemical, equipment manufacturing, new materials, biomedicine, and electronic information, along with emerging industries like new energy and environmental protection [15][17]. - The city has seen a significant increase in industrial investment, with 138 industrial projects attracting a total investment of 105.66 billion yuan, marking a 25.8% increase year-on-year [7][9]. Group 3: New Quality Productive Forces - The concept of "New Quality Productive Forces" emphasizes innovation-driven development, characterized by high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality production, aligning with the new development philosophy [2][3][11]. - Urumqi is actively responding to national strategies by implementing policies that encourage the development of modern agriculture, green energy, and cultural tourism, among others [11][12]. Group 4: Policy Framework - The Urumqi government has introduced several policies to support the growth of new industries, including financial incentives for high-tech enterprises and measures to promote the development of industrial parks [11][12]. - The "Western Region Encouraged Industry Directory" has added 57 new encouraged industry items for Xinjiang, covering modern agriculture, green energy, and textile industries, providing strong policy support for regional industrial upgrades [11][12]. Group 5: Future Trends - Urumqi is focusing on high-end manufacturing and new material clusters, aiming to create three trillion-level advanced manufacturing clusters by 2025 [28][29]. - The city is also building a future industry ecosystem driven by "three new" initiatives, including commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [30]. - Urumqi is committed to a green low-carbon transformation, with plans to increase the share of new energy installations to over 50% by 2025 [31].

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.20 CNY per share (before tax) for its A shares [1] - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to 214,338,537.80 CNY based on a total share capital of 1,071,692,689 shares [1] - Key dates include the record date on June 4, 2025, and the ex-dividend date on June 5, 2025 [1] Dividend Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan was approved by the company's shareholders meeting [1] - The cash dividend will be distributed to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the close of trading on the record date [1] Taxation Information - For individual shareholders holding unrestricted circulating shares, the actual cash dividend after tax is 0.18 CNY per share due to a 10% withholding tax [4][6] - Shareholders holding shares for less than one month will incur a 20% tax on the full dividend amount, while those holding for more than one month but less than one year will incur a 10% tax [3] - Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) will also receive a net dividend of 0.18 CNY per share after a 10% withholding tax [6]

证券代码：603227 证券简称：雪峰科技 公告编号：2025-028 新疆雪峰科技（集团）股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.20元（含税） 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/6/4 | － | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/5 | 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本1,071,692,689股为基数，每股派发 现金红利0.20元（含税），共计派发现金红利214,338,537.80元。 1 三、相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/6/4 | － | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/5 | 差异化分红送转： ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for increased demand in the construction materials sector, driven by various factors including government projects and rising prices in carbon fiber [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong operational resilience and high dividends, particularly in the consumer building materials segment [6] - The report suggests that domestic investment expectations are strengthening, with a focus on infrastructure and construction companies benefiting from increased demand [6][9] Summary by Sections Construction Materials - Beneficiaries include companies like Guangdong Hongda, Xuefeng Technology, and Guotai Group due to high demand in civil explosives and major projects like the Yarlung project entering the construction phase [1] - Carbon fiber price increases are noted, with companies such as Zhongfu Shenying and Jilin Chemical Fiber expected to benefit from emerging demand [1] - Companies with strong operational resilience and high dividends, such as Dongfang Yuhong and Weixing New Materials, are recommended for their potential to benefit from domestic consumption stimulus [1][6] Cement Market - The national average cement price is reported at 378.67 RMB/ton, with a decline of 1.1% week-on-week, particularly in regions like North China and East China [3][27] - Cement demand has shown slight recovery but remains 6-7% lower year-on-year, with supply pressures continuing to affect pricing [3][27] - Recommendations include leading cement companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, which are expected to benefit from domestic demand and industry self-discipline measures [6] Real Estate Market - The report indicates a short-term low overall market sentiment in the new and second-hand housing markets, with new housing transaction area down 12% year-on-year [2][22] - The report tracks transaction data across major cities, highlighting a mixed performance in the real estate sector [2][22] Emerging Opportunities - The report identifies opportunities in the domestic ship coating market, with companies like Maijia Xincai and Songji Co. expected to benefit from rising demand and domestic substitution trends [6][9] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seen as a catalyst for international engineering projects, with companies like China State Construction and China Metallurgical Group recommended for potential benefits [6][9]

新疆雪峰科技（集团）股份有限公司 关于参加新疆辖区上市公司 2025 年投资者 网上集体接待日活动的公告 证券代码：603227 证券简称：雪峰科技 公告编号：2025-027 本次活动将采用网络远程的方式举行，投资者可登录"全景路演"网站 （http://rs.p5w.net），或关注微信公众号：全景财经，或下载全景路演 APP，参与 本次互动交流，活动时间为 2025 年 5 月 23 日（周五）15:00-17:30。届时公司高 管将在线就公司 2024 年度业绩、公司治理、发展战略、经营状况、融资计划和 可持续发展等投资者关心的问题，与投资者进行沟通与交流，欢迎广大投资者踊 跃参与。 特此公告。 新疆雪峰科技（集团）股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 5 月 16 日 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 为进一步加强与投资者的互动交流，新疆雪峰科技（集团）股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"）将参加由新疆上市公司协会根据新疆证监局工作部署，联合深 圳市全景网络有限公司举办的"2025 年新疆辖区上市公司投资 ...