Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.608 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 8.45% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.241 billion yuan, down 19.13% year-on-year [1] - The company faced short-term disruptions affecting performance but demonstrated strong profit resilience and successful upstream expansion [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 15.608 billion yuan, down 8.45% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.241 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.13% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 1.154 billion yuan, down 4.44% year-on-year - Weighted average ROE decreased by 5.47 percentage points to 12.61% [1] Short-term Factors Impacting Performance - LPG transportation was affected by extreme weather, causing delays in ship arrivals and cross-period sales [2] - The acquisition of the Guangzhou Huakai receiving station incurred temporary costs due to tank maintenance, impacting pre-tax profit by approximately 82 million yuan [2] - Planned dock repairs for LPG vessels led to reduced service income and increased operational costs, affecting pre-tax profit by about 15 million yuan [2] - The company confirmed incentive expenses of 16.33 million yuan and financial expenses of 15.99 million yuan related to convertible bonds [2] Business Development and Growth Potential - LNG business showed strong resilience despite price pressures, with expectations of improved profitability in Q4 due to rising domestic natural gas prices [3] - The company implemented a dynamic operation system for LPG between Dongguan and Guangzhou, anticipating steady sales growth and profitability recovery in Q4 [3] - Ongoing projects include the Xinjiang coal-to-natural gas project and LNG factory, which are expected to provide sustained growth momentum [3] Asset Structure and Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.015 billion yuan, an increase of 24.04% year-on-year [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 32.31%, a decrease of 4.25 percentage points from December 31, 2024 [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains profit forecasts of 1.56 billion yuan, 1.8 billion yuan, and 2.13 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.4, 12.4, and 10.5 [4] - The company is actively expanding upstream quality gas sources and pursuing integrated layouts, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 35.50 CNY, maintaining the rating [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.608 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 8.45% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.241 billion CNY, down 19.13% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to extreme weather impacts and operational costs [1][2]. - The LNG business has shown resilience with steady growth in gross profit, while the LPG business is expected to see rapid profit growth due to improved operational conditions [2]. - The company plans to invest in a coal-to-gas project in Xinjiang, which will enhance its resource pool and fill the gap in equity gas resources [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.180 billion CNY, down 10.39% year-on-year, and a net profit of 380 million CNY, down 11.29% year-on-year. The decline was mainly due to weather-related disruptions and increased operational costs [1]. - The company expects revenues of 22.865 billion CNY, 25.180 billion CNY, and 27.138 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 3.7%, 10.1%, and 7.8% [10][11]. Business Development - The LNG business has maintained strong growth, with gross profit per ton increasing year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The LPG business is set to benefit from the completion of maintenance at the Guangzhou Huakai receiving station and improved operational conditions [2]. - The company is investing in a coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, with a total investment of 23.033 billion CNY, aiming to produce 5.5 billion cubic meters of gas annually, which will enhance its upstream resource diversity [3]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 22.36 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 22.31 billion CNY. The stock price as of October 28, 2025, is 32.16 CNY, with a 12-month price range of 23.5 to 35.32 CNY [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][24]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to occasional events, with a revenue of 15.608 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.13% to 1.241 billion yuan [5][24]. - The company plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in the second phase of the Xinjiang coal-to-gas project, which is expected to generate an average annual profit of 1.477 billion yuan and an internal rate of return of 8.20% [2][24]. - The company is expanding its resource pool with a focus on both marine and land gas, aiming to enhance its diversified resource system [2][24]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects net profits of 1.56 billion yuan, 1.96 billion yuan, and 2.16 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.5%, 25.9%, and 10.2% [24][26]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 26.566 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.9%, followed by a decline of 17.0% in 2024 [3][26]. - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 10.38%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.03%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points [9][13]. Project Development Summary - The second phase of the Xinjiang coal-to-gas project is currently in the detailed design phase and is expected to take three years to complete [2][24]. - The company is also enhancing its LNG and LPG supply chain capabilities, with new projects expected to improve service capacity in the southern China market [18][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5]. Core Views - The report highlights a steady growth in electricity consumption, with a total of 77,675 billion kWh from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the government's ongoing support for the green methanol industry, detailing various policies aimed at promoting its development [18][20]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.24%, while the public utility index increased by 1.08% and the environmental index by 1.44% [1][15]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power increased by 2.00%, hydropower by 0.23%, and renewable energy generation by 0.55% [1][15]. Important Events - In September, the industrial electricity generation reached 8,262 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2][16]. - The report notes a decline in thermal and wind power generation, while hydropower saw a significant increase of 31.9% [2][16]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and regional players like Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][9]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies will maintain stable profitability, recommending China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][9]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Huadian International is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.49 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 10.3 [9]. - Longyuan Power is also rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 0.76 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 22.9 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [5]. Core Views - The report highlights a stable growth in industrial electricity production, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% for the first nine months of the year [2][16]. - It emphasizes the government's ongoing support for the development of renewable energy, particularly in the green methanol sector, which is expected to benefit from various policy initiatives [4][18]. - The report notes that the overall electricity consumption for the first nine months reached 77,675 billion kWh, reflecting a growth of 4.6% year-on-year [3][17]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.24%, while the public utility index increased by 1.08% and the environmental index by 1.44% [1][15]. - Within the electricity sector, thermal power saw a 2.00% increase, hydropower rose by 0.23%, and renewable energy generation increased by 0.55% [1][15]. Important Events - In September, the industrial electricity generation was 826.2 billion kWh, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, with daily average generation at 27.54 billion kWh [2][16]. - The report indicates a shift in growth rates among different energy sources, with thermal power declining by 5.4% and solar power increasing by 21.1% [2][16]. Investment Strategy - Recommendations include major thermal power companies like Huadian International and regional players like Shanghai Electric, as well as leading renewable energy firms such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4]. - The report suggests that nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are expected to maintain stable profitability [4]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Huadian International: Outperform, last close at 5.26 CNY, market cap 61.1 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.49 CNY [9]. - Longyuan Power: Outperform, last close at 17.35 CNY, market cap 145.0 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.76 CNY [9]. - China Nuclear Power: Outperform, last close at 9.09 CNY, market cap 187.0 billion CNY, EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.43 CNY [9].

Market Overview - The gas sector experienced a decline of 1.35% on October 28, with Jiufeng Energy leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3988.22, down 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13430.1, down 0.44% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jiufeng Energy (code: 605090) saw a significant drop of 5.33%, closing at 32.16, with a trading volume of 148,800 shares and a transaction value of 484 million [2] - Other notable declines included ST Jinwan (down 4.02%), Shouhua Gas (down 3.72%), and Dazhong Public Utilities (down 3.55%) [2] - Conversely, Shengda Forestry (code: 002259) was one of the few gainers, increasing by 2.39% to close at 4.29 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The gas sector experienced a net outflow of 411 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 498 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Guo New Energy had a net inflow of 19.01 million from main funds, while ST Jinwan had a net outflow of 2.75 million [3] - Retail investors showed a positive net inflow in several stocks, including ST Jinwan and Meino Energy, despite overall sector outflows [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 37.40 [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.18 billion in Q3, showing a year-over-year decline of 10.4% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 380 million, down 11.3% year-over-year but up 7.2% quarter-over-quarter. The lower net profit was attributed to typhoon impacts and maintenance costs affecting pre-tax profits by approximately RMB 97 million [4][5] - The LNG business demonstrated resilience despite a relaxed market supply and price pressure, with gross margins improving year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. The company expects to benefit from long-term contracts and rising LNG prices due to anticipated cold weather [5] - The LPG business faced significant short-term disruptions but is expected to recover quickly in Q4, with operational improvements in the dynamic dual-storage system between Dongguan and Guangzhou [6] - The specialty gas business is focusing on commercial aerospace needs, becoming a core supplier for Hainan commercial launches, which is expected to contribute to profit growth [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 22,047 million, RMB 21,877 million, RMB 23,029 million, and RMB 24,504 million respectively, with a year-over-year decline of 17.01% in 2025E but a growth of 6.41% in 2027E [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 1,684 million in 2024, RMB 1,553 million in 2025E, RMB 1,790 million in 2026E, and RMB 2,051 million in 2027E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 7% over three years [8] - The company’s EPS is expected to be RMB 2.42 in 2024, RMB 2.23 in 2025E, RMB 2.58 in 2026E, and RMB 2.95 in 2027E [3][8] Valuation Adjustments - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reducing the net profit estimates by 10.3% for 2025E, 10.2% for 2026E, and 10.2% for 2027E, primarily due to lower LNG/LPG prices and asset disposal income [8] - The target price has been raised to RMB 37.4 from RMB 36.4, based on a revised valuation of 14.5x PE for 2026 [8]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 28 日 九丰能源（605090.SH） 极端天气及设施检修带来短期扰动，Q4 期待 LPG 业务 释放利润弹性 九丰能源发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营业收入 156.08 亿元，同比 -8.45%；归母净利润 12.41 亿元，同比-19.13%。 ❑ 业绩受短期因素扰动，长期成长逻辑不改。公司前三季度实现营业收入 156.08 亿元，同比-8.45%；归母净利润 12.41 亿元，同比-19.13%；其中，3Q25 实 现营业收入 51.8 亿元，同比-10.39%；归母净利润 3.8 亿元，同比-11.29%。 ❑ LNG 业务展现较强韧性，极端天气+储罐检修影响 LPG 利润。在天然气市场 供给宽松，价格整体下行的背景下，公司 LNG 吨毛利同比、环比（上半年） 进一步提升，终端用户销量保持基本稳定，带动 LNG 毛利稳步增长。受台风 "桦加沙""博罗依"等极端天气影响，公司 LPG 运输船舶期末不能顺利进 港。同时，偶发性 LPG 船期滞后形成跨期销售，进而影响 LPG 销售毛利。 此外，公司于 5 月收购的华凯接收站在 Q3 主要处 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Jiufeng Energy's stock price has dropped by 5.06%, currently trading at 32.25 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 22.422 billion CNY [1] - Jiufeng Energy, established on February 27, 2008, and listed on May 25, 2021, is primarily engaged in liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, and dimethyl ether (DME) [1] - The revenue composition of Jiufeng Energy includes: natural gas and operations 48.09%, liquefied petroleum gas 41.05%, other chemical products 7.49%, energy logistics and technical services 2.90%, special gases 0.46%, and others 0.01% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Xinyuan Fund has one fund heavily invested in Jiufeng Energy, specifically Xinyuan Industry Rotation A (005949), which held 57,500 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 2.73% of the fund's net value [2] - The estimated floating loss for Xinyuan Industry Rotation A today is approximately 98,900 CNY [2] - Xinyuan Industry Rotation A was established on May 31, 2018, with a current scale of 5.9272 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 11.64% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expanding its resource pool by planning to invest in a coal-to-gas project, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge and profitability [4]. - The company's three main businesses are developing rapidly, and the synergy among them is significant, leading to increasing competitive barriers [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.241 billion yuan, down 19.13% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.154 billion yuan, a decline of 4.44% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 5.180 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.39%, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 11.29% year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - LNG operations are stable, with a domestic average ex-factory price of 4,222 yuan/ton in Q3 2025, down 13.94% year-on-year. Despite a decrease in LNG spot trading volume, terminal user sales remained stable [3]. - The LPG segment is expected to see increased volume due to the completion of maintenance at the Guangzhou Huakai receiving station and the end of extreme weather impacts [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in a coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang, which is projected to produce 4 billion cubic meters of gas annually, with an expected annual profit of approximately 1.477 billion yuan and an internal rate of return of 8.2% [4]. - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.730 billion yuan, 1.989 billion yuan, and 2.271 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.49 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 3.27 yuan [4][6].